PI
PFIZER INC (PFE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 results were solid: revenue $16.65B (down 6% YoY; up 14% QoQ) and adjusted diluted EPS $0.87; management raised and narrowed FY25 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.00–$3.15 (from $2.90–$3.10), while reaffirming FY25 revenue guidance of $61–$64B .
- Non‑COVID portfolio grew 4% operationally; declines in Paxlovid (−55%) and Comirnaty (−20%) were the key headwinds; Vyndaqel (+7%), Eliquis (+22%), and Nurtec (+22%) were notable positives .
- Adjusted gross margin remained strong (~76%) on favorable mix and cost discipline; adjusted cost of sales was 23.9% of revenue; adjusted tax rate improved to ~7.9% in Q3 (from 10.8% in Q3’24) .
- Strategic catalysts: a landmark voluntary agreement with the U.S. Government (pricing clarity and 3‑year tariff grace period), and FTC early termination for the proposed Metsera obesity acquisition; Pfizer filed litigation to counter Novo Nordisk’s competing proposal; dividend of $0.43 for Q4 declared .
- Stock reaction drivers: EPS beat vs consensus, guidance raise, margin strength, and obesity pipeline optionality (Metsera) offsetting COVID declines; management flagged tariff/MFN discussions as ongoing while de‑risking COVID assumptions in guidance .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Raised FY25 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.00–$3.15 and improved adjusted tax outlook (to ~11% for FY25), citing stronger YTD performance and cost initiatives .
- Non‑COVID revenue growth (+4% operationally) driven by Eliquis (+22% op), Vyndaqel family (+7% op), and Nurtec (+22% op); Prevnar showed strong international momentum (+17% op) .
- Margin execution: adjusted gross margin ~76% and lower adjusted operating expenses ex 3SBio; adjusted SG&A and R&D each down ~3% operationally in Q3; cost programs tracking toward ~$7.7B cumulative savings by 2027 .
Management quotes:
- “Our third-quarter performance demonstrates our continued focus on execution and financial discipline. We raised and narrowed our full-year 2025 Adjusted diluted EPS guidance…” — CFO Dave Denton .
- “I am proud of Pfizer’s leadership as the first in our industry to reach an agreement with the U.S. Government… provides greater clarity for our business.” — CEO Albert Bourla .
What Went Wrong
- COVID portfolio declines: Paxlovid −55% operationally (lower infections; non‑recurrence of a $442M US stockpile benefit in Q3’24), Comirnaty −20% op (narrower U.S. vaccination recommendation; delayed variant vaccine approval) .
- Reported net income and EPS fell YoY (Q3’25 reported EPS $0.62 vs $0.78 in Q3’24), with higher intangible impairments and legal charges in Other (income)/deductions .
- U.S. IRA Part D redesign and 340B headwinds weighed on net price in several franchises (e.g., Eliquis, Vyndaqel); management flagged ongoing GTN pressure in U.S. Vyndamax despite strong TRx volume .
Financial Results
Q3 2025 vs Wall Street estimates (S&P Global):
Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment and key product breakdown (Worldwide, $USD Millions):
Regional revenue split (Worldwide):
KPIs and cost items (Reported and Adjusted, Q3 2025):
Guidance Changes
Notes:
- Guidance incorporates a one‑time $1.35B acquired IPR&D charge (3SBio) with ~($0.20) EPS impact; tariffs from China/Canada/Mexico absorbed in guidance .
- Diluted W/A shares ~5.71B assumed; no 2025 share repurchases planned .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Reaffirms full-year 2025 Revenue guidance of $61.0 to $64.0 billion” and “Raises and narrows Adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $3.00 to $3.15.” — Press Release .
- “Adjusted gross margin for the third quarter was approximately 76%… over the past two years, adjusted gross margins have generally remained in the mid to upper 70s.” — CFO Dave Denton .
- “Non‑COVID products continue to perform very well operationally… we are raising and narrowing our full year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance… substantially de‑risked the current lower‑than‑anticipated COVID trends.” — CFO Dave Denton .
- “We believe Pfizer will have distinct advantages… as we reinvigorate Pfizer’s cardiometabolic presence.” — CEO Albert Bourla on Metsera .
Q&A Highlights
- Vyndamax dynamics: strong TRx demand and first‑line share; U.S. net sales pressured by IRA rebates and payer contracting; minimal switching from Amvuttra so far .
- Padcev uptake: strong la/mUC share; Q2 one-time wholesaler transition inflated prior base; muscle‑invasive bladder cancer readouts expected to expand addressable patients (~22K) .
- MFN/tariffs: active discussions; guidance de‑risked COVID; company prepared to absorb near‑term impacts and focus on execution .
- BD capacity: ~$13B post‑3SBio; focus on smaller deals across Oncology, Vaccines, Internal Medicine (including obesity) and I&I; leverage lowering to 2.7x target .
- COVID season outlook: planning for older/at‑risk indications; stable payer coverage; strong supply/distribution and activation plans .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025 actual revenue of $16.65B beat consensus of $16.50B*; adjusted/primary EPS of $0.87 beat consensus of $0.633* .
- Management de‑risked COVID assumptions while raising FY25 EPS guidance; implies potential upward estimate revisions on margins and tax rate .
Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- EPS beat and FY25 guidance raise with improved tax and cost outlook underpin near‑term EPS momentum despite COVID declines .
- Non‑COVID growth breadth (Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Nurtec, Oncology) and strong international performance (Prevnar) de‑risk topline volatility .
- Margin durability (gross margin
76%) plus cost programs ($7.7B savings by 2027) support medium‑term operating leverage through LOEs . - Obesity optionality via Metsera (FTC early termination) positions Pfizer for cardiometabolic re‑entry; ongoing litigation indicates commitment to secure the asset .
- Policy clarity improving with U.S. agreement (pricing parity, tariff grace period), but MFN/tariffs remain watch items; guidance incorporates de‑risking .
- COVID portfolio likely remains seasonal/endemic; execution and mix management key to meeting de‑risked outlook .
- Shareholder returns remain a priority (Q4 dividend $0.43 declared); deleveraging continues with BD capacity prudently deployed .