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PG&E Corp (PCG)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 GAAP EPS was $0.30 (vs. $0.43 in Q4 2023) and non-GAAP core EPS was $0.31 (vs. $0.47), with the YoY decline driven by the prior-year recognition of the 2023 GRC, partially offset by a higher 2024 ROE via ACCAM .
  • FY 2024 non-GAAP core EPS rose 11% to $1.36; operating cash flow increased to $8.0B from $4.7B in 2023; non-fuel O&M fell 4% YoY, exceeding the 2% target .
  • 2025 GAAP EPS guidance was reaffirmed at $1.30–$1.36; non-GAAP core EPS guidance was raised by $0.01 to $1.48–$1.52; non-core items guidance increased to $360–$400M after-tax .
  • Capital plan remains $63B through 2028 and equity needs are “fully satisfied”; dividend strategy targets ~20% payout of core EPS by 2028; Q1’25 dividend set at $0.025 (annualized $0.10) .
  • Call catalysts centered on: potential AB 1054 enhancements; accelerating data center load pipeline (5.5 GW with 1.4 GW advanced); investment-grade trajectory; and bill stabilization efforts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Delivered FY 2024 core EPS growth of 11% to $1.36 and raised 2025 core EPS guidance midpoint by $0.01 to $1.50 (range $1.48–$1.52) .
  • Strong cash generation and cost discipline: 2024 operating cash flow $8.0B (vs. $4.7B in 2023); non-fuel O&M reduced 4% YoY, exceeding target; CEO: “performance is power” and “fourth consecutive year of delivering predictable premium results” .
  • Safety and growth positioning: second consecutive year of zero major wildfires from company equipment; data center pipeline at 5.5 GW with 1.4 GW advanced to next phase; management expects beneficial load to reduce customer bills 1–2% per 1 GW .

What Went Wrong

  • Q4 YoY EPS down: GAAP EPS $0.30 vs. $0.43 and core EPS $0.31 vs. $0.47, largely due to timing—2023 GRC recognition in Q4’23; partial offset from 2024 ROE uplift .
  • Non-core items elevated: Q4 included items such as tax-related adjustments (-$0.10), prior period regulatory impacts (+$0.02), StanPac settlement (+$0.04), and wildfire-related costs (+$0.01); FY 2024 non-core totaled $448M after-tax .
  • External overhangs: Investor focus on AB 1054/wildfire fund resilience and rating agency timing; management emphasized advocacy for timely enhancements and noted agencies’ measured approach despite improved metrics .

Financial Results

Quarterly EPS trend (oldest → newest):

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
GAAP EPS ($)$0.24 $0.27 $0.30
Non-GAAP Core EPS ($)$0.31 $0.37 $0.31
Income Available for Common ($M)$520 $576 $647

Q4 YoY EPS comparison:

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
GAAP EPS ($)$0.43 $0.30
Non-GAAP Core EPS ($)$0.47 $0.31

Annual revenue (context):

MetricFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Total Operating Revenues ($M)$21,680 $24,428 $24,419

KPIs:

KPIFY 2023FY 2024Notes
Operating Cash Flow ($B)$4.7 $8.0 Company-reported OCF progression
Non-fuel O&M Reduction (%)—4% Reduction vs. 2023
Major Wildfires Caused by Equipment—0 Second consecutive year
System Hardening in 2024 (miles)—366 total (258 underground; 108 overhead) Highest fire-risk areas
Data Center Pipeline (GW)—5.5 (1.4 GW advanced) As of early Feb 2025
2025 Dividend (annualized)$0.04 (2024 ref) $0.10 Q1’25 declared $0.025/sh

Estimates vs. actuals: S&P Global consensus could not be retrieved due to API rate limits during this session; we cannot assess beat/miss for Q4 2024 at this time.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
GAAP EPSFY 2025$1.30–$1.36 $1.30–$1.36 Maintained
Non-GAAP Core EPSFY 2025$1.47–$1.51 $1.48–$1.52 Raised ~$0.01
Non-core items (after tax)FY 2025$340–$380M $360–$400M Increased
5-Year Capex Plan2024–2028$63B (raised by $1B at Q3) $63B (no change) Maintained
Dividend StrategyThrough 2028Target ~20% payout of core EPS Target ~20% payout of core EPS Maintained
Equity Needs2024–2028$3B guided previously “Equity needs fully satisfied” De-risked

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (prior)Q3 2024 (prior)Q4 2024 (current)Trend
AB 1054 / Wildfire FundFramework reiterated; protections outlined Same; liquidity/prudency/cap noted Advocating timely enhancements; leadership focus; fund longevity concerns Elevating urgency
Data center/AI loadBeneficial load modeling; 1–2% bill reduction per ~1 GW Stronger load narrative tied to capex growth Pipeline 5.5 GW, 1.4 GW advanced; Rule 30 filing; no new gen needed for first ~4 GW Accelerating
O&M efficiency2% annual reduction target; inspection/process gains Track to targets 4% 2024 reduction; >$200M saved for 3rd straight year Above plan
Cost of capitalACCAM effects discussed Phase 2 approved Oct’24 Filing planned; no wildfire adder; rates up Active
Credit ratingsImprovement targeted; plan supportive Same Agencies measured; 2-notch upgrade “off the table” near-term Watchful
DOE loanNot in plan; optional financing lever —$15B LPO guarantee signed; disbursements later; not assumed in plan Optional tailwind
AffordabilitySimple, affordable model; stabilize bills Same Jan’25 bills flat YoY with similar usage Improving

Management Commentary

  • “Our core earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $0.31, bringing us to $1.36 for the year, and 11% growth over 2023… With our December issuance, the equity need to fund our $63 billion capital investment plan through 2028 is fully behind us.” — CEO Patti Poppe .
  • “Our redeployment for the full year was $0.16 and went towards programs that support risk mitigation… There is no change to our 5-year $63 billion capital plan… With our equity needs through 2028 derisked, we can focus on providing affordable and resilient power.” — CFO Carolyn Burke .
  • “We have formal applications representing 5.5 gigawatts of new potential data center load… 1.4 gigawatts has passed through the preliminary engineering study phase… We estimate 1% to 2% electric bill reduction per 1 GW.” — CEO Patti Poppe .
  • “Timely reforms are needed to extend the AB 1054 framework… building and improving upon core protections is a critical priority… California’s approach has allowed utilities to become industry leaders in wildfire mitigation.” — CEO Patti Poppe .

Q&A Highlights

  • AB 1054/wildfire fund: State leaders focused on enhancements; creation of Governor’s Senior Counsel role for wildfire issues signals urgency; management not ruling out “Stage 1” legislative resolution this year .
  • Data center interconnections: 5.5 GW pipeline; 1.4 GW advanced; no new generation needed for first ~4 GW; Rule 30 proposes upfront funding by large-load customers to mitigate stranded asset risk .
  • Cost of capital: Filing in line with peers; no wildfire adder expected; higher rates acknowledged; company to make a “strong case” .
  • Credit rating trajectory: Agencies taking measured approach; equity issuance improved metrics; multi-notch upgrade near-term unlikely, but recognition expected over time .
  • DOE loan cadence: Closed in January; advances expected to be slow in 2025 and ramp 2026–2030; not included in plan assumptions .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to fetch S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue, but the request exceeded daily limits; as a result, we cannot state a beat/miss vs. Wall Street for this quarter. Management highlighted delivery against internal guidance and raised 2025 core EPS guidance by $0.01 .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution remains strong: 11% FY24 core EPS growth to $1.36; OCF doubled vs. 2022; O&M down 4% in 2024 (exceeding target) .
  • 2025 setup improved: Core EPS guidance raised to $1.48–$1.52; GAAP EPS reaffirmed at $1.30–$1.36 .
  • Equity overhang cleared: Equity needs for the $63B 2024–2028 plan fully satisfied; focus shifts to delivery and affordability .
  • Structural growth optionality: 5.5 GW data center pipeline with 1.4 GW advanced and a Rule 30 structure that protects legacy customers; potential 1–2% bill reduction per 1 GW .
  • Policy watch: Potential AB 1054 enhancements are a key 2025 catalyst for valuation, cost of capital, and ratings trajectory; management signaling urgency and constructive engagement .
  • Dividend trajectory: 2025 annualized dividend at $0.10; plan to target ~20% payout of core EPS by 2028 supports growing income stream as balance sheet strengthens .
  • Near-term narrative: Stability in guidance, visible regulatory calendar, continued safety performance, and accelerating beneficial load are supportive, while AB 1054/fund durability remains the principal external swing factor .

Appendix: Additional detail from the 8-K/press materials

  • FY 2024 non-core items totaled $448M after-tax (e.g., wildfire fund amortization, investigation remedies, wildfire-related costs, tax-related adjustments), with a detailed Q4 breakdown (e.g., tax-related adjustments -$0.10 EPS; StanPac settlement +$0.04 EPS) .
  • FY 2025 non-core EPS components include ~+$0.10 for wildfire fund amortization, ~+$0.04 investigation remedies, ~+0.01 wildfire-related costs, and ~-0.01 prior period net regulatory impacts, among others .

Sources: PG&E Q4 2024 Form 8‑K and EX‑99.1 press release and slides; Q4 2024 earnings call transcript; Q3 and Q2 2024 8‑Ks and slides; dividend press release – – – – .