Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

OI

OXFORD INDUSTRIES INC (OXM)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2026 delivered revenue of $392.9M and adjusted EPS of $1.82, both within guidance; revenue was above Wall Street consensus ($384.8M*) and EPS was essentially in line ($1.82*) .
  • Mix headwinds and tariffs compressed margins: adjusted gross margin down 110 bps YoY to 64.3%, and adjusted operating margin down to 9.8% from 14.4% .
  • Guidance cut materially due to tariff assumptions: FY2025 GAAP EPS lowered to $2.28–$2.68 (from $4.21–$4.61), adjusted EPS to $2.80–$3.20 (from $4.60–$5.00), and sales to $1.475–$1.515B (from $1.49–$1.53B) .
  • Segment divergence persists: Lilly Pulitzer grew double digits (+12% YoY net sales), while Tommy Bahama (-4%) and Johnny Was (-15%) fell; wholesale grew +4% while e-commerce fell -5% .
  • Near-term stock reaction catalysts: revenue beat vs consensus*, significant FY guidance reset (tariffs), and management’s supply chain diversification/tariff mitigation timeline into Spring 2026 .
    Estimates marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Lilly Pulitzer strength: net sales +12% YoY to $99.0M, operating margin up to 18.3%; management highlighted “beautiful prints” and a higher newness quotient (>50%) driving positive comps and profitability .
  • Wholesale growth +4% YoY to $92M, with solid performance “head to head” on department store floors; management noted tracking to expectations .
  • Gross margins remained robust despite headwinds: adjusted GM 64.3%, supported by brand equity and pricing power; GAAP GM 64.2% .

What Went Wrong

  • Tariffs and mix pressure: adjusted GM contracted 110 bps; increased e-commerce freight, clearance markdowns at Lilly/Johnny Was, and higher wholesale/off-price mix weighed on margins .
  • Comps -5% in Q1 and continued weakness into Q2 to date; food & beverage sales down -3% and e-commerce down -5% YoY .
  • Johnny Was mid-teens decline (-15% net sales), turning to operating loss with operating margin of -7.8% GAAP; management is refocusing brand profitability with changes to merchandising, marketing, and retail execution .

Financial Results

Headline Financials vs prior quarter/year and estimates

MetricQ4 2025Q1 2025 (Prior Year)Q1 2026 (Current)
Revenue ($USD Millions)$390.5 $398.2 $392.9
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.13 $2.42 $1.70
Adjusted EPS ($)$1.37 $2.66 $1.82
Gross Margin % (GAAP)60.6% 64.9% 64.2%
Gross Margin % (Adjusted)60.8% 65.4% 64.3%
Operating Income ($USD Millions, GAAP)$20.3 $52.5 $36.2
Operating Margin % (GAAP)5.2% 13.2% 9.2%
Operating Margin % (Adjusted)6.5% 14.4% 9.8%
Net Earnings ($USD Millions)$17.9 $38.4 $26.2
Effective Tax Rate %8% 25.6% 24.1%
Revenue Consensus ($USD Millions)——$384.8*
EPS Consensus ($)——$1.816*
# of Estimates (Revenue / EPS)——6 / 6*
Estimates marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Performance (Q1)

SegmentNet Sales ($USD Millions) Q1 2025Net Sales ($USD Millions) Q1 2026Gross Margin % Q1 2025Gross Margin % Q1 2026Operating Margin % Q1 2025Operating Margin % Q1 2026
Tommy Bahama$225.6 $216.2 65.7% 64.6% 18.9% 14.2%
Lilly Pulitzer$88.4 $99.0 67.0% 65.6% 17.6% 18.3%
Johnny Was$51.2 $43.5 64.9% 64.7% 6.0% (Adj) -3.4% (Adj)
Emerging Brands$33.0 $34.2 59.2% 59.3% 11.5% 5.6%
Consolidated$398.2 $392.9 65.4% (Adj) 64.3% (Adj) 14.4% (Adj) 9.8% (Adj)

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q1 2026
Full-price DTC Sales ($USD Millions)—$249 (-3% YoY)
Full-price Retail ($USD Millions)—$135 (-1% YoY)
E-commerce ($USD Millions)—$114 (-5% YoY)
Outlet ($USD Millions)—$18 (flat YoY)
Food & Beverage ($USD Millions)—$34 (-3% YoY)
Wholesale ($USD Millions)—$92 (+4% YoY)
Enterprise Comps (%)—-5%
Debt Outstanding ($USD Millions)$31 (end FY2024) $118 (end Q1)
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)$32.9 (Q1 2024) -$3.9 (Q1 2025)
Store Count (Total Oxford, end Q1)322 (FY2024 Q1) 353 (FY2025 Q1)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Sales ($USD Billions)FY2025$1.49–$1.53 $1.475–$1.515 Lowered
GAAP EPS ($)FY2025$4.21–$4.61 $2.28–$2.68 Lowered
Adjusted EPS ($)FY2025$4.60–$5.00 $2.80–$3.20 Lowered
Additional Tariff CostsFY2025~$9–$10M $40M ($2.00/share after-tax) Increased materially
Interest Expense ($USD Millions)FY2025$7 $8; $1–$2 per quarter remainder Raised
Effective Tax Rate (%)FY2025~25% (normalized) ~26% Raised
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)FY2025~$125 ~$120 (incl. ~$70 Lyons DC) Lowered
Q2 Net Sales ($USD Millions)Q2 FY2025—$395–$415 (vs $420 prior-year) New / Updated
Q2 GAAP EPS ($)Q2 FY2025—$0.92–$1.12 (Adj: $1.05–$1.25) New / Updated
Dividend per Share ($)Quarterly$0.69 declared Mar 24, 2025 $0.69 payable Aug 1, 2025 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2025)Previous Mentions (Q4 2025)Current Period (Q1 2026)Trend
Tariffs/MacroHeadwinds: elections, hurricanes; increased promotional mix; cautious consumer FY2025 guide initially assumed ~$9–$10M tariffs; normalized tax; investments continue Tariff assumptions raised (30% China/10% others); ~$40M gross impact; mitigation by Spring 2026 Materially more negative near-term; mitigation underway
Supply Chain Diversification—Distribution center (Lyons, GA) progress; capex elevated “Substantially out of China” by second half of 2026; Spring 2026 fully mitigated Accelerating shift away from China
Product PerformanceIndigo Palms denim/Luxe sweaters strong; Lilly novelty success Strong holiday gifting; premium positioning Lilly double-digit growth; TB newness working; Johnny Was underperforming Mixed: Lilly strong; TB stable; Johnny Was challenged
WholesaleSpecialty stores weak; departments improving Forward bookings encouraging +4% in Q1; tracking expectations; H2 cautious Stabilizing; cautious outlook
Regional/OperationsHurricanes hurt Q3; Southeastern US is critical Lyons DC project a multi-year investment Lyons DC on track; restaurant comps near flat ex Sarasota closure Operational resilience; DC completion by year-end
Technology Initiatives—Ongoing IT investments incl. “automation (including artificial intelligence)” $12M capitalizable cloud computing implementation costs in Q1 Continuing tech/IT spend; potential LT efficiency

Management Commentary

  • “We were able to deliver sales and adjusted EPS within our guidance ranges for the first quarter despite uncertain tariff and trade dynamics… led by a low double digit increase at Lilly Pulitzer… maintained strong gross margins above 64%.” — Tom Chubb, CEO .
  • “Tariff policy is requiring us to significantly realign our supply chain… currently expect to exceed the milestones… by the second half of 2026. We currently plan to be substantially out of China.” — Tom Chubb .
  • “Adjusted gross margin contracted 110 basis points to 64.3%… increased freight expenses… increased markdowns… higher wholesale/off-price mix.” — Scott Grassmyer, CFO/COO .
  • “Comp sales figures in the second quarter today are negative, similar to the first quarter… we expect full-year comps in the low single-digit negative range.” — Scott Grassmyer .
  • “Our plan for Spring 2026… AUR will increase by less than 3%, fully recovering gross margin dollars… initial gross margin percent would decrease by less than 50 bps.” — Tom Chubb (Tommy Bahama example) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Comps trajectory: Q1 comps -5%; April strongest month; sequential improvement through the quarter; Q2-to-date comps negative similar to Q1 .
  • Wholesale: +4% in Q1; performing well vs peers on department store floors; specialty stores remain weaker; H2 wholesale expected slightly down .
  • Tariff math: Gross impact raised from ~$9–$10M to ~$40M given 30% China/10% rest-of-world assumptions; mitigation via sourcing shifts and selective pricing by Spring 2026 .
  • Pricing/promotions: Modest price increases in Fall 2025; Spring 2026 sees full mitigation; more business expected during promotional periods in 2025 .
  • Johnny Was: mid-teens sales decline; profitability turnaround plan focused on creative, merchandising, marketing, retail execution; more impact likely in 2026+ .
  • Food & beverage: sales down 3% YoY; comp nearly flat ex Sarasota closure (relocation) .

Estimates Context

MetricPeriodConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)Q1 2026384.8*392.9
Primary EPS ($)Q1 20261.816*1.82
# of Estimates (Revenue / EPS)Q1 20266 / 6*—
Estimates marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications:

  • Revenue beat (~+2.1% vs consensus*) and in-line EPS provide some near-term support, but guidance reset and tariff headwinds likely drive estimate cuts for FY2025 (margins, EPS) despite mitigation plans into Spring 2026 .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue slightly above consensus* and adjusted EPS in line; quality of beat tempered by margin compression from tariffs, freight, and mix .
  • FY2025 guidance reset is significant (EPS cut >40% vs prior guide) driven by higher tariff assumptions; expect near-term estimate revisions lower and potential multiple compression until mitigation is clearer .
  • Lilly Pulitzer momentum (double-digit growth, higher newness) offsets weakness at Tommy Bahama and Johnny Was; watch sustainability of Lilly comps through promotional cadence .
  • Tariff mitigation roadmap credible (sourcing shift, modest pricing, vendor cost sharing) with full mitigation targeted by Spring 2026; track progress against China exposure reduction (<10% in 2026) .
  • Balance sheet flexibility remains, but leverage increased with Q1 debt at $118M due to capex ($23M), buybacks ($51M), and cloud implementation costs ($12M); monitor cash generation through peak seasons .
  • Wholesale stabilizing (+4%), department stores stronger than specialty; forward bookings cautious—risk to H2 wholesale if consumer remains weak .
  • Near-term trading: focus on Q2 margin trajectory (250 bps GM contraction guided), tariff newsflow, and evidence of comps stabilization; medium-term thesis hinges on supply chain execution, Lyons DC benefits, and brand-led pricing power .