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OSHKOSH CORP (OSK)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue rose 6.3% year over year to $2.62B; adjusted EPS was $2.58, essentially flat vs Q4 2023, while operating margin stepped down sequentially on Defense catch-up adjustments and Access price/cost .
  • Vocational delivered another standout quarter: sales +19.8% to $880.6M and adjusted operating margin 14.0%, driven by improved price/cost and higher volume; municipal fire, airport products and refuse were key contributors .
  • Management initiated 2025 guidance: GAAP EPS ~$10.30, adjusted EPS ~$11.00, and expects ~$10.6B sales; the call provided segment targets and reiterated NGDV ramp to full rate by YE25, supporting 2026 growth visibility .
  • Near-term catalyst: execution on NGDV ramp and resilience in Vocational amid Access softness; risk watch: tariff and macro exposure (private nonresidential construction), and Defense program mix/CCAs .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Vocational strength: revenue +19.8% to $880.6M and adjusted operating margin of 14.0%, supported by improved price/cost and volume momentum across fire, airport and refuse .
  • NGDV progress and customer feedback: “We are pleased with early feedback… and look forward to ramping… to full rate production this year” (USPS NGDV) .
  • Access resilience: despite moderating demand, Q4 adjusted operating margin of 13.1% with contribution from AUSA; management highlighted long-term demand drivers (mega-projects, data centers) .

What Went Wrong

  • Defense headwind: operating income fell to $15.0M (2.7% margin) on unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments and mix, vs $62.1M (11.1%) in Q4 2023 .
  • Access margins compressed: operating margin down to 12.4% vs 14.1% prior year on unfavorable price/cost, though partially offset by mix .
  • Higher interest expense: net interest expense rose to $29.1M in Q4, up $8.3M YOY, pressuring EPS despite higher operating income .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.47 $2.74 $2.62
Diluted EPS ($)$2.28 $2.75 $2.33
Adjusted EPS ($)$2.56 $2.93 $2.58
Operating Margin (%)8.7% 9.7% 8.5%
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)9.7% 10.3% 9.4%

Segment breakdown (sales and operating income):

SegmentQ4 2023 Sales ($MM)Q3 2024 Sales ($MM)Q4 2024 Sales ($MM)Q4 2023 OI ($MM)Q3 2024 OI ($MM)Q4 2024 OI ($MM)
Access$1,150.3 $1,363.3 $1,157.0 $162.2 $207.9 $142.9
Vocational$735.3 $814.2 $880.6 $44.4 $99.6 $110.9
Defense$560.5 $540.4 $559.1 $62.1 $11.2 $15.0
Corporate & Other$20.7 $23.5 $26.7 $(53.3) $(52.5) $(44.9)

KPIs and balance items:

KPIDec 31, 2023Sep 30, 2024Dec 31, 2024
Period-end backlog – Access ($MM)$4,527.7 $2,132.9 $1,832.2
Period-end backlog – Vocational ($MM)$5,464.2 $5,911.9 $6,318.1
Period-end backlog – Defense ($MM)$6,710.7 $6,212.0 $6,040.7
Dividend per share (quarterly)$0.46 (Q4 declared) $0.46 (Q3 paid) $0.51 (Q4 declared)
Share repurchases (Qtr)—494k shares $50.4M in Q4 2024? (See Q4 release) —494,069 shares repurchased for $50.4M in Q4 2024
Effective tax rate (Qtr)22.6% 23.8% 22.7%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
GAAP EPSFY 2024$10.45 (Q2 update) ~$10.00 (Q3 update) Lowered
Adjusted EPSFY 2024$11.75 (Q2 update) ~$11.35 (Q3 update) Lowered
DividendQuarterly$0.46 (Q3) $0.51 (Q4) Raised
GAAP EPSFY 2025—~$10.30 New
Adjusted EPSFY 2025—~$11.00 New
Sales (Consolidated)FY 2025—~$10.6B New
Segment Sales/Adj OI MarginFY 2025—Access: ~$4.4B, ~13%; Vocational: ~$3.8B, ~15%; Defense: ~$2.3B, ~4% New
CapExFY 2025—~$250M New
Free Cash FlowFY 2025—~$300–$400M New
Q1 EPS (Adj)Q1 2025—~$2.00 New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
AI/Technology initiativesHighlighted ClearSky, electrification & autonomy; NGDV low-rate production began ClearSky platform; AUSA and electric telehandler; electrified/connected AeroTech portfolio CES showcase (HARR‑E autonomous refuse concept); 100k+ connected assets on ClearSky Improving adoption
Supply chain / TariffsGeneral inflation & input risk; price/cost progress Backlog health; Access normalization Ability to mitigate tariffs by shifting production footprint; EU tariffs impact noted Manageable but fluid
Macro / ConstructionPositive outlook, Access 2025 sales “range of 2024” Softness in private nonresidential construction; seasonality normalization Moderating demand early 2025; H2 improvement expected Softening near-term
Product performanceVocational strong; AeroTech integration Vocational backlog growing; Access resilience; NGDV ramp Vocational strength sustained; Access margins resilient; NGDV ramp to full rate by YE25 Positive
Defense programsFHTV extension; FMTV extension expected; NGDV ramp Path to normalized margins by 2026 with pricing resets & NGDV 2025 Defense margin avg ~4%, ramping through year; NGDV accretive Improving through 2025
Regional trendsBroad demand; airport growth Airport growth (IATA +8.6%); AeroTech strong IATA +8.1% Nov; AeroTech growth >9% YOY Sustained

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered another strong quarter… We are initiating our adjusted earnings per share expectations for 2025 of approximately $11.00… [and] announcing a quarterly cash dividend of $0.51 per share” — John Pfeifer, CEO .
  • “We expect to increase our NGDV production rates throughout the year and achieve full rate production by the end of 2025” — CEO .
  • “We now have over 100,000 connected assets as part of [ClearSky Smart Fleet]… one of the world’s largest fleets of connected equipment on the job site” — CEO .
  • “We are an American manufacturer… we can mitigate tariffs by adjusting our global footprint” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Access demand cadence: more pronounced weakness in H1 2025 with expected H2 improvement; backlog remains healthy (seasonality normalizing) .
  • Defense margin trajectory: guided ~4% average in 2025, ramping through the year with NGDV accretive; normalized margins expected by 2026 with pricing resets on FHTV/FMTV .
  • NGDV mix and ramp: “business as usual” mix of ICE/BEV; full-rate production by YE25; USPS delighted with vehicles .
  • Vocational pricing/backlog: strong double-digit price realization embedded; book-to-bill >1 at Pierce; throughput investments continue .
  • Telehandlers: capacity expansion at Jefferson City continues; share gains and agricultural telehandler offering (AUSA) support demand .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus EPS and revenue estimates from S&P Global were unavailable due to data access limits at the time of this analysis (SPGI daily request limit exceeded). As a result, explicit vs-consensus comparisons cannot be provided for Q4 2024, Q3 2024, and Q2 2024 at this time.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Vocational is the near-term profit center: sustained revenue growth and mid-teens adjusted margins with growing backlog underpin cash flow and EPS resilience .
  • Access softness appears cyclical and concentrated in private nonresidential construction; management expects H2 2025 improvement while delivering double-digit margins through cost discipline and mix .
  • NGDV ramp is a multiyear growth driver: reaching full-rate production by YE25 should offset Defense JLTV wind-down and support 2026 revenue/margin normalization in Defense .
  • 2025 setup: consolidated sales ~$10.6B and adjusted EPS $11, with segment guidance pointing to healthy Vocational and accretive NGDV; Q1 expected to be seasonally weakest ($2 adjusted EPS) .
  • Dividend raised to $0.51 reflects confidence in cash generation; continued buybacks (494k shares in Q4) add EPS support amid macro variability .
  • Watch risks: tariff/regulatory changes, Defense CCAs timing, Access price/cost and order seasonality (particularly with independents vs nationals) .
  • Trading lens: near-term moves likely tied to NGDV ramp milestones and Access order cadence; any incremental tariff headlines or Defense contract pricing updates could drive volatility .