Pitney Bowes - Earnings Call - Q2 2019

Transcript

Speaker 0

Good morning, and welcome to the Pitney Bowes Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Your lines have been placed in a listen only mode during the conference call until the question and answer segment. Today's call is also being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect your lines at this time. I would now like to introduce participants on today's conference call, Mr.

Mark Weltenbach, President and Chief Executive Officer Mr. Stan Sutella, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Mr. Adam David, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. David will now begin the call with a safe harbor overview.

Speaker 1

Good morning. Included in this presentation are forward looking statements about our expected future business and financial performance. Forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from our projections. More information about these risks and uncertainties can be found in our earnings press release, our 2018 Form 10 ks annual report, and other reports filed with the SEC that are located on our website at www.pb.com and by clicking on Investor Relations. Please keep in mind that we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward looking statements as a result of new information or developments.

Also, for non GAAP measures used in the press release or discussed in this presentation, you can find reconciliations to the appropriate GAAP measures in the tables attached to our press release and also on our Investor Relations website. Additionally, we have provided slides that summarize many of the points we will discuss during the call. These slides can also be found on our Investor Relations website. Now our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mark Wombach, will start with a

Speaker 2

few opening remarks. Mark? Good morning and thank you for joining the call. Overall, we turned in a solid performance in the second quarter, making progress against our strategic initiatives and improvement from the start of the year. In particular, our commerce services top line performed very well and exited the quarter with good momentum.

E commerce's domestic parcel volumes through our network grew 42% in the second quarter to 35,000,000 packages processed. Additionally, SMB revenue performance improved sequentially and had good momentum heading into the third quarter. At the May, we hosted Investor Day. At that time, we laid out our long term plan for continued top line growth and expansion of shareholder value. I won't spend this morning rehashing the presentation.

However, there were several significant key messages that we delivered that I do want to reinforce and start providing the signpost to which you can measure our progress. The first is that we will continue to grow revenue and the growth rate will improve. In the second quarter, revenue grew 2% when adjusted for currency and the exit of direct operations in six smaller European markets, which we announced earlier this year. The portfolio continues to shift to growth, particularly around shipping, which comprised 35% of our revenue this quarter. The growth in shipping is largely attributable to our commerce services group, which contributed 48% of our overall revenue.

As a reminder, two years ago, commerce services comprised less than 30% of our portfolio. At this rate and pace, this segment is well positioned and in line with our long term plan of being nearly 60% of our overall revenue. Our second key message was around the path to profitability in the global e commerce business. Lila Snyder, the president of our commerce services group, laid out the strategy which will be driven by continued growth and scalable volumes and operational efficiency. Global e commerce, while not currently at optimal scale, is over $1,000,000,000 business that is growing close to 20% and is EBITDA positive, say.

To be clear, we won't achieve the 42% domestic physical volume growth every quarter, but anything above an average 25% will keep us on track to obtain optimal scale. Our third message was that SMB would achieve flat or improved year over year EBIT dollars in 2021 by growing our shipping capabilities and third party financing. These initiatives are in addition to the work we have already done to stabilize our legacy portfolio and will take time to build, but the high margin shipping and third party financing streams that we are creating are incremental to our current model. In the second quarter, SMB revenue declined 4% when adjusted for currency and the direct operations we exited earlier this year. We continue to place our SendPro C now having over 95,000 units in the market, which means we have placed nearly one third of our targeted existing client opportunity in North America in less than two years.

And we've begun to roll out the SendPro C internationally with the expectation that the product will be in all of the major markets within the next nine months. We're removing the complexity of mailing and shipping all within one device and that value is resonating with our SMB clients. With the SendPro C, we're seeing a mid single digit percent increase in client payment and longer lease terms versus the comparable legacy product, ultimately resulting in higher stream revenue and cash flow over time. We're also focused on activating the shipping applications, which is value based service that comes with the product. In the second quarter, the labels generated through our SME products and solutions in The U.

S. Grew over 35% from the previous year. Additionally, in the second quarter, we started originating third party financing through our new subsidiary, Wheeler Financial. It's still early days. However, we've seen a growing interest in the Wheeler Financial offering and a pipeline that has grown nearly five times since the mid March launch.

We have closed several deals and ultimately are helping our clients to be more successful in their business. Within our legacy financing portfolio, our gross finance receivables grew in the second quarter when compared to the first quarter, which is an early sign of stabilization in the financing stream. Clearly, over time, we expect our legacy financing portfolio to decline in line with the market. However, we expect that rate of decline to moderate as we ramp up new third party financing deals through Wheeler Financial. The final key message, which Stan presented at Investor Day, was that in aggregate, the key points I just discussed will drive continued growth in revenue and expand earnings and free cash flow over the long term plan.

To summarize, I am pleased with the overall performance we turned out this quarter despite results. Performance Revenue continues to grow on a comparable basis and earnings was in line with our expectations. We are focused on delivering a solid second half of the year and the progress we have made this quarter has set us up to achieve our full year targets, while also setting the course for our long term model. Before I turn it over to Stan, let me spend a minute or so on our capital allocation strategy. First and foremost, our strategy has and remains focused on delivering long term value.

We have and will continue to invest in our portfolio ahead of the revenue, particularly around shipping and shipping related capabilities. As our company continues to evolve, we also continue to look at inorganic investments that get us scale in shipping and ensure we are realizing long term value. We continue to remain focused on the balance sheet. We know that we have several tranches of debt that are maturing over the next two years. It's our intention to opportunistically pay down debt and proactively refinance through major.

Earlier this year, we announced that our Board of Directors authorized an additional 100,000,000 share repurchase program, bringing our total authorization to approximately $120,000,000 Through the first half of the year, we completed 100,000,000 having purchased a total of 17,400,000.0 shares, while also returning 18,000,000 in dividends to our common shareholders. With that, let me turn it over to Stan to take you through the details of the quarter and then we'll take your questions.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Mark, and good morning. Our second quarter performance was a substantial improvement from the start of the year and positions us well for the second half to achieve our full year targets. Before I discuss the details of our second quarter, it's important to note a few items. As in the past, unless otherwise noted, my statements going forward will be on a constant currency basis when talking about revenue comparisons and on an adjusted basis when talking about earnings related items including cash flow. Reconciliations of all non GAAP to GAAP measures can be found in the financial statements posted with our earnings press release and on our investor relations website.

Also as a reminder, results in both current and prior periods reflect the new lease accounting standard or ASC eight forty two, which was implemented on January 1. We have posted a file on our investor relations website with the updated recast financials. Additionally, earlier in the year, we announced the sale of direct operations in six small European markets, which did not qualify for discontinued operations treatment. And as such, prior year has not been recast. Turning to our results.

The portfolio continues to shift to higher growth markets. Commerce services comprise 48% of revenue, which is the third consecutive quarter where it is the largest component of our overall revenue. Our shipping related revenues made up 35% of total revenue in the quarter, and that contribution continues to grow. For the second quarter, revenue totaled $861,000,000, which was flat to prior year. When you take the market exits into consideration, revenue grew 2% from prior year.

Looking at revenue by group, commerce services grew 14%, SMB declined 4% when you exclude the impact of the market exits, and software declined 20 from the prior year. Adjusted EPS was $0.21 for the quarter. GAAP EPS was $0.13 GAAP EPS includes charges of $04 related to discontinued operations, 3¢ restructuring, and 1¢ for transaction costs. Free cash flow was 13,000,000 and GAAP cash from operations was 17,000,000. Compared to prior year, free cash flow was lower primarily due to the timing of working capital, in particular accounts payable, as well as lower net income.

This was partly offset by lower capital expenditures and the timing of reserve account deposits. Looking at free cash flow to date, our attainment as a percentage of the midpoint of our annual guidance is about two points lower than prior year. But as we have discussed, as the portfolio increasingly moves to shipping, our second half, and in particular the fourth quarter, is becoming a larger contributor to the full year. Looking at capital allocation. At the end of the quarter, we had $831,000,000 in cash and short term investments on our balance sheet.

During the quarter, we used free cash flow to return $70,000,000 to our shareholders. We repurchased nearly 12,000,000 shares for $61,000,000 We paid $9,000,000 in dividends to our common shareholders. Through the first half of the year, we completed $100,000,000 of the new share repurchase authorization that we announced earlier in the year, purchasing a total of 17,400,000.0 shares. This leaves 21,000,000 of share repurchase authorization as of June 30. Within the quarter, we also used cash for capital expenditures of 32,000,000, the reduction of 13,000,000 in debt, and restructuring payments of 6,000,000.

From a debt perspective, we ended the quarter with 3,200,000,000.0 in total debt, which is approximately $330,000,000 lower than prior year. Last quarter and at Investor Day, I provided additional context of our debt composition. When you take the implied debt associated with our finance receivables of 1,100,000,000 along with the $831,000,000 of cash and short term investments on the balance sheet into account, our implied net debt position on an operating company basis was about $1,300,000,000 at the end of the quarter. We remain focused on the balance sheet. We have several tranches of debt that are maturing over the next two years.

It is our intention to opportunistically pay down debt and refinance the remainder. We have well established relationships with our bank group and are structuring a proactive refinancing plan that reflects a diversity of funding sources and will leverage the capital markets as appropriate. Looking at the P and L, starting with revenue performance by line item as compared to prior year. Business services revenue grew 14%. We had declines in rentals and financing revenues of 4%, support services and equipment sales of 7%, and supplies of 15% and software of 20%.

The market exits from earlier in the year impacted the year to year decline in several of the line items, resulting in a two point negative impact on the overall revenue comparison in the quarter. Gross profit was $380,000,000 with a margin of 44.2%. This is a decline of 4.6 points from prior year, which largely reflects the shifting mix of our portfolio. SG and A was $276,000,000 which was a decline of $13,000,000 from prior year. SG and A as a percent of revenue was 32.1%, which is over one point lower than prior year.

R and D expense was $23,000,000 or 2.6% of revenue. Compared to prior year, R and D expense declined about $1,000,000 and was relatively flat as a percent of revenue. EBIT was $83,000,000 and EBIT margin was 9.6%. Compared to prior year, EBIT declined $29,000,000 and EBIT margin declined by about three points, driven primarily by the gross profit decline. Interest expense, including financing interest expense was 39,000,000, which was 3,000,000 lower than prior year as a result of the debt we paid down over the course of last year.

The provision for taxes on adjusted earnings was about 7,000,000. Our tax rate was 15.2%, reflects the resolution of certain tax examinations in the quarter. Average diluted weighted shares outstanding at the end of the quarter were 178,000,000, which is about 10,000,000 shares lower than prior year, as a result of our shares repurchased. Let me now discuss the performance of each of our business segments this quarter. Within our commerce services group, revenue was $410,000,000, which was growth of 14% over prior year.

EBIT dollars and EBIT margin were essentially breakeven. EBITDA was $24,000,000 and EBITDA margin was 6%. In global e commerce, revenue was $282,000,000 which was growth of 19% over prior year and a 10 improvement from first quarter's growth rate. Within global e commerce, our domestic parcel services delivered strong double digit revenue growth as volumes continue to ramp up through network. We continue to grow volumes both through our services in China as well as our expanding domestic client base.

The domestic parcel volume growth we saw this quarter exceeded expectations and continues to validate the strong value proposition and opportunity we have in this market. As a result of the strong opportunity and growth we are seeing, we continue to expand our network by adding capacity. Shipping solutions also delivered strong double digit revenue growth as volumes through our shipping APIs and delivery services accelerated in the quarter. The segment's revenue growth was partly offset by a decline in cross border, though the year to year decline in our cross border business has improved from prior quarters. EBIT was a loss of $16,000,000 and EBIT margin was negative 6%.

EBITDA was a positive $1,000,000 and EBITDA margin was less than 1%. Margins in the quarter were impacted as we continue to invest in growth opportunities, including marketing programs along with investments in operational excellence initiatives. Additionally, margin was impacted by product and client mix. In the quarter, we saw a majority of revenue growth come from faster growing but lower margin services. As we discussed last quarter, some of this is market driven and some we can influence through actions purposeful to drive mix and productivity.

We remain focused and excited about the long term opportunity for us within this business. We continue to make investments to drive long term value and are seeing true operational signs where these investments are paying off. Our average domestic service delivery time is just under three business days and 47% of our domestic packages are delivered within two business days. Investing in our network for speed and reliability is one of the keys to success of this business. Scale and density will drive positive EBIT.

And our domestic physical volumes this quarter continue to improve, growing 42% to 35,000,000 packages processed. Within presort services, last quarter we spoke about initiatives we are taking to improve the trends in this business. We are encouraged by the early signs of progress we saw in the second quarter. Revenue was $128,000,000 which was growth of 4% over prior year. Compared to prior year, we grew total volumes processed by 2% to over 4,100,000,000 pieces in the quarter.

Volumes grew across all categories with the major drivers being marketing mail and flat. We also saw an improvement in our revenue per piece. As we've discussed, we are working with a third party to layer in productivity initiatives and a new pricing strategy. We have started to see these actions yield results in the second quarter. Revenue per piece and labor cost per unit have both improved from prior year and from prior quarter, which has resulted in an improved EBIT margin.

We expect further improvement throughout the second half of the year. EBIT was $15,000,000 and EBIT margin was 12%, which was an improvement over both prior year and prior quarter. EBITDA was $23,000,000 and EBITDA margin was 18%. Turning to our SMB group, revenue was $378,000,000 which was a decline of 7% from prior year. Excluding the impact of our market exits, revenue declined 4%.

EBIT for the group was $125,000,000 and EBIT margin was 33%. EBITDA was $137,000,000 and EBITDA margin was 36%. North America mailing revenue was $3.00 $3,000,000 which was a decline of 5% from prior year and an improvement in trend from prior quarter. Equipment sales declined 7% from prior year. However, we ended the quarter with a significantly higher backlog compared to prior year.

We continue to make good progress in bringing our SEM Pro C to market. Since launching, we have placed over 95,000 units and are on track in transitioning our client base into the new product. Recurring revenue streams declined in line with the average of the last four quarters, which is an indicator of the portfolio stabilizing. Within our legacy portfolio, our gross finance receivables grew in the second quarter when compared to the first quarter, which is an early sign of stabilization in the financing stream. Business services revenue also grew, which is helped by our new shipping capabilities.

EBIT was 113,000,000 and EBIT margin was 37%, which is an improvement from prior quarter and relatively flat to prior year despite higher costs associated with tariffs related to China. EBITDA was $123,000,000 and EBITDA margin was 40%. EBIT and EBITDA margins benefited from lower expenses. In international mailing, revenue was $75,000,000 which is a decline of 15% from prior year. Excluding the impact of our market exits, revenue declined 3% driven by lower supplies and service revenue partially offset by higher rental revenue.

We experienced weakness in The UK and Germany, which was partly offset by growth in France. EBIT was 12,000,000 and EBIT margin was 16%, which is an improvement over prior year of about two points, mostly due to lower expenses. EBITDA was 14 and EBITDA margin was 19%. Turning to software solutions, revenue was 72,000,000 which was a decline of 20% from prior year, driven by lower license revenue but partly offset by higher subscriptions and SaaS revenue. Prior year included several large renewal license deals, which impacted the revenue comparison this quarter.

In fact, the second quarter last year was the best performance we saw for a second quarter period in five years, hence making it a tough compare. As we have talked about in the past, our software business tends to be lumpy due to the timing of new deals and renewals. As we look into the second half, we enter it with a pipeline of healthy deals. We are confident that this business will deliver full year revenue and EBIT in line with our expectations. EBIT was $2,000,000 and EBIT margin was 3%, which was a decline of 17 points from prior year, mostly due to the decline in license revenue.

EBITDA was $4,000,000 and EBITDA margin was 6%. Let me now address our 2019 guidance. We are reaffirming our full year guidance and still expect revenue, excluding the impacts of currency, to grow in a range of 1% to 3% as compared to prior year. Adjusted EPS to be in a range of 90¢ to $1.5 and free cash flow to be in the range of 200 to $250,000,000 As we have communicated, the portfolio continues to shift to growth, specifically around shipping, making the second half of the year, and in particular the fourth quarter, increasingly our largest revenue, earnings, and cash generating quarter. As a result, we expect third quarter adjusted EPS attainment to the full year to be approximately one point higher than the second quarter's attainment.

Finally, we believe the progress that we have made in the second quarter positions us to achieve our full year guidance. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Speaker 0

And our first question here will come from Shannon Cross with Cross Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thank you very much for taking my question. I guess my first is just on cash understand it's a back end loaded year, but can you talk maybe a bit about what the key drivers will be to be able to meet your cash flow target for the year? And then I have a couple of follow ups. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure. Good morning, Shannon. So first, as we looked at first quarter and second quarter, if you look at the first half in total and compare that on a year to year basis, our attainment is roughly two points below where it was last year. If you look at the back half of the year and compare, I think it will become clear that this is a doable target. Last year we did nearly two fifty million dollars of free cash flow in the back half of the year.

To hit the midpoint of the guidance, we need to do about $180,000,000 or so. Here are the drivers. First and foremost, net income as we expect to continue to improve as we go through the back half of the year. Then the other big driver will be working capital. We mentioned accounts payable specifically in the prepared remarks, and I think if you think about the business shifting more and more to the back end of the year, that will make sense that accounts payable will also improve as you go through the back end of the year.

Now we continue to work on things like DSO and cash recognition. So we're confident in our ability to deliver that free cash flow in the back half of the year.

Speaker 4

Okay. And then when we think about your cash balance, How much cash do you need to run the business? And basically, I'm wondering, you mentioned, I think, some existing cash to pay down debt. And clearly, I assume you're going to try to roll the debt in various ways. So what do you need right now given the changes in your business model from an inter quarter standpoint to make sure that you have enough to run the business?

Speaker 3

Sure. So let me give you a feel for the overall cash. So Today, we have cash and short term investments of $830,000,000 That kind of breaks down of $770,000,000 in cash and 60,000,000 in short term. If you take a look at that, there are different components to the cash, Shannon. First, the cash that's associated with PB Bank is around $250,000,000 right now and that is not accessible for parent needs.

We can use that cash to fund our third party financing initiatives. If we take a look at what we need from a working capital basis, we basically look at around 300,000,000 to run that business and use that. Now one other aspect of this is the amount of cash that's in The US versus non US. Right now we're running about eightytwenty. That will change and it goes up and down.

We continue to work and clean up intercompany loans and things like that. As a matter of fact, we did some work on intercompany loans this quarter, repatriated an additional $24,000,000 and that was some great work by tax and treasury team. So we continue to work that cash balance, but roughly you need about working capital of around 300,000,000 worldwide.

Speaker 4

Great. And then there's just one last question for Mark. From a geographic standpoint, clearly a number of companies have called out weakness in Europe. I was curious, I know you sold off some of the smaller countries and moved to distribution. But just in general, maybe if you could talk about what you're seeing in end markets and sort of obviously there's been a pretty good response to your new products.

I'm just curious if you've seen some of the concerns that others have talked about. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yeah. I would bifurcate between macro conditions and micro conditions. So in a macroeconomic perspective, I see the same thing that everybody else sees. You know, you see from a European theater perspective, you know, concern, deeper concern candidly in The UK as you get closer to Brexit, Indonesia, you know, obviously the issues that are going on in China and candidly at a bilateral level between China and United States are concerning. So those are the macroeconomic things you see, pretty much, you know, same as everyone else.

From a macroeconomic perspective, from a Pitney Bowes perspective, our international business was minus 3%. So pretty darn good performance. And as we contemplate the next several quarters, that performance coupled with the new product gives us a degree of optimism that we will weather whatever macroeconomic storm occurs.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 0

And we'll go to the line of Ananda Baru with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey. Good morning, you guys. Thanks for taking the question. Few, if I could, just just sticking with the the business environment questions, Mark. It it doesn't sound like you guys, you know, feel like you're seeing sort of sales pressure, demand pressure intensifying.

Can you just give us some context about what your experience through the quarter was just from like a week by week basis with regards to demand environment? And then I have a couple of follow ups. Yes,

Speaker 2

it's a good question. And candidly, as we exited the first quarter, we pointed towards momentum as we exited March into April. I would say that same trend continued in the second quarter. If you look at how the second quarter evolved, and I'll put software off to the side for a second because I think that was those issues were internal to us. The quarter accelerated both from an SMB as well as a global e commerce perspective.

SMB, partially because of the new product, partially because some pretty clever marketing programs as well as some very good sales execution, you know, had, I would say, increasingly good performance as the quarter evolved. Global e commerce, you know, again, I think they performed well, but, you know, we're just camped out in global e commerce in a market that's got such strong growth to it that, you know, we're we're we're doing better than market for sure. 42% increase in parcels through our network is a heck of a lot better than the network. But the answer is the same, is that the demand environment for us improved throughout the quarter. And candidly, I think that same trend will exist throughout the back half of the year.

We're very confident in the back half of the year from a top line perspective.

Speaker 5

And could you just provide a little more context with regards to the remarks around adding capacity and and and the volumes that you're actually seeing in China?

Speaker 2

Sure. So added capacity takes on a couple of different dimensions. We've added a couple of different nodes to our network. We've added four nodes to our network, and we've consolidated, replaced, kind of upgraded another two. So that's to both consider increased geographic presence, which is important for the economics of that business.

But it's also, if you look at our sites, know, candidly, they need to get bigger as they accommodate more volume. So that's how the, you know, the network will continue to evolve. We'll add some sites. We've got two important nodes that are coming on online in the East Coast and then one in LA that will be important for peak. So, you know, we continue to invest in demand there.

And again, we do that ahead of demand. And we do that because, you know, if you think about when we bought the logistics business and they hadn't done that, you lose a lot of clients because you can't accommodate the service levels. So you've gotta build the network in front of in front of demand. So that that's kind of the the basic personality of the investment and the dynamic of that business. China to answer your question on China inbound, again, notwithstanding the tensions between the two countries, China inbound is a very fast growing business for us and one that we're we talked about $100,000,000 businesses in the Analyst Day in May.

This will be our next new $100,000,000 business.

Speaker 5

Thanks for the context. And just last one for me is at the Analyst Day, you guys gave a lot of good context around plans for sort of handling the debt portfolio holistically. Can you just give us an update there? Maybe talk to sort of how you're thinking about it. I think it was back in May.

Maybe any context you'd give around timing, at least to the higher level, would be helpful too.

Speaker 3

Sure. Anato, first, we remain focused on the balance sheet. We highlighted this in our Analyst Day, and you see it as we walk through the rest of our performance here. If you take a look, the first step is going to be our Now that goes current in January, but our intention is to renegotiate that in the back half of twenty nineteen.

So that would be the first step as we go through this. We do have several tranches of debt that are maturing over the next couple of years. It's our intention to pay down where we can opportunistically and then to proactively refinance the remainder. We have been working with our bank group for a number of months with the treasury team, and we're structuring a proactive refinancing plan that includes the diversity of funding sources and will leverage the capital markets as appropriate. So I think what you'll see is that we do this earlier for the credit facility, and then we take a proactive approach to the debt maturities.

Speaker 5

That's very helpful. Thanks a lot, guys.

Speaker 0

And next, move to the line of Anthony Lubanci with Sidoti and Company. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes, good morning and thank you for taking the questions. So obviously, know you guys are pleased with the parcel volumes up 42% and revenue in double digits. So just wondering, how should we think about the investments in the market growth opportunities, marketing programs and other initiatives? So just wondering, at what point should we expect maybe a moderation in those investments?

Speaker 3

So first of on the investments, think

Speaker 2

you have

Speaker 3

to step back and look at where we're going. You look at, you cannot drive 42% volume growth with investing in a current quarter. This comes from a period of time of adding capacity, of adding the right marketing programs, and building out the right types of offerings for our clients. If you look at that, clearly it's resonating in a marketplace with 42%. But that happens over time.

I think there are a couple important points here. First, we launched over 60 new clients in Q2. This is a big deal as we go through. We talked about our last twelve months in the last call. We've had better churn metrics.

We're starting to see more cross sell across our offerings. I think as we look at that, Anthony, we're looking at what does it take to continue to grow this business to scale. So we're gonna continue to make those investments. What you will see though is as we gain that scale, you'll start to see the improvements in the economics. And as we go through the back half of the year, I think you should expect that you'll see those improve over time.

I I just add a point here.

Speaker 2

I mean Sure. I I think about this slightly differently. I I don't think about when we're going to stop investing. I I think about how much of this market I can capture. So this is a market that the economics are driven by scale.

So the more scale, the more volume I can put in my network, the more profitable ultimately this will be. So, you know, as I said, it's unlikely that we're gonna get 42% volume growth every quarter. But candidly, as long as you see that kind of demand and you're winning in the market, given how the economics, of this opportunity works, you're gonna do it. I'm gonna do it because, you know, there's first mover advantage, and this is network economics at its, you know, at its core. So the the more full the trucks can be, the more density you can have in particular lanes, the more profitable you will be.

So I I I think about that question in a slightly different context.

Speaker 6

Got it. Got it. And I I did not imply mean to imply that you would stop investing. I I was just wondering as far as kind of where where we should see a pickup in When

Speaker 2

the demand begins to moderate.

Speaker 6

Right. Exactly. So as far as your guidance, just wondering what is kind of the embedded expectation for overall parcel volumes for the full year in 2019?

Speaker 3

I think as you think about this for the year end guidance, first, we're reaffirming our full year guidance and that has the revenue growing 1% to 3%, adjusted EPS of $0.90 to $1.5 and free cash flow of $200 to $2.5 Global e commerce is certainly an important part of that. Again, as Mark said, we don't expect that the 42% is going to necessarily continue through the year, but we are expecting a healthy demand through the back half of the year. That's going to take place in just the physical parcels, but candidly we also expect to see increases in our print labels through that part of the business. As we grow here and add new clients, we expect to get the benefits of that scale. Certainly global e commerce is going to play an important part and I think that we'll see improvement as we go through the The long term economics were of configure that business growing parcel volume 25%.

Speaker 2

You know, would just say as as you point to the back half of the year, you know, Stan captured the dynamics well. The only other thing I would point out is, you know, we have wrapped on the currency issues from last year. So if you think about the 02/2018, you know, the dollar became disproportionately stronger in the second quarter. So the cross border business had been a drag on our overall results. And it's hard to say that when that global e commerce grows 19%, but cross border was a drag on the overall results in the first half.

I don't think the cross border business is going to get crazy from a growth perspective in the second half, but it should be less of a drag for sure.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's very helpful color. And on the pre sort side of the business, so and you touched on this already in your remarks. I just wanted to get a little more clarification. So you you brought in a consultant to to address some of the issues with profitability.

Has that initiative been completed? And are there any other key learnings from that initiative that you wanna may may wanna touch on?

Speaker 3

The initiative is not complete. As we start as you know, these when you're dealing with this amount of labor in this type of market, I think it's important to step back and say it's not a point in time. You're going to always drive productivity. I think if you step back, we clearly have progress in PRESORT. I met with the team earlier this week, and if you take a look, revenue grew 4.4% on 2% volume growth.

We saw an EBIT margin improvement of nearly two points year to year and a point quarter to quarter. Our work on these, and remember these areas include operations, scheduling, dispatch, logistics, pricing. We expect that we'll see continued improvement in the back half of the year. Our arrangement with this consultant ensures participate in that and continue to help us drive that.

Speaker 2

Yeah. I I would say the diagnostic is mostly complete although we continue to learn more. I would say step back and, you know, what what have we learned? I mean, this is a business that had been really successful for a decade, and it had been successful by managing two basic variables. One is volume through the network, and the second is five digit capture.

Those two variables continue to be important, but what happened over the last, you know, twelve or eighteen months is, you know, the labor market tightened up and transportation expense got, you know, increased. So, you know, the the the broader lesson is you gotta keep your eye on array of variables as macroeconomic, you know, in particular, labor and transportation conditions evolve.

Speaker 6

All right. Thank you very much and best of luck.

Speaker 0

And our next question will come from the line of Allen Kleat with Maxim Group. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Yes, hi. With Wheeler Financial, can you tell us how much money was put to work providing financing during the quarter? And do you still and how much do you still think that the same amount can be put to work for the whole year that you originally thought? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yeah, thanks Alan. So just a reminder for those maybe who aren't as familiar, Wheeler Financial is a subsidiary of the Pitney Bowes Bank that we've set up to help drive small to middle market clients acquire assets they need to grow and expand their own business. This would be third party lending that could take the form of loans or leases. We started this and we've been very deliberate, I use that word specifically. We want to do it right.

We want to do it with meeting all the regulatory requirements, the right item for our clients and going out. While we have started writing this in Q2, we have not written a lot of new business yet, but we are encouraged. Since launching Wheeler, the pipeline of deals has grown nearly 5x. It's over 125,000,000 now for the overall We're going to see how the progress goes in the second half of the year. What I would tell you though is that we are going to be deliberate.

We're going to do deals that make sense. We've walked away from deals that don't make sense financially. We're looking to address the needs of our clients and do that in a proactive way. We're going see how the back half of the year plays out. I think we've gained some momentum here going through Q2.

We're encouraged by the pipeline and encouraged by the first set of deals that we've announced.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you. And then shifting to global e commerce, can you expand on the comments of margins down to a mix shift to faster growing areas, what that means? And does that have any implications on your longer term margin guidance for the segment? And then one other thing on the segment is you talk about the domestic market and then cross border.

Can you help size us of how much of global e commerce is domestic versus cross border and the growth rates of each one? Thanks.

Speaker 3

The margin component here. So if you take a look at margins, we step back, we had good volume growth here in delivery of 42%. We've talked about the investments that we've made. But we are seeing a mix in the business. This was contemplated in our Investor Day presentation.

You see that here with what we've announced. Delivery far outpaced the higher margin returns business. And cross border improved, but it's still a drag. So that's kind of the mix dynamic that you're seeing within the business is delivery, which is the lower margin, has far outpaced you know, returns and cross border. We expect that that's going to ebb and flow.

But there are a few different items that I think you need to take into account. First, we are starting to see more cross sell within that. And what I mean by that is lining up shipping and the deliveries with fulfillment and selling them as bundles. That cross sell, as that grows, I think has two things. One, we serve our clients better.

They get a more end to end experience. Two, it also makes it stickier and allows us to build the margin profile across that business. So we expect that margins will improve as we gain scale through this. But as we do look, we continue to see that return is not growing as fast as delivery is. And that will ebb and flow through time.

And your question about domestic versus cross border, we haven't put out the exact sizing on that. What I would tell you is, we look at where the opportunity demand is and that we go after that demand. China inbound, Mark shared that we expect that could be our next $100,000,000 business. That's growing. We're going to continue to go after that demand, but we're also doing domestic.

When we look at domestic, we've added over 65 new clients this quarter in total. We're going to go where that demand is and where we can best leverage our network. Remember, even a cross border comes in and lands within our domestically. That's why the two facilities Mark mentioned in California and on the East Coast are so important. So that's how I'd answer that question, Alan.

Speaker 2

I would say also that the lines blur a little bit between cross border and domestic. You know, the example that Stan gave about China inbound, I mean, candidly, that's not you can recognize that in either of the segment. It's not that we're trying to be opaque here. Just we don't think it'd a very useful metric to put out there.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you. And then when you originally in your, I think, 2018 earnings call, when you gave your 2019 guidance, you said that if the China tariffs got increased from 10% to 25%, that would have something like $04 or $05 impact to your guidance for the year. And that has happened. So is that going to have an impact on your full year guidance?

Or do you think that you're offsetting that through other things?

Speaker 3

So first, thanks for the question on the tariffs. Obviously it's been a dynamic environment here and it has changed. You're correct. What we said back in the fourth quarter was the tariffs we had assumed in our guidance were based off percent. The 25% tariffs are in effect on a good chunk of our business here.

And in fact, with this latest announcement of the next tranche of 10% tariffs added onto that, we think that the total impact from tariffs right now is going be somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 to 5¢. So higher than what was originally assumed in our guidance. And as we look at that, you've seen what we've done through the first half. We are working with our partners to try to mitigate that and offset it. But that is a headwind as we go into the back half of the year.

If we take a look at some of the items we're doing, working with our supply chain partners, It is relocating the source of supply, that's coming in. We did some strategic items around inventory. And then we've looked at alternative, suppliers. Some of these are short term and will help us in 'nineteen. Some are longer term that will help us in 2020.

But it's clearly going to have an impact on the year, and that headwind is going to be $04 to $05 versus an original assumption of $02

Speaker 2

It does now and as we reaffirm our guidance. Correct.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you so much.

Speaker 0

And now we'll go to a follow-up question from Anandam Rowe with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi. I appreciate it. Mark, it's Stan. Just in the prepared remarks, you had mentioned something about M and A. I believe you said kind of inorganic opportunities.

Is there an opportunity or here's what I would love, just some context around the broader opportunity in shipping to be able to add scale over time in a material way? Yeah. What does the landscape look like there? Thanks a lot.

Speaker 2

Yeah. So first of all, I would say inorganic could be an acquisition. It could also potentially be a joint venture or take other forms beyond a pure acquisition. We looked candidly at the landscape of potential acquisition targets for shipping. There's some decent targets out there.

I hate the prices. So, you know, right now, I would say we're not a likely buyer, given these prices. If price environment changes, and the risk of some of these acquisition changes, you know, we'd reconsider. But, you know, along with our banking partners, we've taken a pretty robust look at what's out there. And, you know, while we're open to it, as I said in the remarks, you know, intellectually, not at these price levels.

Speaker 5

Got it. Is is there anything that you can share just about how they're priced? Like, do you feel like they're elevated above normal, or are they sort of, like, typical, but you'd wanna see them come in?

Speaker 2

Yeah. So let me double click, if I could. I mean, I would say the prices are high, as you contemplate, you know, what's going on in the transportation logistics market overall. So, you know, there's a lot of demand. We probably could have gotten through that, but there's a second dimension which is more concerning.

That is the labor laws in particular as it relates to many of the logistics companies are in flux. So that makes it really hard to contemplate the risk associated with any particular acquisitions. I'd say the prices are high. I'd say the risk because of some of the things that are going on in, the legal world, has become really hard to assess.

Speaker 5

That's helpful, Mark. I appreciate it. Thanks.

Speaker 0

Currently, we have no further questions in queue. I can turn the call back over to Mr. Lautenbach, if you have any closing comments.

Speaker 3

Just to stand here, I want to clarify one item. So Alan, you asked about the tariffs. Just so I'm clear, we are reaffirming our full year guidance knowing that that tariff impact is $0.04 to $05 Thanks,

Speaker 2

Ann. So listen, I'll go back to one of the other questions. If you had to sum up the quarter in a single word, the word I would choose is momentum. Momentum increased throughout the quarter. As we look at the month of July, we see that momentum continuing to increase.

If you double click on the complexion of the business, SMB has got strong momentum partially because of the product announcements and the pending product announcements, partially because a higher backlog that Stan pointed to as we exit the quarter. And I would say some pretty darn good sales execution around the world and some marketing programs, in particular some marketing programs that are aimed at competitors that are are working. Within global e commerce, listen, it's a fantastic market. We're well positioned, you know, within, you know, what I would characterize as relatively small niches within the global e commerce market, but niches that we think we can win in, and niches importantly that, we can win and be profitable in over time. And, you know, candidly, as we get to the back half of the year, you know, if you think about the revenue performance of the Global Ecommerce business going from 9% to 19% first quarter to second quarter, we see that momentum continuing into the second half of the year.

So I really like how we're positioned. Software, candidly, was disappointing in the second quarter. That said they've got a robust pipeline of deals in the second half of the year. We're certainly unfortunately accustomed to software having some up and down quarters, but they've got a very robust pipeline as we get into the second half of the year, and we continue to be very confident about our channel execution there. So all in all, good quarter, but excited about the momentum that we're bringing in the second half.

With that, we'll close this call, and, we look forward to talking to

Speaker 3

you all soon. Thank you.

Speaker 0

Thank you. That does conclude the conference for today. Thanks for your participation in fusing AT and T Executive Teleconference. You may now disconnect.