Packaging Corporation of America - Q3 2023
October 24, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Packaging Corporation of America's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. Your host today will be Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of PCA. Upon conclusion of his narrative, there will be a question-and-answer session. Please note that this call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Mr. Kowlzan. Please proceed when you are ready.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, Jamie. Good morning, and thank you all for participating in Packaging Corporation of America's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. I'm Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO of PCA, and with me on the call today is Tom Hassfurther, Executive Vice President, who runs our packaging business, and Bob Mundy, our Chief Financial Officer. As usual, I'll begin the call with an overview of the third quarter results, and then I'll turn the call over to Tom and Bob, who will provide further details. And then I'll wrap things up, and then we'd be glad to take questions. Yesterday, we reported third quarter net income of $183 million or $2.03 per share.
Excluding special items, third quarter 2023 net income was $185 million or $2.05 per share, compared to the third quarter of 2022's net income of $266 million or $2.83 per share. Third quarter net sales were $1.9 billion in 2023 and $2.1 billion in 2022. Total company EBITDA for the third quarter, excluding special items, was $388 million in 2023 and $477 million in 2022. Third quarter net income included special items expenses of $0.02 per share, primarily for certain costs at the Jackson, Alabama mill for paper to containerboard conversion-related activities.
Details of all special items for the third quarter of 2023, as well as 2022, were included in the schedules that accompanied our earnings press release. Excluding the special items, the $0.78 per share decrease in third quarter 2023 earnings compared to the third quarter of 2022 was driven primarily by lower price and mix of $1.33, and volume $0.09 in the packaging segments. Higher depreciation expense, $0.11, lower volume in the paper segment, $0.04, higher tax, $0.02, and other expenses, $0.02. These items were partially offset by lower operating costs of $0.58, primarily resulting from lower recycled fiber and energy prices, along with outstanding mill and plant operational execution.
Other favorable items included a lower share count resulting from share repurchases in the second half of 2022 for $0.11, higher prices and mix in the paper segment, $0.04, lower converting costs, $0.04, lower scheduled maintenance outage expenses of $0.04, and lower freight and logistics expenses, $0.02. The results were $0.17 above our third quarter guidance of $1.88 per share, primarily due to higher volume in the packaging and paper segments and lower operating and converting costs.
Looking at our packaging segment, EBITDA, excluding special items in the third quarter of 2023 of $374 million, with sales of $1.8 billion, resulted in a margin of 21.3% versus last year's EBITDA of $467 million, with sales of $1.9 billion and a 24.1% margin. The operational benefits of our capital spending program and the continued great focus and execution of our mills and corrugated products facilities on numerous process improvement initiatives, once again, delivered impressive results. This included areas such as machine and equipment efficiencies, fiber, chemical and material usages, internal energy generation and usage, and labor costs. Our approach to cost-effective management of containerboard supply with demand also delivered the benefits we are anticipating.
This was primarily achieved by idling the Wallula Mill for the entire quarter, which resulted in a market-related downtime of approximately 174,000 tons. However, with the stronger demand in our packaging segment, we ended the quarter with inventory levels lower than expected. Based on our current outlook for improved demand, together with current plans for the first quarter of 2024 for the scheduled mill maintenance outages and completing the final phase of the containerboard conversion on the number three machine at our Jackson, Alabama mill, we are planning to restart the number three machine at the Wallula, Washington mill during the fourth quarter in order to bring our inventories to desired levels. I'll now turn it over to Tom, who will provide further details on containerboard sales in the corrugated business.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
Thank you, Mark. Packaging segment volume for the quarter exceeded our guidance estimates. Corrugated product shipments per workday were up 1.9%, and total shipments with two less shipping days, were down 1.3% compared to last year's third quarter. Versus the second quarter of 2023, shipments per day were up 3.9%, and total shipments were up 2.3%, even though there was one less shipping day. Outside sales volume of containerboard was 33,000 tons above last year's third quarter and 5,000 tons above the second quarter of 2023.
Demand headwinds from a shift of consumer buying preferences towards more service-oriented spending, persistent inflation, and higher interest rates continue to negatively impact consumers' purchases of both durable and nondurable goods. However, we mentioned last quarter that many customers were telling us the inventory destocking of boxes and their products was behind them, and we were hopeful that that would translate to improving volume throughout the second half of the year. We saw that occurring during the third quarter, and we expect that momentum to continue into the fourth quarter, although there is one less shipping day compared to the third quarter.
Relative to the published reductions in the industry benchmark grades that occurred late last year and earlier this year, domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices and mix were $1.12 per share below the third quarter of 2022, and down $0.45 per share compared to the second quarter of 2023. Export containerboard prices and mix were down $0.21 per share compared to the third quarter of 2022, and down $0.03 per share compared to the second quarter of 2023. I'll now turn it back to Mark.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, Tom. Looking at our paper segment, EBITDA, excluding special items in the third quarter, was $35 million, with sales of $158 million, or a 22.4% margin, compared to the third quarter of 2022's EBITDA of $33 million and sales of $165 million, or a 19.7% margin. Seasonally stronger cut size and printing and converting volumes were 13% higher than the second quarter levels and down almost 8%, versus the third quarter of 2022, with about 40% of the decline being driven by no paper sales from our Jackson Mill in this year's third quarter.
Prices and mix were up about 3.5% from last year's third quarter and down 2% from the second quarter of 2023 due to the declines in the index prices that occurred earlier in the year. Our International Falls Mill managed their nine-day planned maintenance outage very well, and similar to the packaging facilities, the mill remained focused on efficient and cost-effective operations, delivering great results for the quarter. I'll now turn it over to Bob.
Bob Mundy (CFO)
Thanks, Mark. Cash provided by operations during the quarter totaled $339 million, with free cash flow of $250 million. The more significant cash payments during the quarter included capital expenditures of $90 million. Common stock dividends totaled $112 million, $63 million for federal and state income tax payments, and $51 million for pension and other post-employment benefit contributions. In addition, we repurchased just over 286,000 shares of our stock during the quarter at an average price of $144.81 per share, for a total of about $42 million. We ended the quarter with $726 million of cash, including marketable securities, and our liquidity on September 30 was approximately $1.1 billion.
Lastly, our planned annual maintenance outage expense for the third quarter was just over $0.22 per share, and the fourth quarter is now expected to be about $0.19, bringing the 2023 full year total to $0.72 per share. I'll now turn it back over to Mark.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Bob. Looking ahead as we move forward, from the third into the fourth quarter, in our packaging segment, we expect less market-related downtime as we build our inventories back to appropriate levels, along with higher shipments per day in our corrugated products facilities, although our plants will have one less shipping day compared to the third quarter. We also expect lower average prices, primarily due to the majority of the May decrease in the published benchmark index grades being realized throughout the third quarter, as well as a seasonally less rich mix. In our paper segment, volume will be lower compared to the seasonally stronger third quarter, and prices and mix are assumed to trend lower with declines in the index prices.
Operating and converting costs will increase, driven by higher recycled fiber prices, seasonal energy costs, and the restart of the Wallula mill. Depreciation expense is estimated to be slightly higher, and scheduled maintenance outage expenses will be lower. Considering all of these items, we expect the fourth quarter earnings of $1.76 per share. With that, we'd be happy to entertain any questions, but I must remind you that some of the statements we made on the call constituted forward-looking statements. These statements were based on current estimates, expectations, and projections of the company and do involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including the direction of the economy and those identified as risk factors in the annual report on Form 10-K and in subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.
With that, Jamie, I'd like to go ahead and open up the call for questions, please.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star and then one using a touch-tone telephone. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. If you are using a speakerphone, we do ask that you please pick up your handset prior to pressing the keys to ensure the best sound quality. Once again, that is star and then one to ask a question. Our first question today comes from Cashen Keeler from Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Hi, it's George Staphos. How are you, everybody? Congratulations on the quarter.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning, George.
George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
How are you doing? Doing dueling conference calls today at this time. So, again, congratulations on the performance. Can you talk to the you enumerated a number of factors in terms of the lower operating and converting costs. I know, Mark, it's always a number of projects, but were there any in particular that were sources of the improved performance? Yes, there's gonna be some pickup in the fourth quarter seasonally, and you have OCC higher, but how much do you carry forward, and what's the room for further improvement on both operating and converting costs as we look out to 2024 from where we're at right now? If you can talk a little bit to that.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
You know, this, it's the benefit of the year after year, continuous improvement that we've had in place. And as we've said over the, over the years, we're, we're constantly doing hundreds and hundreds of projects a year. You know, some are small, some are large, but nevertheless, it's an ongoing, continuous process across the board. And if you think about the box plants and the mills, there's a daily activity with the technology organization in concert with the local operational management, focused clearly on cost takeout and just operational excellence. And this has been going on for a number of years, and it will continue to go on. Tom, I think, you know, you've got great examples in the, in the box plants that we just continue to execute.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
Yeah, I think, George, this is really, you know, an effort to really realize the deployment of the capital that we've done in all the box plants, and to streamline those box plants and to really get those box plants, you know, right-sized for the growth we've got coming and what the existing volume is right now. So we're very pleased. We're very, very pleased with the results.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
You know, George, as far as next year, we, you know, as you could expect, we're already and have been talking about, you know, what's on the horizon for next year? What are the opportunities? And so we've got a very good, solid plan in place on, on, where we're going after these, you know, cost takeouts and, and continued operational, improvements, along with just being able to, look at what the, the, market requirements are gonna be in terms of customer needs and, and addressing that. And, while we address that, we're always looking at, at how we're, deploying that capital and how that impacts the operation in terms of, labor cost and energy and, input conversion cost. So, we've got a good, good plan for next year also.
George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Sounds like it. Wouldn't be surprised by that, Mark. So to Wallula, and again, I know it's hard to talk about some of this live, Mike, but the restart for the fourth quarter, what does it mean about what your customers are saying for 2024? I realize you need to rebuild inventories, and we know PM3 at Jackson's gonna be down for the last part of the conversion. But, you know, what does it mean in terms of your demand outlook, what your customers are saying? And, you know, hopefully, this isn't the case, but if things wind up being, from a macro standpoint, a little bit softer, how quickly could you, you know, maybe pull back on Wallula, if need be?
Then my last question, I'll turn over: Can you talk to us a bit about how your early fourth quarter bookings and billings are, and how we should again think about how those map to actual volumes? Thanks, and good luck in the quarter, guys.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, George. Yeah, you know, as far as Wallula, as we've always said, we're gonna run to demand.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
Yep.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Wallula is just one of the opportunities we have to move the needle on our needs. By getting number three started up, you know, over the course of the next couple of weeks, it will fulfill our current needs, and we'll anticipate that through next year. If demand just holds on the trajectory that it is right now, we'll need Wallula running through the year. You know, we will look at the opportunity to supply the marketplace. We've got our own internal targets on what we want our inventories to be to, you know, minimize transportation and logistics issues. But we can flex the system up and down, and we'll, as we always have, we will always run to demand.
So that's how I'll answer that. And then, Tom, why don't you go into the current box set up?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
Yeah, let me first just kinda tag along with what Mark just said relative to running to demand. You know, that is what we do, and if we didn't have the demand, we wouldn't be talking about restarting Wallula, pure and simple.
George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Yep.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
Now, to calibrate that a little bit, George, I think you need to really look at our low point was the first quarter of 2023 in terms of demand. Our demand currently is, you know, just in a couple of quarters, is now 8% higher than that number and going higher going forward. So, you know, that's the real reason why we need the, you know, the cut up in at Wallula. It's really being driven on the box side of the business more so than anything else. And relative to the to the bookings and the billings, again, you know, our bookings are, you know, are up 14%, for this, you know, at the beginning. And again, that's...
You know, you gotta take that number 'cause we've had high numbers, and then we come in a little low, you know, we come in significantly lower for the actual quarter because a lot of these bookings are for, you know, for far, you know, quite a ways out. But I think the key here is, is that the backlog remains incredibly strong, and our cut up demand is, is also very strong. So we feel, we feel very good about, where we are in the fourth quarter and certainly entering into next year.
George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thank you very much.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Next question, please.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Mark Weintraub from Seaport. Please go ahead with your question.
Mark Weintraub (Partner and Senior Managing Director-Paper and Packaging Analyst)
Thank you. Tom, just following up, you mentioned an 8% reference to your demand now versus, I think, first quarter. So, is that sort of what you're expecting in the fourth quarter on an average day basis? Because I was sort of trying to do a little bit math, and, again, is that how to think about that number you just mentioned?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
Well, yeah, Mark. I mean, our trend still remains positive, so, you know, we'll be up. And, you know, I think it's really important to get calibrated kind of the correct way to some extent. And 'cause when we look at the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, in 2022, we had an extra day in there, given the way the FBA holidays fell. So we were actually up a couple of percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 over the third quarter of 2022. And, but then, of course, you know, in the first quarter of 2023 is when we really hit what I call rock bottom in terms of demand.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
And as I said, so we're up just in a couple of quarters, 8%, and we look at that number going up again in the fourth quarter.
Mark Weintraub (Partner and Senior Managing Director-Paper and Packaging Analyst)
Got it. Okay, thank you. And, just on the Jackson project, could you just, remind us-
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Mm-hmm
Mark Weintraub (Partner and Senior Managing Director-Paper and Packaging Analyst)
What the end result is going to be? And is it happening in the fourth quarter and the first quarter? And-
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
No.
Mark Weintraub (Partner and Senior Managing Director-Paper and Packaging Analyst)
Oh, okay. Just color on that would be great.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. No, we're, you know, the work will be done next year, late first quarter into the second quarter. It's a longer outage, but it will be the final phase of the completion work necessary to take care of the big machine. But you're talking about, you know, 23 additional high-pressure dryer cans, modifying the press section. We're removing the fourth press and installing the new shoe press. You know, a number of modifications in that regard to enhance the speed, the drying capability. But it's that final phase that gets the productivity up, but also some of the work in the back end of the mill that is related to the cost position of the mill.
So when this work is done, depending on the demand coming out of that mill, that mill will be, you know, as far as cost competitive position, it will be right in there with DeRidder and Counce and Valdosta.
Mark Weintraub (Partner and Senior Managing Director-Paper and Packaging Analyst)
Great. And if you just remind, I think it was at, like, a 265,000 ton per year, this part, or correct me what that number was. And if there's a way for it to calibrate the amount of, you know, cost per ton or whatever the best way to look at it, what you're expecting to achieve with this last phase would be helpful too.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
You know, it's... I'm not gonna answer that right now because I'm—I don't wanna say the wrong thing. I'm gonna let Bob, if he recalls. But at the end of the day, the machine, you know, if you think about where we've been running the machine on a daily basis, you know, the machine's been flexing anywhere from 1,200 tons a day to 1,800 tons a day, depending on what we needed. But when we're done with this project, the capability of that machine, you know, will be well over 2,000 tons a day. You know, the target is 2,400 tons a day when we're done with this. So if you use a 352-day a year, you'll get your annual tons.
Bob Mundy (CFO)
Yeah, Mark, and the improvement from, like, where we are today versus where we will be when we hit that run rate after the completion of the second phase, you know, it's close to $40 a ton. You know, that benefit coming from most of your direct variable-type costs, and you're getting all, you know, this additional volume with, you know, no increases in your, obviously, your indirect costs or any fixed costs. So you get a nice huge benefit once this project is completed.
Mark Weintraub (Partner and Senior Managing Director-Paper and Packaging Analyst)
Great. And so we can just take the 2,400 times 350 or whatever, or 360 and-
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
You know, just for simple math, you can, you know, whether you use 2000 or 2200, but the ultimate goal, between myself and some of the people around me, it's that machine will be a 2400-ton-a-day machine someday, when we're done fine-tuning it. But it.
Mark Weintraub (Partner and Senior Managing Director-Paper and Packaging Analyst)
Got it
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Will be, to my knowledge, it'll be the most productive, low-cost linerboard machine in the Western Hemisphere.
Mark Weintraub (Partner and Senior Managing Director-Paper and Packaging Analyst)
Super. One, one last quick one. And curiously, was mix much of a factor in terms of the, you know, the $133, I guess is $112 domestic, but was mix much of a factor in the cargo, or was that just mostly, you know, price?
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
No, mix is a big factor in there, both in you know, end uses and in basis weights. So, you know, there's a heck of a lot that goes into, you know, what the final pricing is. And, you know, as I mentioned last time, and I'll just mention it again, you know, building products, that's still that segment, which is a good segment for us, still remains underwater, as housing starts, you know, have been affected by higher interest rates. The graphics mix, you know, and the effect of what's going on and the changes that are taking place in brick-and-mortar stores, that's been impacted. And of course, our automotive segment with the UAW strike is now really starting to get impacted.
Now, all of those, all of those segments tend to be on the higher price side. However, you know, we've got, we've got a lot of other segments that are doing quite well, and, you know, and we haven't been, you know, impacted much at all, other than what you've seen in the publications in terms of price.
Mark Weintraub (Partner and Senior Managing Director-Paper and Packaging Analyst)
Okay, super. Thank you.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you. Next question.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Michael Roxland from Truist. Please go ahead with your question.
Michael Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you, Mark, Tom, and Bob, for taking my questions. Congrats on another solid quarter, despite a tough environment.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
Thanks, Mike.
Michael Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Just kind of a little bit more—I wonder if you could provide a little more color just about the cadence of shipments during the quarter. Just, you know, a little more color on or elaborating upon, I should say, some of the different end markets. I need some good color on the prior questions on building products in the automotive segment. But anything you could provide as to maybe the cadence during the quarter and what end markets really showed some significant growth as the quarter progressed?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
End markets and then when things started picking up.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, yeah. Okay. Well, Mike, I kind of... I think I got most of what you're asking here, but, you know, outside of those markets that I mentioned, you know, one other market that I'd mentioned prior was the ag business, and told you that, you know, we had a lot of headwinds in ag, especially weather-related. Those have pretty much dissipated, and we're looking for a very good ag season coming up. So that's gonna be a lift. Of course, e-com has, you know, continues to kind of take a little bit of a larger share of the corrugated business, and that looks very good.
And you know, all in general, I mean, we're selling a lot of food and beverage and all sorts of other segments, and those segments either remain very steady or have you know, look, look good going forward. And I think the best news is it's becoming more predictable now, given the fact that we've gotten all of this inventory and destocking out of the way, and our customers are operating quite lean at the moment. And so it's a lot easier to predict what's happening in a number of these segments. Hope that answers your question.
Michael Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
It does. No, it's very helpful. Thank you. And, as you think about what bringing back Wallula, can you, can you talk about any headwinds that any of your other mills might face? I recall that last quarter you mentioned that because of Wallula being down, you were able to optimize production at your, at your remaining mills, achieving a $15 per ton benefit. So any headwinds that you could expect or anticipate at your other mills once Wallula is fully up and running?
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Well, no, again, currently, because of the inventory situation, we'll, we'll have to run the entire mill system to capacity. And so the six mills that ran during the third quarter will have to continue running full out, and then Wallula number three will have to come up and perform equally as efficiently.
Michael Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
One final question, I think, squeeze it in here. Mark, can you help us think about how you're thinking of growing the business once, well, once you're past the phase, the conversion of number three at Jackson next year? Now, where does growth come from next? Is it the current conversion of International Falls, is it the resumption of M&A? How should we think about you growing the business, you know, let's say, post-2024?
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Well, you know, if you look at over the decades, we've always grown with our customers, and we still have the most diverse broad book of business nationwide with local accounts. And we'll continue to grow with those accounts and help enhance their business. And so that's where a lot of the opportunity always comes from. Tom, do you want to elaborate on that?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
Well, I think in addition, I think, you know, that, as I mentioned, these segments that are down, those segments are gonna come back, so they're gonna show back up. And, and we'll continue to, you know, what we think is operate, you know, demonstrate the best value in the marketplace to an entire customer base and, and be able to grow our business accordingly as well. So, you know, we'll-- we are, you know, we're, we're constantly looking outward to see what, see what's possible and what those demands look like, and working very closely with our customers, and we wanna make sure we're well-aligned. That's what's driving the, the whole Wallula project at the moment.
Michael Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Thank you very much, and good luck in the quarter.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you. Next question, please.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Gabe Hajde from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead with your question.
Gabe Hajde (Research Analyst)
Hey, this is Alex on for Gabe. Thanks for taking my question. So, just thinking about the inventory level, can you maybe just kind of comment on what your targeted inventory looks like through year-end or Q1, when thinking about the Jackson outage?
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Well, you know, we never give absolute numbers, but I can tell you when we started out the third quarter, the targets we had in mind, you know, we were dramatically lower than what our goals were for the ending inventory. And that's a positive situation to be in, especially when we have the opportunity to get Wallula started back up and satisfy that demand. But you know, we have a number in mind, and what will influence that number, of course, is the shutdown schedule we have in plan for the Jackson conversion and then the other annual shutdowns that will take place in the first six months of the year, in the rest of the containerboard system.
Without giving you an absolute number, we have some work to do to get our inventory up where it needs to be to get us into the new year and then get us through the first six months of the year.
Gabe Hajde (Research Analyst)
All right, thanks. And just thinking about Wallula, is there anything, does anything change with the cost structure that we should be mindful of as the mill restarts, anything variable or fixed?
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
You know, again, Wallula, it's no surprise, is our higher-cost mill because of the fiber basket and the energy situation in the Pacific Northwest. But it remains a critical mill to us because of the locale with our Pacific Northwest box plants. And so in that regard, the cost position won't change. You know, we're taking advantage of running the big machine. You know, we don't currently need the number two machine running, but that could change. So again, we will run to demand, we will satisfy what we need. Tom, you wanna add?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
Yeah, I would just add that, you know, with the Wallula mill operating in a very large market for us, it certainly gives us a lot more flexibility in the box plant to react and to respond quicker to the marketplace as that continues to rebound. And, of course, that's heavy ag up there as well. So, you know, this will give us some advantage in terms of flexibility in that marketplace.
Bob Mundy (CFO)
Yeah, Alex, and I'll, I'll just add that, you know, when we bring Wallula back on in the fourth quarter, again, we're doing our comparisons to the third. You know, as Mark said, it, it is our highest cost mill, and, you know, we are, as we get things ready so that we can, you know, restart the machine, the first of November, you know, we have been incurring labor costs and other things, obviously, with no production. So, but there are no significant, cash costs to, to restart. There may be some non-cash, some raw material write-off type, obsolescence-type things, but nothing, nothing significant there.
But it does, you know, if you're comparing to the third quarter, it accounts for, as far as our cost increase, if you look at our operating costs, it's, you know, almost half of the increase is just coming from, you know, restarting Wallula and bringing those costs back online.
Gabe Hajde (Research Analyst)
Great. Okay, that's fair. And I guess, my last question is, just thinking about 2024, maybe, can you, can you just kinda reframe how you're thinking about 2024? I understand it's, you know, still, we still have another quarter to go, but just for, you know, the high levels of percentages, how you're thinking about 2024? Thanks.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Well, just on a macro level, we're gonna continue to do what we do, run to demand. But the other thing is, how... If I were an investor, which I am, but I would be looking at this on how we use our cash and where we're deploying cash. And we talked about this a little bit at the July call for next year, and we would anticipate the capital spending discipline to continue in the trend that it's been, where we'll be in that $400 million level this year.
Plans call for next year to continue that pace of capital deployment, which if you then think about the excess cash being generated, where that goes, that you know there are other opportunities to take advantage of that and bring value to the shareholders. So we'll get again continue to take advantage of the benefits of all the capital spending that we've been bringing to bear, get Jackson completed, and then continue to look at more opportunities and execute and work with our customer base and taking care of our customers.
Gabe Hajde (Research Analyst)
Perfect. Okay, I'll turn.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you. All right, next question?
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari from Citi. Please go ahead with your question.
Anthony Pettinari (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Good morning.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Morning.
Anthony Pettinari (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
You know, you know, we've seen a large amount of new recycled capacity being added, you know, to the market this year, I guess some integrated, some non-integrated. And I just had two questions: I guess, first, you know, could you talk about the impact on the market that you've seen or maybe haven't seen? And then second, you know, maybe from a more big-picture perspective, you know, how should we think about PCA's mix? You know, historically, you've been a virgin board producer. Are there some opportunities to add recycled capacity? You know, I guess, we'll look and process OCC, or do you still see, you know, virgin playing this kind of unique role in the U.S. market? You know, how do you, how do you think about that, maybe over the next decade?
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
You know, we've always been primarily a virgin linerboard, you know, medium producer. We have the capability of flexing a number of our mills. I think most people understand that we've invested heavily over the last decade in these conversion opportunities, DeRidder, Wallula, you know, now the Jackson mill conversion, the northern mills all have recycled capacity. But again, we're not going to put all our eggs in one basket and go, you know, all into recycle. We take advantage of it, and it does give us some opportunity to flex the fiber cost and, you know, time of year and availability.
But, you know, again, I think if you look at us 10 years from now, we'll still look the same, as we do today in terms of our fiber balance. Tom?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
Anthony, the impact in the marketplace of the, let's just say, the one-offs, even having some integration in some of these mills, is bearing out exactly like I had told you it would. With the very limited open market, we have seen virtually no impact at all from these mills. They're gonna have to find a home somewhere else. Now, the ones that are integrated and, you know, will be running to demand, I'm sure, and they're not even attempting to sell into the open market. Those that are the one-offs might attempt to sell into the open market, but again, it's. We're finding that our domestic customers want to stick with PCA for the fact that we've got a great quality linerboard and medium, and we take care of our customers.
Our service is very good, and they've shown absolutely zero interest in moving to any other supplier. And I think that's probably true across the board. So, you know, hopefully that answers that. And, you know, just to tag on with what Mark was saying, we value our fiber flexibility, and I can tell you that our mills are, you know, if you go back, you know, you can go back in history and find PCA was a heavyweight mill system, and we've completely adapted to whatever the market is today. And, you know, we've got this ability to basically tailor our liners to whatever the needs of our customers are, and that's a huge competitive advantage we have.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
One of the factors, if you think about recycled versus virgin fiber. Virgin fiber prices and input costs, conversion costs have been very stable over the decades, relatively speaking. If you're solely dependent on OCC, DLK, the price and cost input swings have been wild. You know, high, low, high, low, and so trying to anticipate what your conversion cost is not, you know, a good place to be if you're 100% recycled. So we like where we are. We will continue with this model. Next question?
Anthony Pettinari (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. Yeah, that's very helpful. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one, using a touch-tone telephone. Once again, to withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. Again, that is star and then one to join the question queue. Our next question comes from Phil Ng, from Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
Good morning, Mark, Bob, Tom. This is John.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
Good morning.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, Phil.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
I wanted to start off with the implied Q4 guide for box shipments. I mean, I know you said, so far, bookings are up 14%, but bookings aren't what's actually built. So if I'm just reading your press release, being up on a per-day basis in Q4, quarter-over-quarter, one less shipping day, it seems to imply that Q4, at least for the guide, is up about 14.5 or so, 15%. Is that the right way to think about it? You know, any kind of extra color you could give on that?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
No, that's not the right way to think about it, Phil, but I'm going to turn it over to Bob and see if he can walk you through this just a little bit, maybe.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, I'd-
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
Get you calibrated.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Well, I'm not sure I can, Tom. No, Phil, that's... I'm not sure. Maybe we talk afterwards, but I'm not just not sure how you're, how you're arriving at that, certainly from anything that we've said or put out. But that obviously, it'd be a tremendous thing if if that were to happen, but, I just, just don't see how you're, how you're getting there. Maybe we could just talk offline.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
Sounds good. Then, just in terms of expectations going to fourth quarter, obviously, it sounds like things are, you know, even if not mid-teens, they're still going pretty good, and you have more visibility. Seems a little bit in contrast to what RISI has said with just generally expectations for a softer holiday demand. I know it's customer by customer, and they're obviously not surveying the whole market, but are you seeing the holiday demand here in the fourth quarter actually coming through pretty good?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
Yes, I would say the holiday demand is going to be, is going to be strong. Yes.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
Great. And just one last quick clarification. The 174,000 tons of economic downtime that you called out, was that just for Wallula, or the whole company is incorporating to that for the economic downtime?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP, Corrugated Products)
That was the Wallula downtime.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
Okay. All right, appreciate it. I'll turn it over.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Okay. Thank you. Next question. Jamie, anybody left on the queue? I guess we will conclude. I think we've lost our moderator on the call, but for those of you that joined us today, I want to thank you for taking the time, and I look forward to having you join us at the end of January for our full year and fourth quarter call. With that, have a good day. Take care.