Prosperity Bancshares - Q3 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, and welcome to the Prosperity Bancshares Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Charlotte Rasche. Please go ahead.

Charlotte Rasche (EVP and General Counsel)

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Prosperity Bancshares third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. This call is being broadcast live on our website and will be available for replay for the next few weeks. I'm Charlotte Rasche, Executive Vice President and General Counsel of Prosperity Bancshares. Here with me today is David Zalman, Senior Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, H.E. Timanus, Jr., Chairman, Asylbek Osmonov, Chief Financial Officer, Eddie Safady, Vice Chairman, Kevin Hanigan, President and Chief Operating Officer, Randy Hester, Chief Lending Officer, Mays Davenport, Director of Corporate Strategy, and Bob Dowdell, Executive Vice President. David Zalman will lead off with a review of the highlights for the recent quarter.

He will be followed by Asylbek Osmonov, who will review some of our recent financial statistics, and Tim Timanus, who will discuss our lending activities, including asset quality. Finally, we will open the call for questions. Before we begin, let me make the usual disclaimers. Certain of the matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements for purposes of the federal securities laws and as such, may involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors which may cause the actual results or performance of Prosperity Bancshares to be materially different from future results or performance expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to be materially different than those in the forward-looking statements can be found in Prosperity Bancshares' filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including Forms 10-Q and 10-K, and other reports and statements we have filed. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Now, let me turn the call over to David Zalman.

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Charlotte. I would like to welcome and thank everyone for listening to our third quarter 2024 conference call. I'm pleased to announce that the board of directors approved increasing the fourth quarter 2024 dividend to $0.58 per share from the $0.56 per share that was paid in the prior four quarters. The increase reflects the continued confidence the board has in our company and our markets. The compound annual growth rate in dividends declared from 2003 to 2024 was 11%. We continue to share our success with our shareholders through the payment of dividends and opportunistic stock repurchases, while also continuing to grow our capital. Our tangible capital increased $218 million from September 30, 2023 to September 30, 2024.

This is the amount Prosperity retained after paying $212 million in dividends and repurchasing $75 million of our common stock during this period, reflecting Prosperity's stable earnings. Further, Prosperity's tangible book value per share has a compound annual growth rate of 11% for the last 21 years or since 2003. Prosperity reported net income of $127 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, compared with $112 million for the same period in 2023. The net income per diluted common share was $1.34 for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, compared with $1.20 for the same period in 2023, an 11.7% increase. Prosperity earnings were primarily impacted by a higher net interest margin.

The net interest margin on a tax equivalent basis was 2.95% for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to 2.72% for the same period, September 30, 2023. As mentioned in previous calls, our net interest margin should continue to improve to more normal levels as our assets reprice. Prosperity continues to exhibit solid operating metrics, with annualized returns on tangible equity of 13.5% and return on assets of 1.28% for the third quarter of 2024. Loans were $22.3 billion at September 30, 2024, an increase of $948 million, or 4.4% compared with $21.4 billion at September 30, 2023.

Linked quarter loans increased $60 million. Excluding the loans acquired in the Lone Star merger and new production by the acquired lending operations since April 1, 2024, loans at September 30, 2024, decreased by $161 million compared with September 30, 2023. The reduction in loans is not, is not unusual for Prosperity, as we are still working through loans acquired from the First Capital Bank. If the terms and conditions of any acquired loan does not meet certain standards, we exit the asset. Over the years, this process has resulted in lower non-performing and charged-off loans and makes us a stronger bank that can withstand various banking cycles. Our shareholders have come to expect this.

Our deposits were $28 billion at September 30, 2024, an increase of $774 million, or 2.8%, compared with $27.3 billion at September 30, 2023. Linked-quarter deposits increased $154 million from $27.9 billion at June 30, 2024. Excluding deposits assumed in the Lone Star merger at September 30, 2024, deposits decreased by $361 million compared with September 30, 2023, and increased by $206 million compared with June 30, 2024. We're encouraged that the deposits are stabilizing and that core deposits have grown slightly compared with the previous quarter after the effects of the bank failures in 2023.

Importantly, Prosperity has not purchased any broker deposits during this turbulent time. Our non-performing assets totaled $89.9 million, or 25 basis points of quarterly average interest-earning assets at September 30, 2024, compared with $69.5 million, or 20 basis points of quarterly average interest-earning assets at September 30, 2023, and $89.6 million, or 25 basis points of quarterly average interest-earning assets at June 30, 2024, with a significant portion of the balance for each period attributable to the acquired loans. The allowance for credit losses on loans and off-balance sheet credit exposure was $392 million at September 30, 2024, compared with $89.9 million in non-performing assets as of September 30, 2024.

Our net charge-offs were twelve million for the nine months ended September thirty, two thousand and twenty-four, compared with eighteen point nine million for the nine months ended September thirty, two thousand and twenty-three. We continue to have conversations with other bankers considering strategic opportunities. We believe that higher technology and staffing costs, funding costs, loan competition, succession planning concerns, and increased regulatory burden all point to continued consolidation. We remain ready to move forward in the event a transaction materializes and will be beneficial to our company's long-term future and will increase shareholder value.

An estimated one thousand to one thousand three hundred people move to Texas every day, based on the U.S. Census Bureau. In two thousand and twenty-three, four hundred and seventy-three thousand people moved to Texas, which equates to approximately forty thousand per month, or one thousand three hundred per day. The Texas and Oklahoma economies continue to benefit from companies relocating from states with higher taxes and more regulation. This, combined with people moving to the states, requires additional housing and infrastructure, a driver for loans and increased business opportunities. We believe our bank is located in two of the best states we can be for future growth and continued prosperity. Thanks again for your support of our company.

Let me turn over our discussion to Asylbek Osmonov, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss the specific financial results we achieved. Asylbek?

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

Thank you, Mr. Zalman. Good morning, everyone. Net interest income before provision for credit losses for the three months ended September thirtieth, two thousand and twenty-four, was $261.7 million, an increase of $2.9 million compared to $258.8 million for the quarter ended June thirtieth, two thousand and twenty-four, and an increase of $22.2 million compared to $239.5 million for the same period in two thousand and twenty-three. Fair value loan income for the third quarter of two thousand and twenty-four was $4.8 million, compared to $7.2 million for the second quarter of two thousand and twenty-four.

Excluding fair value loan income, the core net interest income for the three months ended September thirtieth, two thousand and twenty-four, increased $5.3 million compared to the quarter ended June thirtieth, two thousand and twenty-four. The net interest margin on a tax equivalent basis was 2.95% for the three months ended September thirtieth, two thousand and twenty-four, compared to 2.94% for the quarter ended June thirtieth, two thousand and twenty-four, and 2.72% for the same period in two thousand and twenty-three.

Excluding purchase accounting adjustments, the net interest margin for the three months ended September thirtieth, two thousand and twenty-four, was 2.89%, compared to 2.86% for the quarter ended June thirtieth, two thousand and twenty-four, and 2.68% for the same period in two thousand and twenty-three. Non-interest income was $41.1 million for the three months ended September thirtieth, two thousand and twenty-four, compared to $46 million for the quarter ended June thirtieth, two thousand and twenty-four, and $38.7 million for the same period in two thousand and twenty-three. Higher non-interest income during the second quarter of two thousand twenty-four was due to a net gain of $10.7 million, resulting from the gain on Visa stock conversion, partially offset by the loss on sale of investment securities.

Non-interest expense for the three months ended September thirtieth, two thousand twenty-four, was $140.3 million, compared to $152.8 million for the quarter ended June thirtieth, two thousand twenty-four, and $135.7 million for the same period in two thousand twenty-three. Higher non-interest expense during the second quarter of two thousand twenty-four was primarily due to merger-related expenses of $4.4 million and FDIC special assessment of $3.6 million. For the fourth quarter of two thousand twenty-four, we expect non-interest expense to be in the range of $141-$143 million.

The efficiency ratio was 46.9% for the three months ended September thirtieth, two thousand twenty-four, compared to 51.8% for the quarter ended June thirtieth, two thousand twenty-four, and 48.7% for the same period in two thousand twenty-three. The bond portfolio metrics at nine thirty, two thousand twenty-four, have a modified duration of four and projected annual cash flows of approximately $2 billion. And with that, let me turn over the presentation to Tim Timanus for some details on loan and asset quality. Timanus?

H.E. Timanus (Chairman)

Thank you, Asylbek. Our non-performing assets at quarter end, September thirtieth, two thousand twenty-four, totaled $89,923,000, or forty basis points of loans and other real estate, compared to $89,570,000, or forty basis points at June thirtieth, two thousand twenty-four. Since September thirtieth, two thousand twenty-four, $2,200,000 in non-performing assets have been removed or put under contract for sale. The September thirtieth, two thousand twenty-four, non-performing asset total was made up of $83,989,000 in loans, $177,000 in repossessed assets, and $5,757,000 in other real estate.

Net charge-offs for the three months ended September 30th, 2024, were $5,455,000, compared to net charge-offs of $4,368,000 for the quarter ended June 30th, 2024. This is a $1,087,000 increase on a linked quarter basis. There was no addition to the allowance for credit losses during the quarter ended September 30th, 2024, compared to a $9,066,000 addition during the quarter ended June 30th, 2024, that resulted from the Lone Star State Bank of West Texas acquisition. No dollars were taken into income from the allowance during the quarter ended September 30th, 2024.

The average monthly new loan production for the quarter ended September thirtieth, two thousand twenty-four, was $259 million, compared to $278 million for the quarter ended June thirtieth, two thousand twenty-four. Loans outstanding at September thirtieth, two thousand twenty-four, were approximately $22.381 billion, compared to $22.321 billion at June thirtieth, two thousand twenty-four. September thirtieth, two thousand twenty-four, loan total is made up of 40% fixed rate loans, 31% floating rate loans, and 29% variable rate loans. I will now turn it over to Charlotte Rasche.

Charlotte Rasche (EVP and General Counsel)

Thank you, Tim. At this time, we are prepared to answer your questions. Our call operator will assist us with questions.

Operator (participant)

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question today is from Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Manan Gosalia (Executive Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Hi, good morning.

H.E. Timanus (Chairman)

Good morning.

Charlotte Rasche (EVP and General Counsel)

Good morning.

Manan Gosalia (Executive Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

You noted that NIM should continue to improve to more normal levels as assets reprice. I was wondering how you feel about the NIM guidepost that you've previously given?

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

Again, I think we're sticking with what we said. We should exit our NIM at three at by near year-end. Again, that's. There's a lot of things that go into that. That's if rates stay exactly where they are. If rates go down, of course, we'll have to lower our money market accounts by twenty-five basis points to exit at three, but we still plan on exiting the year at a 3% NIM.

Then in, for twelve months ending in 2025, our model is showing that we'll average 3.27% for the year, which means it'll be lower in the beginning of the year and higher at the end of the year. Then in 2026, our model is still projecting 3.65%. I'll put a caveat on that. That looks a little strong to me, but that's just what the model is showing right now. And again, those are taking into consideration the interest rates at the end of the year. Prime is 7.5, and in 2025, we'll finish the prime at 6.5, and in 2026, the prime is 6. So that's the difference that's going into those.

Manan Gosalia (Executive Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Got it. So in terms of the rate environment, what is the best rate environment for you to achieve, you know, that NIM of 3.5% or 3.4% or so in the medium term? What are the puts and takes if the short-end rates decline another 150 basis points from here, or if they don't decline as much, where does that put you in terms of that medium-term NIM?

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

Really historically, and I'm just pulling out a sheet of paper just so I'm making sure what I tell you is accurate, but really, it doesn't change a lot in over a twelve-month period, whether interest rates went up two hundred basis points or went down two hundred basis points. I don't see... I think if interest rates were to stay right now, if we'd probably have a little bit higher net interest margin. If they went up, we'd have just a little bit higher net interest margin. If they go down, it's a little bit lower, but they really don't change a whole lot, interest rates going up or down. I'd say that's up to two hundred basis points.

I think if they went down more than 200 basis points, then it probably would start to affect us more.

Manan Gosalia (Executive Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Got it. So I guess relative to the forward curve, if rates were up or down 50 basis points, it sounds like you can still get some nice NIM expansion from here.

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

Our models are showing that we, everything that we've been saying for the last, throughout the year is still going forward for the end of this year and also going forward for twenty-five, and also going forward for twenty-six and even twenty-seven. So what we're looking forward still looks very good for us.

Manan Gosalia (Executive Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Catherine Mealor with KBW. Please go ahead.

Catherine Mealor (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Thanks. Good morning. To just follow up on that, on just deposit cost, what you're seeing so far. You've got such a low deposit base relative to others. Should we see, you mentioned you might bring money markets down 20 basis points if we get another cut this quarter, but maybe just any kind of commentary you can give on what you've seen so far. And do we actually see deposit costs on the whole down the next couple of quarters, or is it more kind of stable, and then, you know, more of this NIM lift is coming from the asset remix?

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

I, you know, again, gut feeling, but if interest rates go where they're at, and, you know, we should get some repricing on the CDs. And, you know, we could have shown a lot of growth if we wanted to in deposits, you know, if we would have came up with a product and said, you know, we're gonna pay 5.5% on a CD, and, you know, it would have been easy for us to raise. You know, you can raise 500 or $1 billion if you wanted to. But again, we didn't want to do that. You know, our deposit, our CD ratio is only about 16% of our deposits. But again, we easily could have raised that up if we wanted to. We didn't.

Our real focus is on this net interest margin, and that's kind of where we're focused. I think that our basis and Asylbek Osmonov can jump in anytime he wants on this deal, but again, for every hundred basis points down, our beta is twenty-two basis points.

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

For the interest-bearing deposits and 13 based on total deposits. And just to add the color, which we're saying right now. So when we had 50 basis cut initially in September, we didn't cut our general rate, but what we did, we cut the special rate we provide to our customers. We cut the rates on those, and as you remember, we introduced those special CDs, and we cut the rates on those special CDs. And from the maturity-wise on CDs, if you look at the total CDs, 75% of those CD will mature within six months, and 91% gonna mature within a year. So duration of those CD is short. So as they reprice, we should get a benefit on the cost of deposit, cost of funding side. And we do expect cost of deposits going down next quarter. And

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

It should, it should go down. Our net margins improve with the repricing of the-

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

Mm-hmm.

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

-$2 billion that rose off of our bonds and repricing on our loans. All of that should be a real positive to make our net interest margin-

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

Mm-hmm

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

... go where we want it to go.

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

I think overall, our exit deposit cost was at the end of September, was already lower than average on the Q3. So we, trajectory-wise, we're going down, so that's what we continue to see as CD reprice.

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

Probably one caveat I would say that if interest rates, if they came down, kept coming down at fifty basis points at the top, that affects us. It takes us a little bit more time to adjust. You know, I think coming down to twenty-five basis points, we're fine, but if they come down in bigger increments, it takes us a little bit longer to adjust, I think.

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

Mm-hmm.

Catherine Mealor (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Okay, that makes sense. And then, you saw nice growth in the warehouse as you guided to last quarter. Any outlook to what we should see, out of that business for the back half of the year?

Randy Hester (Chief Lending Officer)

Sure. I, I'll take that one. You're, you're right, we ended up the quarter on a high note at $1.229 billion. I think we averaged $1.115 billion for the quarter, so-

... both of those were a little higher than we were forecasting. Just as a data point, we closed last night at $1.243 billion, so it's remained pretty strong. The average for this quarter through last night is $1.201 billion. I would say it's likely, and again, rates play a factor in this whole equation. It's likely those numbers come down for seasonal weakness in November and December. And if I had to put a number on it, I'm gonna say we would average for the quarter, probably $1.05 billion to maybe $1.1 billion. So it's gonna come off from the highs we're at today. But frankly, we've enjoyed these highs for a little longer than I've anticipated.

Catherine Mealor (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Yes, for sure. Okay, great. Thank you.

Randy Hester (Chief Lending Officer)

Yeah, and just... This is a follow-up on that. We have recently added one new customer to the warehouse. That's the first time in a while. We have been letting some customers go. I think we let seven or eight customers go over the course of the last year. This is now going back the other way. We added a customer, and we have had some increases to a couple of other customers. So net-net, I think we've added $140 million worth of new commitments so far this month.

Catherine Mealor (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Ibrahim Poonawala with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Ebrahim Poonawala (Managing Director)

Good morning.

Randy Hester (Chief Lending Officer)

Morning.

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

Good morning.

Ebrahim Poonawala (Managing Director)

I just wanted to follow up on the NIM guidance outlook. David, you mentioned, I think the three twenty-seven average or full year implies exiting next year by three point four, something around between three point four, three point five. And you mentioned some prime rate assumptions. Does that assume another fifty, hundred basis points of rate cuts over the next twelve months to get to that three twenty-seven-ish average for full year 2025?

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

For 2025-

Ebrahim Poonawala (Managing Director)

Yep.

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

The prime rate, we have ending at 6.5%, and would average 3.27. I don't have what the exit's gonna be, but it should be higher than the 3.27. Do you have that, Asylbek? I don't have it in front of me.

Randy Hester (Chief Lending Officer)

I don't have it, but I think it's gonna be a bit-

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

Your numbers are probably pretty close to what you're saying, let's say.

Ebrahim Poonawala (Managing Director)

If I heard you correctly, the biggest risk to that view is if we get rapid rate cuts. Slower rate cuts, steeper curve, all of that should be neutral to positive to that kind of a model outcome?

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

I think so. That's right.

Ebrahim Poonawala (Managing Director)

That's helpful. And just separately, I think you mentioned about M&A. Like, yes, there needs to be more M&A, but it, it's been tough. Obviously, elections may have implications, but if we don't have a big change in the regulatory backdrop coming out of elections, do you still see it as conceivable that First Horizon could do a deal or two in the next six to 12 months?

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

I do. I mean, I'm not saying we're out there. We're not. Again, we're not out there just jumping to do deals. We're not gonna do that. But you know, if it's a good deal for us and that we can get some good accretion on it, and it makes sense, and it makes us stronger, then we'll do it. But again, we're not out there just trying to go out there and buy banks. Our real focus right now is to grow our bank and really focus on our net interest margin. For us, right now, our biggest focus is our net interest margin, to get it to where it's more normalized level. But again, we do M&A.

You know, I'll give you kind of I know I read somebody where they talked about our growth a little bit, so I'll just, you know. When I started with the bank, it was we were $40 million in size and had about 15 employees. Then we went public in 1998, we were about $300 million in size. And so, over the years, we've grown organically and through M&A growth. From an organic standpoint, we usually grow 2%-4% a year on the deposits and 6%-8% a year on the loans. Having said that, it's hard sometimes for an analyst to see that because they don't see the amount of loans when we go into a bank and that we get out of those loans and have to make up that difference.

But the combination of the M&A and the organic growth together has given us double-digit growth over all these years. And so, you know, it really, we've grown from a $300 million bank when we went public in 1998 to almost a $40 billion bank today. So the thought that we don't grow would just be a misnomer. It's just, we do grow and we'll continue to grow. We are gonna focus on our net interest margin right now. Again, I think that that's our primary focus. And again, I think growth has been harder by... If you want to say growth has been harder this quarter, that's probably something that's legitimate because you haven't seen the loan growth, and we didn't go out and purchase a bunch of deposits just to raise the cost of money.

But again, everybody has to remember that that's what, that's what the Fed wanted. They wanted to raise rates this high. They want to slow down the economy, and that's kind of where we're at right now. So long, long answer. I'm sorry. I just wanted to give you some color on it.

Ebrahim Poonawala (Managing Director)

No, that's helpful, and that's good perspective, David. Just one on the NIM, given the NIM focus. I think Asylbek mentioned 40% fixed rate, 29% variable rate. Do you—I think you mentioned $2 billion in securities cash flows over the next year. What's that equivalent number for loans, and what's the pickup, given the current yield curve of what's maturing and what you're picking up when these things are repricing?

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

So you're right. On securities, we have $2 billion that, let's assume that right now our yield is around 2% and gonna reprice it-

... 4.75 what we have, that's a pickup of 2.75. That's, we're gonna be going toward positive, on our net interest income. On the loan side, I think we have about $5 billion dollar cash flow annually. So on the fixed one, that was at 40% of $5 billion, about around $2.2-$2.3 billion dollars. On the—I think the fixed rate on was like less than 5%, so they're gonna get repriced at 7.5% on the loans. And, about 30% variable, that's still lower than our, loans we're putting up right now. So there's gonna be pickup there, and, floating is floating, so we're not gonna get any benefit on that.

So those are items that kind of push, pull, that would get us to the net interest income that we're quoting, that will continue to increase combination of the securities and fixed loan and variable loans.

Ebrahim Poonawala (Managing Director)

That's helpful. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Matt Olney with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Matt Olney (Managing Director)

Yeah, thanks for taking the question. I guess kind of along the lines of the last comment from Osmonov, I want to ask more about the borrowings. I think there's almost $3.9 billion of borrowings at the quarter end through that Bank Term Funding Program. Just looking for more color on what we should expect there over the next few quarters, especially in the absence of any loan growth.

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

Yeah, on that one, I think we, you know, last Q1 and Q2 and some of the Q3, we're building our cash position at, at that, kind of more regulatory requirement we had. But I think we feel in the position that we're getting there. So right now, I think we'll be paying down, on some of the borrowings. And I know it's a little making the spread, but even we pay down, some of them will be NII neutral, but it'll be NIM, positive. And if we expect another cut, definitely we'll be paying down more on the borrowing. So essentially now the cash flow from the bond portfolio should be going toward the paying down borrowing because of the...

Getting that same spread I was mentioning about, you know, going from two to four and four point seven six at the cost.

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

We did pay down, what, $400 or $500?

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

We paid down five hundred-

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

$500 million.

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

Yeah, in the-

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

3.9 to 3.4.

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

Yeah.

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

That should help our net interest margin as well.

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

Yeah, it's going toward positive that. So we all working toward paying down on borrowing a little.

Matt Olney (Managing Director)

Okay, appreciate that. And then I guess within the margin commentary we discussed on the call, kind of exiting the year in twenty twenty-five, what are you assuming as far as the borrowings, the borrowing position by late twenty twenty-five?

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

I didn't have that in the model.

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

Yeah, on the model, I think we're paying down the borrowing, because once we get to the position of the-

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

Is it paying down more? I guess what he's asking, is it paying down more than the, the $500 million?

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

Yes, I think it's paying down more than the $500 million.

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

Three billion.

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

I don't know exactly, but I know in the model we build in the cash, and then we start paying down the borrowing. I would say paying down another $1 billion-$1.5 billion.

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

Let's make sure we-

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

Yeah.

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

We don't know that for sure.

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

Yeah.

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

That's a big number, so we'll look into it.

Matt Olney (Managing Director)

Maybe just to clarify, as far as the overnight liquidity position, the big build we saw at the quarter end, over $2 billion. Do you expect to maintain that for most of next year, or could we see some of that overnight liquidity come down a little bit from where it was at September thirtieth?

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

We've already brought that down. That's what we used to pay down the $500 million in the borrowing.

Asylbek Osmonov (CFO)

Yeah, I think the range we gave is $1.5 billion-$2 billion, so that's gonna fluctuate. So we're comfortable at $1.5 billion, and we're comfortable at $2 billion. So based on the situation, we'll be somewhere in that range.

Matt Olney (Managing Director)

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you, guys.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Peter Winter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Thanks. I wanted to ask about the loan portfolio. If you could just provide maybe an update on the loan outlook and pipelines and where you think what inning you think you are in terms of the First Capital runoff?

Randy Hester (Chief Lending Officer)

Oh, man, I'll take that one, but I might need some help on First Capital. I think First Capital runoff has been to date $420 million. So we're. I'd say we're near the end of the First Capital runoff. But there'll be some dribs and drabs, but nothing like the $420 million we've already run off. That's obviously, that's been a headwind to growth, Peter. That said, I think, you know, for the end of the year, you know, it's gonna be low single digits until after the election and maybe some additional rate cuts. And low single digits may trail its way into the first quarter of next year.

Peter Winter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah.

Randy Hester (Chief Lending Officer)

And then thereafter, to the extent we've got a, let's say, a pro-business environment without, you know, going too deep into the election and lower rates, I think we move ourselves back into the mid-single digit range. Again, part of that is not having the runoff of acquisitions, and we don't expect a lot of runoff from the Lone Star deal. Their assets were right down the middle of the fairway for us, whereas, you know, First Capital was not. Four twenty is a big runoff for a bank of that size. So I think we're gonna get back into the positive zone here going into next year.

The reason I'm delayed a little bit in Q4 and Q1 of next year is, to the extent some of this growth comes out of real estate, we need to get deals approved and their equity put into those deals before we start funding. That's why I'm putting, you know, up to a six-month lag on something better than the low single digit range.

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

And I really do think that the election, it's gonna, that'll be all the difference in the world. If we have a good regulatory environment and your interest rates do come down, that could bump our loans, too. But again, I think a lot of it, a lot of borrowing this year has been affected by customers not really knowing which direction things are gonna go. I think they're hesitant about that, and I think higher interest rates. So if those two things can, you know, that'll help going forward.

Peter Winter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Just if I could follow up. Just, Kevin, when you say low single digit, are you talking quarter to quarter? Like, is your thinking loans held for investment are gonna start to grow slightly in, you know, going into the fourth quarter now?

Randy Hester (Chief Lending Officer)

That's annualized numbers, Peter, in the next two quarters.

Peter Winter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. Got it. And then, David, if I could just-

Randy Hester (Chief Lending Officer)

I would say, you know, while we would get back into that mid-single digit range, I wouldn't think of. I would never think of us as a, as a double digit, kinda 10-12, 15% kinda annualized loan growth comp, unless the economy just was booming and taking off at levels like we haven't seen. We'll be a solid GDP to GDP-plus kinda grower.

Peter Winter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Got it. Thanks. And then, David, just a big picture question on M&A. I mean, obviously, the focus, and you've had a great track record with M&A, creating shareholder value when doing deals. But the question is: Is there a preference to small fill-in deals versus maybe looking at a larger deal and willingness to go into a contiguous market that might move the earnings needle more?

David Zalman (Senior Chairman and CEO)

You know, I wouldn't say that it depends on the size of the deal. I don't know if that has anything to do with the decision. The real decision is, is it a good bank that really enhances our position and makes us a stronger bank, and can we have accretion? Whether that's a $2 billion bank in Texas, or a $20 billion bank somewhere else that really inspires it. It really depends on the people willing to stay with us, the quality of the assets. I will say this, on a bigger deal, we can't take the risk of buying a bank that has, you know, more asset issues. We have to be more careful on that than we do a bank that maybe is $2 billion.

Not that you don't have to worry about that. But I think it really all pins down to the deal that we're looking at. I mean, the deal that we're looking at, it really depends on the people and where it's located, how it helps us. And so there's a lot of bunch of different things that goes into the equation, but I don't know that it really boils down to either a $2 billion deal or a $20 billion deal, really.

Peter Winter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. Thanks, David.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Charlotte Rashe for any closing remarks.

Charlotte Rasche (EVP and General Counsel)

Thank you. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for taking the time to participate in our call today. We appreciate your support of our company, and we will continue to work on building shareholder value.

Operator (participant)

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.