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    Otis Worldwide (OTIS)

    OTIS Q2 2025: NA Equipment Orders +15% & Service Backlog +8%

    Reported on Jul 23, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$100.99Last close (Jul 22, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$89.00Open (Jul 23, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-11.99(-11.87%)
    • Robust Service Growth: Q&A participants emphasized that repair orders have rebounded significantly—from 1% in Q1 to 6% in Q2—with an 8% increase in repair backlog. This robust performance, combined with steady portfolio growth and improved pricing, suggests the service business is gaining momentum.
    • Resilient North American New Equipment Orders: Executives highlighted that North American new equipment orders were up 15% this quarter and that the backlog improved by 5%, indicating strong demand conversion in a region that represents a core portion of their business.
    • Effective Cost-Saving Initiatives and China Transformation: Management detailed progress on cost reduction measures, notably raising the China transformation run rate savings target from $30 million to $40 million, which supports higher margins and positions the company well for future competitive advantages.
    • Weakness in China's New Equipment Market: Persistent softness with new equipment orders in China declining by more than 20% and a weakening backlog could continue to drag global performance, as highlighted in responses discussing China’s low growth and production challenges.
    • Operational and Execution Delays: Temporary production facility furloughs in North America and China signal potential execution delays that may affect the timely conversion of orders into revenue, as noted by management during the Q&A.
    • Tariff Headwinds and Margin Pressure: The estimated $25–35 million negative impact from tariffs, combined with challenging market mix and lower pricing in certain regions, may put further pressure on margins despite cost-cutting initiatives, as discussed in the earnings Q&A.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Net Sales (Q1 2024)

    +2.7%

    Organic growth in the Service segment (up 6.5%, with maintenance and repair up 5.8% and modernization up 9.7%) drove overall net sales higher, while a -1.2% impact from foreign currency and a 0.5% decline in the New Equipment segment partially offset these gains.

    Net Sales (Q1 2025)

    -3%

    A 3% decline was driven by a -3% impact from foreign currency translation coupled with a steep 9% drop in the New Equipment segment—exacerbated by a >20% decline in China and a high single-digit decline in the Americas—despite a modest 1% (4% organically) increase in the Service segment.

    Operating Cash Flow (Q1 2024)

    Decrease from $278M to $171M (-$107M)

    Operating cash flow dropped by $107M due to adverse working capital movements—increased accounts receivable and reduced accounts payable and accrued liabilities—which more than offset an improvement in net income (from $352M to $374M).

    Operating Cash Flow (Q1 2025)

    Increase in net cash provided despite a net income drop

    Despite a fall in net income from $374M to $256M, favorable working capital changes—such as increased accrued liabilities and a smaller rise in accounts receivable—boosted operating cash flow, even as larger decreases in accounts payable and higher UpLift-related payments influenced the overall cash flow dynamics.

    Balance Sheet Items (Q1 2024)

    Multiple changes across items

    Key balance sheet shifts include a significant drop in cash (from $1,274M to $884M) driven by financing outflows (repurchases and dividends), an increase in accounts receivable due to billing timing, a decrease in accounts payable and accrued liabilities, and a rise in contract liabilities from customer advances, along with increased treasury stock from share repurchases.

    Balance Sheet Items (Q1 2025)

    Multiple changes across items

    In Q1 2025, cash decreased from $2,300M to $1,918M—again reflecting repurchase and dividend-related outflows—with modest increases in accounts receivable and contract liabilities, further declines in accounts payable, and adjustments in goodwill and treasury stock tied to acquisitions and foreign exchange impacts, while accumulated deficit improved slightly.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Net Sales

    FY 2025

    $14.6B to $14.8B

    $14.5B to $14.6B

    lowered

    Organic Sales Growth

    FY 2025

    2% to 4%

    ≈1%

    lowered

    Adjusted Operating Profit

    FY 2025

    $2.4B to $2.5B

    $2.4B to $2.5B

    no change

    Adjusted Free Cash Flow

    FY 2025

    ≈$1.6B

    $1.4B to $1.5B

    lowered

    Share Repurchase Target

    FY 2025

    $800M

    $800M

    no change

    Tariff Impact

    FY 2025

    –$45M to –$75M

    –$25M to –$35M

    raised

    Service Organic Sales Growth

    FY 2025

    5% to 7%

    ≈5%

    lowered

    New Equipment Organic Sales Growth

    FY 2025

    Decline 1% to 4%

    Decline ≈7%

    lowered

    Modernization Organic Sales Growth

    FY 2025

    Low teens

    ≈10%

    lowered

    Adjusted EPS

    FY 2025

    $4 to $4.10

    $4.00 to $4.10

    no change

    Adjusted Operating Margin

    FY 2025

    50 bps (excl. tariffs)

    30 bps

    lowered

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Service Segment Growth and Performance

    Q1 2025: Emphasized steady 4% organic growth, margin expansion, and renewed focus on service excellence. Q4 2024: Reported strong organic sales (7.8%), robust maintenance/repair growth, and accelerating modernization. Q3 2024: Continued emphasis on high organic growth (7.7%) and robust repair/moderization performance.

    Q2 2025: Highlighted solid performance with 4% organic service sales growth, 22% acceleration in modernization orders, and continued portfolio expansion across regions.

    Recurring emphasis: Consistent focus on service strength and margin expansion, though Q2’s growth percentages are more moderate compared to peak growth in previous periods.

    New Equipment Orders Trends and Regional Disparities

    Q1 2025: Discussed regional disparities with Americas and APAC (excluding China) growing while China declined over 20%. Q4 2024: Noted global order decline (–4% globally, improvement outside China) with Americas and Asia Pacific showing positive gains. Q3 2024: Emphasized lower orders overall with strong growth in the Americas and mixed performance in EMEA and APAC.

    Q2 2025: Reported an overall 1% decline in new equipment orders driven by China’s weakness; Americas and Asia Pacific (excluding China) continued to show robust regional performance with North America up in the mid-teens.

    Persistent theme: Ongoing challenges in China with strength in other regions; overall, a mixed picture with regional disparities continuing to drive performance.

    China Market Challenges, Transformation, and Restructuring

    Q1 2025: Highlighted a 15% decline in China, pricing pressures, and a strategic shift toward service with a comprehensive transformation program. Q4 2024: Detailed a 35% decline from historical peaks, consolidation of operations, and targeted cost savings with restructuring. Q3 2024: Noted market weakness with significant volume declines and competitive pricing pressures.

    Q2 2025: Reiterated persistent challenges with a 15% decline in the new equipment market, ongoing liquidity and pricing pressures, and an increased cost savings target (raised to $40 million run rate) as part of China transformation initiatives.

    Consistent challenge: Persistent Chinese market headwinds continue to drive transformation efforts with incremental increases in cost-saving targets and restructuring.

    Order Backlog Strength and Future Revenue Pipeline

    Q1 2025: Reported a relatively flat combined backlog with healthy modernization growth (+12%) and strong service backlog conversion. Q4 2024: Emphasized a decline in new equipment backlog (–4%) but a healthy 13% increase in modernization backlog and service portfolio growth. Q3 2024: Highlighted solid modernization backlog gains and strong regional contributions outside China.

    Q2 2025: Noted that while the combined new equipment and modernization backlog remained nearly flat, modernization orders surged 22% and service portfolio grew across regions, indicating a robust future revenue pipeline.

    Optimistic continuity: The modernization segment and service pipeline remain strong, offsetting softness in new equipment backlog, suggesting a positive outlook overall.

    Tariff Headwinds and Mitigation Strategies

    Q1 2025: Detailed significant tariff impacts ($100M annualized) affecting margins, with mitigation via supply chain shifts, contract adjustments, and price increases. (Q3 and Q4 2024: No information provided.)

    Q2 2025: Revised tariff exposure downward to $25–35 million (with minimal current impact), with mitigation via adjusted contract terms, cost-savings initiatives (uplift and China transformation), and lower expected margin pressure in H2.

    Evolving narrative: While tariffs remained a concern in Q1, revised guidance and active mitigation strategies in Q2 reflect a more managed and lower impact scenario.

    Operational and Execution Risks

    Q1 2025: Indirect mentions through challenges with tariff impacts, project delays, China transformation execution, and repair backlog issues. Q3 2024: Acknowledged headwinds from volume/mix effects, particularly in China, impacting margins and execution. Q4 2024: Related operational challenges noted in transformation and backlog conversion.

    Q2 2025: No explicit discussion of operational and execution risks, with the focus primarily on financial performance and strategic initiatives [N/A].

    Less emphasized: Previously noted execution risks are less explicitly mentioned in Q2, suggesting either improved confidence or a shift in focus.

    Workforce Investments and Transformation Initiatives

    Q1 2025: Emphasized investments in service excellence, adding field professionals, and robust China transformation with significant cost savings targets (e.g., $90M in–year savings). Q4 2024: Focused on expanding the field workforce with 2,000 new hires (a 5% increase) and comprehensive China restructuring and the global uplift program. Q3 2024: No specific mention provided.

    Q2 2025: Continued efforts in China transformation with consolidation of operations and an increased cost savings target ($40M run rate) coupled with progress on the global uplift program and targeted workforce adjustments (temporary furloughs).

    Steady focus: Workforce investments and transformation initiatives remain central, with continual enhancements in China and cost-savings efforts evolving over time.

    Margin Pressure and Pricing Challenges

    Q1 2025: Noted margin pressure from tariff impacts and soft new equipment prices in China along with a disciplined pricing strategy; overall, margins were expected to expand less due to these headwinds. Q4 2024: Addressed mixed margin pressure—service margins under short‐term pressure from workforce investments but overall expansion, while new equipment margins suffered from lower volumes and regional mix issues. Q3 2024: Cited severe pricing pressure in China (approx. 10% decline) and efforts to offset this with productivity and uplift programs.

    Q2 2025: Reported continued margin pressure in new equipment with a decline of 240 basis points to 5.3%, balanced partly by favorable service pricing gains; pricing challenges persist with cost pressures and regional mix effects.

    Persistent concern: Price and margin pressures remain a recurring challenge, particularly in new equipment, though service pricing shows resilience.

    Regional Mix Shifts in New Equipment Sales

    Q1 2025: Discussed varied regional performance—with Americas declining due to backlog processing, APAC growing around 10%, EMEA up modestly, and China down >20%. Q4 2024: Highlighted a >20% decline in China with overall new equipment sales down 6.8%, leaving other regions to partially offset the decline. Q3 2024: Emphasized a significant shift with China contributing only about 13% of total revenue while the rest of the world accounted for over 75%.

    Q2 2025: Reported an overall 11% decline in new equipment organic sales; EMEA grew by 7% (primarily driven by the Middle East), while declines in China (>20%), Americas, and low-single-digit decline in Asia Pacific underscore an ongoing regional shift.

    Continuing shift: Persistent weakness in China drives a heavier reliance on other regions; the trend of shifting regional revenue mix remains central.

    1. Service Retention
      Q: Why is service organic growth limited despite higher units and pricing?
      A: Management explained that although units grew 4% and service pricing improved by 3%, organic revenue grew the same 4% due to a mix and churn effect from less mature markets—particularly in China—even as retention actually improved slightly.

    2. Americas & China Orders
      Q: How are Americas and China equipment orders faring?
      A: They noted that in the Americas, new equipment orders were strong—up 15%—while in China, orders declined about 15% in new equipment, with expectations that China will stabilize later, reflecting varying market dynamics.

    3. China Savings
      Q: What’s the impact of China transformation savings?
      A: Management increased their run rate savings target in China from $30M to $40M due to extra cost-cutting measures, which is expected to produce incremental benefits into 2026 as part of broader cost-mitigation efforts.

    4. Free Cash Flow
      Q: Any change in free cash flow timing or conversion?
      A: They stated that free cash flow in the second half should mirror last year’s levels, with a temporary drag from a shift toward service revenue, which collects later, while favorable working capital in new equipment keeps conversion strong.

    5. Backlog Outlook
      Q: What does global backlog indicate for next year?
      A: Management highlighted that while Americas and Asia Pacific show robust, even double-digit backlog growth, China’s new equipment backlog remains soft; nonetheless, overall improvements across regions are expected to support future revenue.

    6. Margin Dynamics
      Q: Is the service mix improving margins in H2?
      A: They indicated that despite a $25M–$35M tariff headwind, margins in the second half are set to benefit from a stronger repair segment and modernization mix, with cost initiatives and improved business mix driving a 30 bps margin expansion overall.

    7. Furlough & Order Trends
      Q: How long are furloughs and what are near-term order expectations?
      A: Management clarified that furloughs in new equipment regions are temporary—lasting just a few weeks—and that they expect continued strong modernization order momentum along with a stabilization in overall order activity as market conditions improve.

    Research analysts covering Otis Worldwide.