PC
PLEXUS CORP (PLXS)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2025 revenue was $1.058B, near the high end of guidance, with GAAP EPS $1.87 and non-GAAP EPS $2.14; non-GAAP EPS beat both company guidance and Street consensus materially, aided by favorable discrete tax items and lower non-operating expense .
- Non-GAAP operating margin held at 5.8% (inline with guidance), while fiscal 2025 delivered 40 bps of non-GAAP op margin expansion and 30% non-GAAP EPS growth year over year .
- Free cash flow was strong at $97M in Q4, driving $154M for FY25; inventory and cash cycle improved to best levels in five years, supporting net cash at year-end .
- Q1 2026 guidance: revenue $1.050–$1.090B, non-GAAP EPS $1.66–$1.81, gross margin 9.8–10.1%, tax rate 16–18%; management expects margins to meet/exceed the 6% target as FY26 progresses, with capex $90–$110M and ~$100M FY26 FCF .
- Stock reaction catalysts: sustained semicap share gains, accelerating program ramps (including unmanned aircraft and power/thermal for AI data centers), and improving Healthcare/Life Sciences demand; watch for potential upside from commercial aerospace if OEM production rates translate into demand within ~90 days .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Robust non-GAAP EPS beat: $2.14 vs guidance $1.82–$1.97; CFO cited lower interest expense, favorable FX vs expectations, and a favorable tax rate as contributors .
- Operational execution: seventh consecutive quarter of inventory reduction; cash cycle improved to 63 days (best in five years), supporting ROIC of 14.6% (+570 bps above WACC) .
- Strategic wins: 28 manufacturing programs worth $274M annualized; notable share gains in semicap, expansion in unmanned aircraft, and AI-powered healthcare platform wins .
Selected management quote:
- “Non-GAAP EPS of $2.14 substantially exceeded our guidance due to favorable discrete tax items, with inline non-GAAP operating margin of 5.8%.” — CEO Todd Kelsey .
- “Cash cycle…63 days…best result delivered in the past five years.” — CFO Patrick Jermain .
What Went Wrong
- Aerospace/Defense revenue decreased 6% sequentially due to minor delays in new program ramps; sector revenue was essentially flat for FY25 as commercial aerospace inventory adjustments offset defense strength .
- Gross margin ticked down sequentially (9.9% vs 10.1% in Q3) on mix and higher incentive compensation, partially offset by productivity gains .
- Non-operating expense expected to rise in Q1 2026 (~$4.6M) as capitalization of interest on site additions fades and tax rate steps up to 16–18% with global minimum tax impacts .
Financial Results
Headline metrics vs prior periods and vs estimates
Street consensus vs actuals (S&P Global; asterisk denotes S&P data*)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment breakdown
Market sector mix
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Revenue of $1.058 billion approached the high end of our guidance… Non-GAAP EPS of $2.14 substantially exceeded our guidance due to favorable discrete tax items… We delivered fiscal fourth quarter free cash flow of $97 million.” — CEO Todd Kelsey .
- “We delivered $154 million in free cash flow for fiscal 2025… ending the year in a net cash position… anticipate delivering robust fiscal 2026 free cash flow of approximately $100 million.” — CFO Patrick Jermain .
- “We are guiding fiscal first quarter revenue of $1.050 to $1.090 billion, non-GAAP operating margin of 5.6% to 6.0% and non-GAAP EPS of $1.66 to $1.81.” — CEO Todd Kelsey .
- “Capital spending [FY26] to be $90 million to $110 million… We expect to maintain margins at a similar level [Q2] with an opportunity to meet or exceed our 6% margin target as the year progresses.” — CFO Patrick Jermain .
Q&A Highlights
- Investments and growth trajectory: Management’s confidence in FY26 growth is tied to substantial new program ramps (including semicap share gains); Penang to break even in one quarter and near corporate margins in two, implying minimal margin drag .
- AI exposure: Focus on power generation and thermal management for AI infrastructure and healthcare devices leveraging AI; compute not a target due to commoditization risk .
- Semicap outlook: Expect FY25/FY26 to be similar, with WFE low-single-digit growth but Plexus driven by share gains to deliver low-teens semicap growth .
- Aerospace/Defense cadence: Q4 delays behind; Q1 sector up mid-single digits; unmanned aircraft subsector a growing driver; potential future tailwinds from commercial aerospace production rate increases in 2026 .
- Margins and efficiency: Higher incentive comp is a headwind; automation and site efficiency (Thailand) can drive margin improvements; FY26 potential to meet/exceed 6% operating margin target .
Estimates Context
- Street consensus for Q4 2025: revenue $1.046B* vs actual $1.058B (beat), non-GAAP EPS $1.86* vs actual $2.14 (beat); EBITDA $79.4M* vs actual $72.3M* (miss on EBITDA) with 6 estimates contributing to EPS and revenue [GetEstimates]* .
- Prior quarters: Q3 2025 revenue $1.021B* vs actual $1.018B (slight miss), non-GAAP EPS $1.71* vs actual $1.90 (beat); Q2 2025 revenue $0.980B* vs actual $0.980B (inline), non-GAAP EPS $1.54* vs actual $1.66 (beat) [GetEstimates]* .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Quality of beat: Non-GAAP EPS beat driven by favorable tax and lower non-operating expense alongside solid execution; sustainability of margin improvement depends on productivity and automation offsetting higher incentive comp .
- Growth vectors: Semicap share gains and program ramps, unmanned aircraft, and AI-adjacent power/thermal projects underpin FY26 revenue acceleration toward the 9–12% goal .
- Operating leverage: Expectation to meet/exceed 6% operating margin in FY26 as Penang ramps quickly and Thailand improves; watch quarterly cadence as Q1 includes seasonal and investment effects .
- Cash discipline: Inventory reduction and cash cycle improvements support ongoing strong FCF (FY26 guide ~$100M) and capital returns via buybacks; ended FY25 in net cash .
- Risk watch: Global minimum tax lifts ETR to 16–18%; tariffs/regulatory dynamics require continued supply chain agility; commercial aerospace visibility uncertain but could turn positive within ~90 days of OEM production rate changes .
- Near-term trading: Positive setup from EPS beat and Q1 guidance within growth framework; monitor semicap orders and A&D ramp timing for confirmation; EBITDA underperformance vs Street is a watch item even as EPS beat supports sentiment [GetEstimates]* .
- Medium-term thesis: Durable multi-sector wins, improving ROIC, and automation-driven efficiency enhance margin resiliency and FCF, supporting re-rating potential if 6%+ operating margin is sustained in FY26 .