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PI

PFIZER INC (PFE)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025: Revenue $14.65B (+10% YoY operational), Adjusted EPS $0.78, Reported EPS $0.51; raised FY25 Adjusted EPS guidance to $2.90–$3.10 while reaffirming revenue $61–$64B .
  • Beat vs Street: Revenue and Adjusted EPS exceeded consensus; revenue $14.65B vs $13.53B*, Adjusted EPS $0.78 vs $0.57*; drivers included Vyndaqel, Comirnaty, Paxlovid, Padcev, and Eliquis .
  • Guidance mix-shift: Lower FY25 SI&A and R&D ranges and a lower adjusted tax rate (~13%) reflect cost programs and tax mix; guidance absorbs ~$0.20 EPS headwind from the 3SBio IPR&D charge .
  • Margin/cost narrative: Continued execution of cost realignment and manufacturing optimization programs (target ~$7.2B net savings by 2027) supports margin expansion; adjusted gross margin ~76% in Q2 per CFO .
  • Policy watch: Management says FY25 guidance absorbs impacts from tariffs and potential price changes; active dialogue on MFN and tariff policy maintained; COVID revenues skew to H2 (Q3/Q4) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Broad-based growth: Vyndaqel (+21% op), Comirnaty (+95% op), Paxlovid (+71% op), Padcev (+38% op), Eliquis (+6% op), Abrysvo (+155% op), Lorbrena (+48% op) drove topline outperformance .
  • Margin execution: CFO highlighted adjusted gross margin ~76% and 8–9% operational reductions in SI&A and R&D, reflecting productivity initiatives and pipeline focus .
  • Guidance confidence: Raised FY25 Adjusted EPS by $0.10 (to $2.90–$3.10) while absorbing ~$0.20 EPS headwind from the 3SBio licensing charge and reaffirming revenue range; CEO: “another strong quarter of focused execution…” .

What Went Wrong

  • Pricing headwinds: Higher manufacturer discounts under IRA Medicare Part D redesign created an $825M YoY headwind and pressured U.S. net price (e.g., Eliquis) .
  • Cost of sales mix: Reported cost of sales rose to 25.8% of revenue (+90 bps YoY), partly due to non-recurrence of favorable royalty accrual revisions from Q2 2024 .
  • Ibrance softness: Ibrance down 8% operationally on U.S. net price pressure and international generic entry/timing .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$17.76 $13.72 $14.65
Revenue YoY (%)+22% -8% +10%
Reported Diluted EPS ($)$0.07 $0.52 $0.51
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$0.63 $0.92 $0.78
Reported Cost of Sales % of Revenue33.3% 20.7% 25.8%
Adjusted Cost of Sales % of Revenue32.3% 18.9% 23.9%

Segment revenue vs prior year:

Segment ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q2 2025
Primary Care$4,952 $5,540
Specialty Care$4,083 $4,378
Oncology$3,956 $4,387
Pfizer CentreOne (PC1)$278 $328
Pfizer Ignite$15 $20
Total Revenues$13,283 $14,653

Key product KPIs:

Product ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q2 2025YoY Oper.
Vyndaqel family$1,323 $1,615 +21%
Eliquis$1,877 $2,003 +6%
Comirnaty$195 $381 +95%
Paxlovid$251 $427 +71%
Padcev$394 $542 +38%
Abrysvo$56 $143 +155% (+$86M)
Lorbrena$169 $251 +48%
Ibrance$1,130 $1,049 -8%

Versus estimates:

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue Actual ($B)$13.72 $14.65 $16.65*
Revenue Consensus ($B)$14.05*$13.53*$16.50*
EPS Adjusted Actual ($)$0.92 $0.78 $0.87*
EPS Consensus ($)$0.67*$0.57*$0.63*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Drivers of beats/misses:

  • Q2 beat driven by stronger U.S. market share and contractual deliveries in Comirnaty, pricing/GTN benefits and rebate accrual adjustments in Paxlovid, continued Vyndaqel diagnosis uptake, and Padcev share gains (plus a one-time U.S. wholesaler transition) .
  • Headwinds included IRA-driven manufacturer discounts impacting net price (e.g., Eliquis) and higher cost of sales mix vs prior-year quarter .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025$61.0–$64.0B $61.0–$64.0B Maintained
Adjusted SI&AFY 2025$13.3–$14.3B $13.1–$14.1B Lowered
Adjusted R&DFY 2025$10.7–$11.7B $10.4–$11.4B Lowered
Adjusted Tax RateFY 2025~15% ~13% Lowered
Adjusted Diluted EPSFY 2025$2.80–$3.00 $2.90–$3.10 (absorbs ~$0.20 IPR&D for 3SBio) Raised
Share RepurchasesFY 2025None anticipated None anticipated; $3.3B authorization remains Maintained
DividendsFY 2025$4.9B paid in 1H25; commitment reiterated Ongoing

Notes: Guidance absorbs tariff impacts (China, Canada, Mexico) and potential price changes per July 31 letter; includes $1.35B IPR&D charge related to 3SBio in Q3 2025 (~$0.20 EPS) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (Prior-2)Q1 2025 (Prior-1)Q2 2025 (Current)Trend
AI/Tech & ProductivityManufacturing optimization and cost realignment targets toward pre-pandemic margins Expanded SI&A savings via digital enablement/AI; R&D re-org savings identified Ongoing margin expansion programs; adjusted gross margin ~76% Strengthening
Tariffs/MFN/MacroNoted cost programs and 2025 guidance reset; less explicit tariff detail Guidance excluded future tariffs at the time Guidance now absorbs tariffs and potential price changes; active policy dialogue (MFN) Risk contained in outlook
COVID SeasonalityComirnaty down in Q4 2024; COVID volatile Comirnaty up YoY operational; Paxlovid lapped reversal Majority of COVID revenues expected in Q3/Q4; strong Q2 Comirnaty execution H2-weighted
Product PerformanceVyndaqel, Eliquis, Xtandi, Nurtec strong in Q4 2024 Vyndaqel +33% op; Nurtec +40% op; Lorbrena +39% op Broad growth across Vyndaqel, Comirnaty, Paxlovid, Padcev, Eliquis, Abrysvo, Lorbrena Momentum sustained
Regional TrendsU.S. vs International mix shift in Q4 U.S. core execution; International emerging growth International focus: mid-to-high single-digit growth across regions via targeted prioritization Improving
Regulatory/LegalAbrysvo recommendation changes impacted older adult vaccination rates ACIP expanded RSV recommendation for 50–59 high-risk Comirnaty LP.8.1 adapted vaccine authorized in EU; Talzenna label update Active pipeline/regulatory
R&D ExecutionSeagen portfolio integration; multiple readouts Pipeline updates (vepdegestrant, sasanlimab) Oncology ADC programs, SV combinations; Hympavzi Phase 3 positive Accelerating

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We’re pleased with our progress in advancing our R&D pipeline, driving our commercial performance and expanding our margins…” .
  • CFO: “We raised our full-year 2025 Adjusted diluted EPS guidance…delivering strong results for shareholders” .
  • CFO on margins: “Adjusted gross margin…approximately 76%… savings from the manufacturing optimization program by 2027 will help bolster gross margins” .
  • U.S. Commercial: “Comirnaty had a very strong quarter…we anticipate a strong season” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Policy/Price/Tariffs: Company engaged in active discussions with administration; FY25 guidance range absorbs potential impacts; no specific quantification disclosed .
  • COVID Outlook: Large majority of COVID revenues expected in Q3/Q4; modest effect from narrowed recommendations; execution readiness emphasized .
  • Capital Allocation: New gross leverage target ~2.7x; BD capacity ~$13B; emphasis on smaller deals; dividend commitment reiterated .
  • Tax Rate: Adjusted tax rate lowered to ~13% for FY25; long-term expectation nearer 15% .
  • Oncology Strategy: PADCEV share >50% in first-line la/mUC; SV combinations moving rapidly into Ph1/2 and Ph3; multiple near-term readouts .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025: Actual Revenue $14.65B vs consensus $13.53B*; Adjusted EPS $0.78 vs consensus $0.57*.
  • Q1 2025: Actual Revenue $13.72B vs consensus $14.05B* (miss on topline), Adjusted EPS $0.92 vs consensus $0.67* (beat).
  • Q3 2025: Actual Revenue $16.65B* and Adjusted EPS $0.87* both above consensus $16.50B* and $0.63* respectively (context for H2 concentration).
    Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications for models:

  • Raise FY25 EPS and H2 mix assumptions; factor lower SI&A/R&D and tax rate; incorporate IRA GTN headwinds in U.S. brands (Eliquis) and strong oncology/Vyndaqel trajectories .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Earnings quality: Q2 beat driven by core franchises and disciplined OpEx; FY25 EPS guidance raised despite absorbing 3SBio charge .
  • Cost/margin: Execution on ~$7.2B net savings by 2027 and manufacturing optimization should support margin resilience through LOE period .
  • COVID cadence: H2-weighted revenues; monitor fall vaccination dynamics and payer coverage, but execution and contracts are strong .
  • Policy buffer: Guidance now incorporates tariff/MFN scenarios, reducing near-term estimate risk from macro policy .
  • Product drivers: Vyndaqel, PADCEV, Lorbrena, Comirnaty (EU LP.8.1 adaptation), and Abrysvo maternal demand underpin growth; watch IRA-driven net price headwinds (Eliquis) .
  • Capital stance: Gross leverage target ~2.7x, BD capacity ~$13B, no buybacks in 2025, dividend support continues—expect smaller, value-driven BD .
  • Trading lens: Near-term catalysts include oncology readouts (PADCEV MIBC), SV program updates, and fall COVID season; policy headlines a watch item but partly de-risked in outlook .

Notes on non-GAAP metrics: Adjusted EPS/income exclude amortization, acquisition-related items, discontinued ops, and certain significant items; reconciliations provided in press materials .