Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Total Revenue | Q3 2024 (YTD) | 59,500 - 62,500 (millions USD) for FY 2024 | 14,879+ 13,283+ 17,702= 45,864 (millions USD) | Met |
COVID Product Revenues | Q3 2024 (YTD) | 8,500 (millions USD) for FY 2024 | Q1 (2,035Paxlovid + 354Comirnaty) + Q2 (251Paxlovid + 195Comirnaty) + Q3 (2,703Paxlovid + 1,422Comirnaty) = 6,960 (millions USD) | Met |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
COVID-19 product performance | Consistently discussed across Q2, Q1, and Q4. Q2 emphasis on infection waves; Q1 and Q4 reflected declining demand and a shift toward post-pandemic patterns. | PAXLOVID totaled $2.7B (including $442M for U.S. government stockpile), with treatment rates up to 57%. COMIRNATY contributed $1.4B. Demand has stabilized, and Pfizer reiterated confidence in the durability of these products. | Consistent topic, with stable demand patterns |
Non-COVID business growth | Q2 saw 14% growth; Q1 saw 11%; Q4 reached ~7%–8%. Strength consistently driven by refined commercial execution and key product contributions. | Reported 14% YoY operational growth, reaching $13.6B, driven by products like VYNDAQEL, ELIQUIS, XTANDI, and NURTEC. Maintaining 9%–11% growth guidance, despite Oxbryta headwinds. | Consistent growth, sentiment remains bullish |
Oncology pipeline and Seagen | In Q2, Q1, and Q4, Pfizer consistently highlighted Seagen’s ADC technology and new trial initiations. Seagen integration was a top strategic priority. | Oncology revenues grew 31% YoY. Integration of Seagen is progressing well, with focus on ADC platforms. Pfizer is now the 3rd-largest oncology biopharma in the U.S.. | Consistent focus, sentiment remains very positive for long-term growth |
VYNDAQEL | Strong growth in Q2 and Q1, emphasized as standard of care. Limited direct competition was mentioned previously, although new challengers are expected. | Showed 63% operational growth, with unmet medical needs driving new patient starts. Pfizer anticipates headwinds in 2025 from competitive entrants and the IRA but remains optimistic short term. | Consistent mentions, increasing caution on future competition |
Oxbryta | Briefly mentioned in Q1 regarding patient education and designated as a growth area in Q4. No Q2 mention. | Reported headwinds causing a $500M revenue guidance compression. Company continues to evaluate portfolio strategy. | Inconsistent mentions, bearish near-term outlook |
Cost optimization and margin expansion | Common theme in Q2, Q1, and Q4: cost realignment to revert to pre-pandemic operating margins; consistent messaging on multi-year margin expansion. | Undertaking a $4B net cost-savings program by end of 2024. Gross margin at ~70% in Q3, aiming for mid-70s full-year. Manufacturing optimization expected to yield $1.5B in savings by 2027. | Consistent cost discipline, bullish outlook on margin recovery |
Patent expirations | Discussed in Q2 and Q1, particularly for VYNDAQEL and potential IRA impacts. Q4 briefly addressed Merck competition in adult vaccines. | No mention in Q3 2024. | Dropped from Q3 discussion |
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) | Consistent topic across Q2, Q1, and Q4, with Pfizer expressing concerns about forced pricing and future product selections, yet acknowledging some positive volume effects. | Described as negative for innovation, but with some positive features (out-of-pocket caps). Pfizer also highlighted 340B reform as a priority. | Consistent topic, sentiment remains cautious |
Emerging pipeline (danuglipron) | Q2 noted ongoing studies to optimize once-daily formulation; Q1 and Q4 updates were limited, with management waiting on midyear data. | Pfizer highlighted oral GLP-1 obesity candidate targets (10%–20% weight loss) and a multi-asset strategy. Expects competitive advantage if it’s the second oral GLP-1 to market. | Consistent mention, sentiment is optimistic but tempered by trial results |
Dividend commitments | Emphasized in Q2, Q1, and Q4 as a “sacred” priority. No shifts in policy. | Maintained commitment to growing the dividend. Returned $7.1B to shareholders in first nine months of 2024. | Stable topic, consistently bullish on shareholder returns |
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IRA Impact on Business
Q: What's the IRA's impact on next year's business?
A: Pfizer acknowledges that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will have both positive and negative effects on their business in the coming year. They are currently assessing these impacts as they build their budgets and plan to provide detailed guidance by the end of the year. -
Response to Activist Investor
Q: How will you address activist concerns on capital deployment?
A: Albert Bourla stated that while Pfizer disagrees with the activist investor's views on capital deployment, the company has been proactive in implementing changes over the past 10 months. These include reducing OpEx by $4 billion without affecting the top line, planning to reduce manufacturing costs by $1.5 billion, changing the commercial model to separate U.S. and international businesses, retaining key talent from acquisitions like Seagen, and enhancing the Board with two new directors. Pfizer believes these actions will create long-term shareholder value. -
2025 Sales and EPS Guidance
Q: When will you provide 2025 sales and EPS guidance?
A: Pfizer is currently developing its 2025 financial plan, considering various pushes and pulls affecting growth in both the core and COVID businesses. They expect to provide guidance for 2025 by the end of this year, including details on the factors influencing their outlook. -
Margin Outlook
Q: Are mid-to-high 30% operating margins still achievable?
A: David Denton affirmed that mid-to-high 30% adjusted operating margins are within Pfizer's business model, and the company is focused on progressing towards that goal. While no specific timeline was provided, Pfizer expects to make continued progress and will offer more details when they provide guidance for next year. -
Long-Term COVID Sales Visibility
Q: What are your expectations for long-term COVID product sales?
A: Pfizer views its COVID products as a normal, enduring business with stable utilization patterns. For PAXLOVID, they treated 4.9 million patients in the U.S. year-to-date, compared to 5.2 million in the same period last year, indicating consistent demand. Treatment rates have improved from 50% last year to 57% this year. Similar stable trends are observed for the COVID vaccine. Pfizer considers the COVID business stable and plans to stop separating it from the rest of the business. -
Obesity Pipeline Efficacy Goals
Q: What efficacy benchmarks define success for obesity drugs?
A: Mikael Dolsten explained that for oral obesity medications, Pfizer aims for 10% to 20% weight loss, with single agents achieving results at the lower end and combination therapies potentially exceeding 15%. This efficacy is comparable to injectable GLP-1 therapies, and Pfizer sees advantages in oral medications that can be combined with other metabolic drugs for long-term outcomes. -
Seagen Integration Progress
Q: How is the Seagen integration progressing and any updates on metrics?
A: Pfizer is pleased with the Seagen integration, having retained the vast majority of Seagen's employees, totaling over 1,500 colleagues. Commercially, Seagen's products delivered $854 million in Q3 global revenue, with PADCEV contributing over $400 million. Year-to-date, Seagen achieved $2.3 billion in revenue, representing 38% year-over-year growth on a pro forma basis. Pfizer is also advancing the pipeline, initiating Phase III studies with key assets like dasitimab vedotin and preparing to start additional pivotal trials next year. -
Further Cost Reductions
Q: Are there opportunities for further SG&A and R&D cost cuts?
A: Albert Bourla acknowledged that Pfizer has already made significant reductions in SG&A and R&D expenses without negatively impacting the pipeline or business operations. He sees further opportunities to eliminate less ROI-driven investments in both R&D and SG&A, aiming to control costs and absorb inflation. Pfizer plans to maintain a constant focus on cost efficiency moving forward. -
RSV Vaccine Revaccination Frequency
Q: What's the expected revaccination frequency for the RSV vaccine?
A: Pfizer is gathering data on the durability of their RSV vaccine, ABRYSVO. They have observed that immunity remains robust after 1 and even 2 years for most patients, indicating high vaccine quality. However, antibody levels gradually decline, and a meaningful boost in protection can be achieved with revaccination. Pfizer believes that revaccination may be advisable around every 3 years to maintain optimal protection for a substantial fraction of patients. -
VYNDAMAX Growth Prospects
Q: Will VYNDAMAX continue to generate healthy growth amidst competition and Part D changes?
A: Pfizer reported strong growth for VYNDAMAX, with international sales increasing 31% this quarter and total patients increasing 14% quarter-over-quarter. While they see continued opportunities through increased diagnosis, prescriber education, and affordability initiatives, they anticipate volume growth to be at significantly lower levels moving forward. Headwinds include new competitive entrants impacting new patient starts and potential switching of existing patients, as well as changes in the market landscape due to Part D redesign. -
Asset Sales and Deleveraging Plans
Q: Will you sell assets to accelerate deleveraging?
A: David Denton stated that Pfizer aims to delever as rapidly as possible, having reduced debt by $4.4 billion year-to-date. While not commenting on specific asset sales, he mentioned that Pfizer continually evaluates its infrastructure and assets to identify opportunities for monetization that support deleveraging efforts. All options are on the table, and decisions will be made based on strategic long-term considerations. -
Pneumococcal Vaccine Advancements
Q: How can your pneumococcal vaccine compete with rivals covering more serotypes?
A: Mikael Dolsten explained that Pfizer's 25-valent pneumococcal vaccine, the fourth generation, aims to be the first to hit the pediatric market, which represents the bulk of doses. The vaccine includes a unique improvement of serotype 3 coverage, which is significantly more important than adding numerous less common serotypes. Pfizer is also developing a fifth-generation vaccine with over 30 serotypes, including further improvements on serotype 3 and expanding coverage beyond current competitors. -
Pipeline Progress Amid Cost Cuts
Q: How will you advance the pipeline while cutting costs?
A: Pfizer emphasized that despite cost reductions, pipeline advancement remains strong. In oncology alone, they started 8 new first-in-patient studies this year, making them a leading company in Phase I clinical trial initiations. Over the next 18 months, Pfizer anticipates up to 40 opportunities, including potential approvals, pivotal readouts, and proof-of-concept studies across oncology and non-oncology areas. They are balancing cost efficiency with focused investment in high-potential opportunities to ensure pipeline progress continues unabated. -
Obesity Drug Market Strategy
Q: Is being second to market or differentiation more important in obesity drugs?
A: Albert Bourla noted that while being the second oral obesity treatment to market is advantageous, the obesity market is vast with significant need for oral solutions. Mikael Dolsten added that Pfizer is advancing multiple assets, including danuglipron in a once-daily modified release form, which could offer special features. They are also developing an oral GIPR antagonist, aiming for better tolerability and more efficacy. Pfizer focuses on both timely market entry and differentiation through exploring various scientific opportunities in obesity treatments. -
CDK4 Inhibitor Phase III Plans
Q: What's the design for the CDK4 inhibitor Phase III study?
A: Pfizer's highly selective CDK4 inhibitor, atormocyclib, is currently in a Phase III program for second-line hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. Chris Boshoff stated that they have aligned with the FDA on a first-line study, which will start in the coming months. The study will be against physicians' choice of CDK4/6 inhibitors, including IBRANCE. Pfizer believes that the selectivity for CDK4 over CDK6 may offer advantages in safety and efficacy, and they are focusing on more complete and continuous dosing regimens.