Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning and welcome to GAP's conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the presentation, we will open the floor for questions, and at that time, instructions will be given if you would like to ask a question. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to GAP's Investor Relations team. Please go ahead.

Maria Barona (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you, and welcome to the Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico's First Quarter 2025 conference call. Presenting from the company today, we welcome Mr. Raúl Revuelta, GAP's Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Saúl Villarreal, Chief Financial Officer. Please be advised that forward-looking statements may be made during this conference call. These do not account for future economic circumstances, industry conditions, the company's future performance, or financial results. As such, statements made are based on several assumptions and factors that could change, causing actual results to materially differ from the current expectations. For a complete note on forward-looking statements, please refer to the quarterly report issued previously. At this point, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Revuelta for his opening remarks. Please begin, sir.

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Thank you, Maria. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2025 results call. Let me start with highlighting our financial performance. Despite a challenging macroeconomic and travel demand environment, we delivered a strong first quarter with solid growth across all key financial and operational indicators. Total revenue grew by 26% year-over-year, reaching MXN 8.4 billion, driven by a 20.9% increase in aeronautical revenues and 41.3% growth in non-aeronautical revenues. This was due to several positive factors that include higher passenger traffic, the benefit of the new maximum tariff implemented on March 1 due to the last Master Development Program revision, the peso depreciation of around 20%, and incremental revenues from new commercial spaces, which include the mixed-use building that includes the hotel and the consolidation of the cargo facilities, mainly in the Guadalajara Airport.

On the profitability front, EBITDA increased by 21%, reaching MXN 5.6 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 67.1%. Margins slightly contracted compared to the first quarter 2024, mainly due to recognition in the P&L of the increase in the concession fee from 5% to 9% in our Mexican airports. Although these changes were enacted in January 2024, it is important to recall that under the new tariff regulation, any payment to the government exceeding those, including the last tariff review, will be added to the reference value for the next maximum tariff review. As such, the additional 4% of aeronautical revenue paid to the government during fiscal year 2024 was recognized as an intangible asset under IAS 38, with amortization beginning in January 2025 and continuing through the end of the concession period.

The related payments were included in the reference value for the determination of the maximum tariff of 2025-2029. This quarter marks the first time the full 9% concession fee has been recognized in the P&L. It's also important to highlight that the entry of the new commercial business improves our results but causes a slight dilution and EBITDA margins. The reason is that while these business lines significantly contribute to the top line of EBITDA in nominal terms, the actual margin levels are lower than those of the core airport operations. For example, GWTC and the new hotel operate with an EBITDA margin of around 50%, which, although healthy, is below our historical EBITDA margin profile. As we continue diversifying our revenue streams, we remain focused on balancing growth with profitability across all segments. From a financial standpoint, the company remains strong.

As of March 31, we have MXN 16.2 billion in cash, following a successful MXN 6 billion bond issuance. We also extend and refinance key credit lines in Mexico and Jamaica, providing financial flexibility to support upcoming investments. Following these figures, we maintain healthy leverage levels, reaching a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.7 times for the following 12 months, thus complying with all our debt covenants. Moving on to the CapEx during the quarter, GAP executes approximately MXN 1.7 billion in capital expenditures. Just as a reminder, for the full year, the plan is to deploy around MXN 13 billion. This includes MXN 8.8 billion in committed investment across our Mexican airports under the Master Development Program.

In addition to that figure, we have continued the construction of the new Puerto Vallarta terminal, which alone represents about MXN 1.7 billion, plus MXN 1.35 billion of investment in our Jamaican airports and about MXN 1 billion dedicated to commercial development. These investments are central to our strategy of enhancing infrastructure, expanding our commercial footprint, and strengthening the overall passengers' experience, all of which are key pillars for supporting our long-term growth. Let's now turn to the macroeconomic environment. We believe that for GAP, the risk of a U.S. recession, migration directives, and the possible tariff impact remain key concerns. We are also closely monitoring the potential effects of passengers' traffic, particularly in the discretionary and leisure sectors, and we'll keep the market posted going forward.

It is important to note that the Holy Week fell in April this year compared to March last year, so these months do not compare exactly with the last year. We will need a bit more time to fully assess the underlying trend for the leisure destination figures. That said, the data appears consistent with a broader economic slowdown in the U.S., which quickly may manifest throughout reduced leisure travel and tourist spending. This is nothing that we have not seen before, and we are actively monitoring these changes so that we may adjust our assumptions accordingly. Very interestingly, we have looked at Canadian travelers and their travel tendencies. Many Canadians are seeking new places to travel instead of the U.S., which could represent an opportunity to attract additional flights from Canada to our airports.

I mention this because we believe that these disruptions represent a strategic opportunity for Mexico. As Canadian travelers distance themselves from U.S. destinations such as Florida and California, for example, they may likely redirect their vacation plans toward Mexican beaches and the Caribbean, whereby their airlines would be inclined to rebalance their network. Most likely, GAP's leisure airports of Puerto Vallarta, Los Cabos, and Montego Bay could be well-positioned to benefit from this spread. Expanding connectivity is an opportunity that we are focused on. This year, GAP plans to announce 15 new domestic routes and 19 international routes further strengthening our network, and these are a key critical advantage in today's landscape. Before I conclude, I'd like to highlight that our ordinary shareholders' meeting took place last week, during which a dividend payment of MXN 16.84 per outstanding share was approved.

This dividend will be distributed over the course of the year, reflecting our continued commitment to delivering value to our shareholders. Thank you, and we are now happy to open it for questions.

Operator (participant)

At this time, we'll open the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad, and you will be placed in the queue in the order received. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing pound and one. Once again, to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone. Our first question comes from Stephen Trent from Citigroup. Please go ahead, Stephen.

Stephen Trent (Managing Director)

Yes, good morning, gentlemen, and thanks very much for the time. I appreciate your comments about potential Canadian travel flow getting rerouted to potentially the Mexican beaches. Have you noticed anything from other regions or have maybe any observations that carriers in other regions may also be doing the same thing, rerouting to Mexico versus Disney World or something like that?

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Thank you, Stephen. This is Raúl. I mean, the first part that we are noting is the case of the Canadians. First, we see an important decrease in seats from U.S. from Canadian markets to U.S. markets. We are beginning to see some additional slots that are asking from mainly Canadian markets for the next winter and in some specific case of Guadalajara, for instance, for the summer. We are just seeing for the moment a change in the trend in some way for the Canadian market. For the U.S. market, I think that it's still being really early to think if all the economic environment will in some way change the rest of the routes from the U.S. to Mexico or to Jamaica. What we are seeing right now is just some kind of a slight change on trend of Canadian markets.

Stephen Trent (Managing Director)

Oh, great. Thank you, Raúl. Excuse me, I'm sorry. Just one quick follow-up, if I may. When we think about the limitations on traffic movements in Benito Juárez Airport and the government's push to move some traffic to Felipe Ángeles Airport, are there any expectations that we could see some adjustments in one or both assets in a positive manner that could affect the level of fee that GAP receives from either of those installations?

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

I mean, it's something, I mean, some kind of news and some kind of discussions, I mean, a public discussion about the possible increase on slots in Mexico City and in some way going back to the position that there perhaps, I mean, two years ago, the number of slots per operations per hour. For the moment, we have not seen any kind of, I mean, official, I would say, announcement about that possible change. What we are seeing is some specific companies, as Viva Aerobus, for instance, are acting, I would say, more aggressively going to Santa Lucia as another option for the city. I mean, at the end of the day, as in airports, we always need to think that we operate as a net.

All kind of efficiency, all efficiencies in any airport, is important for the, I would say, for the whole net and the connectivity for all the airports. I mean, we are just really closely watching if there are some kind of changes on the policies in terms of slots on Mexico City Airport. We are, I would say, seeing really closely also the increase on routes from Santa Lucia Airport, mainly from Viva Aerobus, to other airports in Mexico.

Stephen Trent (Managing Director)

Okay. Very helpful, Raúl. Thank you for that.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Guilherme Mendes from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Guilherme Mendes (Equity Research Executive Director)

Hey, good morning, Raúl. Thanks for taking my question. Two points. The first one on the guidance is given all the escalations on the tariff discussions, risks of a U.S. recession, as you point out, Raúl. How comfortable are you guys with the full-year guidance? We saw Volaris reducing its guidance for the year in the beginning of the week. How might this impact GAP's traffic going forward? The second one is on the Turks and Caicos potential new bid. I recall on the last conference call that you mentioned that something could come up in the near term. Just wondering if there's any news on that front. Thank you.

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Thank you, Guilherme. The first time, the first part, I mean, in terms of our traffic guidance, we still feel comfortable about the number that we sent. At the end of the day, we always prepare our guidance and all the numbers, the figures that are considered on the guidance are factual routes that are already solicited for the different airlines for all the years. For the moment, at least, we are not seeing an important, I would say, decrease in terms of seats. The load factor is still being really strong. When we talk about the domestic market, the load factor is still really high, a historical high, because the lack of seats for the problem on the engines of the Airbuses.

In my point of view, it still be on the market some kind of demand on the domestic market that has not been completely, I would say, attended for the lack of seats. At least for the moment, we are not seeing a complete change on the trend of recovery that our airport has. At the end of the day, I would say that there's a lot of cars moving right now. I mean, all the possible tariffs are changing day by day. I think that it's, I would say, really tough trying to understand how going to be the final result in terms of the macroeconomics of these changes. At least for the moment, we are not seeing any kind of change on our trends, and we continue comfortable about our guidance. Yes. The case, yeah, for Turks and Caicos.

Yeah, and just for, sorry, Saúl was ready to ask. Sorry. We received an official letter from the government of Turks and Caicos that they said that during May, they will make the final determination about this bidding process. We are just waiting for the information.

Guilherme Mendes (Equity Research Executive Director)

Very clear. Thank you, Raúl.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Fernanda Recchia from BTG. Please go ahead.

Fernanda Recchia (Executive Director)

Hey, Saúl, Raúl. Two questions here from our side as well. The first, on the commercial revenues, looking at Q1 figures, the year-over-year growth was very strong, plus 40%. Of course, there is the GWTC impact in Q1. Just wondering what level of commercial growth for 2026 can we expect, considering that for 2025, we already have your guidance. Second, on capital allocation, you already provided an update on Turks and Caicos, but I'm wondering if you're also looking for other processes such as CCR or other opportunity in cargo division as well, such as the WTC. That's it. Thank you.

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Thank you, Fernanda. This is Raúl. I mean, yeah, as you say, this first quarter was pretty strong. I mean, more than 40% of increase in non-aeronautical revenues. For sure, a big part was also related with the acquisition of GWTC. Even with that, I would say that the increase on non-aeronautical revenues was above the 15% if we are not considering GWTC. That is really a robust result, just putting in the context of an increase on 4% of the passengers. I mean, we are really happy. For sure, we have the effect of some new commercial businesses that opened during the last year. For instance, the hotel, as you remember, began operations in April of 2024. This first quarter, we have, let me put it this way, an easy comp.

In general terms, we still feel comfortable with our non-aeronautical revenues guidance. Talking about 2026, I would say that all the different terminal increases on capacity from our terminal buildings that we built during the master plan of 2020-2025 will be fully operating twelve years. I would say that 2026 is going to be the first year that all the different businesses will be fully operated. We are expecting, I would say, something that will be for sure close to the double digit, but going to be more, I would say, normalized and for sure will depend on how it could happen with the traffic on the coming years.

I mean, I will conclude that for the case of the non-aeronautical revenues, we still feel really positive because, I mean, all the different changes and the layouts, all the hard work that our commercial area for developing new experience for our passengers are doing pretty good. We feel comfortable that our business model will work in coming years and is going to be really resilient, even with a possible downturn in the economy. In terms of the capital allocation, Saúl?

Saúl Villarreal (CFO)

Yes. Thanks, Fernanda. This is Saúl. We will continue looking for opportunities. As Raúl said, we are waiting for the final outcome of Turks and Caicos Airport process. Related to CCR, as you were asking, we are analyzing the opportunity. We have not decided yet to participate or not. As you may know, it is four different countries, more than 20 airports in the pool.

The time to dedicate to analyze this will be very important in order to decide to participate or not. It is something that we are aware of, but we have not decided yet to participate. Just for some additional idea of this, just to remind all the participants on the call, one of the key disciplines of GAP is the discipline for just accretive acquisitions. We will continue in that same line. Always, we will analyze the opportunities that make sense for our company, but always look in the correct view of just accretive opportunities for our shareholders. Just for the case of the cargo acquisitions, GWTC has really, I would say, great acquisitions with great results.

Today, we are working really, really hard trying to get the best possible business plan for the long term in some other airports from GAP, taking, like, I would say, platform of cargo growth to be GWTC. Today, we are analyzing inside that company which will be the next move of operations, cargo operation in other airports in GAP.

Fernanda Recchia (Executive Director)

Very clear. Thank you so much for your answers.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Jens Spiess from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Jens Spiess (VP)

Yes. Hello. Thank you for taking my question. I have a question regarding basically also the capacity you're seeing, more specifically the traffic for this year and your guidance. We saw relative to the previous guidance you gave, what has changed is that local carriers have obviously retrenched a bit of capacity. The capacity numbers still look good, I think. Any conversations you're having with foreign airlines that might also reduce capacity down the road? What are you seeing in terms of the mix going forward? I know you already said that you feel comfortable with the traffic guidance, but just any color on that would be much appreciated. Thank you.

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Thank you, Jens. I would say that in general terms, all the different discussions with airlines are in some way the same line. I mean, the domestic airlines are struggling with the lack of capacity for the engines' problems. I mean, it's what it is. And it's a problem that in some way is still floating in the industry. For the international companies, I will say the only market where we are seeing some kind of decrease in capacity and some change on planning and networks is the case of Montego Bay. Specifically, American Airlines are changing some of the routes from Charlotte and Miami.

I mean, any change on the routes of Miami from American is, I would say, that it's difficult for any airport in the Caribbean because, as you know, Miami is one of the biggest hubs that on the hub and spoke of strategy for all the Caribbean. Any change of American Airlines in that market is difficult. We are seeing with an important decrease on passengers on the first quarter of the year for Montego Bay, that minus 8%. I would say that is the only, I would say, decrease that today are in some way showing us the airlines, the ones that are happening in Montego. On the other hand, we have, I would say, interesting possible or potential routes and negotiations with different Canadian airlines. I mean, that will be the main parts of our discussions today.

Some, I would say, decrease on capacity on Montego that will still be until the winter. A potential increase on capacities for different Canadian companies mainly in Cabos, Puerto Vallarta, and Guadalajara Airport. I would say that are the most important, I would say, discussions with the airlines right now.

Jens Spiess (VP)

Okay. Perfect. Just one follow-up. Regarding your tariff implementation in Mexico, does it still is the schedule that you gave last time, is it still valid or any change there on the expected implementation?

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Oh, it's still in the same way. I mean, as always, we try to look into the market to understand perfectly the moment for a change in tariff. As you know, we just changed on the 1st of March the tariff, and we already get something close to 90% of fulfillment of the maximum tariff. I mean, we are still on the same page of making another change to the end of the year. I mean, it will be something that we need to perfectly analyze at the moment.

Jens Spiess (VP)

Okay. Sounds good. All right. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Pablo Monsivais from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi. Good morning, Saúl, Raúl, Alejandra. Thanks for taking my question. Just a little bit of follow-up to Jens' questions about the tariff. You just mentioned that you are 90% completion. What are your plans to increase tariffs throughout the year? I remember that you were expecting to increase a little bit during the summer and also early 2026. Can you please shed some light for modeling purposes of what should we expect for tariffs to evolve this year and next year? Thank you.

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Hi, Pablo. I would say that for this year, we don't expect to have another, I would say, additional changes on the tariff. We are expecting to begin the next change of tariff happens mainly we expect to happen on the first days of January of coming year. As always, we need to perfectly understand the market at that moment. As you know, for instance, the exchange rate and the inflation plays a really important role in the fulfillment of the tariffs. I would say that we will be ready to make public what would be the change on tariff at the beginning of coming year as soon as we have the full information about what's happening with inflation, what is the trend of the dollar, because all the international passengers in Mexico are in dollars.

I mean, at that moment, we're going to be ready to have the answer that would be the change on tariff. In general terms, our plan continues to be to have another change on tariff until the first quarter of the coming year.

Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)

Just one follow-up, if I may. This tariff increase also is a reflection on the inflation and the discounts that you are not offering anymore. Is that correct?

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Yeah. I mean, in general terms, let me put it really in a way for everybody. We increased all our fixed passenger on 15% on March 1 when we compared with the ones that we were applying on December of the last year. That was the main number.

Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Pablo Ricalde from Itaú. Please go ahead.

Pablo Ricalde (Analyst)

Hi. Good morning, Saúl, Raúl. I have two questions on traffic. The first one, it's on Montego Bay. When do you expect turnaround in traffic in Montego Bay? The second one, it's more long-term related to the World Cup in 2026. Have you quantified how much can impact your traffic numbers in 2026?

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Okay. Thank you, Pablo. For the case of the World Cup, I mean, the case of Guadalajara, we're going to have five games here. There are different forecastings that the FIFA Organization Committee has made, I would say, public. Today, it's difficult to understand how big could be this impact. The numbers of possible attraction of tourists could be going from 300,000 to around 600,000. It depends on the repetition. One of the things that all the FIFA committee told us is that as soon as we have the teams that will be based on Guadalajara, it will be easy to understand which is going to be the possible attraction for the airport. It will depend.

One of the things that, for instance, we are expecting is a really important use of the Tijuana Airport crossing through CBX from soccer markets of Southern California to coming to Guadalajara, for instance. At the end of the day, one of the things that will give us a more, I would say, correct understanding of which could be the potential attraction of additional passengers would be at the moment that we know which teams are going to play the games in Guadalajara. Yes. Hi, Pablo. This is Saúl. Related to traffic, passenger traffic in Montego Bay, we do not foresee right now when we will come back at the same day we have. We were discussing with different airlines, basically American Airlines, JetBlue, and others, in order to attract more passengers.

From the Board of Tourism in Jamaica, they are promoting business travelers to Jamaica from the U.S., U.K., and Canada. We expect this to make and drive more passenger traffic to Montego Bay. It is complicated to see right now when it will come back because the Caribbean, in general, the passenger traffic is moving to other destinations. Yeah. It is a general trend, I would say. All the airports of the different destinations in the Caribbean are having an important decrease on passengers, mainly from the U.S. It is a trend happening right now in the Caribbean. For sure, as I would say, we still have working really close to airlines and the government and the tourist authorities on Jamaica trying to bring back some of the capacity to Jamaica.

It is important also to remark that we also are working on a cost reduction program, cost reduction strategy for MBJ to be, as always, I mean, one of the characteristics of GAP, be prepared to be resilient for any kind of deeper decrease on passengers. We are also working on the OPEX and an important plan for possible reductions on that and be prepared for even a possible deeper decrease on passengers.

Pablo Ricalde (Analyst)

Perfect. That was very clear. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Alberto Valerio from UBS. Please go ahead.

Alberto Valerio (Executive Director)

Hi. Good morning, gentlemen. One question on my side about CapEx caught my attention at the same level of last year. I was expecting something higher because the MDP. Do we expect this CapEx to go high for this year increase quarter over quarter? How is the labor force in Mexico at this moment if you have everything hired or if you need to hire the workforce for doing the CapEx? If you could provide any details, it would be very helpful. Thank you very much.

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Thank you, Alberto. This is Raúl. I mean, it's time when there's a new master plan. At the end of the day, all the—let me put it in this way—all the clear authorizations of what's going to be the new plans for the coming year happen in the last quarter of the last year. Always the first year of master plan, at the beginning of the first quarter, the first six months of the plan, I would say that we're struggling a little bit on beginning to move all our infrastructure at the department and to begin all the—to move all of what are going to be the plan. For sure, we're still optimistic that we will completely fulfill our plans of CapEx during this year.

We are really comfortable because some of the most important plans for this year right now are beginning just to run with constructors. We are, I would say, we think that all our commitments of investment will be fulfilled for the end of the year. I would say a final remark on this is that always it's five years. The first six months, it's, I would say, difficult to begin all to move all the moving parts of the infrastructure to begin to deploy all the plan. We are optimistic that we will be on the target for ending with the commitment for this year.

Alberto Valerio (Executive Director)

Thank you very much. Very clear.

Operator (participant)

At this time, there are no further phone questions.

Maria Barona (Head of Investor Relations)

We have some questions from the webcast. We are going to start with the ones from Jorge Vargas from GBM. He is asking, "Margins declined 280 basis points year-over-year to 67.1%, mainly due to higher costs and the full recognition of the 9% concession fee. Do you expect margins to stabilize at this level, or is there potential for further compression in the next quarters?

Saúl Villarreal (CFO)

Hi, Jorge. This is Saúl. Yes. These will be the levels of margin that we will see from now, as we explained during the call. We are paying already and recognizing in the P&L the concession fee full payment to the government, the 9% increase from 5% to 9%. It is important to understand that talking about the 69%, the 70% will be complicated to return to those levels. To be in the range of 66%-67%, 67.5% in this year will be the right level. We do not expect any change in the following months.

Maria Barona (Head of Investor Relations)

There is another one that says now that the cargo operations are fully consolidated. How should we think about their margin contribution going forward? Are there any efficiencies initiatives in place to improve profitability in this segment?

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Yes. I mean, we are working with the new acquisitions. For sure, we are taking different increases on margins on that and efficiencies on that specific acquisition. For sure, one of the key parts is GAP has a really important, let me put it this way, technology and automatizations in some of the administrative concepts that we are bringing to GWTC that will bring us additional efficiencies for the operation of this business. We are just on that. We are in this process of digesting all this new business. As soon as we could bring all these efficiencies to this new business, we're going to be ready for looking for another possible development in our airports. I would say that right now or this year we're going to be used for optimizing the operation of GWTC.

Maria Barona (Head of Investor Relations)

We have some questions from Edson Murguia from SummaCap that are like a following question that says, "Regarding cargo and bonded warehouses, how sustainable is the revenue growth for the following quarters?

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

It's a good question. I mean, on the first quarter of this year, we experienced an important increase in terms of cargo, bonded cargo, because with all the noise about the possible tariffs, some companies made or sent additional inventories to their warehouses. So it's not pretty clear how much time will be or how long the increase in revenues from the cargo will continue. I mean, we are really growing at a rate pace of almost 30% on the first cargo for GWTC. I mean, we will wait and see what's going to happen in the coming months.

Maria Barona (Head of Investor Relations)

From Edson as well, he's asking, "Regarding the employees' cost, can we expect the same cost for the following quarters?

Saúl Villarreal (CFO)

Hi, Edson. This is Saúl. Yes. Basically, yes. We will see at the same level of cost of personnel and salaries. We have to consider that integration and consolidation of GWTC implies an additional cost. At the end, it's something that we have considered in our guidance. It's something that we plan into our budget. It is the level of cost that we will see in the following quarters.

Maria Barona (Head of Investor Relations)

Yeah. Edson, the last one that you're asking about the CapEx for Puerto Vallarta Airport, yes, it is going to be MXN 1.7 billion during 2025. That's correct. This is the last question that we have in the webcast.

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Thank you once again for joining us today for our first quarter results conference. Our team is available to address any questions you may have. Have a great day. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

This does conclude GAP's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.