PD Q1 2026: 20% Margin, GAAP Profit Path & 5% Revenue Growth
- Enterprise Momentum and Upside Potential: Executives highlighted strong new logo growth, key multiproduct and multiyear deals—such as a 7‑figure digital operations transformation deal and expanding relationships with large, strategic customers—which indicate an expanding enterprise pipeline and enhanced visibility into future revenue growth.
- Innovative AI and Operational Differentiation: The company is successfully leveraging its mature AI Ops and generative AI solutions to drive efficiency and create new use cases, with strong customer interest demonstrated during initiatives like PagerDuty On Tour. This robust demand for AI-enhanced incident management and automation supports a compelling long‑term competitive advantage.
- Disciplined Cost Management and Margin Improvement: Management emphasized improved operating margins and a clear path to GAAP profitability—with non‑GAAP operating margins at 20% and cost reductions (e.g., lower payroll and stock‑based compensation)—underscoring operational efficiency that supports sustainable growth.
- Execution Challenges: Management cited rep transitions and coverage gaps during the quarter, which could impede consistent sales execution and delay revenue realization.
- Enterprise Churn and Downgrades: Elevated churn in the SMB segment and downgrades in enterprise accounts—exacerbated by merger activities and macro uncertainty—pose risks to ARR growth and long-term customer retention.
- Deferred Revenue Impact: Guidance indicates reliance on improved bookings in the back half of the year to drive future revenue, suggesting near-term revenue deceleration and potential pressure on operating margins.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +7.7% (from $111.17M in Q1 2025 to $119.81M in Q1 2026) | **The revenue increase builds on previous successes in upselling and expanding the existing customer base, with a strong U.S. market presence (72% of total revenue) continuing to drive growth. ** |
Loss from operations | Improved by over 50% (from –$21.73M in Q1 2025 to –$10.33M in Q1 2026) | **Operational efficiencies achieved through cost management and margin improvements (including leveraging new AI features and similar initiatives seen in prior periods) have significantly reduced operating losses. ** |
Net Loss attributable to common stockholders | Reduced by approximately 62% (from –$17.35M in Q1 2025 to –$6.50M in Q1 2026) | **The dramatic drop results from a combination of higher revenue and disciplined control of expenses—reducing factors such as restructuring and stock-based compensation costs—that continued the improvement trend from previous periods. ** |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (Annual) | FY 2026 | $500M to $507M | $493M to $499M | lowered |
Net Income per Diluted Share (Annual) | FY 2026 | $0.90 to $0.95 | $0.95 to $1 | raised |
Operating Margin (Annual) | FY 2026 | 19% to 20% | 20% to 21% | raised |
Revenue (Quarterly) | Q1 FY 2026 | $118M to $120M | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Net Income per Diluted Share (Quarterly) | Q1 FY 2026 | $0.18 to $0.19 | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Operating Margin (Quarterly) | Q1 FY 2026 | 15% | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Revenue (Quarterly) | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | $122.5M to $124.5M (growth of 6% to 7%) | no prior guidance |
Net Income per Diluted Share (Quarterly) | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | $0.19 to $0.20 | no prior guidance |
Operating Margin (Quarterly) | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | 17% | no prior guidance |
Trailing 12-Month Billings Growth (Quarterly) | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | 7% | no prior guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | Q1 2026 | $118 million to $120 million | $119.81 million | Met |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
Enterprise Growth & Pipeline Expansion | In Q4 2025, Q3 2025, and Q2 2025 calls the focus was on deepening strategic, multiyear, multiproduct enterprise contracts and building stronger, high‐value pipelines with rigorous visibility and disciplined execution. | Q1 2026 emphasized a transformation to strategic, deep cross-company relationships, highlighted enterprise account expansion and maturing the sales team, while noting a strong pipeline demand driven by AI-enhanced solutions. | Recurring emphasis on enterprise growth continues with an evolving focus on strategic relationships and pipeline quality; the sentiment is increasingly positive as the company scales its enterprise coverage and leverages AI to drive future growth. |
AI and Automation | Previous periods (Q2–Q4 2025) highlighted the launch and expansion of PagerDuty Advance, integration of AIOps, generative AI and automation features, and product diversification to capture cost-savings and drive incremental ARR. | In Q1 2026, the discussion deepened on expanding generative AI capabilities, introducing new AI agents, and further integrating AI Ops into incident management and automation workflows, reinforcing strategic positioning in an AI-first operating environment. | Continuous investment and stronger product differentiation through AI remain central; the evolution shows accelerated deployment of AI features and enhanced integration, reinforcing its long-term impact on the platform. |
Operational Efficiency and Margin Improvement | Across Q2–Q4 2025, management detailed improvements in gross and operating margins, disciplined cost control, enhanced sales efficiency, and stable free cash flow, with targets steadily rising. | Q1 2026 reported achieving a 20% non-GAAP operating margin, clear progress toward GAAP profitability, and continued cost optimization (e.g. reduced personnel costs and stock-based compensation), supporting a long-term target of 30% margin. | Consistent positive progress with margins improving period-over-period; sentiment remains upbeat as operational efficiencies are further optimized to support long-term profitability. |
Sales Execution and Transformation Challenges | Q2–Q4 2025 discussions focused on adapting to evolving customer buying behaviors, transitioning from a transactional to a value-led, top-down sales approach, and addressing longer sales cycles while gradually improving pipeline execution. | In Q1 2026, the company acknowledged temporary execution gaps caused by organizational transitions, noted intentional changes to build a more strategic enterprise sales force, and recognized short-term revenue impact, expecting improvements later in the year. | Recurring transformation challenges persist; however, there is a clear upward shift toward hiring more experienced, enterprise-focused talent which is expected to yield improved execution and stronger long-term results despite near-term disruptions. |
Revenue Guidance and Deferred Revenue Concerns | Q2–Q4 2025 calls provided detailed revenue guidance adjustments due to timing issues (e.g., professional services lags, shorter quarters) and discussed deferred revenue elements such as Remaining Performance Obligations and billings, with cautious but steady outlooks. | Q1 2026 guidance reflects similar subscription-based revenue recognition challenges, with updated ranges indicating modest growth and highlighting that booking improvements will primarily benefit future periods; no new deferred revenue concerns were explicitly raised. | Guidance remains cautiously optimistic with deferred revenue issues continuing to affect current quarter performance; improvements in execution are expected to translate into future fiscal periods while overall long-term revenue trends remain positive. |
Customer Churn and SMB/Commercial Segment Challenges | In Q2–Q4 2025, elevated churn in the SMB segment and negative growth issues were highlighted, although there were early signs of stabilization and modest recovery, particularly with small tech startups and commercial initiatives. | Q1 2026 again noted elevated churn particularly in the SMB segment, along with enterprise downgrades linked to factors like mergers and macro uncertainty; however, strong new logo growth and targeted post-sales improvements (including a new Chief Customer Officer) were also underscored. | Recurring SMB/churn challenges persist, though strategic adjustments and improved acquisition signals are emerging; overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic with clear initiatives to stabilize and reverse negative trends in the segment over time. |
Competitive Landscape and Market Dynamics | Q2–Q4 2025 emphasized differentiated platform capabilities (including AI Ops), competitive resilience during outages, and strategic wins over legacy vendors, with some focus on mid-market pricing pressures versus enterprise reliability. | In Q1 2026, competitive wins were highlighted through large, strategic deals, displacement of competitors in global markets, and international expansion, reinforcing confidence in PagerDuty's leadership in digital operations and AI-enhanced solutions. | The competitive narrative remains strong and increasingly positive, with continued differentiation and successful global wins; the company’s focus on innovation and strategic displacement supports its market-leading positioning. |
Leadership and Organizational Changes | Q2–Q4 2025 communications discussed multiple leadership appointments, talent rotations, and search efforts (such as for CRO), alongside strategic changes in go-to-market and product leadership designed to align with evolving sales and operational strategies. | Q1 2026 detailed further leadership changes including a new Chief Customer Officer, an ongoing search for a Chief Revenue Officer, board enhancements, and an ongoing transformation of the enterprise sales team, acknowledging current transitional challenges while stressing long-term improvements. | Ongoing leadership evolution remains a constant theme; the organizational changes are designed to boost strategic execution and reinforce enterprise focus, with continued adjustments seen as key to overcoming execution gaps and driving future growth. |
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Profitability Outlook
Q: Why is profitability guidance raised?
A: Management noted lower stock‐based compensation and disciplined cost control, setting a clear path to GAAP profitability through improved operating margins. -
Revenue Guidance
Q: Why lower full-year revenue guidance?
A: They now expect about 5% revenue growth this year due to transitional challenges, with improvements anticipated as sales teams mature. -
Net Retention
Q: What net retention is expected?
A: Management targets net retention between 103% and 105%, buoyed by expansion opportunities in key enterprise accounts. -
Enterprise AI Adoption
Q: Is AI growth hindered by hesitancy?
A: The slowdown is mainly due to execution issues during sales rep transitions, not customer reluctance, with strong new logo growth among native AI companies. -
Billings Trends
Q: Which billings indicator matters most?
A: Trailing 12‑month billings, which align with ARR, better reflect the business's underlying strength than quarterly figures. -
Large Deals
Q: How visible is the large customer pipeline?
A: Multiproduct deals continue to offer solid pipeline clarity, reflecting strong institutional customer confidence. -
ARR Levers
Q: What drives ARR reacceleration?
A: Focusing on retaining strategic customers and expanding existing high-value accounts is seen as the main lever to boost ARR. -
Product Performance
Q: How did non-incident products perform?
A: The AI Ops offering performed well, enhancing cost efficiency and operational effectiveness by reducing noise in observability. -
Enterprise Churn
Q: What explains the observed enterprise churn?
A: Churn was mainly due to small customer downgrades and merger-related adjustments, while core enterprise performance remained steady. -
Market Trends
Q: How do SMB and enterprise trends compare?
A: SMB demand has recovered over two quarters, while enterprise continues steady performance, both driven by strong capital-backed growth. -
AI Win
Q: What was notable about the AI research win?
A: A 6-figure multiyear commitment from a leading AI research firm underscores the platform’s credibility in critical AI operations. -
Future Billings
Q: What are expectations for future billings?
A: Beyond Q2’s 7% growth, no explicit guidance was provided, though improved sales execution is expected to drive stronger bookings later on.
Research analysts covering PagerDuty.