PI
PFIZER INC (PFE)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025: Revenue $14.65B (+10% YoY operational), Adjusted EPS $0.78, Reported EPS $0.51; raised FY25 Adjusted EPS guidance to $2.90–$3.10 while reaffirming revenue $61–$64B .
- Beat vs Street: Revenue and Adjusted EPS exceeded consensus; revenue $14.65B vs $13.53B*, Adjusted EPS $0.78 vs $0.57*; drivers included Vyndaqel, Comirnaty, Paxlovid, Padcev, and Eliquis .
- Guidance mix-shift: Lower FY25 SI&A and R&D ranges and a lower adjusted tax rate (~13%) reflect cost programs and tax mix; guidance absorbs ~$0.20 EPS headwind from the 3SBio IPR&D charge .
- Margin/cost narrative: Continued execution of cost realignment and manufacturing optimization programs (target ~$7.2B net savings by 2027) supports margin expansion; adjusted gross margin ~76% in Q2 per CFO .
- Policy watch: Management says FY25 guidance absorbs impacts from tariffs and potential price changes; active dialogue on MFN and tariff policy maintained; COVID revenues skew to H2 (Q3/Q4) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Broad-based growth: Vyndaqel (+21% op), Comirnaty (+95% op), Paxlovid (+71% op), Padcev (+38% op), Eliquis (+6% op), Abrysvo (+155% op), Lorbrena (+48% op) drove topline outperformance .
- Margin execution: CFO highlighted adjusted gross margin ~76% and 8–9% operational reductions in SI&A and R&D, reflecting productivity initiatives and pipeline focus .
- Guidance confidence: Raised FY25 Adjusted EPS by $0.10 (to $2.90–$3.10) while absorbing ~$0.20 EPS headwind from the 3SBio licensing charge and reaffirming revenue range; CEO: “another strong quarter of focused execution…” .
What Went Wrong
- Pricing headwinds: Higher manufacturer discounts under IRA Medicare Part D redesign created an $825M YoY headwind and pressured U.S. net price (e.g., Eliquis) .
- Cost of sales mix: Reported cost of sales rose to 25.8% of revenue (+90 bps YoY), partly due to non-recurrence of favorable royalty accrual revisions from Q2 2024 .
- Ibrance softness: Ibrance down 8% operationally on U.S. net price pressure and international generic entry/timing .
Financial Results
Segment revenue vs prior year:
Key product KPIs:
Versus estimates:
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Drivers of beats/misses:
- Q2 beat driven by stronger U.S. market share and contractual deliveries in Comirnaty, pricing/GTN benefits and rebate accrual adjustments in Paxlovid, continued Vyndaqel diagnosis uptake, and Padcev share gains (plus a one-time U.S. wholesaler transition) .
- Headwinds included IRA-driven manufacturer discounts impacting net price (e.g., Eliquis) and higher cost of sales mix vs prior-year quarter .
Guidance Changes
Notes: Guidance absorbs tariff impacts (China, Canada, Mexico) and potential price changes per July 31 letter; includes $1.35B IPR&D charge related to 3SBio in Q3 2025 (~$0.20 EPS) .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “We’re pleased with our progress in advancing our R&D pipeline, driving our commercial performance and expanding our margins…” .
- CFO: “We raised our full-year 2025 Adjusted diluted EPS guidance…delivering strong results for shareholders” .
- CFO on margins: “Adjusted gross margin…approximately 76%… savings from the manufacturing optimization program by 2027 will help bolster gross margins” .
- U.S. Commercial: “Comirnaty had a very strong quarter…we anticipate a strong season” .
Q&A Highlights
- Policy/Price/Tariffs: Company engaged in active discussions with administration; FY25 guidance range absorbs potential impacts; no specific quantification disclosed .
- COVID Outlook: Large majority of COVID revenues expected in Q3/Q4; modest effect from narrowed recommendations; execution readiness emphasized .
- Capital Allocation: New gross leverage target ~2.7x; BD capacity ~$13B; emphasis on smaller deals; dividend commitment reiterated .
- Tax Rate: Adjusted tax rate lowered to ~13% for FY25; long-term expectation nearer 15% .
- Oncology Strategy: PADCEV share >50% in first-line la/mUC; SV combinations moving rapidly into Ph1/2 and Ph3; multiple near-term readouts .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025: Actual Revenue $14.65B vs consensus $13.53B*; Adjusted EPS $0.78 vs consensus $0.57*.
- Q1 2025: Actual Revenue $13.72B vs consensus $14.05B* (miss on topline), Adjusted EPS $0.92 vs consensus $0.67* (beat).
- Q3 2025: Actual Revenue $16.65B* and Adjusted EPS $0.87* both above consensus $16.50B* and $0.63* respectively (context for H2 concentration).
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications for models:
- Raise FY25 EPS and H2 mix assumptions; factor lower SI&A/R&D and tax rate; incorporate IRA GTN headwinds in U.S. brands (Eliquis) and strong oncology/Vyndaqel trajectories .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Earnings quality: Q2 beat driven by core franchises and disciplined OpEx; FY25 EPS guidance raised despite absorbing 3SBio charge .
- Cost/margin: Execution on ~$7.2B net savings by 2027 and manufacturing optimization should support margin resilience through LOE period .
- COVID cadence: H2-weighted revenues; monitor fall vaccination dynamics and payer coverage, but execution and contracts are strong .
- Policy buffer: Guidance now incorporates tariff/MFN scenarios, reducing near-term estimate risk from macro policy .
- Product drivers: Vyndaqel, PADCEV, Lorbrena, Comirnaty (EU LP.8.1 adaptation), and Abrysvo maternal demand underpin growth; watch IRA-driven net price headwinds (Eliquis) .
- Capital stance: Gross leverage target ~2.7x, BD capacity ~$13B, no buybacks in 2025, dividend support continues—expect smaller, value-driven BD .
- Trading lens: Near-term catalysts include oncology readouts (PADCEV MIBC), SV program updates, and fall COVID season; policy headlines a watch item but partly de-risked in outlook .
Notes on non-GAAP metrics: Adjusted EPS/income exclude amortization, acquisition-related items, discontinued ops, and certain significant items; reconciliations provided in press materials .