Oxford Industries - Q1 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Greetings. Welcome to Oxford Industries, Inc. First Quarter Fiscal 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. I'll now turn the conference over to your host, Brian Smith of Oxford Industries, Inc. You may begin.

Brian Smith (Head of Corporate Controls and Financial Reporting)

Thank you, and good afternoon. Before we begin, I would like to remind participants that certain statements made on today's call and in the Q&A session may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities Laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results of operations or financial condition to differ are discussed in our press release issued earlier today and in documents filed by us with the SEC, including the risk factors contained in our Form 10-K. We undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements. During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in our press release issued earlier today, which is posted under the Investor Relations tab of our website at oxfordinc.com.

Now I'd like to introduce today's call participants. With me today are Tom Chubb, Chairman and CEO, and Scott Grassmyer, CFO and COO. Thank you for your attention, and now I'd like to turn the call over to Tom Chubb.

Tom Chubb (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Thank you, Brian. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. I'm going to start with an update on the execution of our plan for the Q1 of fiscal 2024 and our current expectations for the balance of the year. Our strong brands and our excellent team focused on executing our strategy allowed us to deliver sales and adjusted EPS within our guidance ranges for the Q1, despite continued macroeconomic headwinds and lower levels of consumer sentiment. While most economic indicators remain fairly positive, consumer sentiment has dropped meaningfully from levels at the start of this year and has driven the consumer to become more cautious than originally anticipated in our spending on discretionary items such as the fashion resort apparel, which is the core of our business. Net sales were down $22 million, or 5%, as compared to the Q1 of fiscal 2023.

The majority of the decline in net sales is attributable to a $17 million year-over-year decline in wholesale sales for the Q1, which we anticipated as we left a very robust Q1 of fiscal 2023. Our position with our key retail partners remains very strong, and our sell-through performance remains excellent. However, most of them, in response to muted consumer sentiment and the attendant lackluster demand, were very cautious in their inventory purchases for spring and summer of this year, and that shows up in our Q1 sales numbers. Looking forward, thanks to our continued strong performance with our key partners, our forward order book is solid, and we expect to make up about half of the Q1 shortfall in wholesale over the remaining three quarters of the year.

The second factor in our sales decline was the change in promotional cadence and events in our Lilly Pulitzer brand that we outlined in March. The net effect of these changes is that while Q1 sales for Lilly were down on a year-over-year basis, we expect Q2 sales to be significantly higher than last year for Lilly Pulitzer. The third factor contributing to our year-over-year sales decline was a 7% negative comp in our direct-to-consumer businesses as we continue to see a consumer that is more cautious in her spending than she was 18 to 24 months ago. Recall that in last year's Q1, we posted a double-digit positive comp. Interest in our brands remains high, with double-digit growth in traffic offset by a decline in conversion, resulting in negative comps reflective of consumer caution.

As we look forward to the balance of the year, encouragingly, our Q2-to-date comps have rebounded compared to the Q1, are positive to last year, and have sequentially improved. While this gives us reason to be optimistic, based on the dip in consumer sentiment and continued choppy market, we are moderating our comp assumption for the balance of the year. Despite these challenges, we still expect top-line growth in all our brands, growth in all direct-to-consumer channels of distribution, and positive comps for the full year. We also expect a strong 2024 from a cash flow perspective and will continue to execute on the fundamentals of our long-term strategy, including investing in the future of our business. These investments will provide the ability to continue to deliver profitable growth and strong cash flow on a sustained basis. Compelling, differentiated product is always at the forefront of our strategy.

We continue to evoke happiness in our customers with beautiful and unique products like our Artist Series items in Tommy Bahama. Each year, we celebrate a new group of artists with a limited collection that honors all the island life has to offer. For our 2024 Artist Series, we selected seven artists from across the globe and asked them to create custom artwork that shows what Tommy Bahama is all about. The resulting shirts, dresses, and other pieces delight tried-and-true Tommy Bahama aficionados by giving them truly special pieces and also bring new customers into the brand by captivating them with the artistry of the pieces and the amazing stories of the artists behind them. Another great example is the very elevated 65th anniversary Lilly Pulitzer capsule collection that we offered earlier in the year.

This capsule was a massive hit with our customers, and the commercial success that we had has opened the door to additional opportunity for us to grow the business by expanding our line in the future to include a range of more elevated product that commands higher prices. Investing in future growth is also critical to our long-term strategy, and we are continuing with our plans to open stores in Marlin Bar this year. During the quarter, we opened seven new stores, including two at Tommy Bahama, one of which is a new Marlin Bar, three at Johnny Was, and one each at Southern Tide and the Beaufort Bonnet Company. These new locations extend our reach and allow us to serve more customers with our beautiful stores and our exceptional in-store experience.

For the balance of the year, we expect to open 4 more Tommy Bahama Marlin Bars and 15-20 more stores spread across the brands. These openings set us up well for top-line growth in 2025 and beyond. In addition, we are making excellent progress on rebalancing our distribution capacity between the Eastern Seaboard and the West Coast. Going into the year, we had excess West Coast capacity and insufficient East Coast capacity to serve all the current and future needs that we have on the Eastern Seaboard. We have exited some West Coast capacity, which will save us money, and are hard at work on building our new distribution facility in Georgia, which will allow us to better serve and grow a very robust base of business that we serve in the eastern and southeastern part of the country.

Upon completion, we will be in much better position to serve current needs and support future growth, all at a highly competitive distribution cost. While we navigate a less robust consumer market, we remain focused on the long term and ensuring that we are in position to drive sustained, profitable growth. As always, we are incredibly grateful to our amazing people for all that they do to help us succeed. Thanks for your attention. Now I will turn the call over to Scott for additional detail. Scott?

Scott Grassmyer (EVP, CFO and COO)

Thank you, Tom. We closed the Q1 of fiscal 2024 with top and bottom-line results within our guidance range. Despite the uncertain macroenvironment affecting all channels of distribution, as referenced by Tom, and going against wholesale growth and positive direct-to-consumer comps of 10% in the Q1 of 2023, our team is focused on executing against our strategies and delivering for our shareholders. In the Q1 of fiscal 2024, consolidated net sales decreased 5% to $398 million. The Q1 of 2024 net sales includes decreases in most of our full-price channels, with decreases of $17 million, or 16%, as we expected in an especially difficult wholesale channel, $6 million, or 5%, in e-commerce sales, $3 million, or 2%, in full-price brick-and-mortar retail. A bright spot continues to be our food and beverage business that delivered strong growth of 8%.

Additionally, we had increased sales in our outlets of 6% that benefited from consumers looking for deals and promotions. In connection with consumers looking for deals and promotions, adjusted gross margin contracted 40 basis points to 65.4%, driven by a higher proportion of net sales occurring during promotional events across Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, and Johnny Was. The decrease in adjusted gross margin caused by the promotional environment was partially offset by lower inventory markdowns in our emerging brands group, and a change in sales mix with wholesale sales representing a lower proportion of total sales during the Q1 of 2024. Adjusted SG&A expenses increased 5% to $210 million, compared to $200 million last year.

During the Q1 of 2024, we incurred higher expenses related to recent and ongoing investments in our business, primarily from the addition of 27 new brick-and-mortar locations opened since the Q1 of last year, and the addition of the Jack Rogers brand acquired in the Q4 of fiscal 2023. We have also begun to incur costs on several of the approximate 15-20 additional brick-and-mortar locations, including 4 Marlin Bar locations that we expect to open during the remainder of the fiscal year. We also saw a modest increase in adjusted royalty income from the Tommy Bahama Miramonte Resort and Spa. The result of this yielded $57 million of adjusted operating income, or a 14.4% operating margin, compared to $83 million, or 19.8%, in the prior year.

The decrease in adjusted operating margin or operating income reflects the SG&A investments amidst a challenging consumer environment for sales and gross margins. Moving beyond operating income, we also saw a modest increase in our effective tax rate, which is offset by lower interest expense from our continued pay down of debt. With all of this, we achieved $2.60 of adjusted earnings per share. I'll now move on to our balance sheet, beginning with inventory. During the Q1 of fiscal 2024, we were able to decrease inventory by 10%, or $26 million year-over-year, on a FIFO basis. The decrease in inventories resulted from our continued inventory discipline, as well as the reduction of incremental inventory previously built into our supply chains to mitigate potential disruptions that have largely abated. From a liquidity standpoint, we continue to use our robust cash flows to repay our outstanding debt.

We finished the Q1 of fiscal 2024 with $19 million of borrowings under our revolving credit facility, down $10 million from $29 million of borrowings at the end of fiscal 2023, and a $76 million reduction versus the Q1 of 2023. Our $33 million of cash flow from operations in the Q1 of fiscal 2024 allowed us to reduce outstanding debt, also funding $12 million of capital expenditures and $11 million of dividends. I'll now spend some time on our outlook for 2024. After negative comps of 7% for the Q1 of 2024, our comp sales figures for the Q2 to date are positive as we start to anniversary the more cautious consumer environment that we began to experience midway through the Q1 of the prior year.

We believe the positive comp trend will continue throughout the remainder of the year and will result in positive comps for the full year, including comps in the mid-single-digit range for the Q2 and back half of the year as we enter a period of going against negative comps in the prior year. The assumptions are more modest than our original expectations from March, and we have revised our sales forecast accordingly. For the full year, we now expect net sales to be between $1.59 billion and $1.63 billion, growth of 1%-4% compared to sales of $1.57 billion in 2023. Our updated sales plan for 2024 still includes growth in all brands with new stores and full-year positive comps, offsetting the modest full-year decline in wholesale. We also expect growth in all direct-to-consumer channels, including full-price brick-and-mortar, e-commerce, food and beverage, and outlets.

We expect wholesale sales, which were down significantly as we expected in the Q1, to achieve modest growth during the remainder of the year compared to the prior year, with approximately $10 million in lower wholesale sales during the full FY 2024. While still open, our fall order books are trending higher than in the prior year as inventory levels at major department stores have improved. We now anticipate gross margins will be relatively flat in 2024 compared to the prior year, as expected increased activity during promotional events across our brands will offset the gross margin benefit from proportionally lower wholesale sales.

The higher sales and relatively flat gross margins are expected to be offset by increased SG&A, which is expected to grow at a rate higher than sales in 2024, primarily due to the investments in our business, including expanding our store count by a net of approximately 25 locations with five new Tommy Bahama Marlin Bars, continued IT investments, and the addition of Jack Rogers. Additionally, as discussed during the last call, we expect the Jack Rogers brand acquired in the Q4 of fiscal 2023 to generate an operating loss of approximately $2 million in 2024 as we reset and refocus the business. We also anticipate lower interest expense of $2 million for the year compared to $6 million in 2023, and higher royalty and other income, primarily from the full year of the Tommy Bahama Miramonte Resort.

We also expect a higher adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 25% compared to 23% in 2023, which benefited from certain favorable items that are not expected to recur in 2024. Considering all these items, we expect operating margin to decrease modestly from 2023 levels, and now expect 2024 adjusted EPS to be between $8.60 and $9.00 versus adjusted EPS of $10.15 last year, with decreases in our businesses and a higher tax rate being partially offset by the lower interest expense and higher adjusted royalties and other income. In the Q2 of 2024, we expect sales of $430 million-$450 million, compared to sales of $420 million in the Q2 of 2023. We also expect an approximate 50 basis points contraction in gross margin, with a trend of increased sales during promotional events expected to continue.

SG&A deleveraging $1 million of lower interest expense, an effective tax rate of approximately 24%, and flat royalty and other income. We expect this to result in Q2 adjusted EPS of between $2.95 and $3.15, compared to $3.45 in the Q2 of 2023. Expanding on the investments we were making in 2024, I'd like to briefly discuss our updated CapEx outlook for the remainder of the year. Due to refined cash flow timing projections for our Lyons, Georgia distribution center project and adjustments to other capital projects, capital expenditures in fiscal 2024 have been moderated and now expected to be approximately $170 million, compared to $74 million in fiscal 2023, with approximately $90 million related to the significant multi-year project to build the new distribution center in Lyons, Georgia, that will enhance the direct-to-consumer throughput capabilities of our brands.

The remaining capital expenditures relate to the execution or a pipeline of Marlin Bars, increases in store count across Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, Johnny Was, Southern Tide, and The Beaufort Bonnet Company, and increased investment in our various direct-to-consumer technology systems initiatives. We expect this elevated capital expenditure level to moderate in 2025 and further moderate in 2026 and beyond after the completion of the Lyons, Georgia project. We also have a positive outlook on our cash and liquidity position as well. Cash flows from operations are expected to be very strong, giving us ample room to fund the previously mentioned investments, our quarterly dividend, and repay the remainder of our outstanding debt. Thank you for your time today, and we'll now turn the call for questions. Shumali.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press Star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the Star key. One moment, please. Let me poll for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Ashley Owens with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Ashley Anne Owens (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, good afternoon. Just wondering if you could provide a little bit of color on kind of the trends by brand embedded in the Q2 guidance, as well as any color by brand on the exit rate leaving the Q1. Then I have a follow-up.

Scott Grassmyer (EVP, CFO and COO)

Yeah. We're expecting for the Q2, all of our brands have certainly improved, and we're expecting positive comps and are having positive comps so far in the Q2. So we expect kind of mid-single positives. It certainly has accelerated as the quarter's gone on, June being stronger than May.

Tom Chubb (Chairman, CEO, and President)

As Scott pointed out in his comments during the call, Q1, we were up against a 10% positive comp last year. In the Q2, we had, I think, a -5% last year. So it's an easier comp or comparison, but we're delivering against that so far, and we're optimistic about what we can do.

Ashley Anne Owens (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, great. And then just quickly on the gross margins, you called out some contraction expected for Q2. There's some in Q1, but you're guiding to flat for the year. So I think if we back into it, you're expecting to see some expansion in the back half. Maybe just help us a bit with the shaping there and also any color on what's driving that. Thanks.

Scott Grassmyer (EVP, CFO and COO)

Yeah, I think some of it is a lot of these new stores will be, especially in the Q4, will be operating. So I think our direct business and then the level of promotions should be more like-for-like versus being a little bit higher in the first half.

Ashley Anne Owens (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, great. Thank you.

Tom Chubb (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Thank you, Ashley.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Janine Stichter with BTIG. Please proceed with your question.

Janine Stichter (Managing Director and Consumer Retail & Lifestyle Brands Analyst)

Hi, good afternoon. I was hoping you could elaborate a little bit on the wholesale side of the business. It sounds like it's relatively on plan with what happened in Q1 and now expecting a return to growth for the remainder of the year, but would just love to hear a bit more about what you're hearing from your wholesale partners. And then maybe with that, if you could elaborate a bit on where you see additional door opportunities, potential for new door growth for both Tommy and for Lilly. Thank you.

Tom Chubb (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Okay, thank you, Janine. And I think that as we outlined in March and it came through, and of course, we have pretty good visibility because you book most of your wholesale business in advance. But last year's Q1, we had a very robust quarter in the wholesale. Most of the market did not, but we did. So we had a tough compare that we were going against. And then it was really just a matter, we believe, of retailers being very cautious as they saw softer consumer demand, just not wanting to be over-inventory. So they held their forward orders in check and resulted in the $17 million year-over-year decline that we had. All that said, and all along, our performance at retail has been quite good.

And as a result of that, and as their inventory positions are showing up in pretty good shape, the forward order book looks really solid, and we do expect to make up, I think, about half of that Q1 shortfall over the balance of the year. In terms of door growth, I think we do have opportunity. In Lilly Pulitzer, I think we got the opportunity to expand doors, and I think that's happening and will happen over the next couple of years. I think we can grow that wholesale business that way. In Tommy Bahama, it's probably a little bit more about doing more dollars in the doors that we're already in, with some door growth opportunity as well.

I think the continued growth of our women's wholesale business in Tommy Bahama, which has really been a bright spot over the last couple of years, but I still think we've got room to run there. So we're pretty bullish about wholesale. It's still we're going to be a direct-to-consumer-led business, and each of our brands will be, but we believe very much that wholesale is an important part of a healthy brand. And we think that with where we're positioned now and the way that we're partnering with our wholesale partners, we think we can grow there.

Janine Stichter (Managing Director and Consumer Retail & Lifestyle Brands Analyst)

Okay, great. And maybe then just one more. You talked a bit about consumer cautiousness, and it sounds like that's only kind of gotten worse as we go through the year. I know your consumers are really gravitating towards newness, especially Tommy Bahama. Do you feel like you have the right assortments to deliver that newness, or is there anything we should expect in terms of how you might pivot the merchandise just to kind of cater to what they're looking for in this environment? Thank you.

Tom Chubb (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Yeah, great question, Janine. And I do think newness is still really resonating with the consumer. And frankly, you hear that from a lot of our peers out there in the marketplace too, that that's what the consumer is looking for. I think the other big opportunity that we have is in sort of speaking on an enterprise-wide basis and generalizing a bit, but we've covered the super casual part of our assortments really well. So the sort of athleisure-type product and the lounge-type product covered that really well, and we're covering occasion really well. What I think where we have an opportunity is a little bit of that segment in the middle, which would be the everyday stuff that you could maybe wear to the office, maybe wear out to dinner with friends. And I think we're a little under-assorted in that right now.

I do think we get better with that as the year goes on and also have good newness coming in. So looking at it again on sort of an enterprise basis, I think we like our assortments as we get later in the year. I think they were fine in the spring, but I think they get better as the year progresses.

Janine Stichter (Managing Director and Consumer Retail & Lifestyle Brands Analyst)

Great. Thanks so much for the color and best of luck.

Tom Chubb (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Okay, thanks a lot, Janine.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mauricio Serna with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Mauricio Serna Vega (Executive Director)

Great. Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. First, in the updated sales guidance, just want to understand. I think you mentioned that you expect comp sales up mid-single digits Q2, and I think that's also the case for the rest of the year or second half. Just want to understand what was the prior outlook that you had contemplated, given that you lowered the sales guidance, and maybe any distinctions that you would make on where you're seeing under or overperformance across the brand's portfolio. Thank you.

Scott Grassmyer (EVP, CFO and COO)

Yeah, it was a 3-point higher in our original guidance. For the year, we're expecting to come out with a slightly positive comp, so we kind of overcome that negative in Q1, where before we were closer to mid-single for the year. We're now in more of the real low single for the year.

Mauricio Serna Vega (Executive Director)

Yeah, sorry. And about the brands?

Tom Chubb (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Yeah, I think Mauricio, what I would say is they all really, from a demographic standpoint, are kind of chasing similar customers. So they're sort of seeing the same thing, and there are some differences between the brands and geographies. But the overall theme is really the same. It's that more cautious consumer that's still showing up and looking. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, traffic year-over-year was actually up pretty nicely during the Q1, but the conversion is down. The one callout that I would really make is I think Johnny Was had a nice performance in e-commerce during the Q1, which really was a bit of a standout both in our company and, frankly, from what we've seen across a lot of the peers' side as well.

That would be, the bottom line, a pretty similar experience with some differences, but broadly, it's the same thing.

Mauricio Serna Vega (Executive Director)

Got it. And then just very lastly, on the guidance, I think you mentioned you expect SG&A, sorry, operating margin to decrease modestly. I think if you back into the guidance, I think it's pretty much in line with what you guided for last quarter. So I just want to understand from an SG&A dollar standpoint, are you also reducing that expectation just because of the lower sales, or how should we think about SG&A dollars? Thank you.

Scott Grassmyer (EVP, CFO and COO)

Yeah, SG&A has been moderated some. Yeah, but there'll still be higher year-over-year. And probably in the Q2 and Q3, probably somewhere around $20 million higher. Get to Q4, you have one less week, so it's probably about half that, roughly. So definitely moderated in dollars from our earlier forecast, but still a higher percent of a slightly higher percent of sales than earlier forecast.

Mauricio Serna Vega (Executive Director)

Got it. That 2030, is that for a specific quarter? Sorry.

Scott Grassmyer (EVP, CFO and COO)

That's for Q2 and 3. The 20-ish is in Qs 2 and 3 and about $20 million higher. And in Q4, about half of that, about $10 million higher, but Q4 has one less week because last year had that 53rd, it was a 14-week quarter versus a 13-week quarter.

Mauricio Serna Vega (Executive Director)

Got it. Okay. Very helpful. Thank you.

Scott Grassmyer (EVP, CFO and COO)

Yeah.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Lejuez with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Tracy Kogan (VP)

Hey, it's Tracy Kogan filling in for Paul. I was hoping you guys could say what you thought was the reason for the comp inflection in Q2? I know you referenced the easier comparison, so wondering if you think it's just that and if you think that easier comparisons is the reason that it's gotten better, say, in June versus May, or is there some new product introduction or maybe promotions that's driving this inflection? And then I have a follow-up. Thanks.

Tom Chubb (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Well, part of it is the more favorable comparison, the easier comparison to last year, but also, as we pointed out in March and again today, we have this shift in the way that we're running some of the events that will result in them probably having a really strong comp in the Q2. And that'll help pull the whole enterprise along a bit. And as we also mentioned, Tracy, we have seen quarter-to-date, Q2 look pretty good. It's positive. It's improved sequentially. It looks reasonably good so far.

Tracy Kogan (VP)

Did you see the same? I know there was more of a shift at Lilly, but have you seen a similar inflection point of comps at Tommy? Then my second question was just, in general, do you think you're seeing any price resistance from the consumer? I don't know if your consumer research is telling you anything there, or is it just the consumer being generally more cautious?

Tom Chubb (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Well, I think what we would say is very clearly, when they like it, they're more than happy to pay whatever we've got it marked at. And the best example of that probably is the Lilly Pulitzer capsule collection that they did, the 65th anniversary capsule, which was the average price on that was probably two or three times what their normal price points are, and it sold out very, very quickly. So I don't think there's really price resistance, but as much as just the consumer is looking for deals. And when there's not a deal, she's just being more selective about what she's really willing to buy.

Tracy Kogan (VP)

Thank you. And then just back to the Tommy Bahama question about this quarter, whether you had seen that similar kind of inflection, at least to positive comps, maybe not to a degree as well?

Tom Chubb (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Yeah, I think it's fair to say that all the brands have seen a good start to the Q2.

Tracy Kogan (VP)

Got it. Thank you very much. Good luck, guys.

Tom Chubb (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Thank you, Tracy.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We have reached the end of the question and answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to CEO Tom Chubb for closing remarks.

Tom Chubb (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Okay, thank you very much for your interest today. We look forward to talking to you again in September, and I hope you have a great summer until then.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your line at this time. Thank you for your participation.