Proficient Auto Logistics - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 revenue was $95.21M, up 0.7% QoQ and down 0.4% YoY; GAAP net loss was $(3.19)M and GAAP EPS was $(0.12), with Adjusted EBITDA of $7.76M and Adjusted Operating Ratio of 98.7%.
• Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue was a slight miss ($95.21M vs $96.15M*) and EPS was a significant miss (GAAP $(0.12) vs $0.02*), while EBITDA was below consensus ($7.76M vs $8.33M*); values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
• Management guided Q2 2025 to high single-digit sequential revenue growth with incremental margins of 20–25% and improved profitability; April was a record month, though tariff-driven volatility in imports tempered late-April/May trajectory.
• Strategic positives: $60M annualized new contract wins ramping from mid-Q1, Brothers Auto Transport acquired April 1 to boost company-delivery mix, and continued systems integration; key headwinds include weaker spot pricing, dedicated fleet at minimums, and tariff/macro uncertainty impacting SAAR and import flows.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• “March proved to be a strong month,” with unit volume +17% YoY and revenue +11% YoY (ATG not in prior year), helping deliver Q1 results similar to Q4 in revenue, adjusted OR, and adjusted EBITDA.
• “Proficient gained significant new business during the first quarter … as much as $60 million to our top line on an annual basis,” with smooth onboarding leveraging sub-haul breadth and redeployment of equipment/drivers.
• Acquisition of Brothers Auto Transport closed April 1, providing Northeast/Mid-Atlantic density; faster integration than prior deals with conversion to common TMS in Q2 and accounting by July 1.

What Went Wrong

• Pricing weakness and reduced spot opportunities: revenue per unit down ~9% YoY and spot revenue premium only ~25–30% vs >100% in early 2024; dedicated fleet revenue fell to $4.3M from $6.4M in Q1 2024.
• Tariff-related volatility: import flows showed pull-forward ahead of early-April 25% tariffs, then deceleration; OEMs are adjusting production/import mix amid rising costs and policy uncertainty.
• Operating leverage pressure: Adjusted Operating Ratio remained elevated at 98.7% and GAAP operating loss was $(2.36)M, reflecting lower revenue per unit and mix shift toward subhaulers.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Proficient Auto Logistics first quarter financial information conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Brad Wright, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Brad Wright (CFO)

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm Brad Wright, Chief Financial Officer of Proficient Auto Logistics. Thank you for joining us on our first quarter 2025 earnings call. Under SEC rules, our Form 10-Q covering the three-month periods ending March 31, 2025 and 2024 will include financial statements for both the predecessor accounting entity, Proficient Auto Transport, and the successor entity, Proficient Auto Logistics. We are not required to provide, and the Form 10-Q will not contain pro forma financial data for the combined companies. However, our earnings release provides comparative summary combined financial information for the first quarter 2025 to the three-month periods ending December 31, 2024, and March 31, 2024 for the combined companies. Our earnings release can be found under the Investor Relations section of our website at proficientautologistics.com. Our 10-Q, when filed, can also be found under the Investor Relations section of our website.

During this call, we will be discussing certain forward-looking information. This information is based on our current expectations, and it is not a guarantee of future performance. I encourage you to review the cautionary statement in our earnings release describing factors that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed by our forward-looking statements. Further information can be found in our SEC filings. During this call, we may also refer to measures that include adjusted operating income, adjusted operating ratio, EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA. Please refer to the portions of our earnings release that provide reconciliations of those profitability measures to GAAP measures such as operating earnings and earnings before income taxes. Joining me on today's call are Rick O'Dell, Proficient Auto Logistics Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Amy Rice, our President and Chief Operating Officer.

We'll provide a company update as well as an overview of the company's combined results for the first quarter. After our prepared remarks, we'll open the call to questions. During the Q&A, please limit yourself to one question plus one follow-up. You can then get back into the queue if you have additional questions. Now, I'd like to introduce Rick O'Dell, who will provide the company update.

Rick O'Dell (CEO)

Thank you, Brad, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start with an overview of our operations during the first quarter and some trends that provide insight into our expectations for future quarters. The first quarter of this year was characterized by two different portions. January through mid-February was a period of unusually low volume, continuing weak revenue per unit, and disruptive weather. January unit volume was up 1% versus January of 2024. The revenue for the combined group, which included ATG this year and excluded ATG last year, was lower by 17.3% year-over year. Through mid-February, when we spoke to you regarding our fourth quarter of 2024, year-to-date revenue was still up by approximately 17.5% versus the fourth quarter of the prior year.

However, you will recall that we alluded to expectations for a stronger March enabled by new contract visibility at the time that would produce a full first quarter that was essentially in line with the fourth quarter of 2024 from both a revenue and profitability standpoint. As you saw in our earnings release, that is, in fact, where we ended up with revenue, adjusted operating ratio, and adjusted EBITDA substantially similar to the fourth quarter of 2024. March proved to be a strong month for deliveries, with our unit volume 17% higher than the same month of 2024 and revenue up by 11% versus March of 2024, which did not include Auto Transport Group. Industry sales were particularly strong in March, with auto SAR reaching 17.8 million units, the highest monthly mark since April of 2021.

By comparison, the National Auto Dealers Association reported SAR of 15.6 million for January and 16 million for February. Most industry observers attribute the increased sales volume in March to a pull forward of sales driven by the expected 25% tariffs in early April on imported automobiles announced by the current administration. April auto sales and deliveries started very strong on the same basis, but industry data seems to indicate a decelerating sales trend through the month of April, which carried into May. Automotive services and technology company Cox Automotive estimates that April SAR ended at approximately 16.4 million. In turn, we saw a very strong April, though we are seeing moderation in transportation volume, especially from imported vehicles.

The economic impact of tariffs both on our customers and the ultimate consumer and the uncertainty of additional policy changes has meaningfully impacted the outlook for 2025 with respect to auto demand and the shifting automotive supply chain. During April, analysts at Goldman Sachs cut their full-year projected SAR to 15.4 million units, down from 16.3 million previously. Cox Automotive and Morningstar have reduced their forecasts to 15.6 million and 15.5 million, respectively. Morgan Stanley and GlobalData have posted fair case scenarios of 15 million and 14.9 million, respectively, which we hope will be avoided with recent relief on the stacking of automotive tariffs. Obviously, the strength of the consumer economy will also be a key factor. Our OEM customers are dealing with this economic uncertainty and the prospect of significantly increased costs relative to their expectations in real time.

They're making decisions about where their production occurs and whether to curtail imports both on a near-term and a structural basis. Their decisions on these critical issues will have a significant bearing on the environment that Proficient will navigate over the remainder of 2025. That being said, we're confident in our network's capability to assist with these changing needs. Even as we assess the impact of these industry headwinds, Proficient remains focused on our long-term objectives, including continued increases in our market share and the effective integration of our merged operating companies, driving improved efficiency, providing high-quality service, and improved profitability. As we've reported in the past communications, Proficient gained significant new business during the first quarter of this year that we expect will contribute as much as $60 million to our top line on an annual basis.

Our national footprint proved its value during the onboarding of these new commitments, flexing the breadth of our sub-haul channel and enabling the transfer of surplus revenue-generating equipment and drivers to new volume without impacting existing business elsewhere in our network. In the event that overall industry demand for auto hauling services remains weak, we anticipate that there could be additional financial stress on undercapitalized industry participants. Proficient will protect its strong balance sheet position and focus on efficiently serving customers and will capitalize on market share opportunities as they are presented. We were also pleased to announce the closing of the acquisition of Brothers Auto Transport on April 1st. This strategic addition increases our presence and density in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions and provides new load-sharing opportunities and other efficiencies to our existing operations.

The introduction of Brothers operations has gone smoothly with seamless service for our new customers there, and the integration effort is moving much more quickly than prior acquisitions as we have solidified systems, process, and structure in our organization. In addition to our previously merged six companies being on the common transportation management system, Brothers Auto Transport will be converted to this technology during the second quarter. All companies, including Brothers, will be using our common accounting and reporting system by July 1st as well. I'll now turn it over to Brad to cover some key financial highlights.

Brad Wright (CFO)

Thank you, Rick. I'll start with a few summary statistics. All prior-year comparisons are for the combined companies, which did not include ATG in Q1 but did include ATG in Q4. Fourth quarter 2024 amounts reflect final audited results. Operating revenue of $95.2 million in the quarter was up 1% from last quarter but down less than 1% from the prior year. Units delivered of 494,509 represented a 5% decrease compared to last quarter and a 21% increase from the first quarter of 2024. Revenue per unit, excluding fuel surcharge, was approximately $177, up approximately 5% from the previous quarter but down approximately 9% from Q1 2024. Company deliveries were 35% of revenue in the quarter, unchanged from Q4. Therefore, sub-haul deliveries were 65% of revenue this quarter, also unchanged from the prior quarter.

Our OEM contract business generated approximately 91% of total transportation revenue, continuing a trend in place through the second half of 2024. Our dedicated fleet service generated revenue of $4.3 million during the first quarter, up from $3.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 but down by 33% from $6.4 million in the first quarter of 2024. We continue to expect that the dedicated fleet business will contribute between $4 million and $5 million of revenue per quarter in 2025. Our revenue from spot opportunities during the quarter comprised 4.3% of total revenue at approximately $3.7 million, unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2024 but down from $13.8 million in the first quarter of last year. The average revenue per unit premium for spot buy during the quarter was approximately 25%-30%. The modest increase in the proportion of revenue from company deliveries is consistent with communicated expectation.

Likewise, the addition of Brothers Auto Transport in the second quarter will facilitate higher company deliveries as their business is heavily skewed to company deliveries at approximately 90%. The company had approximately $10.9 million in cash and equivalents on March 31, 2025. Aggregate debt balance at quarter-end to approximately $79.2 million for net debt of $68.3 million. Our CapEx spend on revenue-generating equipment during 2025 will depend heavily on market conditions. Our current expectation is for approximately $15 million of CapEx for the full year. However, this amount could increase if pending bids on new business result in increased requirements later in the year. Total common shares outstanding ended the quarter at 27 million, essentially unchanged from December 31, 2024. Looking to the second quarter, the market strength in March that Rick described earlier continued through much of April before starting to subside.

Despite the impact of tariffs on imported volume and slowing sales, we are projecting sequential quarter growth in total revenue in the high single digits for the quarter ending in June. At expected revenue levels for Q2 above fixed cost coverage, we also expect improved profitability. We will be closely monitoring the steps taken by our OEM customer base over the coming months to gain better visibility beyond the current quarter. At this time, we continue to expect the full-year performance to outpace 2024. While initial expectations for 2025 included an improving market as we moved into the second quarter and beyond, as well as gains in market share, our current expectations for the year rely more heavily on market share gains and the addition of Brothers to offset a weaker market in the achievement of year-over-year gains.

Nonetheless, we continue to see a path to profitable performance and will advance strategic imperatives to position Proficient as an industry leader. Operator will now take questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Our first question comes from the line of Bruce Chan with Stifel. Your line is now open.

Bruce Chan (Director and Senior Analyst)

Hi, Rick. Good afternoon, Rick, Amy, and Brad. Probably the statement of the year today, there's been a lot of change to the market over the past year. Wondering if it's fair to say that pricing has softened and demand has softened a bit, but consolidation has certainly happened faster than expected, and you still have a lot of big opportunities for market share growth. You've executed on the integration, and you've got two more deals under your belt. I guess my question is, if you think about all of those puts and takes, are we at a point where this business can achieve, call it, a dollar or more in earnings power next year if SAR stays around $16 million or slightly below $16 million, or do we need it to get higher than that to see that kind of earnings power?

Rick O'Dell (CEO)

Yeah, I think obviously the outlook for this year is pretty uncertain with all the dynamics in the marketplace, but I guess I would say we're extremely encouraged. Obviously, there was some pre-buy in the recent market ahead of the tariffs, but we had record revenue in April, and I don't think you can do that in the current market. If you sort of just annualize what that revenue level would be, we would expect to operate materially better than our kind of current break-even type level, more at a 90% type operating ratio in a normalized environment.

Bruce Chan (Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay. That's helpful. Maybe just for the follow-up, looking for some insights into customer behavior. You talked about the response to what's obviously been a very dynamic tariff environment. You've also had some material changes on the competitive front. Are you hearing anything in terms of potential restocking once we sort of get past this air pocket? Are customers pulling bids forward or delaying tenders? What are you seeing in terms of renewal rates on contracts?

Amy Rice (President and COO)

Sure. A few points there. On the current landscape, OEMs are taking a variety of actions or inactions. For example, certain importers have just continued business as usual and figure that the landscape for tariffs will become clearer in time, and they will continue to adjust in real time as that occurs. Others have chosen to hold cars in the hopes of getting better information on which to make decisions, and therefore they have stopped the flow of their cars, if not entirely, substantially relative to what would be considered normal. There has been a little bit of pull-forward activity trying to get ahead of the tariffs, but as you know, they came on relatively quickly, and it is difficult to shift a lot of production volume very quickly. A little bit of pull-forward, I would not say that that was significant in the transportation flows.

What happens from here will be the decisions around mix between domestic production and what continues to be imported, which models have the economic characteristics to continue to participate in the domestic market, and how retail pricing plays out in a post-tariff environment. A lot of that is still pending. The second part of your question was around pricing renewals, and you alluded to this in your earlier question. The current market is relatively weak for pricing power. The OEMs are under significant cost pressure and are looking for some relief on cost in their supply chain from any source that they can find it. To the extent that those bids are taking place at the current moment, it's a little more challenging to push the value proposition relative to the price lever. We've got to balance those carefully.

Bruce Chan (Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay. Great. I'll hop back in queue for the rest. Appreciate it.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tyler Brown with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Tyler Brown (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good afternoon.

Richard O'Dell (CEO)

Good afternoon, Tyler.

Tyler Brown (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, Amy. I don't know if this is the right question. I'm going to ask it anyway. What is your mix between domestically produced autos, say, moving out of a domestic OEM and basically an imported VIN that's maybe being moved out of, say, a port?

Amy Rice (President and COO)

We would estimate that we are roughly 60% domestic, 40% imported. Some of that imported volume we take directly from port locations, and some of it rails inland, and then we take it from a railhead to its ultimate destination. There is a little bit of blurring of those freight flows, but we think we are predominantly domestic with probably 30-40% on the import side.

Tyler Brown (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Nope. That's very helpful. That helps me shape that. Okay.

Amy Rice (President and COO)

I would tell you so, and as you would expect, there's a regional flavor to that, of course. The East and West have a heavier component of the import shares just being in the port locations.

Tyler Brown (Equity Research Analyst)

Right. Right. Makes sense. Okay. Brad, a couple of maybe housekeeping items or maybe a couple of things you could help us with. So just roughly, how much does Brothers do annually in revenue?

Brad Wright (CFO)

I think you could look for it's smaller than ATG, right, but not significantly smaller. We'd call it maybe three-quarters of it.

Tyler Brown (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. I forget exactly. Something like 30 million? Does that seem?

Brad Wright (CFO)

A little lighter than that, Tyler.

Tyler Brown (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. A little lighter than that. Okay. But in the 10-K, I think you mentioned specifically that the cessation of one of your large customers or, sorry, large competitors could bump revenues by, say, 15%. And I think that's about, call it, $60 million of incremental revenue. One, I'm curious if that has changed at all, up or down. And to be clear, that number does not include any additional outstanding contract wins or bids. Number two, I think you said it was going to ramp. Can you just help us size what that incremental revenue would be in 2025? And maybe if you could put those two together, roughly how much incremental revenue in 2025 should we see from those?

Amy Rice (President and COO)

Yep. The $60 million figure is annualized. The new business started mid-first quarter and ramped up as we moved through the quarter. We're getting to a normalized run rate of what would be roughly $60 million annualized. In terms of other market share gains, there remains potential for us to win incremental business as we continue moving through the year. We've been in the practice of sharing with the market net new gains on a quarter-by-quarter basis.

Tyler Brown (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. That's helpful. My last one, just real quick, Brad, on the Q2 commentary, I think you said high single-digit sequential move in revenue. Would EBITDA be pretty similar, or should we think it's slightly better or slightly worse than high single digits? Just any color there would be helpful. Thank you.

Brad Wright (CFO)

Yeah. So I think what you would see at that level of revenue is improvement at the adjusted OR line, which would carry down to EBITDA too, Tyler. I mean, you're probably not still to where we intend to be, but you're probably into the mid-90s at that point.

Tyler Brown (Equity Research Analyst)

I think a mid.

Brad Wright (CFO)

That's helpful.

Tyler Brown (Equity Research Analyst)

Kind of a targeted incremental margins would be in the 20%-25% range.

Brad Wright (CFO)

Okay. Yeah. That's very helpful.

Tyler Brown (Equity Research Analyst)

That's like a good rule of thumb.

Brad Wright (CFO)

Yeah. I think that's right.

Tyler Brown (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Okay. All right. Cool. Thank you, guys.

Richard O'Dell (CEO)

Ask for some outlier self-insurance expense or something like that.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Merkel with William Blair. Your line is now open.

Mike Francis (Equity Research Associate)

Hey, guys. This is Mike Francis for Ryan. Thanks for taking the questions. First off, I was curious if you'd get a little more color into April. You said it was a record month, but can you give us sort of an idea of what growth was like in that quarter? As it goes for Q2, what does that imply for the rest of the second quarter growth?

Richard O'Dell (CEO)

I think we're being a little bit conservative just given the market uncertainty. I guess what we're kind of our current outlook would be 8% incremental revenue over the first quarter.

Mike Francis (Equity Research Associate)

Okay. And then.

Amy Rice (President and COO)

I can give you a little bit of a sense there. I mean, we gave you some indication of how March compared to last year. April compared more favorably to last year than March. Again, we did see a sequential gain from March to April, even as we look on a year-over-year comparative basis. We did though see a bit of a pulling back, right, towards the end of the month that has carried forward here into early May. Our expectations for May and June remain at a level that is lower than what we saw in April, absent a change or easing in tariff policy that might catalyze something that today is not known.

Mike Francis (Equity Research Associate)

Okay. And then other question for me, M&A, finished Brothers in the quarter. Should we expect there to be more sort of opportunities, or with there being some uncertainty in the market, is that something that's probably locked up for the next few quarters?

Richard O'Dell (CEO)

Yeah. I think we'll take a cautious approach to the next step and kind of see what the market dynamics are and gauge our operating performance in this volatile environment before we move forward aggressively. That being said, we are starting to see some distressed assets come to market, and we'll just be smart about the opportunities that we pursue and those that we would want to pass by.

Mike Francis (Equity Research Associate)

All right. That's all good for me. I'll pass it on. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is a follow-up from Bruce Chan with Stifel. Your line is now open.

Bruce Chan (Director and Senior Analyst)

Yeah. Thanks for the follow-up here. Just wanted to get a better sense of capacity, maybe both in your model and in the industry. Is there a percentage that you're kind of thinking about now for both? What does the order book for new equipment look like? Maybe just to help investors understand, if you could talk about the delivery timeline for that new equipment as well.

Amy Rice (President and COO)

Sure. From a capacity perspective, I would say in the current market environment, most of your players have got some slack capacity, but the industry overall had a large player exit the space. If automotive volumes were to return in a sustainable way, I think the industry would feel a crunch on capacity. In the current environment, I think things are not overly tight just because it's a little bit of an uncertain and relatively unfavorable environment. In terms of our order book on equipment, we do have some new equipment that's coming in, relatively modest in absolute numbers. We do have sort of a destination for that new equipment to be deployed. That's really how we're looking at the market for incremental new builds in the near term.

If we gain incremental business and we need additional trucks to support it, we intend to do that. To the latter part of your question on delivery timelines, there is new equipment that is available either partially or fully built right now. The market for used equipment is also becoming more available. I would say likely aged used equipment is starting to come to market, but there is not a scarcity or a long lead time to order new equipment at the current juncture.

Bruce Chan (Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay. Amy, when you think about the capacity from that shuttered competitor, do you have a sense of how much of that comes back in to serve specifically the new vehicle market?

Amy Rice (President and COO)

The fleet of the player that left the industry was not a newer fleet in its average life. I'm not sure that much of that equipment would be retained in the new vehicle market. Some of it may move downstream into the remarketed and secondary space. I don't have specific numbers or estimates there to share, but that would just be my supposition.

Bruce Chan (Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay. That's helpful. Then just one final quick one. I know it's a little bit speculative, but there's been some talk of tax changes with respect to interest on auto payments. Have you had any discussion with customers about what that could mean for demand and SAR?

Amy Rice (President and COO)

We really haven't. I mean, tariffs and production and supply chain strategy is the gorilla in the room for our customers right now. I think, of course, they are also focused on the incentive space and what drives end customer demand, but I think they're tackling the biggest first.

Bruce Chan (Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay. Great. That's all for me. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the call back over to Rick O'Dell for closing remarks.

Richard O'Dell (CEO)

Thank you for your interest in Proficient Auto Logistics. We're excited about April being a record month. While it's a difficult environment, we have a high level of confidence in our ability to manage through this and are confident that also that our network is going to be helpful to the OEMs as they manage through this dynamic environment with the potential changes of routing that could result from some of the changes to their supply chain.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.