Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to GAP's fourth quarter of 2025 conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the presentation, we will open the floor for questions. At that time, instructions will be given if you'd like to ask a question. Now, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to GAP's Investor Relations team. Please go ahead.

Alejandra Soto (Investor Relations Officer)

Thank you, welcome to GAP's conference call. I'd like to take a few moments to review the forward-looking statements as described in the financial disclosure statement. Please be advised that statements made today may not account for future economic circumstances, industry conditions, the company's future performance, or financial results. As such, any information discussed is based on several assumptions and factors that could change, causing actual results to materially differ from current expectations. For the complete note on forward-looking statements, please refer to the quarterly report. Thank you for your attention. It is my great pleasure to introduce Mr. Raúl Revuelta, GAP's Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Saul Villarreal, Chief Financial Officer. The gentlemen will be our speakers today. At this time, I will turn the call over to Mr. Revuelta for his opening remarks.

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Thank you, Alejandra. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your time here today. I'm pleased to share with you the company's operational and financial highlights for the fourth quarter of 2025, which conclude a solid year despite the several external challenge that I will discuss today. I will begin with the quarterly passenger traffic and then move on the financial results, followed by a brief review of the full year. Passenger traffic decreased 0.9% during the fourth quarter compared to the same period of 2024. This first four months is still from the two clear separate dynamics within our portfolio. The first, in Mexico, traffic trends remain relatively stable despite varying performance across the different airports.

While passengers growth was 2.9%, revenue was further supported by the implementation of the new Maximum Tariff approved and applied during 2025, as well as expansion of the routes in select markets. As you are aware, Hurricane Melissa struck Jamaica on October 28, leading to the temporary suspension of operations at Montego Bay as well as Kingston airports. This resulted in a traffic decrease of nearly 35% during the quarter. Although there was no material damage to either airports, passenger traffic did significantly decline in November and December, mainly in Montego Bay. The main factor was the hurricane impact of the surrounding area, as well as the hotel infrastructure, where around 70% of the total capacity affects. On a positive note, the recovery of total capacity, of hotel capacity as well as tourist infrastructure across the region has been better than expected.

While the actual timing of a full normalization remain unclear, the Minister of Tourism has indicated that hotel capacity is expected to return to 100% by the upcoming 2026 winter season. We remain confident in the long-term fundamentals of the Jamaican market and its overall structural growth potential. Moving on to the revenues. Combined aeronautical and non-aeronautical service revenues increased by 12.8%, reflecting the sustained structural strength of our business model. Aeronautical revenues grew by 12.6%, primarily driven by the aforementioned Maximum Tariff that was approved and applied during 2025 in Mexico, as well as the continued expansion of our routes. Non-aeronautical revenues increased by 13.3% quarter-over-quarter.

In Mexico particularly, commercial revenues were strong, mainly supported by the performance of the cargo and bound warehouse business and the opening and renegotiation of commercial spaces under improved market conditions. The most dynamic segment includes food and beverage, retail, ground transportation, and leasing activities. EBITDA increased by 7.5%, reaching MXN 5.1 billion. EBITDA margin, excluding IFRS 12, stood at 63.8%, a decrease compared to the fourth quarter 2025. As a result of the higher concession fees in Mexico, additional headcount and increase in maintaining costs due to the new operations of the jet bridges and apron buses, a task that must now be operated directly by GAP, but was previously managed by the third party. This includes the impact on lower traffic and therefore lower revenues in Jamaica in the aftermath of the Hurricane Melissa.

Net, net income declined compared to the fourth quarter 2024, mainly due to the higher financial expense and decrease in the interest income due to a lower cash average balance. The effects as well as the lower interest rate. This is in addition to the provision of the deferred taxes adjustment in the aggregate balance of the year. Let us review the full year performance. 2025 was a year of a strong structural growth for GAP. Aeronautical revenues grew by 19.4%, driven mainly by the new tariff applied during 2025 and a 3.7% increase in passengers traffic in Mexico. Non-aeronautical revenue increased by 26.5% for the year, further underscoring the strategic importance of our commercial platform.

Non-aeronautical revenue per passenger increased to MXN 152 in 2025, compared to the MXN 123 in 2024, reflecting improved commercial execution, pricing optimization, and stronger contribution from cargo and modern warehouse operations. The consolidation of the business has become a meaningful contributor to our revenue diversification strategy and strengthen the long-term sustainability of our income streams. EBITDA increased by 17.8% year-over-year, reaching MXN 21.3 billion, with an EBITDA margin excluding IFRS 12 of 65.6%. Despite higher concession fees and a cost pressure, profitability remains solid and operational will remain disciplined. From a balance sheet perspective, as of December 31 of 2025, we closed the year with MXN 10.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

During the year, we strengthened our capital structure throughout the issuance of bond certificates, while reducing certain bank loans postures, maintaining flexibility to fund our long-term commitments. In terms of CapEx, throughout 2025, we invested MXN 12.4 billion. This was comprised by the first year of execution under the 2025-2029 Master Development Program, CapEx in our Jamaican airports, and the commercial investments. The CapEx for the five-year period next year will be focused on major terminal expansion and capacity enhancements, positioning us strongly for the future passengers growth and expanded commercial opportunities. In December, at the Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting, the business combination between CBX and Terminal Agreement was approved.

This strategic transaction will allow us to further integrate and strengthen the Cross Border Xpress platform, enhancing operational efficiency, expanding services capabilities, and reinforcing our position in the cross-border passenger segment. The transaction is currently in the formalization process. We expect this to contribute positively to GAP's long-term value creation strategy. Let me touch on international expansion opportunities. The Turks and Caicos tender process was ultimately canceled by the government. As has been our track record, we remain disciplined in our capital allocation decisions and are remaining focused on projects that meet our strategic and financial return criteria. Therefore, we continue evaluating growth opportunities that complement our existing portfolio strengths over our shareholders' value. Before I continue with the presentation, I want to address the recent events concerning to the state of Jalisco, namely Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta.

Certain incidents were reported throughout different locations of the state of Jalisco on February 22, and I just want to affirm that GAP's facilities, the Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta Airport, remained fully operational all weekend and up until this moment. As many of you may be aware, the terminals are under the protection of the Mexican National Guard, as well as the Minister of National Defense, as part of the permanent coordination and security measures with the federal authorities. From an operational standpoint, we experienced flight cancellations, including 171 flights in Guadalajara and 134 flights in Puerto Vallarta during February 22 and 23. However, yesterday, February 24, we only had four cancellations in Puerto Vallarta and 11 in Guadalajara, and today all the operations are back to normal.

Thus, it has been a steady and consistent improvement from the weekend as we work to regain normally after events of the last weekend. The rest of our airport portfolio continue to operate without disruption at this stage. We don't anticipate any additional impact. We are monitoring the situation and will update the market as necessary. Back to the results and outlook. I would like to continue with a discussion on guidance, which does not include the CBX business combination and the technical assistant agreement internalization, which remain in the formalization process. Once the final timing of the consolidation is confirmed, we will update you on the results. Starting with C8, we expect 2026 to be another year of moderate growth, supported by the established structural drivers across our portfolio.

Passengers traffic is expected to grow between 2% and 5%, reflecting the consolidation of routes developed to date, estimated load factors, and the potential increase in frequencies and seat capacity across our network. On the revenue side, aeronautical revenues are projected to increase between 9% and 12%, driven by the implementation of current Maximum Tariff in Mexico and Kingston Airport in Jamaica, combined with traffic performance, inflation assumptions, and projected exchange rates. Non-aeronautical revenues are expected to continue expanding from 6% to 9%, driven by improved contract solution and traffic growth. As a result, total revenues are expected to grow between 8% and 11% year over year. We expect EBITDA to grow between 8% to 11%, while the EBITDA margins will remain solid at approximately 65% ±1%, reflecting continued operational discipline, while maintaining flexibility to absorb external volatilities.

Looking ahead, we remain confident in our strategic direction as we focus on our four growth pillars: strengthening connectivity, expanding commercial revenues, disciplined execution of our infrastructure program, and maintaining long-term leverage strategy. While external factors such as exchange rate volatility, natural events, and global uncertainty may generate temporary fluctuations, GAP's diversified airport portfolio, strong domestic demand base, disciplined capital structure, position us solidly to continue generating sustainable long-term value. We appreciate your continued trust and support in GAP. Thank you for joining us today, and we now open the floor to your questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, Raul. If you'd like to ask a question over the phone, please press star one at this moment. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing pound one. As a reminder, participants joining via webcast may submit questions at any time using the Q&A function. Again, everyone, to ask a question on the phone, press star one, and we'll pause briefly to form the queue. All right. Our first question comes from Gabriel Himelfarb of Scotiabank.

Gabriel Himelfarb (Associate Director)

Hi, good morning. Just can you give a bit of color on Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta, any cancellation seen or any lower booking? My second question goes for, is there, can you give a bit of color on, do you think you might be expanding your footprint on the U.S. besides the CBX? Thank you.

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Thank you, Gabriel. In the case of Guadalajara and Vallarta, as we noted, I mean, we saw on the Sunday, an important number of cancellations, more than 100 in both airports. For the Monday, we began to see an important recovery. I mean, just yesterday, we only had four cancellations in Puerto Vallarta and 11 in Guadalajara. Today, we are expecting that all the operations are back to normal. What we are seeing for sure had a, I mean, a major impact for on the ground on Sunday. But after that, the services from the airlines have gradually normalize, the normalization process.

Saying that, we are expecting that there will not be any additional impact for our airports in the coming days. Measuring like the big number of the impact of these two days, almost three days of impact, we are forecasting that, or we are seeing that the possible impact was around of 50,000 passengers in these both airports. Jumping to the second question, the footprint in the U.S. besides the CBX. For sure, in line with our discipline for capital allocation, we will continue to looking for other opportunities, and for sure, with the platform of the CBX in the U.S., it opens the possibilities for new investments in the U.S.

We will still looking for opportunities that be, that generates value to our shareholders and be completely accurate for the company. Yes, it will open the opportunity for additional or review additional projects in the U.S.

Gabriel Himelfarb (Associate Director)

Okay, thank you. Expecting the coming months, a decrease in traffic in Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta from international passengers?

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

I mean, We are expecting that the trends that we have seen in the last months continue. For the case of Guadalajara, as you know, we have a positive number with all the openings of new routes from Canadian market mainly, and also our recuperation or recovery from the classic VFR market. Guadalajara, Los Angeles, and South California, in general terms. In the coming months, we will have the first two matches for the last elimination on this for the World Cup. Yeah, we are expecting some additional passengers for sure in the coming months.

I mean, in general terms, connecting with this terrible news of the weekend, we are not expecting any further impact on the traffic.

Gabriel Himelfarb (Associate Director)

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Enrique Cantú of GBM.

Enrique Cantú (Analyst)

Hi, thank you for taking my question. Regarding the pending tariff adjustments, could you provide more detail on expected timing and visibility around the implementation?

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Yes. I mean, just going back on that last year, as you remember, in March of the last year, We have, we increased 15% of general passenger seating all of our airports. In September 1st, we add another 7.5%, for January, on January 1st, we increase in general terms, around 5%-6%, depending on the airport. For all of that, we are seeing that the maximum price for the year, for sure, depending on the effects, effect of the petrodollar, we are growing around 95% of fulfillment. In the summer, we will have two additional increases for two of our airports, Vallarta and Los Cabos.

With all these put in place, we think that we could achieve the 95% of fulfillment on time.

Gabriel Himelfarb (Associate Director)

Okay, perfect. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

We will now move to questions submitted through the webcast platform. I'll turn the call over to Alejandra Soto, Investor Relations Officer, to read the questions. Please go ahead.

Alejandra Soto (Investor Relations Officer)

Thank you. We have one question from Alberto Valerio from UBS, and he's asking: Regarding your guidance, can you break down traffic increase expectations for Mexico and Jamaica, and how you are seeing the recovery from the Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica and the World Cup impact in Mexico? Well, the other question, it was already explained. Yes.

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

In terms of traffic, we are seeing in our guidance an increase on traffic, the in traffic that goes from 2%-5%. In general terms, what we are seeing for Jamaica is we are seeing a continuous recovery on the hotel capacity for Montego Bay, mainly. What we are seeing is that for the end of the year could be around -2% to 0% on increase of passengers. What is important to have in mind is that the two main peaks of the terminal, you know, Montego Bay, or the two moments of increase of passengers is the spring season and the winter season.

On this spring season, I will say that there will be a large and important impact of the number of available hotel rooms in Jamaica. We will expect that in this spring, winter, spring season, the decrease of passengers continue. For the winter season, that is the second big high season for Montego Bay, we are expecting that a fully recovery of the total capacity of hotels on the island. With that in mind, we are expecting that -2% to 0% on Jamaica.

Alejandra Soto (Investor Relations Officer)

Thank you, Raúl. It is the only question on the webcast, so I will turn the call again to the question on the floor.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We do have a question from Julia Orsi of JPMorgan.

Yes. Hello, everyone. Good morning. Just a question on capital allocation. Now that the Turks and Caicos process is pretty much over, can you comment a bit on what's the priority on the capital allocation side? That's it.

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Thank you, Julia. I will say that in the first half of the year, we will be focused on all what means CBX and bring in all the efficiencies to our company. That will be, I think, the one of the biggest new projects bringing to the company. Parallel to that, we are working in other projects and looking for other projects that could be interest for us. We will continue reviewing opportunities on the cargo facilities business. I would say with the discipline that is like the part of the D&A of the company, we will continue only on projects that are completely accredited for our company.

With that in mind, we will, as always, continue reviewing different projects, but for the moment, the only focus that we will have to bring additional value is all the process to bring CBX and the synergies of CBX to the company.

Julia Orsi (Equity Research Associate)

Got it. Thank you. Just a follow-up on the CBX. What is the expected timeline for the deal to be fully, you know, integrated into GAP? I mean, do you have any updates on, like, maybe the expected synergies throughout the year? How much should we capture this year?

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Yes. I mean, in general terms, what we are talking about the formalization process, we are in the middle of that. We are expecting that in the second quarter of the year, we could fully consolidate all the transactions. In terms of the efficiency, it will be gradually on the year. I will say that it will begin with the consolidation of the second quarter. For the fourth quarter, we could show a important efficiencies on the CBX consolidation process. I would say that the full program of what we think that could be the synergies of the company, we're gonna look it fully implemented for the half of the year of 2027. That would be, I mean, the...

our first view of what we think that will happen for on all these project of CBX.

Got it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

There are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to Mr. Raúl Revuelta for closing remarks.

Raúl Revuelta (CEO)

Thank you once again for joining us today. Please contact our investor relations team with any additional questions you may have. Have a great day, and thank you for your attention

Operator (participant)

That concludes our meeting today. You may now disconnect.