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Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 FY2026 delivered broad-based beats: revenue $2.474B (+16% y/y) and non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.93, both above guidance; non-GAAP operating margin reached 30.2% and total gross margin 76.9% .
  • Strategic catalysts: announced definitive agreement to acquire Chronosphere for $3.35B (ARR >$160M, triple-digit growth) to extend into observability, and reiterated pending CyberArk acquisition to expand identity security; management raised long-term ARR target to $20B by FY2030 .
  • Guidance raised at the FY level: FY2026 revenue to $10.50–$10.54B (from $10.475–$10.525B), non-GAAP EPS to $3.80–$3.90 (from $3.75–$3.85), and operating margin to 29.5%–30.0% (from 29.2%–29.7%); Q2 FY2026 guided to revenue $2.57–$2.59B and non-GAAP EPS $0.93–$0.95 .
  • Key demand signals: NGS ARR $5.9B (+29% y/y), RPO $15.5B (+24% y/y); product revenue grew +23% y/y, and software form factors now 44% of TTM product revenue; SASE ARR surpassed $1.3B (+34% y/y) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Platformization wins and large deals across SASE and XSIAM, including a $100M deal with a U.S. telecom and a $33M U.S. federal SASE award; management emphasized faster MTTR and consolidation benefits driving share gains .
  • Profitability improved: non-GAAP operating margin reached 30.2% (second consecutive quarter above 30%), product gross margin expanded sequentially by 340 bps to 80.2%; adjusted free cash flow was $1.7B (+17%) .
  • AI and quantum positioning: Prisma AIRS 2.0 and Agentix launch underpin AI security momentum; IBM partnership to deliver quantum-safe readiness service enhances differentiation in post-quantum security .

What Went Wrong

  • RPO sequentially declined from $15.8B in Q4 FY2025 to $15.5B in Q1 FY2026, though still +24% y/y; management notes back-half weighting for net new ARR and revenue as platformization cycles lengthen .
  • GAAP EPS declined y/y to $0.47 (from $0.49), reflecting higher GAAP operating costs and tax provision; non-GAAP still grew to $0.93 .
  • Chronosphere integration and CyberArk timing introduce interim complexity; management expects ≥37% adjusted FCF margin in FY2026 including acquisitions (timing dependent), with 40%+ targeted by FY2028 .

Financial Results

Revenue and EPS (Quarterly)

MetricQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026
Total Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.289 $2.536 $2.474
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.80 $0.95 $0.93
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.37 $0.36 $0.47

Q1 2026 Actuals vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricConsensusActual
Total Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.462*$2.474
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.891*$0.93
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$773.6*$374.2*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown (Revenue)

Metric ($USD Millions)Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026
Product$452.7 $573.9 $434.0
Subscription and Support$1,836.3 $1,962.4 $2,040.0
Total$2,289.0 $2,536.3 $2,474.0

KPIs

KPIQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026
NGS ARR ($USD Billions)$5.1 $5.6 $5.9
RPO ($USD Billions)$13.5 $15.8 $15.5

Margin Detail (Q1 2026)

MetricQ1 2026
Total Gross Margin %76.9%
Product Gross Margin %80.2%
Services Gross Margin %76.2%
Non-GAAP Operating Margin %30.2%

Additional Q1 color: Americas +14%, EMEA +18%, JPAC +22% y/y; product revenue +23% y/y; subscription and support +14% y/y; software form factors are 44% of TTM product revenue (vs 38% TTM ending Q1 FY2025) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Billions)FY 2026$10.475–$10.525 $10.50–$10.54 Raised
Non-GAAP Operating Margin %FY 202629.2%–29.7% 29.5%–30.0% Raised
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)FY 2026$3.75–$3.85 $3.80–$3.90 Raised
Adjusted FCF Margin %FY 202638.0%–39.0% 38%–39% Maintained
NGS ARR ($USD Billions)FY 2026$7.00–$7.10 $7.00–$7.10 Maintained
RPO ($USD Billions)FY 2026$18.6–$18.7 $18.6–$18.7 Maintained
Revenue ($USD Billions)Q2 2026N/A$2.57–$2.59 New
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)Q2 2026N/A$0.93–$0.95 New
NGS ARR ($USD Billions)Q2 2026N/A$6.11–$6.14 New
RPO ($USD Billions)Q2 2026N/A$15.75–$15.85 New

Management further reiterated ≥37% adjusted FCF margin in FY2026 including CyberArk and Chronosphere depending on timing, and 40%+ by FY2028 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 & Q4)Current Period (Q1 FY2026)Trend
Platformization & ARR ScaleCrossed $5B NGS ARR; consolidator narrative . FY2025 exit at $10B+ revenue run-rate; RPO acceleration .60 net new platformizations; NGS ARR $5.9B; large XSIAM/SASE deals .Strengthening
AI Security (Prisma AIRS, Agentix)Continued AI leverage in offerings (broad platform mentions) .Prisma AIRS 2.0 momentum; Agentix launch for autonomous remediation; AIRS deals doubled q/q .Accelerating
Identity Strategy (CyberArk)Announced agreement to acquire CyberArk to expand identity .Integration on track; identity as next platform; closing expected in fiscal Q3 .Building
Observability (Chronosphere)No prior observability asset; adjacencies discussed at high level .$3.35B Chronosphere acquisition (ARR >$160M, triple-digit growth); combine with Agentix for agentic remediation .New vector
Quantum-Safe ReadinessDelivered enterprise-wide quantum security in FY2025 .IBM joint solution; PanOS 12.1 Orion; cipher translation; urgency (“harvest now, decrypt later”) .Intensifying
Secure Browser AdoptionLimited disclosure previously.7.5M browsers sold; bookings ~4x y/y; strategic endpoint for SASE .Early but strong

Management Commentary

  • “We exceeded expectations across every guided metric... achieving our second straight quarter of 30-plus % operating margin.” — Nikesh Arora (CEO) .
  • “SASE had a phenomenal quarter. ARR grew 34% y/y and surpassed $1.3B... we now have ~6,800 SASE customers.” — Nikesh Arora .
  • “Total revenue reached $2.47B (+16%), product revenue grew 23% y/y... software form factors are 44% of TTM product revenue.” — Dipak Golechha (CFO) .
  • “Diluted non-GAAP EPS reached $0.93... adjusted free cash flow $1.7B... cash and cash equivalents now over $10B.” — Dipak Golechha .
  • “We are raising our expectations from $15B to $20B in ARR for FY2030.” — Nikesh Arora .
  • “Chronosphere... able to deliver full observability at a third of the cost... we will run it largely standalone post-close.” — Nikesh Arora and Dipak Golechha .

Q&A Highlights

  • Identity in an agentic future: Management argues true identity security hinges on privileged access controls; expects privilege concepts to extend to most identities over time, with CyberArk as the core platform .
  • Observability rationale (Chronosphere): Built to ingest petabytes at LLM scale with low latency and 1/3 cost; plan to combine observability signals with Agentix for autonomous remediation; CIO/CEO-level buyer focus .
  • Quantum urgency: Customers increasingly plan for “harvest now, decrypt later” risks; PANW’s Orion and cipher translation enable immediate quantum-safe posture, with IBM delivering services and roadmaps .
  • Secure browser ubiquity: 7.5M sold; browser is now the primary workspace and major threat vector; monetization tied to SASE with long-term ubiquity goals .
  • Profitability path with M&A: Management targets ≥37% adjusted FCF margin near term including acquisitions, and 40%+ by FY2028; expects relatively modest interim dilution impact given scale .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 FY2026 beat: Revenue $2.474B vs consensus $2.462B; non-GAAP EPS $0.93 vs consensus $0.891; EBITDA (SPGI methodology) was below consensus ($374.2M vs $773.6M), reflecting differing definitions versus reported non-GAAP operating metrics*.
  • Q2 FY2026: Consensus revenue $2.577B and EPS $0.939 align with company guidance ranges; minimal implied revision risk unless deal timing or macro changes*.
  • FY2026: Consensus revenue $10.523B and EPS $3.820 closely track updated guidance $10.50–$10.54B and $3.80–$3.90, suggesting limited estimate dispersion post-raise*.

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • PANW’s platformization strategy is translating into large consolidating deals, faster customer outcomes (MTTR reductions), and durable ARR growth; this underpins above-30% non-GAAP operating margin performance .
  • Strategic expansion into identity (CyberArk) and observability (Chronosphere) broadens the data/security fabric, positioning PANW to monetize AI and post-quantum transitions across multiple enterprise data planes .
  • Near-term trading catalysts: continued estimate stability around raised FY2026 guidance, plus Chronosphere deal closure timeline and IBM quantum-safe solution launch; watch for back-half weighted ARR and product revenue strength .
  • SASE and software firewalls are growth engines (SASE ARR >$1.3B, +34% y/y; product revenue +23% y/y, with rising software mix), supporting higher gross margins and recurring visibility .
  • Risks: integration complexity (dual acquisitions), potential interim margin/FCF variability, and macro/IT budget pacing; management still targets ≥37% adjusted FCF margin near term and 40%+ by FY2028 .
  • Quantum-safe readiness and secure browser adoption are differentiated themes that can expand TAM and deepen customer platform reliance over the next 2–3 years .
  • Long-term thesis: raising FY2030 ARR target to $20B on core, identity, and observability pillars suggests sustained multi-year growth runway with operating leverage intact .

References

  • Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript
  • Q1 FY2026 8-K Earnings Release and Exhibits
  • Q1 FY2026 Press Release
  • IBM Quantum-Safe Readiness Press Release
  • Q4 FY2025 Press Release
  • Q3 FY2025 Press Release
  • S&P Global consensus and actuals via GetEstimates (see tables; values retrieved from S&P Global)