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PFIZER INC (PFE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 results were solid: revenue $16.65B (down 6% YoY; up 14% QoQ) and adjusted diluted EPS $0.87; management raised and narrowed FY25 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.00–$3.15 (from $2.90–$3.10), while reaffirming FY25 revenue guidance of $61–$64B .
  • Non‑COVID portfolio grew 4% operationally; declines in Paxlovid (−55%) and Comirnaty (−20%) were the key headwinds; Vyndaqel (+7%), Eliquis (+22%), and Nurtec (+22%) were notable positives .
  • Adjusted gross margin remained strong (~76%) on favorable mix and cost discipline; adjusted cost of sales was 23.9% of revenue; adjusted tax rate improved to ~7.9% in Q3 (from 10.8% in Q3’24) .
  • Strategic catalysts: a landmark voluntary agreement with the U.S. Government (pricing clarity and 3‑year tariff grace period), and FTC early termination for the proposed Metsera obesity acquisition; Pfizer filed litigation to counter Novo Nordisk’s competing proposal; dividend of $0.43 for Q4 declared .
  • Stock reaction drivers: EPS beat vs consensus, guidance raise, margin strength, and obesity pipeline optionality (Metsera) offsetting COVID declines; management flagged tariff/MFN discussions as ongoing while de‑risking COVID assumptions in guidance .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Raised FY25 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.00–$3.15 and improved adjusted tax outlook (to ~11% for FY25), citing stronger YTD performance and cost initiatives .
  • Non‑COVID revenue growth (+4% operationally) driven by Eliquis (+22% op), Vyndaqel family (+7% op), and Nurtec (+22% op); Prevnar showed strong international momentum (+17% op) .
  • Margin execution: adjusted gross margin ~76% and lower adjusted operating expenses ex 3SBio; adjusted SG&A and R&D each down ~3% operationally in Q3; cost programs tracking toward ~$7.7B cumulative savings by 2027 .

Management quotes:

  • “Our third-quarter performance demonstrates our continued focus on execution and financial discipline. We raised and narrowed our full-year 2025 Adjusted diluted EPS guidance…” — CFO Dave Denton .
  • “I am proud of Pfizer’s leadership as the first in our industry to reach an agreement with the U.S. Government… provides greater clarity for our business.” — CEO Albert Bourla .

What Went Wrong

  • COVID portfolio declines: Paxlovid −55% operationally (lower infections; non‑recurrence of a $442M US stockpile benefit in Q3’24), Comirnaty −20% op (narrower U.S. vaccination recommendation; delayed variant vaccine approval) .
  • Reported net income and EPS fell YoY (Q3’25 reported EPS $0.62 vs $0.78 in Q3’24), with higher intangible impairments and legal charges in Other (income)/deductions .
  • U.S. IRA Part D redesign and 340B headwinds weighed on net price in several franchises (e.g., Eliquis, Vyndaqel); management flagged ongoing GTN pressure in U.S. Vyndamax despite strong TRx volume .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$17.702 $14.653 $16.654
Reported Diluted EPS ($)$0.78 $0.51 $0.62
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$1.06 $0.78 $0.87
Adjusted Cost of Sales (% of Revenue)27.5% 23.9% 23.9%
Adjusted Effective Tax Rate (%)10.8% 13.2% 7.9%

Q3 2025 vs Wall Street estimates (S&P Global):

MetricConsensus (Q3 2025)Actual (Q3 2025)Beat/Miss
Revenue ($USD Billions)$16.50*$16.65 Beat
Primary EPS ($)$0.633*$0.87 Beat

Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment and key product breakdown (Worldwide, $USD Millions):

Segment/ProductQ3 2024Q3 2025YoY Change
Primary Care$9,060 $7,646 −16% (Total)
Eliquis$1,617 $2,015 +25% (Total; +22% op)
Prevnar family$1,803 $1,742 −3% (Total)
Paxlovid$2,703 $1,225 −55% (Op)
Comirnaty$1,422 $1,151 −19% (Total; −20% op)
Nurtec ODT/Vydura$337 $412 +22% (Total; +22% op)
Specialty Care$4,289 $4,411 +3% (Total)
Vyndaqel family$1,447 $1,591 +10% (Total; +7% op)
Oncology$4,043 $4,253 +5% (Total)
Padcev$409 $464 +13% (Total; +13% op)
Lorbrena$206 $268 +30% (Total; +28% op)
Pfizer CentreOne$285 $344 +21% (Total)

Regional revenue split (Worldwide):

RegionQ3 2024Q3 2025YoY Change
United States$12,064 $10,691 −11%
Total International$5,638 $5,963 +6%

KPIs and cost items (Reported and Adjusted, Q3 2025):

KPIQ3 2024Q3 2025Notes
Reported Cost of Sales ($MM)$5,263 $4,172 −21% YoY
Adjusted Cost of Sales ($MM)$4,874 $3,979 −18% YoY
Reported SG&A ($MM)$3,244 $3,186 −2% YoY
Adjusted SG&A ($MM)$3,219 $3,158 −2% YoY
Reported R&D ($MM)$2,598 $2,546 −2% YoY
Adjusted R&D ($MM)$2,561 $2,486 −3% YoY
Acquired IPR&D ($MM) (Reported)$13 $1,390 3SBio charge
Other (income)/deductions — net ($MM) (Reported)$243 $517 Higher legal/impairments

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025$61.0–$64.0B $61.0–$64.0B Maintained
Adjusted Diluted EPSFY 2025$2.90–$3.10 $3.00–$3.15 Raised/Narrowed
Adjusted SI&AFY 2025$13.1–$14.1B $13.1–$14.1B Maintained
Adjusted R&DFY 2025$10.4–$11.4B $10.0–$11.0B Lowered
Adjusted Effective Tax RateFY 2025~13.0% ~11.0% Lowered

Notes:

  • Guidance incorporates a one‑time $1.35B acquired IPR&D charge (3SBio) with ~($0.20) EPS impact; tariffs from China/Canada/Mexico absorbed in guidance .
  • Diluted W/A shares ~5.71B assumed; no 2025 share repurchases planned .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
AI/Technology & Cost ProgramsExpanded realignment programs; $7.7B cumulative savings by 2027; leveraging AI to boost productivity Continued margin expansion focus; adjusted gross margin ~76%; SG&A/R&D down; reiteration of savings trajectory Improving execution
Tariffs/MFN/PolicyEngaging on Section 232 investigation; de‑risked guidance; absorbing some tariffs (~$150M FY) Landmark U.S. Government agreement (pricing clarity; 3‑year tariff grace period); ongoing MFN/tariff discussions; de‑risked COVID in EPS guidance Clarity improving, risk managed
COVID PortfolioQ1: Paxlovid down; Comirnaty up YoY on mix; outlook seasonal; derisking H2 Q3: Paxlovid −55% op; Comirnaty −20% op; narrower U.S. recommendation; execution strong in inventory/market share Structural decline; managed seasonality
Product Performance (Non‑COVID)Vyndaqel, Padcev, Lorbrena, Eliquis strength; Prevnar international growth Vyndaqel +7% op; Eliquis +22% op; Nurtec +22% op; Prevnar intl +17% op; Oncology momentum (Padcev, Lorbrena) Robust, diversified
Regulatory/LegalPositive data: EMBARK (Xtandi), PHAROS (Braftovi/Mektovi); EU/Japan Hympavzi approvals; 3SBio licensing Litigation vs Novo/Metsera; FTC early termination for Metsera deal; RS data & IDWeek showcase Active legal/BD front
R&D ExecutionAccelerating ADC programs; C. diff vaccine and PCV next-gen plans; obesity search after danuglipron stop Padcev EV‑303/304; PD‑L1V & SV ADC programs; PCV25 path; pipeline cadence re‑affirmed Multiple late‑stage catalysts

Management Commentary

  • “Reaffirms full-year 2025 Revenue guidance of $61.0 to $64.0 billion” and “Raises and narrows Adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $3.00 to $3.15.” — Press Release .
  • “Adjusted gross margin for the third quarter was approximately 76%… over the past two years, adjusted gross margins have generally remained in the mid to upper 70s.” — CFO Dave Denton .
  • “Non‑COVID products continue to perform very well operationally… we are raising and narrowing our full year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance… substantially de‑risked the current lower‑than‑anticipated COVID trends.” — CFO Dave Denton .
  • “We believe Pfizer will have distinct advantages… as we reinvigorate Pfizer’s cardiometabolic presence.” — CEO Albert Bourla on Metsera .

Q&A Highlights

  • Vyndamax dynamics: strong TRx demand and first‑line share; U.S. net sales pressured by IRA rebates and payer contracting; minimal switching from Amvuttra so far .
  • Padcev uptake: strong la/mUC share; Q2 one-time wholesaler transition inflated prior base; muscle‑invasive bladder cancer readouts expected to expand addressable patients (~22K) .
  • MFN/tariffs: active discussions; guidance de‑risked COVID; company prepared to absorb near‑term impacts and focus on execution .
  • BD capacity: ~$13B post‑3SBio; focus on smaller deals across Oncology, Vaccines, Internal Medicine (including obesity) and I&I; leverage lowering to 2.7x target .
  • COVID season outlook: planning for older/at‑risk indications; stable payer coverage; strong supply/distribution and activation plans .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 actual revenue of $16.65B beat consensus of $16.50B*; adjusted/primary EPS of $0.87 beat consensus of $0.633* .
  • Management de‑risked COVID assumptions while raising FY25 EPS guidance; implies potential upward estimate revisions on margins and tax rate .

Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • EPS beat and FY25 guidance raise with improved tax and cost outlook underpin near‑term EPS momentum despite COVID declines .
  • Non‑COVID growth breadth (Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Nurtec, Oncology) and strong international performance (Prevnar) de‑risk topline volatility .
  • Margin durability (gross margin 76%) plus cost programs ($7.7B savings by 2027) support medium‑term operating leverage through LOEs .
  • Obesity optionality via Metsera (FTC early termination) positions Pfizer for cardiometabolic re‑entry; ongoing litigation indicates commitment to secure the asset .
  • Policy clarity improving with U.S. agreement (pricing parity, tariff grace period), but MFN/tariffs remain watch items; guidance incorporates de‑risking .
  • COVID portfolio likely remains seasonal/endemic; execution and mix management key to meeting de‑risked outlook .
  • Shareholder returns remain a priority (Q4 dividend $0.43 declared); deleveraging continues with BD capacity prudently deployed .