Packaging Corporation of America - Q4 2023
January 25, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Thank you for joining Packaging Corporation of America's fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings results conference call. Your host today will be Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of PCA. Upon conclusion of his narrative, there will be a question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the floor over to Mr. Kowlzan. Please proceed when you are ready.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, Jamie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for participating in the Packaging Corporation of America's fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings release conference call. Again, I'm Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO of PCA, and with me on the call today is Tom Hassfurther, Executive Vice President, who runs the packaging business, and Bob Mundy, our Chief Financial Officer. As usual, I'll begin the call with an overview of the fourth quarter and full year results, and then I'll be turning the call over to Tom and Bob, who'll provide further details. After they're done, I'll wrap things up, and then we'd be glad to take questions. Yesterday, we reported fourth quarter 2023 net income of $189 million or $2.10 per share.
Excluding special items, fourth quarter 2023 net income was $192 million or $2.13 per share, compared to the fourth quarter of 2022's net income of $215 million or $2.35 per share. Fourth quarter net sales were $1.94 billion in 2023, and $1.98 billion in 2022. Total company EBITDA for the fourth quarter, excluding special items, was $394 million in 2023, and $409 million in 2022.
Excluding the special items, we also reported full year 2023 earnings of $784 million or $8.70 per share, compared to the 2022 earnings of $1.04 billion or $11.14 per share. Net sales were $7.8 billion in 2023 and $8.5 billion in 2022. Excluding special items, total company EBITDA in 2023 was $1.6 billion, compared to the $1.9 billion in 2022. Fourth quarter and full year 2023 net income included special items, primarily for certain costs at our Jackson, Alabama mill, for the paper to containerboard conversion-related activities, and the closure and other costs related to corrugated products, facilities, and design center.
Details of all special items for the years, for the year 2023 and 2022 were included in the schedules that accompanied our earnings press release. Excluding the special items, $0.22 per share decrease in fourth quarter 2023 earnings compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, was driven primarily by lower prices and mix of $1.93 in the packaging segment, lower prices and mix $0.04 and volume $0.03 in the paper segment, and higher depreciation expense $0.10. These items were partially offset by very good volume in the packaging segment of $1.07 per share.
We also had lower operating and converting costs of $0.51, driven by very good process efficiencies and control over other usages of fiber, chemicals, energy, materials, and labor, as well as lower energy and wood fiber prices. In addition, we have lower scheduled maintenance outage expenses of $0.19, lower freight and logistics expenses $0.03, lower other expenses $0.04, and a lower share count resulting from share repurchases $0.04. The results were $0.37 above the fourth quarter guidance of $1.76 per share, primarily due to higher volumes in our packaging segment, lower operating and converting costs, lower freight and logistics expenses.
Looking at the packaging business, EBITDA, excluding special items in the fourth quarter of 2023 of $385 million, with sales of $1.8 billion, resulted in a margin of 21.7% versus last year's EBITDA of $392 million and sales of $1.8 billion, and also a 21.7% margin. For the full year 2023, packaging segment EBITDA, excluding special items, was $1.6 billion, with sales of $7.1 billion, or a 21.8% margin, compared to the full year 2022 EBITDA of $1.8 billion, with sales of $7.8 billion or a 23.8% margin. Throughout the quarter, demand in the packaging segment was stronger than our expectations.
This higher volume, along with the operational benefits of our capital spending program and continued emphasis on cost management and process efficiencies across the entire manufacturing and converting facility system, drove operating and converting costs lower as well. We had an excellent restart of the Wallula, Washington mill and the No. 3 machine during the latter part of October, and ran exceptionally well during the November, December period. That helped us meet the stronger demand and build some needed inventory during the quarter to ensure the customers that our customers are supplied with their needs.
We plan to restart the No. 2 machine at the Wallula Mill in this first quarter to help manage our expectations in the first half of 2024, for continued strong demand, together with scheduled mill maintenance outages and the final phase of the containerboard conversion of the No. 3 machine at our Jackson, Alabama mill. I'll now turn it over to Tom, who'll provide more details on containerboard sales and the corrugated business.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Thank you, Mark. As Mark mentioned, packaging segment volume for the quarter exceeded our guidance estimates. Corrugated product shipments per workday were up 5.1%, and total shipments with one additional shipping day were up 6.9% compared to last year's fourth quarter. Versus the third quarter of 2023, shipments per day were up 5.2%, and total shipments were up 3.4%, even though there was one less shipping day. Outside sales volume of containerboard was 88,000 tons above last year's fourth quarter and 17,000 tons above the third quarter of 2023. Our order backlog and containerboard cut-up remained incredibly strong throughout the quarter.
Although demand continues to be challenged by persistent inflation, higher interest rates, and other factors, we expect our shipments to continue this positive momentum as we enter the first half of 2024. Relative to the published reductions in the industry benchmark grades that occurred in 2023, domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices and mix together were $1.73 per share below the fourth quarter of 2022, and down $0.40 per share compared to the third quarter of 2023, which included a richer mix of graphics and point-of-purchase display business. Export containerboard prices and mix were down $0.20 per share compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, and down $0.01 per share compared to the third quarter of 2023.
Beginning January 1st, 2024, we began invoicing a $70 per ton price increase for linerboard and a $100 per ton increase for medium according to our recent price announcement. As you are probably aware, this past Friday, the RISI Pulp & Paper Week publication did not recognize any increase in the industry's benchmark prices for either linerboard or medium. I'm sure you will have some questions for us on this topic, and we'll be happy to discuss them with you shortly. I'll turn it back to Mark.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Tom. Looking at the paper segment, EBITDA, excluding special items in the fourth quarter, was $35 million, with sales of $144 million, or a 24.5% margin, compared to the fourth quarter of 2022's EBITDA of $39 million and sales of $154 million, or 25.7% margin. For the full year 2023, paper segment EBITDA, excluding special items, was $151 million, with sales of $595 million, or a record 25.3% margin, compared to the full year 2022 EBITDA of $132 million, with sales of $622 million, or a 21.3% margin.
Prices and mix were down 3% from last year's fourth quarter and from the third quarter of 2023, driven by the declines in the index prices that occurred during the year. Although slightly better than our fourth quarter guidance, sales volume was 3% below last year's fourth quarter and down approximately 6% versus the seasonally stronger third quarter of 2023. The management team and all the employees of our paper business have done a tremendous job over the last several quarters to optimize our inventory and product mix and remain focused on efficient and cost-effective operations in order to continue delivering outstanding results during 2023. I'll now turn it over to Bob.
Bob Mundy (CFO)
Thanks, Mark. Cash provided by operations during the quarter totaled $335 million, and free cash flow was $194 million. The primary payments of cash during the quarter included capital expenditures of $141 million, dividend payments of $112 million, cash tax payments of $59 million, and net interest payments of $26 million. For the full year 2023, cash from operations was $1.3 billion, with capital spending of $470 million, and free cash flow, a record $845 million. Our final recurring effective tax rate for 2023 was 24.5%. During the fourth quarter, we issued $400 million of new ten-year notes.
The proceeds from these notes will be used to redeem our $400 million notes that mature in September of 2024. Our net debt is not affected by this transaction, and the proceeds from this issuance will be invested in marketable securities at an interest rate exceeding that of the new notes. The new bonds raised our overall fixed interest rate by approximately 30 basis points and extended the overall average maturity of our debt portfolio from 14.1 years to 15.6 years. Excluding the proceeds from this transaction, our year-end cash on hand balance, including marketable securities, was just over $800 million, with liquidity of $1.1 billion.
Regarding full-year estimates of certain key items for the upcoming year, we expect total capital expenditures to be in the range of $470 million-$490 million, and DD&A is expected to be approximately $530 million. We estimate dividend payments of $450 million and cash pension and post-retirement benefit plan contributions of $27 million. Our full-year interest expense in 2024 is expected to be approximately $53 million, and net cash interest payments should be about $60 million. The estimate for our 2024 book effective tax rate is 25%. Currently, planned annual outages at our mills in 2024, including lost volume, direct costs, and amortized repair costs, is expected to total $0.96 per share.
The current estimated impact by quarter in 2024 is $0.26 per share in the first quarter, $0.16 in the second, $0.19 in the third, and $0.35 per share in the fourth quarter. These expenses include the volume and cost impact that will be incurred during the completion of the final phase of converting the No. 3 machine at the Jackson Mill to containerboard during the first and second quarters. This will negatively impact our first quarter results by approximately $0.16 per share and our second quarter results by $0.08 per share. I'll now turn it back over to Mark.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, Bob. I'm very proud of the outstanding results PCA delivered in 2023 under very challenging demand conditions. We successfully completed numerous cost reduction and process improvement projects, along with other key strategic initiatives at the containerboard mills and corrugated products plants. Our dedicated sales and customer service organizations continued to be extremely motivated at understanding the business of our customers. They were very responsive to our customers' needs and worked proactively to help them with their solutions to their opportunities and their challenges. These combined efforts allowed us to enhance our entire packaging business and deliver profitable growth opportunities for our customers and shareholders now and into the future. 2023 also saw our paper business deliver record margins, reflecting the capabilities of our employees to optimize our product mix, inventory, distribution channels, and overhead structure, along with running very efficient manufacturing operations.
These accomplishments helped us to achieve a new all-time annual record free cash flow. We ended the year with over $1.1 billion of liquidity and extended the overall average debt maturity to almost 16 years. We continued our commitment to a strong balance sheet and a balanced approach toward capital allocation. This allows us to profitably grow the company and to maximize returns for our shareholders, while maintaining the financial flexibility to react quickly to situations and opportunities. None of these things would be possible without the hard work of the talented employees and strong partnerships we've built with our customers and suppliers over many, many years.
Looking ahead, as we move from the fourth and into the first quarter, as Tom indicated in our packaging segment, we expect continued positive momentum and demand, along with two additional shipping days in the first quarter, to drive higher total corrugated product shipments. Despite restarting the No. 2 machine at the Wallula Mill, containerboard volume will be lower due to the downtime associated with the conversion of the No. 3 machine at the Jackson Mill and a scheduled maintenance outage at the Counce, Tennessee mill. Prices and mix should be slightly higher with the implementation of our announced January price increases, partially offset by a decrease in the published benchmark prices that occurred late in 2023, with export prices fairly flat. In our paper segment, we expect an improved mix to move prices slightly higher with flat sales volume.
Recycled fiber and energy prices will be higher, and unusually cold seasonal weather will negatively impact usages and yields for energy, wood, and chemicals, along with higher operating costs associated with the restart of the full operations at the Wallula Mill compared to the fourth quarter operations. Labor and benefits costs will have seasonal timing-related increases that occur at the beginning of a new year related to annual wage and benefit increases, the restart of payroll taxes and share-based compensation expenses. And finally, as Bob mentioned, scheduled outage expenses will include the significant first quarter impact of the conversion outage at the Jackson Mill, which is estimated to be $0.16 per share. Considering these items, we expect the first quarter earnings of $1.54 per share.
With that, Jamie, I'd like to open the call for questions, and we can proceed as you call it out. Thanks, Jamie.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll begin the question-and-answer session. To join the question queue, you may press star and then one. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. If you are using a speakerphone, we do ask that you please pick up the handset prior to pressing the keys to ensure the best sound quality. Once again, in order to join the question queue, please press star and one. Our first question today comes from Marc Weintraub from Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead with your question.
Marc Weintraub (Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development)
Thank you. First, congrats on another really strong year in a challenging environment. So you say in the press release that you are expecting a little slightly higher pricing despite the $20 decrease in November, and obviously, you're including some from the January increase, which as you mentioned, we're gonna have questions on, undoubtedly. Is that fair to say that you're including a little bit more than $20 on average in the 1Q? How should we think about that?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Yeah, Marc, this is Tom. Yeah, well, it's slightly above the $20. You know, we've got the follow-through on that published $20 down, and as I said, we put the linerboard and medium price increase into effect January 1st. And we're invoicing accordingly and getting paid accordingly. And I might also add that, as a net buyer, we also have accepted the $70 increase on the buy side and have been paying invoices accordingly.
Marc Weintraub (Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development)
Okay. And so just to clarify, when you said net $20, was that the increase minus the impact of the $20, or was that that you're effectively, because of the way the lags work, et cetera, as you push it through into box prices, that the impact of the $70 that's been announced is slightly more than $20 in the first quarter? I apologize for the question, but just clarification.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Yeah, you're pretty much, you're pretty much right. And you gotta also think about it is the $20 is factoring into the box business right now, given contract triggers.
Marc Weintraub (Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development)
Got it. Understood. And, and lastly, and I'll turn over. Could you give a sense of how demand is shaping up in January so far for the business?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Yeah, demand remains very strong. We're currently booking and billing about 8% above, you know, a year ago. And, you know, it's... And we see that trend continuing through the quarter.
Marc Weintraub (Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development)
Okay, thank you.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, Marc. Next question?
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Sandra Liang from Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead with your question. Sandra, your line is live. Is it possible your phone may be on mute?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Jamie, let's move to the next question.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Mike Roxland from Truist. Please go ahead with your question.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah. Thank you, Mark, Bob, Bob, and Tom, for taking my questions. Congrats on a, on a really good quarter.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you.
Bob Mundy (CFO)
Thank you.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Thanks.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Just wanted to get a sense from you regarding the mix in 4Q. Box prices looked like they were notably down sequentially year-over-year. Now, aside from lower price, were there any one-time mix issues as well? And I recall that, you know, in 3Q, you called out, you know, weaker building products, lower graphics from softer retail, you know, UAW strike. I'm wondering if that had an impact in 4Q as well, and whether you expect that to fade in 2024.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Mike, the, you know, our 4Q mix was about what we expected it to be. At the end of the third quarter, we had a little more graphics business that came in, which was, which was positive. But, you know, our, our mix in the fourth quarter followed pretty much true to, true to form. And, you know, going into this year, I think that, you know, with some of those headwinds that you talked about behind us, especially the destocking, which was very unpredictable, that we incurred during 2023, will be, it's kind of steady as she goes in 2024.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Thank you, Tom. So would it be fair to say, you know, that in 4Q, some of those issues you mentioned in 3Q last time continued a little bit in 4Q? And that.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Yeah, they did a little bit into fourth. They did, but then they began to settle out towards the end of the year.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Okay, got it. Thank you for that. And then just, you know, of the $193 in lower prices and mix, is there any way to parse how much was price versus mix? And then in terms of your, the $1.54 guide, what's embedded for price and mix separately?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Well, I think we've, it's, it's, you know, I mean, it's, it's mostly price, obviously, but then, but then it does get impacted by mix and, you know, that kind of, that kind of varies back and forth. So, you know, we try to, we try to do the best we can to forecast that.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. And also, so Tom, would it be fair to say you're expecting, given destocking coming to an end, given some of these issues mentioned previously in my question, probably a better, you expect a better quality, a high quality mix in 2024 versus 2023?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
I think our mix will be traditional to what it, to what, you know, we typically have.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. And last question just before turning it over. Can you help us just think about what's next for PKG from a growth perspective? Obviously, you're, you know, you're finishing up Jackson here, you still have International Falls. Now, realizing that International Falls is, you know, a great asset, it's modern, generates a lot of cash, has a niche in paper, you know, would you expect to run International Falls as is? What's really the next leg of the growth trajectory for PKG after this?
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, Mike, you know, obviously, you don't know what the future is gonna hold, but we've got a lot of optionality in what we're doing. All of the capital spending that we continue to do in the box plants, as an example, continues to create incredible opportunity to grow with our customers. You know, just this year alone, for 2024, we planned over 30 strategic projects at 26 of our box plants. And this is, you know, major converting equipment installations, corrugators, corrugator rebuilds and upgrades of significant magnitude. You know, this past year, it was the same situation. You know, number of evals, rotary die cutters, you know, corrugators, new plant in Pennsylvania, the start of a new plant out in Salt Lake City.
And so we will continue to build in the internal organic capability to grow with the marketplace. Mills have the runway to continue providing that over the next few years. And then you have to assume, as we have always done, we can grow the container board supply as we need to, whether it's adding capacity in an existing mill or if we had to go out and buy a mill or build a mill. There's a lot of optionality in the future that we have the ability to proceed with. But that's never been an issue for us, and I don't expect it to be an issue in the future.
But right now, the key is that we have tremendous capability within the converting side of the packaging unit and the mill system to provide the containerboard to grow for the next number of years. So I'm very, very encouraged by where we are.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
That's great, Mark. A very good color. Really appreciate it, and best of luck in 2024.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Mike. Next question.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from George Staphos from Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
Cashen Keeler (Associate Equity Analyst)
Yeah. Hi, good morning. This is actually Cashen Keeler sitting in for George Staphos. He had an internal conflict this morning. So I guess just back to the pricing discussion, are you able to comment at all, in terms of what percent of your customer base you're invoicing at those higher prices in both containerboard and boxes?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Well, with regard to linerboard and medium, I'm talking about linerboard and medium here, it's 100% of our customers, you know, outside customers on linerboard and medium, and trade partners as well. So, you know, that's where that stands. And, you know, I can, I'd just like to add, you know, I mean, we're having no customer dispute us on these price increases, or anything. And, you know, obviously, we're disappointed that it didn't show up in the trade publication, as I mentioned earlier. And, you know, right now, we have customers that are incredibly frustrated with the mechanism right now and, feel that there's a, feel that there's a disconnect between what they see going on in the market and what's being reported.
Now, maybe some of that is because the outside market has shrunk so severely that it's quite small now. And you know, we don't want the tail wagging the dog here, but it's, you know, we've got customers now, both on the liner and the box side, that are asking us to look for alternatives. And we'll be exploring any and all alternatives going forward, including maybe not even using an index. But you know, we'll kind of give you some, we'll give you some color on that going forward as that progresses. But I just wanted to make you aware of where our customer base is and how they feel about certain things at the moment.
Cashen Keeler (Associate Equity Analyst)
Okay. Appreciate that color. And then in terms of production, you know, was the cost of production in 4Q where you had anticipated it in packaging? I know you commented that you had lower operating and converting costs year-over-year, but just interested if there were any items that were higher than you expected, kind of, in there. And as you look out for the rest of 1Q, any kind of cost items or lines that might give you pause? I know you commented on fiber and energy and trends, but just shed light on those items.
Bob Mundy (CFO)
Yes, this is Bob. I would just say, relative to 4Q, maybe, you know, OCC prices, that was probably, you know, a little higher than what we had baked in. But, maybe there were some, what we call other fixed-type costs around some services and equipment rentals, some outside things like that, maybe just a touch higher. But, you know, all in, it was certainly a very good quarter from a cost perspective, relative to what we had guided to. You know, as far as the first, the first-going to the first quarter from the fourth, you know, there are some moving parts there. Some of them are just, you know, not what we normally see.
Obviously, we pointed out the big significant change that we're being impacted by relative to the Jackson conversion, which is, you know, on a sequential basis, $0.16 per share. But outside of that, if you look at all of our other costs, you know, there's probably 60% or so of those are what we call seasonal or timing-type cost increases. You know, those would be weather related, which are actually a little more severe going 4Q to 1Q this year because of so much cold weather down in the southern mills and the box plants, which typically, you know, we don't see much of a change relative to usages and things that get impacted by cold weather down there. And then, you know, the wages and benefits.
You know, you know, the base—that base gets larger every year. You never have deflation with your wages and benefits. So the annual increases that we experience going from 4Q into start a new year in 1Q, you know, it just gets higher and higher, the dollar impact of that. Plus, this year, you know, our medical costs alone, they were up probably, you know, over, you know, somewhere 12%-15%. You know, however, you know, on a sequential basis, you know, the weather-related items should flip back the other way as we move from 1Q to 2Q, and 2Q to 3Q, as should about half of those wage-related timing items.
You know, those start to flip back the other way on a sequential basis, so you have to sort of keep that in mind going forward. You know, and I'd say the balance of. Well, I guess one other item is we talked about, you know, bringing Wallula on in the first quarter, and taking Jackson down. So we're replacing low-cost tons with very high-cost tons. You know, that's probably a $0.10 hit in and of itself right there, exclusive of the outage impact, that's $0.16. And then the balance of that is just, you know, inflation-related things that, you know, don't get talked about a lot, you know.
For all these cost increases we incur, believe me, anyone who provides a part, a good, a product, a service to us, they're experiencing those same increases. So there's a lot of, you know, outside services, equipment, rentals, rents, you know, property taxes even. You can go on and on and on. All that is, you know, it's a lot of money that, you know, we have to absorb, especially on a, you see it mostly in a sequential nature, going from 4Q to 1Q. So, I hope that gives you a little color about, you know, what's in those numbers for our guidance.
Cashen Keeler (Associate Equity Analyst)
Great. Thanks for the details.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Next question, please.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Gabrial Hajde from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead with your question.
Gabrial Hajde (Research Analyst)
Mark, Tom, Bob, good morning. Thanks for taking the question.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Morning, Gabe.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Morning.
Bob Mundy (CFO)
Morning.
Gabrial Hajde (Research Analyst)
I wanted to ask a little bit on the demand side. You know, historically speaking, you guys have done a good job of kind of outperforming the industry or even exceeding that, you know, kind of a GDP-type growth. But this quarter was seemingly pretty pronounced relative to what we're reading, maybe in the Green Markets report or RISI. So I'm just curious, if there's anything that you can talk about. I mean, I know historically, you guys haven't talked about, like, a vitality index or something like that, but just maybe new business wins that you all are excited about, or changed incentive structure for your sales folks to go out and win new business.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Gabe, the majority of our increase in volume came from our existing customers. You know, as we've, as we've said many, many times, I mean, you know, that's our, that's our main growth engine, and we try to align with the right kind of customers who, over the long haul, will grow. And I think that's been a big plus for us. Are we winning any new business? Yes, we win some, we win some new business. Some other business goes the other way. It's, you know, in the over the, over time, you know, we do come out, we do come out ahead. But, you know, as you mentioned, I mean, historically, we have outperformed the industry, and, you know, we plan to do so going forward.
But we did lag, you know, as you probably know, you know, for a number of quarters over the last couple of years, there were times when we did lag. And you know, it's because of some of the segments that we were in, and I mentioned before, you know, as an example, I mean, building products went crazy during COVID, and then suddenly that came to a screeching halt. And so some of those segments that we're in did hold us back, but they're coming back now nicely, and that's a big part of our growth.
Gabrial Hajde (Research Analyst)
Okay. Thank you. And then, maybe two questions. On the Jackson conversion, it sounds like, I, I know sometimes that they're not always directly linked in terms of, when the costs flow through and, and the guidance that you gave us, Bob, in terms of the, the $0.26 and the $0.16. But is that happening, you know, is this straddling in March, April from a timing standpoint?
And then I'll ask the question, I don't know if you guys will answer, but, on a sequential basis, if the $70 and $100 a ton is going through, and by our math, that, you know, to your point, Mark, maybe $25 a ton is, is being reflected in Q1, then is it fair that the extra $50 a ton incremental should be on a sequential basis embedded into the second quarter? Thank you.
Bob Mundy (CFO)
Yeah, as far as on the cost side, you know, I mean, that's, that's hitting us in, in...
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
As far as the $20...
Bob Mundy (CFO)
Yeah. You know, as far as, you know, the other $50 through, and that's on, say, you know, that's...
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Well, we...
Bob Mundy (CFO)
Working very hard on making that happen. Getting that taken, you know, more as...
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Right. Well, we're in the, you know, we're in the midst of, you know, discussing all that with our customers, especially on the box side and what the roll through will be, et cetera. So, as I mentioned, we've got the, we got the increase in place for the, for the linerboard and medium, and we'll see where, we'll see where things roll through, but we expect it to be a traditional roll through.
Gabrial Hajde (Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you. Next question, please.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari from Citi. Please go ahead with your question.
Anthony Pettinari (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Good morning.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Morning, Anthony.
Anthony Pettinari (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Tom, hey, you know, following up on your earlier comments, I'm wondering, is there some percentage of your box contracts that are not on Pulp and Paper Week? And I guess looking at other paper grades, you know, there were some boxboard producers who didn't feel like the index was really reflecting what was really happening in the market, and they were able to move some customers off of Pulp and Paper Week. Is that something that you potentially could do, or you think, you know, some customers might welcome? Just wondering if you, you know, to the extent you can discuss, how you think about that.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Well, Anthony, as I mentioned, I mean, we, you know, we do have a high level of frustration, both with customers, both on the liner and on the box side, with pulp and paper, and feel that there's a disconnect there to what they see in the market and what's being reported. As I've said for you know a number of years now, as this independent market continues to shrink, and what we really consider to be a real open market gets into the mid-single digits, you know, and if that's all that's being reported on, that becomes quite a you know can cause that disconnect, in my opinion. So our customers have asked us to look at a lot of different alternatives, which we are doing along with them.
And, you know, we'll see where we end up. Have we moved some people off of that? We don't really like to get into those kind of details just because that's between us and our customers. So, I'll leave that one, you know, as aside, because we're not gonna really get into those discussions, other than I just will tell you, we are looking at any and all alternatives.
Anthony Pettinari (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. That, that's very helpful. And then just switching gears on the CapEx guidance for 2024, I think you said $470 million-$490 million CapEx. Is it possible to break that down between maintenance, discretionary, and then Jackson? And is there any kind of finer point, in terms of the run rate capacity add, from Jackson when that conversion is, is completed?
Bob Mundy (CFO)
Yeah, as far as, I would just say, you know, Jackson will be $30 million-$40 million of that amount. The balance, I would, you know, I'd say 65% or so would be sort of that non-discretionary, you know, must-do type, maintenance-type capital spending. And Mark, you talk about.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, I mean, we're probably spending probably close to $250 million just in the box plants alone this year.
Bob Mundy (CFO)
Yeah, depending on the capacity.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
You know, that's all of the 30 strategic projects we're working on the box plants and building the new plant out in Salt Lake City and finishing that up. And then the rest will be just in the smaller, one-off projects in the mills. And then obviously, we've got you know, the maintenance type capital that goes on, but the bulk of it's, but frankly, the bulk of it's in the box plants, and then finishing up the Jackson conversion.
Anthony Pettinari (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. Is there a final number on the Jackson capacity add, in terms of how much, how many tons that you would expect that to add when it's completed?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
You know, the machine certainly ought to be able to add approximately 175,000-200,000 more incremental tons a year when we're done with this phase of work. I believe the number for 2023's production off that machine was somewhere around 537,000 tons of production for 2023. So if you, if you add 200,000 more tons to that, you're up in that 700,000 tons capability. But again, it all depends on our demand.
Anthony Pettinari (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Right.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
And so we're gonna run to demand, as we always have, but that's, that's the necessity.
Anthony Pettinari (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Runway.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Of being able to build this runway that our customers can depend on, and they'll they know they can grow with us, and we can supply them, the product and the value they need. And so the, the Jackson machine is gonna have that capability to, to ramp up and ramp down, to provide all the grades we need at an incredibly, attractive, cost position.
Anthony Pettinari (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Got it. Got it. I'll turn it over.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Okay, next question, please.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Philip Ng from Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
Hey, guys. Congrats on a really strong quarter.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Thanks.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
Your business is relatively a shorter cycle business, but it certainly seemed pretty confident on the demand outlook for the first half with capacity bringing back online. What are your customers telling you? Are there any pockets of markets that kind of really stand out, where you're seeing demand kind of bounce back in a bigger way? And are you seeing any restocking after, you know, a year's worth of destocking, effectively?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Phil, I think the demand outlook obviously remains good. It's pretty much across the board. There's no one industry that stands out more than the other, other than maybe e-commerce, because you still see the, you know, the brick-and-mortar stores continue to struggle a little bit, but that's more than offset by the e-commerce side of the business. So that remains quite good. And I think, you know, relative to restocking, I would say that the restocking has been quite conservative to date. You know, nobody jumped up and said, "I'm going back to where I was during COVID," or anything like that. They're trying to be reasonably conservative going forward.
I think we probably saw a little bit of a jump as a result of that, but nothing like, nothing like we saw on the destocking side.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
Okay. That's, that's helpful. And then, I guess, a question for Bob. If I look at your last two quarters, operational and converting costs were down pretty sharply, which is impressive, especially with Wallula coming back on. You know, entering the first half of the year, you're gonna have some outage expense with Jackson, but some of the gains you saw in the back half, is that pretty sticky, and that's still to come? And I know you guys talked about, you know, all these different projects you guys are working on the box side of things. So kind of help us think through that driver, potentially good or bad this year.
Bob Mundy (CFO)
I'm sorry, what did you say was sticky, Phil? I didn't catch that part.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
The operational and converting cost, that came down pretty nicely in the back half of 2023.
Bob Mundy (CFO)
Right.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
You know, I'm just trying to gauge, should we expect follow through in 2024, especially with some of the investments you're making on the box plant? Is that a good guy as well?
Bob Mundy (CFO)
No, no, absolutely. I mean, that, you know, as we've said many times, that never stops. And, you know, it's not just capital projects, it's things that don't, you know, it's just changing a behavior, a technique, a process. You know, it doesn't cost money comparing to others, you know, new things, new technologies, new ideas, and those, you know, thousands of those things are going on every year. And that is really what, you know, drives those reductions that we, you know, we've talked about historically, and that certainly will continue in the future.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
One, one good example of that, and we, you know, we don't talk about it a lot, our transportation capability. Over the last decade, we've built an incredibly strong transportation logistics group within the company, and it's nationwide now. We've got a very, very large fleet of tractors and trailers, running the country, taking care of not only containerboard, but a lot of our packaging to the customer. And so that capability of having our own trucking, you know, in-house has provided enormous flexibility and cost management on the transportation side of the equation. So that's just one, one example of how we go about looking at our business and then executing.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
Super. Just one last one from me. I think on the prepared remarks, you called out $1.1 billion liquidity. Mark, you highlighted being balanced in terms of capital deployment. Any opportunities perhaps to play a little offense in a market that's a little more distressed, especially some of the capacity that's come on? Is that an opportunity? You guys are obviously growing pretty nicely and generating a ton of free cash flow here.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
I don't know. I'll let you know when it happens.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
All right, Mark.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
That's the beauty of having that firepower.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
Sounds good. Thank you.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
We can not only continue to look at share buyback and dividends, but if an opportunity comes up on a one-off, on the packaging side to, you know, buy an existing business, we, you know, we can easily move into that. If something on the mill side came up that we found attractive, we could move into that and not worry about how we finance it or how it affects the balance sheet.
And so the other thing I wanna remind everybody, back when we called out the 2023's capital and we, you know, the 2022 capital up over $800 million, and we reminded everybody that the 2022 capital would be going down into a much more manageable level, much more reasonable level in that $400 million range. Just keep in mind, we did that, and we accomplished an incredible amount of high-return projects and impact projects that benefit our customers and our shareholders alike. But also this year, we continued that trend.
We know the $400 million range of high return, high impact projects affords us, again, an incredible opportunity with the balance sheet because all that operating cash that we're generating goes into free cash and can be deployed appropriately. And so we're in a very good place. Over the last 10 years, we've done all the heavy lifting to get the mills and the box plants in very efficient condition. And so now it's much more manageable about how we go about with these projects. And so with the fact that we have the internal capability with the engineering and technology organization to manage the bulk of all this work, we're in a much better position than we've ever been, and we'll continue that.
But again, all optionality is open for us on how we look at the world.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
Okay, appreciate that.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you. Next question.
Operator (participant)
The next question is a follow-up from Marc Weintraub from Seaport Research Partners. Please go with your follow-up.
Marc Weintraub (Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development)
Thank you. So can you share with us the types of alternatives on pricing structures that, that might be contemplated? Would they be more cost tied? Would they be more macro or data tied? Would it be more just going and negotiating with counterparties some combination, or any color as to kind of where the bias might be from, from your perspective?
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Marc, it's nice that you're thinking about it, and I appreciate all your options that you just presented, but I'm not gonna get into that at all, because as I told you before, that's between us and our customers. And we'll work those out as we go forward. So I'm sorry, I can't give you anything, but that's the way we do business.
Marc Weintraub (Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development)
Totally understood. But is there anything that I may have been missing that would have been in the list, recognizing there's gonna be a whole bunch of things that you're gonna be talking about with your customers as you go through the process?
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Nice try. Nice try, but I'm going ditto again, okay?
Marc Weintraub (Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development)
Yeah, I did try. And then...
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
All right.
Marc Weintraub (Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development)
Bob, you'd mentioned about 60% of the costs increase, you know, from 4Q-1Q, seasonal or timing. Could you sort of put a number on that? Would that be like $0.20 per share if it -- we were just to have that 6% come back in the second quarter?
Bob Mundy (CFO)
No, Marc, that'd be, it'd be closer to $35, maybe a little more per share.
Marc Weintraub (Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development)
Great. Okay. Thanks so much.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Okay. Thank you, Marc. Any other questions, please?
Operator (participant)
Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. Once again, that is star and then one to join the question queue. Our next question is also a follow-up from Gabe Hajde from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead with your follow-up.
Gabrial Hajde (Research Analyst)
Tom, Mark, I'm, I'm gonna try one more time, but I apologize in advance, but it's, it's more trying to understand the thought process. And I think the, the price discovery process that, that we've seen over the past 25 years, what we're hearing is, is maybe is, is not, as bulletproof or, or as useful as, as it maybe once was. And, and so maybe really what we're hearing is, you know, and, and something I think is misunderstood in the industry, is that you guys sell boxes that are made to a spec that service a, a, customer's needs, as opposed to selling a customer, a, a current roll of paper.
And so is it fair that, that maybe what's going on behind the scenes is the value that you're bringing to your customers is, is really what you're trying to understand and, and work with them to, to help them understand, ultimately, and, and move the pricing structure to something like that?
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Well, Gabe, you described it very well. I gotta be honest with you. There's, you know, there is a linerboard and medium market, and then there's a box market. And the box market is, you know, all custom-made, lots of different things go into it, and there's a value created accordingly. So, you know, you... As I've said before, I'm not gonna get into all the optionality and all those other sorts of things. Those things we'll discuss with our customers. But you do describe it accurately, I think, especially from our customer's point of view, that what gets reported is quite different than what they see in the marketplace.
And just as an example, I mean, even when the prices went down over the past 18 months or so, there isn't, there isn't a customer who said, "I see that, there's a need for that," or that they saw that in the marketplace. So we've got, what we're hearing from our customers is very different than what get, than what's getting published. And that disconnect, we've gotta, we've gotta figure out how to, how to, you know, solve that disconnect, I guess, is probably the best way to put it.
Gabrial Hajde (Research Analyst)
Very much appreciated. Thank you, and good luck.
Tom Hassfurther (EVP of Corrugated Products)
Thank you.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you. Any other questions, Jamie?
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Charlie Muir-Sands from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead with your question.
Charlie Muir-Sands (Equity Research Analyst)
Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you very much for all the good answers so far. Given us a lot to think about. Just had one question on the Jackson mill. You've obviously very helpfully quantified the temporary cost drag that we should expect in Q1 and Q2, but can you just talk about the cost benefit that we should see from the mill once it fully ramps up? And, you know, perhaps contextualize how much more efficient this mill is compared with the rest of your network.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. You know, we talked about this for the last couple of years, and that when we're done with all of this work, because the work that's going on, it'll start next month and then finish up. It's about a 58-day outage at the mill, but it involves more than just the paper machine, which again, in and of itself, is a lot of work with dryer cans, reel, press section rebuild, but it's also power plant work. We're going to be reconfiguring a lot of the power plant steam flows, steam pressures. We'll be ultimately, we'll be producing more megawatts off the power plant in the back end of the mill and providing more high pressure, high, higher efficient steam into the paper machine.
And so net-net, the mill, when it's done, will have the capability to produce linerboard, and be at or amongst our, our lowest cost in the system. So if you think about Valdosta, DeRidder and Counce, Jackson should be, as good or better, quite frankly, than, than Counce and DeRidder, and, probably give Valdosta a run for its money. And so, so the, the huge opportunity is in the, in the cost savings as we go forward. That, that will flow through in the future. Bob, you want to add to that?
Bob Mundy (CFO)
Yeah, yeah, Charlie, and you know what Mark is describing, if you sort of quantify that, you know, we're looking somewhere between, you know, $35-$40 a ton, you know, once all that work is completed and that machine is fully, you know, fully operational.
Charlie Muir-Sands (Equity Research Analyst)
Many thanks.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you. Any other questions, please?
Operator (participant)
We have an additional question from Richard Bourke from Bloomberg Intelligence. Please go ahead with your question.
Richard Bourke (Senior Analyst)
Thank you for taking the time to answer my question, gentlemen. I was just wondering, with your announced price increase, to be effective January 1st, if you maybe saw some demand get pulled forward into the fourth quarter by customers attempting to get that price increase?
Bob Mundy (CFO)
No, we did not see that, Richard.
Richard Bourke (Senior Analyst)
Okay, thank you.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you. Any other follow-up questions, Jamie?
Operator (participant)
Sir, at this time, I'm showing no additional questions.
Mark Kowlzan (Chairman and CEO)
All right, why don't we go ahead and conclude this? If there are no questions, I'd like to thank everybody for joining us on the call, and we look forward to talking with you in April. Thank you. Everybody, have a good day.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.