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    PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025
    Pre-Earnings Price$210.91Last close (Aug 5, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$215.88Last close (Aug 7, 2024)
    Price Change
    $4.97(+2.36%)
    • Progressive added 2 million new auto policies year-to-date, setting a record for policy growth and demonstrating strong customer acquisition.
    • The company is achieving a cost per sale significantly below targeted acquisition cost, indicating high efficiency in customer acquisition and potential for enhanced profitability.
    • Increased media spending reflects confidence in competitive rates and is expected to drive further policy-in-force growth and market share gains throughout 2024 and beyond.
    • Potential pressure on cost per sale due to increased competition, as peers improve their margins, which may impact Progressive's efficiency.
    • Nonrenewal of 115,000 unprofitable policies in Florida, indicating challenges in the property insurance market and the need to de-risk the portfolio.
    • Uncertainty in achieving future combined ratio targets, with difficulty predicting future profitability due to multiple inputs, despite aggressive growth in policy counts.
    1. Combined Ratio Outlook
      Q: Will policy growth lower combined ratio, offering more flexibility?
      A: Susan Griffith agreed that with 2 million additional auto policies and 2.6 million additional policies overall , the combined ratio could be affected, but there are many inputs involved. While she couldn't signal what the future combined ratio will be, Progressive plans to spend more on media if they can grow policies efficiently, aiming for a calendar year and lifetime combined ratio of 96.

    2. Investment Income and Competition
      Q: Does lower investment income from competitors benefit Progressive?
      A: Susan Griffith stated that Progressive separates operations from capital management. Their net investment income has improved due to bonds maturing and reinvesting at higher yields. However, their focus remains on growing as fast as possible at a 96 combined ratio , regardless of competitors' reliance on investment income.

    3. Ad Spend and PIF Growth
      Q: Will increased ad spend accelerate PIF gains in H2?
      A: Susan Griffith expressed hope that the ramped-up ad spend would continue to drive policy gains, stating, "if there's ever a signal of our confidence in our rates, it's based on what we're spending on our media". They intend to leverage their competitive position to grow units throughout 2024 and beyond.

    4. Competitors Returning to Advertising
      Q: How do you view current advertising opportunities?
      A: Susan Griffith noted they still see a lot of ambient shopping and that some competitors are gaining rate, leading to continued shopping. Progressive feels confident about their efficiency and their ability to spend effectively on media to capture growth.

    5. Direct-to-Consumer Channel Growth
      Q: How will DTC channel evolve amid changing consumer behaviors?
      A: Susan Griffith believes that buying online makes sense for the younger generation and that it's hard to enter the DTC market. She feels proud that Progressive can compete effectively in both direct and agency channels , emphasizing the importance of providing the right choices for consumers.

    6. Renters Insurance Growth
      Q: What's driving growth in renters insurance, and auto cross-selling?
      A: Susan Griffith mentioned that renters insurance is often required and that Progressive has an easy quote flow. They like to bundle auto and renters insurance , and renters can often turn into homeowners, offering long-term opportunities.

    7. Staffing and Advertising Impact
      Q: How do staffing challenges affect advertising and growth?
      A: Susan Griffith said that while it rarely happens, they monitor staffing closely to ensure they can grow without compromising customer service. They have strategies like shifting work to different states and hiring ahead of need.

    8. Multilingual Advertising Strategies
      Q: How are you targeting multilingual populations in advertising?
      A: Susan Griffith acknowledged the importance of the Hispanic community and mentioned that they've been working on multilingual strategies. They had a setback due to litigation in Colorado but are continuing to develop their approach.

    9. Online Homeowners Insurance Potential
      Q: When will homeowners insurance be widely bought online?
      A: Susan Griffith stated that they are investing in direct homeowners insurance sales, with about 25% of their business coming from the direct side. They will continue to expand, believing that people want to buy online.

    10. Homeowners Pricing and Market Share
      Q: Is the industry overpricing homeowners insurance, creating an opportunity?
      A: Susan Griffith explained that they've taken significant rate increases—about 17% on a trailing 12 months —and are focusing on derisking their book. They plan to improve segmentation and be more aggressive in pricing to take more market share when appropriate.

    11. Cost per Sale and Competition
      Q: Expecting increased competition on cost per sale?
      A: Susan Griffith acknowledged they might feel some pressure on cost per sale but noted it's so much below their targeted acquisition cost (TAC) that they feel good about efficiency.

    Research analysts covering PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/.