Par Pacific - Earnings Call - Q1 2025
May 7, 2025
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 revenue beat while EPS missed: Revenue was $1.75B vs S&P Global consensus $1.48B, but normalized/adjusted EPS was $(0.94) vs $(0.79) expected; Adjusted EBITDA was $10.1M (S&P EBITDA consensus ~$10.4M; S&P recorded EBITDA “actual” $13.3M).
- Refining headwinds and outage: Off-season cracks, lower regional indices, and the February Wyoming incident drove a Refining operating loss $(24.7)M and segment Adjusted EBITDA of $(14.3)M; retail and logistics remained resilient (Retail +$18.6M, Logistics +$29.7M Adjusted EBITDA).
- Operations trajectory improving: Wyoming restarted a month early (late April), Montana turnaround near completion, and management noted the combined index up ~$6/bbl early in Q2 with tighter West Coast supply-demand dynamics.
- Capital allocation: Liquidity was $525M; Par repurchased $51M (3.6M shares) in Q1 and is operating under a refreshed $250M buyback authorization with no end date; management emphasized dynamic, opportunistic repurchases.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
- What Went Well
- Early Wyoming restart: “Safely bringing the facility back to full rates approximately 1 month early compared to our initial plans” (late April vs prior end-of-May plan).
- Retail/Logistics resilience: Retail Adjusted EBITDA rose to $18.6M (vs $14.1M LY) with same-store fuel +0.5% and inside sales +1.8%; Logistics Adjusted EBITDA improved to $29.7M (vs $28.1M LY).
- Capital returns and balance sheet: $51M repurchases reduced shares by ~5% in Q1; liquidity ended at $525M, supporting opportunistic capital allocation.
- What Went Wrong
- Refining margin compression and outage: Refining segment swung to $(24.7)M operating loss and $(14.3)M Adjusted EBITDA (vs $81.3M LY) driven by weaker regional indices and the Wyoming incident.
- Lower per-barrel economics: Hawaii index fell to $8.13/bbl (from $12.07), Montana to $7.07 (from $17.09), Washington to $4.15 (from $5.16); per-barrel adjusted gross margins declined year-over-year.
- Elevated unit costs in Wyoming during downtime: Production costs rose to $34.35/bbl (vs $7.86 LY) with low throughput (6 Mbpd), reflecting outage friction costs.
Transcript
Shawn Flores (SVP and CFO)
Good day and welcome to the Par Pacific first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, you may press star, then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would like now to turn the conference over to Ashimi Patel, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Ashimi Patel (VP of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Alan. Welcome to Par Pacific's first quarter earnings conference call. Joining me today are Will Monteleone, President and Chief Executive Officer; Richard Creamer, EVP of Refining and Logistics; and Shawn Flores, SVP and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, note that our comments today may include forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements are subject to change and are not guarantees of future performance or events. They are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Accordingly, investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them. I refer you to our investor presentation on our website and to our filings with the SEC for non-GAAP reconciliations and additional information. I'll now turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Will Monteleone.
Will Monteleone (President and CEO)
Thank you, Ashimi, and good morning, everyone. First quarter adjusted EBITDA was $10 million, and adjusted net loss was $0.94 per share. First quarter results reflect off-season conditions and the impacts of the Wyoming outage. Market conditions are improving, and our combined index is up by $6 per barrel so far this quarter. The Asian market remains narrowly balanced, and our outlook for our Hawaii refining business is strong. Meanwhile, the West Coast is benefiting from reduced supply from planned and unplanned maintenance, which is also tightening the western portions of the Rocky Mountain region. As we near completion of the Montana turnaround, we are focused on safely and reliably increasing rates for the summer driving season. Our retail business continues to deliver solid results. Quarterly, same-store fuel and in-store revenue increased by 0.5% and 1.8% compared to the first quarter of 2024.
Underlying profitability also improved, as demonstrated by our last 12 months' total adjusted EBITDA exceeding $80 million for the first time. We made considerable progress on key strategic objectives during the quarter and opportunistically reduced our shares outstanding by 5% compared to the end of 2024. We are well on our way to achieving our strategic priorities for the year. In Montana, we remain on time and on budget and are nearing mechanical completion of the turnaround. This outage reflects Montana's last major planned turnaround for the next four to five years. It also signals the transition of our efforts towards enhancing flexibility and competitiveness. In Wyoming, I would like to recognize the efforts of the team in safely bringing the facility back to full rates approximately one month early compared to our initial plans. Thank you all.
In Hawaii, SAF project construction is progressing to plan and remains scheduled for startup in the second half of the year. We have received and set major equipment and are proceeding with on-site work to complete the project. Despite policy uncertainty, our outlook for the project remains constructive due to the flexibility and structural advantages of the project. On-island commercial interest from airlines and other customers is encouraging as we move towards commissioning the project. Finally, we have progressed cost reduction efforts and are confident in achieving our previously stated targets. We remain in an excess capital position with ending liquidity of $525 million after completing share repurchases and progressing our major strategic items in the quarter. Our current share count is now below 52 million, a level we have not seen since 2019. Since then, our business is fundamentally stronger.
We benefit from structural earnings improvements in places like Hawaii, a broader geographic footprint, and business segment diversity, all of which contribute to a more durable earnings profile. We are well-positioned to manage the business through a range of environments while creatively growing our per-share earnings power. Our free cash flow outlook is improving due to solid demand in our niche markets and a significant decline in the capital requirements in the second half of the year. I'll now turn the call over to Richard to discuss our refining and logistics operations.
Richard Creamer (EVP of Refining and Logistics)
Thank you, Will. First quarter combined throughput was 176,000 bbl per day. In Hawaii, throughput was 79,000 bbl per day, and production costs were $4.81 per barrel. Throughput was impacted by a planned maintenance outage that included making final tie-ins for the Hawaii SAF project, reformer regeneration, and other routine maintenance. The completed activities paved the runway for our mid-year 2026 turnaround. Washington throughput was 39,000 bbl per day, and production costs were $4.16 per barrel. Washington completed a reformer outage in Q1, and throughput is reflective of seasonal demand on the West Coast. Shifting to Wyoming, I'm very pleased to report that the refinery safely returned to normal operations in late April following the mid-February furnace incident. The return to refinery operations is a full month ahead of our previous guidance of late May.
In addition to Will's comments, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the local team in Newcastle and the various support groups for their unwavering commitment to rebuilding and returning to operations safely and efficiently. Throughput in the first quarter was 6,000 barrels per day, and OpEx was elevated by $6 million due to the outage. We expect an additional $4 million in the second quarter. Finally, in Montana, first quarter throughput was 52,000 bbl per day, and production costs were $10.56 per barrel. As previously mentioned, the refinery team began the FCC and alky turnaround in early April and are now nearing mechanical completion with restart forthcoming. There have been a minimal amount of discovery items and critical path objectives have tracked the schedule. I can report that the turnaround is wrapping up on schedule and within cost targets.
Oil-in restart should occur in mid-May ahead of the summer driving season in the Rockies. Following the Montana activities, we have no major maintenance across our system for the remainder of the year. We are pleased with our progress to date on completing our first half focus on turnarounds and projects. This is setting the stage for the second half of reduced spending and a focus on building flexibility and reliability. Looking ahead to the second quarter, we expect Hawaii throughput between 81,000 blbl and 85,000 bbl per day, Washington between 40,000 bbl and 42,000 bbl, Wyoming between 13,000 bbl and 15,000 bbl, and Montana between 44,000 bbl and 47,000 bbl per day, which reflects reduced rates during the turnaround. This results in a system-wide throughput between 178,000 bbl and 189,000 bbl per day. I'll now turn the call over to Shawn to cover our financial results.
Shawn Flores (SVP and CFO)
Thank you, Richard. First quarter adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings were $10 million and a loss of $50 million or $0.94 per share. Our refining segment reported adjusted EBITDA loss of $14 million in the first quarter compared to a loss of $22 million in the fourth quarter. In Hawaii, the Singapore 312 averaged $13.12 per barrel, and our crude differential was $4.99, resulting in a Hawaii index of $8.13 per barrel. Hawaii margin capture was 109%, including a combined $4 million benefit from price lag and product crack hedging. Looking to the second quarter, our Hawaii crude differential is expected to land between $5 and $5.50 per barrel. In Wyoming, our index averaged $20.31 per barrel, and capture was 98%, near the top end of our guidance range. Favorable capture reflects higher sales volumes relative to throughput, driven by a drawdown of refined product inventory during the outage.
Under FIFO accounting, the capture impacts of the refinery downtime will be primarily reflected in our gross margin from early March to mid-May. In Montana, our index averaged $7.07 per barrel, and capture was 71%, driven by lower product yields as we approach the turnaround. Looking to the second quarter, we expect the margin capture impacts of the FCC and alky turnaround to be partially mitigated by a drawdown of clean product inventories. Lastly, our Washington index averaged $4.15 per barrel, and capture was 50%. Increased refinery maintenance and below-average product inventory levels have lifted margins in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Quarter to date, our Washington and Montana market indices have improved by approximately $8.00 and $14.00 per barrel, respectively, compared to the first quarter. Moving to the logistics segment, first quarter adjusted EBITDA was $30 million, in line with our mid-cycle run rate guidance.
Strong system utilization in Hawaii and Montana offset lower pipeline throughput in Wyoming. Our retail segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $19 million during the first quarter compared to $22 million in the fourth quarter. The above mid-cycle results continue to reflect improving in-store performance and strong fuel margins. Corporate expenses and adjusted EBITDA were $24 million in the first quarter. On our broader cost reduction initiative, we remain on track to achieve $30 million-$40 million in annual savings relative to 2024. Excluding the Wyoming repair expenses, consolidated operating costs totaled $203 million, or a $22 million reduction relative to the first quarter of last year. Turning to cash flows, cash used in operations was $1 million. This includes $28 million of turnaround expenditures and a $42 million working capital inflow, primarily driven by a reduction in prepaid assets, which returned to typical levels during the quarter.
Cash use and investing activities totaled $41 million, primarily driven by capital expenditures. Shifting to capital allocation, we repurchased $51 million of common stock in the first quarter, reducing basic shares outstanding by 5%. We will maintain an opportunistic approach to share repurchases, adapting to changes in our share price and cash flow outlook. Gross term debt as of March 31 was $642 million, or 3.2x our retail and logistics LTM EBITDA, at the low end of our three to four times leverage target. With $525 million of liquidity as of March 31, our balance sheet remains well capitalized with excess liquidity to support our strategic priorities moving forward. This concludes our prepared remarks. Alan, we'll turn it back to you for Q&A.
Operator (participant)
We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press Star, then 1 on your touch-tone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw it, please press Star, then 2. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead.
Matthew Blair (Managing Director of Refiners, Chemicals, and Renewable Fuels Research)
Great. Thank you. Good morning. Congrats on repairing Wyoming and getting it back up. Could you talk about the factors that came in better than expected and allowed you to restart it about a month earlier compared to your original guidance?
Richard Creamer (EVP of Refining and Logistics)
Yeah, Matthew, this is Richard. The team there in Wyoming, supported with some of the other Par resources from other plants, really stepped up and really drove the activities. Also, the third-party contractors that we had both on-site and off-site supporting us with materials and resources stepped up in a big way as well. Just an efficient team effort to pull together and respond to the incident and bring it back online. It was a great effort overall.
Will Monteleone (President and CEO)
Matthew, the only thing I'd add is just a strong response from the team during kind of immediately following the event. We had some really cold weather following that. The team did a great job of stabilizing the plant and preventing any additional damage.
Matthew Blair (Managing Director of Refiners, Chemicals, and Renewable Fuels Research)
Sounds good. The follow-up is on the crude differential picture. Currently seeing quite tight heavy Canadian discounts. Could you talk about the factors driving those tight discounts and what is your outlook for the remainder of the year?
Will Monteleone (President and CEO)
Sure, Matt. I think at the highest level, you're in an excess pipeline capacity position out of Canada for the time being. Ultimately, I think that's allowing the inland kind of hard-to-see differentials to reflect, I'd just say, a looser than normal transportation situation. I think right now there's probably a $7-$8 spread between the value of Canadian heavy and hard-to-see versus on the Gulf Coast. That's probably inside pipeline costs at the moment. I think it suggests a quite tight market, as you're mentioning. Ultimately, I think that's something that's likely to persist until you see production increase sufficiently to absorb the pipeline capacity that's in place in Canada.
Matthew Blair (Managing Director of Refiners, Chemicals, and Renewable Fuels Research)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Ryan Todd of Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Ryan Todd (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Good, thanks. There's been quite a bit of moving pieces looking at West Coast markets and by extension Asian markets, including asset outages and announced closures. Can you talk about what you're seeing in terms of knock-on effects in your West Coast and Rockies markets in terms of supply demand and maybe even what you think the potential impact of rising product imports from Asia to California could mean for your Hawaii market?
Will Monteleone (President and CEO)
Sure, Ryan. It's a good question. I think overall, you're seeing a need for increased product imports from Asia. I think that has ultimately pushed the market into sort of persistent import parities. For us, that's a favorable outcome for our West Coast position in Tacoma. It also benefits, I'll say, our sales profile that's in Eastern Washington. Again, the kind of western edges of the Rocky Mountain markets where our Montana business has a significant position. I think those are the two areas that are most impactful. I think there's some knock-on effects to Hawaii as well. Across the board, I think a tighter West Coast market benefits us in a number of ways. We're really strategically on the periphery of California, but we're not in California.
We try and position ourselves to participate in that market when it is attractive and then ultimately continue to try and operate really low-cost assets so that when the market's unattractive, we can ride through and ultimately put ourselves in a great spot to capitalize on the upside.
Ryan Todd (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Thanks. Yeah, I think probably close to California, but not in California, is the ideal place to be. Maybe a second question. You bought back $51 million in stock in 1Q, which I think was probably higher than most expected. Can you talk about how you're thinking about capital allocation right now? How much are you willing to utilize the balance sheet? And how much does your expectation of kind of a significant inflection in free cash flow play into how you're approaching it?
Will Monteleone (President and CEO)
Sure, Ryan. Our balance sheet's in good shape. We're in an excess capital position, and it gives us dry powder. On top of that, I'd just say our outlook's improving. Really, those things give us the flexibility to be opportunistic. Really, that means there's a combination of price and our outlook where you're going to see us be aggressive. That means in a certain price and outlook environment, we're going to reduce our activities. I think that's the key to thoughtful capital allocation, to be dynamic, incorporate the factors. Our balance sheet's in a really good spot so we can continue to be aggressive if we're given the opportunity.
Ryan Todd (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Alexa Petrick of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Alexa Petrick (Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, team. Thank you for taking my question. I know it's still somewhat early, but can you talk about what you're seeing in demand for Q2 so far? Are there any data points around China or Asia more broadly that you can share as we think about the market?
Will Monteleone (President and CEO)
Yeah. Alexa, I think in general, all of our niche markets, we're seeing steady to increasing demand across each one of the product categories. Overall, observation of the Singapore market is Chinese exports have remained pretty flat year over year. Ultimately, the Singapore market is supplying significant portions of the West Coast and other parts of the world. Thus, you're seeing what I'd characterize as broadly mid-cycle or slightly above mid-cycle margin conditions in the Singapore market. Simultaneously, I think you're seeing an emerging looser waterborne crude market given what OpEx posture shift has been.
Alexa Petrick (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. That's helpful. Just to follow up on refining, any color you can give on how we should think about capture rates directionally, just given turnaround and some of these moving pieces?
Shawn Flores (SVP and CFO)
Hey, Alexa, it's Shawn. Yeah, I'll walk you through each of the sites and sort of how to frame up Q2. I think in Hawaii, we continue to sort of reiterate our 100%-110% guidance. I think clean product freight rates have held in nicely. And as Will mentioned, I think there will be some knock-on benefits to a stronger West Coast as it relates to how it impacts Hawaii. In Tacoma, I think with the improving market conditions, you'll start to see the percentage capture come closer in line with our guidance of 85%-95% moving forward. In Montana, obviously, Q2 will be a little noisy with the FCC and the alky turnaround. But as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we should be able to mitigate a lot of the sort of lower production and turnaround impacts from drawing refined product inventories across our logistics network.
We've signaled capture of 90%-100%. I think it's fair to assume probably slightly lower than that given the turnaround activities. In Wyoming, I called out the FIFO accounting impact of the outage. We typically have a one-month lag on FIFO, and so the sort of 60-70-day downtime that we had will really impact early March, so in Q1, and then extend into mid-May.
Alexa Petrick (Equity Research Analyst)
That's helpful. I'll turn it back. Thank you all.
Operator (participant)
As a reminder, if you have a question, please press Star, then 1. Our next question comes from Jason Gabelman of TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Jason Gabelman (Managing Director of Energy Equity Research)
Hey, morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to follow on maybe on thinking about Q2 and more broadly the company's margin profile in a declining oil environment. I was hoping if you could just remind us of some of the moving pieces as oil prices fall. I believe there's a lag effect on diesel pricing in Hawaii. I believe your OpEx in Hawaii is somewhat tied to crude oil prices. I imagine some of the headwinds around asphalt and co-products may improve a bit with declining crude prices. Also the impact of a market moving from backwardation to contango. Thanks.
Shawn Flores (SVP and CFO)
Hey, Jason. Yeah, Shawn, I think that there's more tailwinds than headwinds in a falling flat price environment. You noted the price lag exposure we have in Hawaii on our utility sales. A pretty significant cost component in all of our refineries is fuel burn. That's really costed at the sort of flat price of crude. That will decrease in a lower flat price environment. Asphalt netbacks tend to improve in falling flat prices, just given the stickiness of wholesale and retail asphalt prices. On the risk management side, just keep in mind we maintain a fully hedged position on our hydrocarbon inventory. Typically, maybe across the industry, you would see headwinds in a falling flat price. We're well hedged and not expecting significant net working capital noise in Q2 related to the flat price.
Jason Gabelman (Managing Director of Energy Equity Research)
Okay, great. That's all helpful color. My other question is just on the SAF project as you approach startup. I imagine you'll have a ramp up in the second half of the year. Some of your larger peers have discussed some weakness in SAF, particularly in the European market. Just wondering if that market is developing in line with your expectations, if your position on Hawaii gives you a unique opportunity to capture margin that others won't be able to. Just overall thoughts on the earnings profile of that project. Thanks.
Will Monteleone (President and CEO)
Yeah, Jason, it's Will. I would say notwithstanding, I think, a lot of policy uncertainty that's in the space right now, we're remaining constructive on the Hawaii project. It really has more to do with our view on cost positioning in the space as a whole. It's really three items I'd point to.
One, the operating expense profile is going to be very competitive relative to our peers, given that it's inside the plant and we're able to leverage our existing infrastructure, resources, and personnel there. I think the second really is on the capital cost side, right? We're at roughly $1.50 per gallon constructed, which I think is one of the lowest I've seen in the space. The third is really on the transportation side. Given we have available logistics, we're able to efficiently distribute to our customers in Hawaii with a very low incremental cost. Alternatively, we have our own distribution network in Washington that allows us to monetize product over our own infrastructure, which is an enviable position to be in. I think we've got a number of options there.
Broadly on the customer side, I would say we're seeing encouraging interest from international airlines, principally in the Asia-Pacific region. That's a little bit of a differentiated solution than placing SAF into Europe right now.
Jason Gabelman (Managing Director of Energy Equity Research)
Okay. Understood. Thanks for the answers.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Manav Gupta of UBS. Please go ahead.
Manav Gupta (Executive Director)
Good morning. You know you have been a company which has grown through very smart M&A. I was just wondering, if we ignore refining for a minute because that's where things can be tricky, would you be open to small bolt-on deals that can grow your logistics business as well as your retail business at the right price and the right threshold?
Will Monteleone (President and CEO)
Yeah, Manav, this is Will. I mean, what I would say is there's very few opportunities that we've seen that have come close to competing with the capital allocation alternative of repurchasing our stock. I think the single best capital allocation alternative we have is in that area today. That's kind of how we think about the market at this moment.
Manav Gupta (Executive Director)
Perfect. My second question is, again, on the retail side. I mean, we are in this uncertain macro. Are there any signs of recessionary demand that you have seen out there in any region, which it's early, but are you seeing underlying demand to be totally resilient despite these macro headwinds, or are there some signs of weakness in some markets? Thank you. I'll turn it over.
Will Monteleone (President and CEO)
Sure, Manav. Yeah, we've really not seen any reductions in demand across any of our markets. We operate in some different niches, but I think that's kind of the broad sense right now is it's flat. On the retail side, I'd just point out that it can be a little bit countercyclical where the retail business tends to outperform in any type of a down market. I would just probably characterize demand both in the store and at the pump as flat to slightly up.
Operator (participant)
This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Will Monteleone for any closing remarks.
Will Monteleone (President and CEO)
Great. Thank you, Alan. We're encouraged by the improving market backdrop and remain focused on execution as the key to driving shareholder value. Thank you for joining us today.
Operator (participant)
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.