Patrick Industries - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 net sales rose 8% year over year to $846M; GAAP diluted EPS fell to $0.42, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.52 as margins compressed from higher amortization (acquisitions) and a deliberate decision to retain production capacity ahead of the selling season.
• Segment mix: RV +1% to $358M (42% of sales), Housing +12% to $288M (35%), Powersports +228% to $78M (9%), Marine −17% to $122M (14%), reflecting acquisitions (Sportech) and housing strength against marine destocking.
• Balance sheet/liquidity strengthened: $500M 6.375% senior notes (2032), credit facility expanded/extended; available liquidity ~$804M and total net leverage 2.7x; Board declared a $0.40 quarterly dividend payable March 3, 2025 (dividend increased 9% in Nov; 3-for-2 split in Dec).
• FY 2025 outlook: operating margin +70–90 bps vs 2024 adjusted, operating cash flow $390–$410M, capex $75–$85M, FCF ≥$305M; RV wholesale ~350K (retail flat), Marine wholesale +5–10%, Powersports organic content up mid-single digits, MH wholesale up 10–15%—positioning margin expansion and cash generation as potential stock catalysts.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Housing strength and mix resilience: Q4 Housing revenue +12% with MH shipments +15% and MH content per unit up 4% to $6,604, underscoring affordable housing demand.
• Powersports platform expansion: Q4 Powersports revenue +228% to $78M, driven primarily by the Sportech acquisition, with management highlighting strong utility segment resilience and premium feature attachment.
• Capital structure improved: opportunistic refinancing (redeemed $300M 7.50% 2027 notes using proceeds from $500M 2032 notes) and expanded revolver enhanced liquidity and lowered average fixed-rate debt costs; available liquidity ~$804M.

Management quotes:

• “We... bolstered our liquidity and financial flexibility by expanding and extending our credit facility and by refinancing a portion of our debt, which extended our maturity horizon and reduced the average interest rate of our fixed rate debt” — CEO Andy Nemeth.
• “We believe there are promising trends occurring in our RV market as the industry prepares for the upcoming selling season” — Jeff Rodino, President–RV.

What Went Wrong

• Margin compression and profit decline: Operating income fell 31% YoY to $39.6M; GAAP operating margin declined 260 bps to 4.7% on higher amortization and retained capacity; adjusted operating margin 5.2%.
• Marine headwinds: Q4 Marine revenue −17%, with estimated wholesale powerboat shipments −20% and dealer inventory still below historical norms (23–25 weeks), constraining throughput.
• EPS dilution and EBITDA pressure: Q4 adjusted EBITDA fell to $89.4M (10.6% margin) vs $100.1M (12.8%) last year; convertible notes/warrants added ~$0.02 dilution in Q4.

Transcript

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

Acquisitions, stabilization in our RV market, and strong performance in our housing businesses, in particular our manufactured housing businesses. The combination of these items helped offset declines in our marine market, where dealers and OEMs were focused on reducing field inventory levels. All told, our diversified model and flexible cost structure helped us maintain solid profitability in 2024, while also enabling us to stay strategic and thoughtfully position our business for the next cycle.

Looking ahead, we're going to stay focused on meeting and exceeding the needs of our valued customers while preserving the ability to flex our cost structure as needed. We remain optimistic that consumer purchasing power and consumer confidence will improve as we move through the year, enabling some of the pent-up demand to be realized in 2025. This potential catalyst, combined with lean dealer inventories, could support improving demand as we progress through the year.

At the end of 2024, our total net liquidity was approximately $804 million, and combined with our strong balance sheet, provides us significant flexibility to execute on strategic opportunities while continuing to return cash to shareholders. Our team remains dedicated to advancing our organizational objectives and driving additional shareholder value as we move through 2025. I'll now turn the call over to Jeff, who will highlight the quarter and provide detail on our end markets.

Jeff Rodino (President)

Thanks, Andy, and good morning, everyone. Our OEM partners continued to demonstrate tremendous discipline and sometimes aggressive inventory management throughout 2024 in response to ongoing interest rate and consumer demand headwinds. This discipline drove meaningful reductions in field inventory across our outdoor enthusiast market. In RV and marine, we estimate dealer inventories declined approximately 13% and 22% respectively during the year, and in the second half of 2024, certain OEMs had previously announced targeted dealer inventory reductions, and recent reports suggest solid progress on those efforts.

On the housing side of our business, demand for affordable housing remained solid through the year, exceeding our expectations. Our Q4 RV revenues increased 1% to $358 million, representing 42% of consolidated sales. RV content per unit on a full-year basis was $4,870, which increased 1% from the same period in 2023.

On a sequential basis, content per unit was flat, reflecting a further mix shift towards smaller, more affordable units. RV wholesale unit shipments increased 3% in the quarter, while we estimate RV retail registrations increased approximately 1% during the same period. Our current estimates suggest the Q4 of 2024 will represent the Q1 in 13 consecutive quarters where retail has improved over the prior year quarter, with October being the first month in 40 consecutive months to show retail improvement.

Our estimates further suggest a seasonal dealer restock of approximately 14,000 units during the quarter, resulting in an estimated 17 to 19 weeks on hand versus the pre-pandemic historical averages of 26 to 30 weeks. The team recently attended the 2025 Florida RV SuperShow in Tampa, one of the largest RV retail shows in the US, where we saw encouraging customer engagement.

Thus far, news out of early season retail shows has been promising. On the acquisition front, we are pleased to report that RecPro, our Q3 acquisition, has been an excellent fit within the Patrick family and the organic opportunities that are available within our existing product portfolio are greater than we originally anticipated. Our teams have demonstrated passion and efficiency while working together, and we've begun adding legacy RV product lines onto the RecPro platform with strategic plans to integrate marine and powersports in the future.

Additionally, earlier this week, we announced the acquisition of Elkhart Composites, a composite solution provider to the RV market. This acquisition bolsters our growing portfolio of industry-leading composites offering, including PC-Pro, PC-Lite, Azdel, and NTXT, which we have highlighted on previous calls. Marine Q4 revenues was $122 million, representing 14% of our Q4 consolidated sales.

This compares to $147 million in the Q4 of 2023. Results reflect continued softness, particularly in the higher-engineered ski, wake, and pontoon categories, where we remained a significant market presence. Marine content per wholesale powerboat unit decreased 3% to $3,967 on a full-year basis as a result of this mix shift. However, content per unit increased 1% on a sequential basis.

We estimate the marine retail and wholesale powerboat unit shipments decreased approximately 7% and 20% respectively in Q4. These figures imply a seasonal dealer field inventory restock of about 13,000 units, which is lower than the historical average for this time of the year, but reflective of the partnerships with the dealer base and helping cover floor plan costs during the offseason.

Our current estimated dealer inventory weeks on hand of 23 to 25 weeks is well below the historical average, which is 36 to 40 weeks, and down approximately 3 to 5 weeks from the same period a year ago, contributing to our belief that an uptick in demand could lead to dealers restocking more meaningfully. Our powersports revenues were $78 million in the quarter, representing 9% of our Q4 consolidated sales.

Our powersports business is primarily focused on the utility segment of the side-by-side market, which continues to demonstrate resilience compared to the recreational segment. We also participate in the motorcycle and golf cart segments of the market. powersports OEMs are actively managing field inventory levels, and we're encouraged by the continued strength in the attachment rates and steady demand for premium features.

Based on recent reports from certain powersports OEMs, we believe ridership and usage have been more resilient than new unit retail sales, meaning customers continue to use their powersports products, which we believe is a positive sign. Heading into 2025, we are confident in our brands that compete in this space today and the runway of opportunity ahead of us.

While the broader industry continues to calibrate, our powersports business is focused on supporting OEMs through engineering new products and solutions that consumers value. Our housing revenues increased 12% to $288 million in Q4, representing 35% of our consolidated sales. This growth was driven by continued momentum in manufactured housing, which we believe remains an attractive option for those seeking affordable housing solutions. Our MH content per unit increased 4% to $6,604 for the full year.

In the Q4, MH wholesale unit shipments increased 15%, offsetting softness within residential housing starts, which decreased 6%, with single-family starts down approximately 5% and multi-family starts down approximately 9%. I will now turn the call over to Andy Roeder, who will provide additional comments on our financial performance.

Andrew Roeder (CFO)

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. Our consolidated net sales for the Q4 increased 8% to $846 million. For the full year, net sales increased 7% to $3.7 billion. Full-year RV revenue increased 8% to $1.6 billion, while marine revenue was off by 27% to $571 million. Our powersports revenue increased 189% to $352 million, and our housing revenue increased 10% to $1.2 billion.

MH wholesale shipments improved nicely last year, increasing 16%, and RV wholesale shipments also recovered, increasing 7% year over year. Marine wholesale shipments declined an estimated 25% for the full year. Retail registrations outpaced wholesale in RV and marine, suggesting solid reductions in dealer field inventory as OEMs across our end markets remain disciplined with their production schedules.

On a GAAP-reported basis, gross margin was 22.1% in the Q4 compared to 22.9% from the prior year, partially due to the mix of revenue given in-market dynamics with OEMs focused on producing more affordable units in the quarter combined with typical seasonality. For the full year, gross margin was 22.5% compared to 22.6% in 2023.

The Q4 and full-year gross margins include 30 and 10 basis points respectively of purchase accounting adjustments of inventory step-ups related to 2024 acquisitions. Total operating expenses were $148 million for the Q4 and $578 million for the full year. For the quarter, warehouse and delivery expenses increased 21%, primarily due to the Q3 acquisition of RecPro. For the Q4, SG&A expenses increased 20% to $81 million, and amortization expenses increased approximately $5 million, or 26%.

The increases in these expenses were directly related to acquisitions during 2024 and our decision to maintain our cost structure in the Q4 without further adjustment to ensure the efficacy of our business model and ability to support our customers upon signs of potential inflection in our markets. For the full year, SG&A expenses increased approximately 9% to $326 million. Amortization expense increased $17 million, or 22% to $96 million as a result of acquisitions. Operating income for the Q4 was $40 million and $258 million for the full year. On a GAAP-reported basis, operating margin was 4.7% in the Q4 and 6.9% for the full year.

On an adjusted basis, and as noted in our press release this morning, after excluding certain one-time non-recurring expenses, including transaction costs, inventory step-up, and costs related to our debt refinancing in the Q4, operating margin was 5.2% in the Q4 and 7.2% for the full year.

On a GAAP-reported basis, net income in the Q4 was $15 million, or $0.42 per diluted share, compared to $0.94 per diluted share in 2023. Adjusted net income in the Q4 was $18 million, or $0.52 per diluted share. For the full year, GAAP-reported net income was $138 million, or $4.11 per diluted share, and on an adjusted basis for the full year, net income was $146 million, or $4.34 per diluted share.

As reconciled in our earnings press release, our adjusted net income and net income per share exclude certain one-time non-recurring items, including a fair value inventory step-up related to acquisitions, transaction costs, and expenses related to the extinguishment of debt. Please also recall that our per-share data, including EPS and dividends, reflect our three-for-two stock split, which was paid on 13 December.

Additionally, our Q4 and full-year EPS include approximately $0.02 and $0.10 per share, respectively, in additional accounting-related dilution from our 2028 convertible notes and related warrants as a result of the increase in our stock price above the convertible option strike price.

As we've noted in the past, we have hedges in place, which are expected to reduce or eliminate any potential dilution to the company's common stock upon any conversion of the convertible notes and/or offset any cash payments the company is required to make in excess of the principal amount of the converted notes. For GAAP reporting purposes, these hedges are always antidilutive and therefore cannot be included when reporting earnings per share.

Adjusted EBITDA decreased 11% to $89 million, while adjusted EBITDA margin decreased to 10.6% for the Q4. On a full-year basis, adjusted EBITDA increased 6% to $452 million, while adjusted EBITDA margin decreased 10 basis points to 12.2%. Our overall effective tax rate was approximately 29% for the Q4 and 22% for the full year 2024.

Cash provided by operations was approximately $327 million for 2024, and purchases of property, plant, and equipment were $76 million for the year, resulting in free cash flow of $251 million. This fell short of our outlook as we made the decision to strategically utilize our cash flows to maintain and procure certain raw material inventory to ensure we are in position to support any uptick in demand from our customers in the Q1 of 2025.

For the quarter, operating cash flow was $103 million, implying free cash flow of $77 million. At the end of the quarter, our total net leverage was 2.7 times. We remain committed to our goal of delevering while strategically evaluating acquisitions that align with our growth objectives.

This approach has allowed us to pursue opportunistic acquisitions such as Sportech and RecPro during the year and smaller bolt-on transactions like Elkhart Composites, which was announced this week. We remain comfortable increasing leverage when appropriate to capitalize on strategic opportunities. Available liquidity at the end of the quarter was approximately $804 million, comprised of $34 million of cash on hand and unused capacity on our revolving credit facility of $770 million.

We are dedicated to maintaining a disciplined capital allocation strategy, prioritizing strategic acquisitions that align with our growth objectives while also investing in projects that support our organic growth initiatives. These efforts are complemented by our commitment to reinvesting in Patrick and delivering value to shareholders through cash returns. In 2024, we invested $412 million in acquisitions, including our acquisition of Sportech and RecPro.

During the quarter, we repurchased approximately $5 million, or 60,000 shares, and returned approximately $13 million to shareholders in the form of dividends. For the full year, we returned $55 million to our shareholders, including a total of $5 million in stock repurchases and $50 million in dividends. At the end of 2024, we had $200 million remaining under our current share repurchase authorization.

In November, management and our board of directors demonstrated their confidence in our financial strength and growth potential by electing to increase Patrick's quarterly dividend by 9% to $0.40 per share. Before we give our in-market outlook, we want to discuss our estimated tariff exposure relative to our current expectations that align with the the the President's announcement on Saturday.

Although we have seen changes this week to the original proposal and we will adapt as necessary, we believe it is worth providing color on our exposure to these three countries. In total, China, Mexico, and Canada account for approximately 10% of our cost of goods sold, with approximately one half focused on China and the other half on Mexico and Canada.

We have been diligently de-risking our offshore exposure over the past two years to China and are confident in our ability to further reduce our exposure to China by more than half if necessary. We will continue exploring alternative sourcing options across all three countries where possible. We will continue to monitor the tariff situation as it is extremely dynamic.

We have many optional tools at our disposal, including working with both our suppliers and customers in partnership through our Good, Better, Best product offering, VA/VE initiatives, and our strategic sourcing decisions to materially mitigate the impact to our margins at this time. Moving to our in-market outlook for 2025. As we have discussed, we are poised and ready to serve our customers and pursue additional market share gains.

Our teams remain focused on monitoring key indicators such as customer, dealer, and consumer sentiment, dealership activity, consumer confidence, and interest rates, which we believe will continue to shape demand trends. In the RV market, we are currently seeing early indicators of potential improving demand from our OEM customers.

Meanwhile, Marine and powersports OEMs are maintaining their disciplined approach to dealer inventory, though we anticipate some minor year-over-year restocking in the Q1 and Q4 as they thoughtfully manage inventories for the selling seasons. These trends reflect cautious optimism as we move forward. In our RV market, we are maintaining our estimates that 2025 wholesale unit shipments will increase at a mid-single-digit rate to approximately 350,000 units.

We currently estimate that retail registrations will be flat in 2025, implying a one-for-one dealer replenishment environment. In our marine market, we estimate 2025 retail will be flat, bifurcated between the first and second halves of the year, and wholesale units for our overall product mix to be up 5% to 10% as a result of the incredible production pullback and discipline shown in 2024 in our marine mix categories.

This still implies a modest dealer inventory reduction for 2025 until solid signs of inflection occur. In our powersports end market, we expect unit shipments to be down approximately 10%, with our organic content to be up mid-single digits for the full year, implying an overall mid-single-digit decline for our businesses. On the housing side of the business, we estimate MH wholesale shipments will be up 10% to 15%, with retail sales absorbing available wholesale production on a real-time basis.

In our residential housing end market, we estimate 2025 new housing starts to be flat to up 5%. Given the current in-market outlook we've outlined, we continue to estimate our 2025 operating margin will improve by 70 to 90 basis points versus 2024 adjusted operating margin.

We estimate our operating cash flow will be between $390 to $410 million and CapEx to total between $75 to $85 million, implying free cash flow of approximately $305 million or more and a free cash flow yield of approximately 10%. For 2025, we expect our full-year tax rate will be between 24% and 25%. As noted earlier, our EPS in 2025 could include additional dilution related to our convertible notes and warrants, depending on our share price. That completes my remarks. We are now ready for question.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to be placed in the question queue, please press Star one on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, we ask you please ask one question, one follow-up, then return to the queue. Once again, that's Star one to be placed in the question queue.One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question today is coming from Mike Swartz from Truist Securities. Your line is now live.

Mike Swartz (Senior Equity Analyst)

Hey, guys. Good morning. Maybe just to start out with, it appears that your 2025 outlook, maybe aside from the manufactured housing businesses, is fairly in line with what you had discussed over the two, three months ago. I guess within the ranges that you've provided and maybe just some more qualitative commentary, I guess, how are you thinking about the year as we sit here today versus maybe where we were three months ago? Are there any major changes?

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

Good morning, Mike. This is Andy. There's no significant changes to that. I think there's some building optimism right now and some tailwinds building.If you just kind of looked at where we were at a quarter ago versus where we're at today, we're optimistic with what we see today looking out. We're keeping our estimates in check right now. It's a little bit early to get a feel on the retail selling season just at this point, but certainly in the next couple of months, we'll have a much greater feel on what that looks like. But right now, I would just tell you that there's building tailwinds that we see. And so we're optimistic but holding tight to our estimates.

Mike Swartz (Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay. Great. And then maybe for Andy Roeder, just more housekeeping. Can you give us the breakout, that 8% growth, how much of that was inorganic versus organic and market?

Andrew Roeder (CFO)

Yeah. Sure, Mike. That 8% growth was driven by acquisition revenue, which was up 11% for the quarter year over year. And then industry was down 4%. That's largely mix driven. Organic was up 2%, and that's pricing down 2% and content share up 3.5%.

Mike Swartz (Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay. Perfect. Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question is coming from Daniel Moore from CJS Securities. Your line is now live.

Daniel Moore (Director of Research)

Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just talk about the biggest opportunities buckets, either end markets or products, you see to continue to increase penetration and drive that 2%-3% organic growth as we look at 2025 and beyond.

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

And I think that what we're really excited about is all the new product opportunities that we've been working on, both from a prototyping perspective for the current model year and in addition to our advanced product group, which has been very active in working with our customers.And so the content share gains that we see with new products and new product potential for 2025 is something that we're very excited about to be able to hit those targets or exceed those targets.

So we've done more prototyping in the last year and a half than we've done in the prior three years. And so it's an exciting time as we look out here, and the innovations that our teams have come up with are very exciting to look at. So that, in addition to the fact that I think we're positioned, we've made the appropriate investments to be able to scale with our customers when we do see an inflection point, should allow us the opportunity to be very aggressive in the marketplace, to be able to execute and really scale with those customers.So we feel good about a number of the opportunities that are out there.

Daniel Moore (Director of Research)

Very helpful. And juggling three calls this morning, so if you said it and I missed it, I apologize. Appreciate the updated color of the full-year outlook. Just looking at Q1, what are your expectations for revenue, maybe relative to Q4 as well as operating margins relative to what we just saw in Q4 on an adjusted basis or just holistically? How do we think about starting out the year?

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

I think really, as we're looking at the model, Q4 and Q1 are pretty similar as it relates to kind of the revenue expectations. Really, with some pickup, Q2 and Q3 are traditionally our largest quarters and where we expect to see a lot of the margin impact for the products that we're working on today.So Q1 relatively flat with Q4 as our kind of current estimates and expectations, again, as we kind of move through the selling season here and the retail season in February, March, April.

Daniel Moore (Director of Research)

Perfect. And then just kind of a capital allocation question, but raise dividend by 9%, not insignificant.

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

Hey, Dan. I'm sorry. Let me step back one second. I'm sorry. I was looking at the wrong number there. We're actually going to be up in Q1 from Q4. I apologize for that. I had my comparisons off. We're going to be up in Q1 from Q4 as it relates to kind of where we sit, both from a margin perspective and a top-line perspective. So I apologize. I was just giving you a bad comparison there.

Daniel Moore (Director of Research)

No, that's fine. Obviously, as is typical, the bigger jump in margins will come Q2 and Q3, as you described.

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

That's correct.

Daniel Moore (Director of Research)

Yep. Okay. And then just capital allocation. We've got significant liquidity, held a little bit of working capital, but we're looking at a year coming up of tremendous free cash flow generation. Just what's the pipeline for M&A and talk about the balancing act between wanting to leverage a little lower M&A opportunities versus maybe being more aggressive with the buyback as we're just at the kind of ending one of a cyclical recovery here. And that's it for me. Thanks.

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

Yeah. So capital allocation-wise, we're carrying a little bit more inventory into Q4, as we had kind of previously indicated, in anticipation of some uptick in production here as it relates to some little bit of restock, some seasonality, but in anticipation, again, to be able to scale with our customers.

I think as we look out into 2025, first of all, the M&A pipeline continues to be full, and we continue to be very, very active in cultivating opportunities out there. So nothing's changed as it relates to our expectations to be able to continue to deliver M&A. We're very excited about that. We are excited about the cash flow generation and capital allocation. We're going to continue to be disciplined and thoughtful about it, but again, I think we can be opportunistic and on offense here for the next two or three quarters for sure as it relates to all our priorities related to capital allocation.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Joseph Altobello from Raymond James. Your line is now live.

Joseph Altobello (Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks. Hey, guys. Good morning.I guess first question, I want to talk about the cash flow in the Q4, maybe a little bit more color there. Which raw materials did you procure? Was this tariff-related to try to maybe get ahead of that? And why wouldn't that be sort of a pull forward, if you will, and bolster cash flow in 2025?

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

Yeah, Joe, there is some pull forward there. We were disciplined in Q4 to make sure that we carried enough inventory. Most of it's in the RV sector as it relates to the raw materials that we brought in. So very liquid material as it relates to kind of how we're thinking about it. A little bit of marine as well with some business that we've picked up. So we look at that.

We maintain constant and picked up a little bit of inventory in Q4 in anticipation of kind of a little bit more activity in Q1 this year. So yes, there is a little bit of pull forward. We're going to continue to manage our inventories very aggressively, but we're in a great position. And like I said, it's very movable inventory from a raw material perspective.

Joseph Altobello (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. And just to shift gears over to mix, you've talked about it several times this morning. What are you guys assuming in terms of RV mix this year? Does it get better, or does it stay kind of where we were exiting 2024?

Jeff Rodino (President)

Hey, Joe, this is Jeff. I think as we get into the Q1, we've seen a little bit of uptick in production levels, but the mix has kind of remained the same from the Q4 to the Q1. We believe that there will be some opportunity for that mix to switch back a little bit over to the mid to high-end product. But again, we just want to see where retail starts to land. But as it sits today, from Q4 to Q1, we're seeing it's pretty similar with the expectations that it could change later in the year.

Joseph Altobello (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, that's Star one to be placed into question queue. Our next question is coming from Noah Zatzkin from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now live.

Noah Zatzkin (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess first, just on the kind of 70 to 90 basis points operating margin improvement in the outlook, is most of that volume-driven? Is there kind of any cost savings in there or automation efforts? Just trying to put together kind of the puts and takes there. Thanks.

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

No, this is Andy. It's primarily volume-driven as we've set the organizational structure really to match up in alignment with kind of the revenue runways that we've been experiencing over the last couple of quarters. And so it's really going to be volume-related, and we just don't have to add a lot of significant amount of overhead to support significant amount of revenue increase coming through. So we're going to be able to leverage the model the way we thought we could to be able to generate that.

Noah Zatzkin (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Maybe just one on RecPro. I know you touched on this a bit, but any kind of early learnings there, incremental opportunities versus what you had kind of previously laid out, or just kind of anything to note in terms of kind of the timeline there? Thanks.

Jeff Rodino (President)

Yeah. No, this is Jeff. We've been really excited about the RecPro acquisition and what we've been able to accomplish really in just the first three months of onboarding them. We've been able to add over 60 products to the RecPro site of Patrick products that had not had that aftermarket exposure. And we've got several more lined up, and we're starting to really incorporate some of the marine divisions right now. So it's been really, really, really good for us. And we've been really enthusiastic about the teams working together and being able to get that product out there. So it's been good.

Noah Zatzkin (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question is coming from Scott Stember from Roth Capital. Your line is now live.

Hey, good morning, guys. It's Jack on for Scott. I just got one question. What are kind of you seeing from your touchpoints at retail and in RVs? And kind of seems like the retail has bottomed or at least near that bottom and that dealers are ordering again. What should we look for regarding Q1 RV OEM production rates?

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

Yeah. So from a production rate standpoint, we have seen a little bit of uptick. We believe that there's certainly a need to get additional inventory out in the system for the selling season. Our touchpoints are a little bit mixed, but there's some optimism out there. We've seen some good activity on the retail side, went down to the Tampa show, and certainly saw a lot of consumer engagement there. We believe that there's opportunity for good retail growth or some retail out there, but we're still watching and waiting.

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Tristan Thomas-Martin from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now live.

Tristan Thomas (Equity Resaearch Analyst)

Hey, good morning. That's been kind of two questions that have kind of, I think, been hinted at a couple of times. The first one, what are you seeing in your RV transport business so far in the Q1?

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

Yeah. So we're starting to see that additional product going out to the dealers. I will tell you, we're also seeing a lot of. We're still seeing a lot of the multi-haul, which means that we're seeing the smaller units. That seems to be what's kind of retailing right now and is getting a lot of activity on our transportation side. So there's a lot of moving parts in the Q1 as people start to get product off the production lines, and then we get it out to dealers. But we have not slowed down on hiring drivers to be able to make sure that we can meet the needs of the dealers as we get into the selling season here.

Tristan Thomas (Equity Resaearch Analyst)

Okay. Thank you. And then just kind of content. If we take a longer-term view, right, 2025 has been we've seen pressure from the cheaper units. And how are you and kind of the OEMs thinking about model year 2026, model year 2027? When do you think we really see that content inflection?

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

Yeah. I mean, so a couple of things. Number one, from Q4 to Q1, we've seen the mix relatively the same, even though we've seen some production uptick. But I think there's also the lifetime RV buyer out there that sat out of the market for the last couple of years because of availability and pricing. And as pricings come back in line, come down a little bit, interest rates have come down a little bit.

I think some of that, I'm going to say, lifetime RVer is going to come back into the market, which gives us that opportunity for that mid to higher-level product. I'd like to be hopeful that we'll start seeing that in the second and Q3 of this year. So we're really trying to keep an eye on that, but there's definitely some opportunity for that mix to shift back as we get into a more traditional selling season.

As we're coming out of any downturn, what we've seen over the last cycles is this entry-level product is what the dealers are bringing to the market to try to get activity and retail activity back on the lots. So we think as that activity gets back on the lots, we'll start to see some of that change.

Tristan Thomas (Equity Resaearch Analyst)

Okay, let me keep in mind if I get to sneak one more in there. Just, can you kind of remind everybody, when are model year content decisions made typically, and then how easy are they to change later on in the product's lifecycle?

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

Yeah. So on the RV side, RVIA has a suggested model change of June 1st. We start working with customers almost immediately after the open house in October. When those decisions are made varies really by the lead time of the product. If it's an import product and has a 12 to 16 week lead time, we're going to be pushed to make those decisions. Really, they should be made already right now based on a 1 June model change. But there's other products that we make here domestically that we don't carry a lot of inventory because we're billed to order. We can make those quick decisions a little bit closer to the 1 June deadline.

Tristan Thomas (Equity Resaearch Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Alex Perry from Bank of America. Your line is now live.

Alex Perry (Director of Equity Research)

Hi. Yeah. I just wanted to ask again sort of about the increased enthusiasm you're seeing in the RV segment coming out of show season. Can you just provide a little more color on what you think is driving that? Do you think in the conversations with the OEMs as of late, what do you think's driving the increased enthusiasm? Are you seeing a little bit of increased consumer confidence as we get past the election, or is the conversations on the interest rate environment, consumers are getting used to maybe a more stable but higher interest rate environment? Just more color on what's sort of driving your enthusiasm there. Thanks.

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

I think there's a combination of things that are driving that. I think that the lean dealer inventories that are out in the space today across our markets, the tremendous discipline that our OEM partners have demonstrated to make sure that everybody stays nimble and scalable. I think certainly consumer confidence and consumer sentiment with some of the uncertainty gone post-election, I think, is driving some of that.

And I also think the consumer certainly enjoys the outdoor enthusiast experience. And so as we look at our markets and what we've seen in the past, we do see these resurgences as it relates to excitement for the products in the space that we work in. And so we're just kind of feeling that right now. We're feeling that there's a lot of optimism in the space because of the discipline that's been put in.

And then I think from what we've heard as it relates to the retail show season, there's been solid traction, and consumers are buying units. And so whether it's RV or marine, we're feeling a little bit of that enthusiasm. So I think there's a lot of factors going into it. And certainly, optimism is something I think we feel. Cautious optimism is a good term, but optimism is something that we're feeling across the space.

Alex Perry (Director of Equity Research)

Thank you. Really helpful. And then just on the guide, I think the slide that says contemplating some moderate relief, how much of how much is that sort of baked into what you are expecting in terms of the guide? And then I guess just to revisit tariffs, you gave some very good quantitative color on potential on your tariff exposure. Are the actual tariffs being contemplated in the guide, and what could be the potential impact? Thanks.

Andrew Roeder (CFO)

Alex, this is Andy Roeder. We have 50 basis points baked into our plan for next year. So we've stuck with 50 basis points as the environment's changed a bit. But yeah, right now, we're not looking for a whole lot of relief. We think the 100 basis points we saw this past fall really hasn't moved the needle. So we don't think that that's going to change a whole lot.

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

On the tariff front, Alex, right now, we don't have anything baked into our model or our plan as it relates to tariff impact. Like I said, and like we talked about in our comments, I think that we feel good about a lot of the risk mitigation that we've done, especially as it relates to our offshoring from China. Mexico and Canada are kind of a TBD right now. But the opportunity to work with our customers, our product offering, different things that we can do because of our multiple product lines and things that we can bring, we hope to be able to work with our customers to mitigate as much of that as possible.

So we're going to be very active in that partnership. And again, so right now, we don't have anything built in as it relates to that. It's still an unknown. But I'm really proud of what our team has done in particular as it relates to de-risking kind of our China exposure over the last couple of years. They've worked really hard behind the scenes to really drive alternative sourcing options, and we're not going to stop doing that. So again, we've not built any into the model at this point.

Alex Perry (Director of Equity Research)

Perfect. That's very helpful. Best of luck going forward. Thanks. Peace.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Mike Albanese from The Benchmark Company. Your line is now live.

Mike Albanese (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah. Hey, good morning, guys. And thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one on housing, and my apologies if I missed this here.But has the growth been more so driven by, I guess, inventory stock on the builder side or the uptick in, I guess, retail demand for affordable housing? I guess just help me unpack the bifurcation a little bit. Thanks.

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

We think that it's retail demand for affordable housing out there. For a long time, we've thought that there's not enough inventory and not enough capacity to support affordable housing demand. And so the MH industry in particular has been very robust for us, and we're really proud of the team's work and what they've been able to do, not only to be able to, again, bring value to our customers, but bring additional product lines on. And so we think it's very much related to the retail demand that's there and the enthusiasm that exists for affordable housing.

Mike Albanese (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it.Thank you, guys. Nice job. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you.Next question is coming from Brandon Rollé from D.A. Davidson. Your line is now live.

Brandon Rollé (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First, just on the overall competitive environment, can you talk about any increases or potentially decreases in competition you've seen in some of your end markets, particularly within the marine and RV industries, just given people moving towards more affordable pricing on certain models and just overall customer preference?

Jeff Rodino (President)

Yeah. Brandon, this is Jeff. We haven't really seen a lot of changes in the competitive environment. From our standpoint, we've always had two or three competitors in just about every space with every one of the product categories that we deal with and have not seen any change, really marked change in that in the last couple of quarters or really even the last year.

So we continue to push our teams to try to stay ahead of our product categories to make sure that we're first out to the market with as many new products and innovations as possible to stay ahead of any competitions out there. And we've seen that happen, and we're proud of what we've been able to accomplish on that end.

Brandon Rollé (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. Great. And just finally, just circling back to some of the optimism around the RV market, would you be able to comment on just the ordering activity post-RV show season? It seems like there's been some mixed color around just actual retail sales and how eager dealers are to order. It seems like the larger, more successful dealers may be in a position to order inventory more aggressively, but your average dealer, which makes up the bulk of the industry, may not be as excited to order inventory right now. Could you just kind of talk about what you're seeing, maybe bifurcating between the two different types of dealers out there right now? Thank you.

Jeff Rodino (President)

Yeah. I don't think we can specifically talk about what the dealers are buying or not buying. I mean, what we look at on a daily basis are the production levels. So I can tell you the OEMs and who's running what. We don't see specifically where the OEMs are shipping all of these. We see some of that through our transportation businesses.

However, that doesn't give us the entire market. I mean, certainly, the big dealers out there are moving a lot of the smaller inventory, the major dealers, the smaller units, I should say. But we have seen some production uptick across the categories, across the entry level, all the way up into the bigger product. But we still think that mix is a little bit heavier on the smaller product side.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Craig Kennison from Baird. He's now live.

Craig Kennison (Director of Research Operation and Senior Research Analyst)

Oh, great. Hey, thanks for taking my question as well. I guess wanted to follow up on the tariff issue. Andy, I think you said really nothing baked into guidance, and that makes sense given a lot of the unknowns around Canada and Mexico. But based on the latest tweet that I read, I think there is an incremental tariff on China. Can you just address whether that incremental 10% tariff is something you've contemplated?

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

Sure, Craig. We've definitely contemplated it as we've been active, like I said, in alternative sourcing. But also, we work with our suppliers over in China as well. So we've been able to partner with them. And as we've looked out at business opportunities and production levels, we work with our supply partners there to make sure that we're mitigating as much as possible when it comes to that exposure. So it's a combination of alternative sourcing as well as working with our partners to mitigate as much of the impact as we can. So yes, we've contemplated it, and we don't feel the need at this point to build that in.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We reached the end of our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further closing comments.

Andy Nemeth (CEO)

Yeah. I just want to thank everybody on the call, first of all, for joining us. I also want to send tremendous gratitude and thanks to the entire Patrick team, who has exhibited unbelievable dedication and commitment in some uncertain times, especially in 2024. But the team has done just such a fabulous job.

I'm so proud of the work that they've done to position the organization to really be able to optimize the opportunities that are coming forward as we look at 2025 and beyond. And so again, thanks to the entire Patrick team, such commitment, very, very proud of that. So again, thanks everybody for joining us on the call. We'll look forward to talking to you in Q1.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.We thank you for your participation today.