Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- The settlement with NXP provides a significant cash influx, including a one-time $45 million payment and an annual licensing fee starting at $15 million, enhancing cash reserves, adding high-margin licensing revenue, reducing litigation expenses, and improving profitability and free cash flow.
- The ramp of the M800 chip is expected to improve gross margins by approximately 300 basis points due to its lower cost basis, with volumes anticipated to double in the second quarter and continue increasing, positively impacting financial performance.
- Accelerating growth opportunities in the food sector present potential for meaningful increases in endpoint IC volumes, as several food chains are adopting RAIN RFID technology for inventory management, shelf life, and freshness tracking faster than anticipated.
- M800 Volume Ramp is Slower Than Expected, Delaying Gross Margin Improvements: The company's M800 endpoint IC is expected to bring approximately 300 basis points of gross margin accretion as it becomes a volume runner. However, the ramp is taking multiple years, with volumes still small and the impact on gross margin not visible at this point. This delay could prolong the period during which gross margins remain below target levels.
- Gross Margins Below Target Due to Unfavorable Product Mix and Slow Systems Recovery: Gross margins are currently running below the targeted 53% to 54% range, partly because the systems business recovery typically lags the endpoint IC recovery. Endpoint IC revenue, which carries a slightly lower gross margin than the corporate average, has grown as a percentage of total revenue. Additionally, lower-margin 200-millimeter volume-running SKUs, which are two generations old, are higher as a percent of revenue in Q2 and likely in Q3. The continued sale of older, lower-margin products could keep gross margins below target levels.
- Uncertain Recovery in Retail Apparel Market May Affect Revenue Growth: While there is restocking in retail apparel, footwear, and general merchandise, partners only signal "cautious optimism" for the second half of the year. There is uncertainty about whether the uptick in demand will be sustained. If the recovery in the retail apparel market does not persist, it could negatively impact the company's revenue growth.
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NXP Settlement and Licensing Opportunities
Q: What's the industry's feedback post-settlement with NXP, and are there more licensing opportunities?
A: There are additional licensing opportunities on our IP front and cloud services, which can generate recurring revenue. Licensing is core to our strategy. The industry was relieved by our settlement with NXP, as it removes uncertainty and potential impediments, helping the industry move forward. -
Gross Margin Outlook
Q: How should we think about gross margin trends with M800 ramping and systems mix?
A: Next quarter's gross margins will increase due to the license revenue. Excluding that, product-level gross margins are modeled flat quarter-over-quarter. Currently, we're below our targeted 53%-54% range due to being slightly below scale and the systems business recovery lagging endpoint ICs. Lower-margin 200mm SKUs are higher as a percent of revenue in Q2 and likely Q3, but as M800 ramps, we'll see benefits. Overall, we remain confident in our gross margin targets. -
M800 Ramp and Gross Margin Impact
Q: Has your thinking on M800's impact on gross margins changed as it scales?
A: M800 benefits from a lower cost basis, translating into approximately 300 basis points of gross margin accretion as it ramps. An endpoint IC ramp takes multiple years to reach volume status. M800 is ramping into Q2, but volumes are still small, so the impact on gross margin isn't visible yet. It's too early to project precise timing, but we're encouraged and will keep you updated. -
OpEx and License Payment Guidance
Q: What should be the expected OpEx going forward, and how should we model next year's license payment?
A: Our Q2 OpEx is clean, with immaterial litigation spend, and the business is normalizing after Q1 reorganization. For the second half, assume modest growth as we continue investing. Regarding the expected license payment next year, while NXP has the ability to design out, it's not easily done. We don't expect a huge increase in the payment, but it's fair to model it at this point, and we'll keep you updated. -
M&A and Growth Opportunities
Q: Are you looking at M&A to accelerate growth in newer markets?
A: While we can't discuss specific opportunities, we're always open to areas that strengthen our platform. The Viant acquisition was a natural addition, aligning well with our platform. Additional cash doesn't significantly change our approach; it's about identifying opportunities that make sense. If we see a beneficial opportunity, we'll pursue it. -
Retail Apparel Market Recovery
Q: Is the retail apparel market normalized, or are we still recovering inventory?
A: We are seeing restocking in apparel, footwear, and general merchandise to match an uptick in consumer demand. Whether this trend continues is too early to call. Partners signal strength into Q2 and cautious optimism for the second half but await confirmation of demand sustainability. We see multiple drivers, including embedded tagging and our solutions efforts, which are contributing to our results. -
Large North American Retailer Adoption
Q: How is the implementation with the large North American retailer going, and what are its industry implications?
A: Tagging partners report steady gains in tagging more general merchandise categories and a modest uptick in overall consumer demand. Some categories progress faster than others, but we're optimistic about continued progress this year. Historically, this customer leads the industry, and others follow their moves; despite past setbacks from 2013-2019, we expect their actions to set benchmarks for others. -
Logistics Customer Ramp
Q: Will the second logistics customer grow with you steadily this year, and when will you reach full penetration?
A: It's difficult to predict consistent quarterly growth due to initial challenges. However, we see strong commitment from the customer to digitize their entire operations and fundamentally change their business. We have multiple opportunities with this customer, and their adoption could influence others in the logistics industry. -
Food Applications Growth
Q: How should we think about food applications moving faster than expected?
A: Though I previously thought the food opportunity would move slowly due to its size, it's advancing quicker than expected. The successful adoption of RAIN technology in retail has proven the case and is paving the way in food. We're excited about the current opportunities and will share more insights as we learn. -
Digital Product Passport and Mobile Integration
Q: Tell us more about Digital Product Passport in textiles, applications, economics, and potential size.
A: Regulations requiring textile traceability from manufacturing to recycling begin in 2027. DPP aims to give consumers information on item sustainability, enabling informed choices. We believe DPP will drive significant consumer engagement opportunities. Our goal is to make existing tags on apparel the data carrier for DPP, but we need consumers to be able to read them, necessitating readers in mobile phones. I'm hopeful that increased pressure will lead to RAIN reading in phones, opening new opportunities beyond DPP. -
DPP Implementation Milestones
Q: What are the DPP milestones ahead, and has the focus shifted from batteries to textiles?
A: Batteries are going first with DPP, using QR codes as the data carrier. Textiles are next, a much bigger category, but the data carrier hasn't been decided yet—it could be multiple options including RFID. Committees are working to determine this. RAIN RFID has benefits like visibility and is already on apparel items, but not integrated into mobile phones yet. Large enterprises in Europe are pushing for RAIN readers in phones. Over the next 1-2 years, we'll see if RAIN is classified as a data carrier for DPP. -
Mobile Integration and Licensing Payments
Q: Will you sell ICs into mobiles for DPP, and are future license payments volume-dependent?
A: Regarding licensing, the payments are a fixed amount increasing modestly each year. On mobile ICs, it's too early to say if there's an opportunity for our silicon in phones. Regardless, we're focusing on leveraging our platform and have enterprise-level engagements. We'll aim to get our silicon in phones, but even if not, we'll work with retailers, phone providers, and manufacturers to be part of the overall solution. -
Logistics Customer Stage 2 Deployment
Q: What is the significance of the logistics customer deploying RFID readers in vehicles?
A: While we prefer customers to discuss their own deployments , we see platform opportunities with this customer and multiple silicon touchpoints.
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