Philip Morris International - Q4 2022
February 9, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day. Welcome to the Philip Morris International Q4 2022 and full year earnings conference call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Philip Morris International Management and the question-and-answer session. In order to ask a question, please press the star key followed by the number 1 on your touch-tone phone at any time. Media representatives on the call will also be invited to ask questions at the conclusion of the questions from the investment community. I will now turn the call over to Mr. James Bushnell, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications. Please go ahead, sir.
James Bushnell (VP of Investor Relations and Financial Communications)
Welcome. Thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2022 Q4 and full-year results. You may access the release on pmi.com. A glossary of terms, including the definition for smoke-free products as well as adjustments, other calculations, and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures and additional smoke-free volume and net revenue data are at the end of today's webcast slides, which are posted on our website. Growth rates presented on an organic basis reflects currency-neutral adjusted results, excluding acquisitions and disposals. As such, figures and comparisons presented on an organic basis exclude Swedish Match up until November the 11th, 2023. As mentioned previously, starting in the second quarter of 2022 and on a comparative basis, PMI excludes amortization and impairment of acquired intangibles from its adjusted results.
Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results. I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements. I'm joined today by Jacek Olczak, Chief Executive Officer, and Emmanuel Babeau, Chief Financial Officer. Over to you, Jacek.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Thank you, James, and welcome everyone. We had a remarkable year for our smoke-free transformations in 2022. Despite the exceptional challenges of the war in Ukraine, severe supply chain disruptions, and global inflation, we delivered very strong financial performance and took two major strategic strides towards a smoke-free future. I would like to express my deepest thanks to all my colleagues who spared no effort to drive excellent business results during these unprecedented times. Our thoughts also continue to be with those affected by the war in Ukraine and the recent tragedy in Turkey and Syria. In 2022, PMI delivered its second consecutive year of total volume growth, reflecting continued IQOS progress and broadly stable cigarette volumes. Full-year smoke-free net revenues reached almost 1/3 of total PMI and over 50% in 70 markets.
This is impressive progress towards our ambition of becoming a predominantly smoke-free company by net revenues in 2025. IQOS outstanding results continued with over 21% full-year growth in both shipment volumes and in market sales, excluding Russia and Ukraine. This reflects broad-based momentum in the European Union region, Japan and emerging markets. IQOS ILUMA continues to generate excellent growth in its launch markets with upgrades from existing users and new user acquisition outperforming our initial expectations. The success is supported by the increasing deployment of a two-tier heated tobacco units portfolio, providing adult smokers with an expanding range of innovative and highly and high-quality alternatives to cigarettes.
In combustibles, we delivered a robust performance with a 3.7% growth in organic net revenues and 0.3 percentage points higher share of segment, excluding Russia and Ukraine, despite the impact of adult smokers moving to smoke-free products. We also achieved two critical strategic milestones this year, reaching an agreement to take full control of IQOS in the U.S. in 2024 and successfully completing the acquisition of Swedish Match. These achievements will accelerate our smoke-free journey and further position us to lead the transformation of the wider industry. Currency headwinds were extremely strong and weighed on our US dollar performance. Although volatility remains, I am pleased that they seem to significantly abate in 2023. 2022 was a pivotal year, and we look forward with confidence to 2023 and beyond.
Let me now take a moment to cover our key strategic priorities for the coming year. With the acquisition of Swedish Match and securing the rights to IQOS in the U.S. we are now a global smoke-free champion. The addition of the world's biggest market and the leading nicotine pouch brand ZYN, alongside IQOS, provides us with significant untapped opportunities to further accelerate the growth of smoke-free products. As the strength of our IQOS business continues to grow rapidly, the full global rollout of IQOS ILUMA is a major priority, and we expect to make substantial progress on this in 2023. The success of ILUMA in launch markets so far demonstrates the importance of groundbreaking consumer-centric innovation, and we continue to broaden our portfolio with new science-backed offerings. This includes BONDS by IQOS, our latest heat-not-burn device aimed at low- and middle-income adult smokers.
Pilot city launches in Colombia and the Philippines in the last quarter of last year show encouraging early results, and we intend to take the learnings from these markets before deploying on a wider scale. Following a successful first 3 years of partnership with KT&G, we also recently extended our long-term agreement to commercialize their innovative smoke-free portfolio outside South Korea. I am very pleased to welcome Swedish Match to the PMI family. In particular, the fast-growing potential of ZYN is an incredibly exciting addition to our company. We are focused on supporting the Swedish Match team to continue and accelerate ZYN's outstanding success in the U.S. while also leveraging PMI commercial capabilities to prepare for international expansion of nicotine pouches. IQOS and ZYN are premium brands leading their global categories. In the US, ZYN is helping American smokers leave cigarettes behind and offers great growth prospects.
For IQOS, the world's biggest smoke-free market is a fully untapped opportunity. Our plans are well underway in anticipation of our commercialization in Q2 of 2024. We will be leveraging the sales and distribution capabilities of Swedish Match and deploying our commercial model, digital engine, organization, and infrastructure for a successful rollout. We continue to expect to file an FDA application for ILUMA in the H2 of 2023. Logically, the international expansion of pouches, U.S. IQOS penetration, and replacement of IQOS free with ILUMA entail additional investments this year, which combined with inflationary pressure, will weigh temporarily on our margins. Indeed, many of the ILUMA-related costs are one-off in nature, as Emmanuel Babeau will explain shortly. In combustibles, we continue to target a stable category share over time despite the impact of IQOS cannibalization while taking judicious pricing actions.
As we have explained previously, maintaining our leadership in combustibles helps us maximize switching to smoke-free products through the connection to adult smokers and the retail trade. In terms of our financials, the strength of our business provides a robust operating cash flow, which we intend to maximize to provide reinvestment in our smoke-free business, deleveraging, and growing dividend. Finally and importantly, shaping tobacco harm reduction by providing better alternatives to smokers and advocating for science-based regulation is critical to accelerate the end of smoking. Harm reduction is also at the core of our transformation as we lead on sustainability to achieve a possible positive impact.
We will be expanding on some of these topics at the CAGNY conference on February 22nd, and we also plan to host an investor day in September this year, where we will go into greater detail on our strategies and future vision, particularly with regards to the U.S. I will hand it over to Emmanuel to discuss our results in 2023 and outlook in more detail.
Emmanuel Babeau (CFO)
Thank you, Jacek. Our business, driven by the strength of our innovative and expanding smoke-free portfolio, generated excellent top and bottom line 2022 growth despite a very difficult operating environment and currency headwinds. Our full-year net revenues grew organically by +7.7%, excluding Russia and Ukraine, and by +7.1% for total PMI, despite the impact of hyperinflationary accounting in Turkey. This reflects the continued strength of IQOS, accelerating pricing, and the recovery of combustible in many markets against a pandemic-affected comparison, notably in H1. IQOS devices accounted for approximately 5% of our full-year smoke-free net revenue, both including and excluding Russia and Ukraine.
Our net revenue per unit grew +4.4% organically, excluding Russia and Ukraine, and by +5.5% in total. This was driven by combustible pricing of +4% excluding Russia and Ukraine and +5% overall, and the positive mix impact of an increasing proportion of HTUs, heated tobacco unit, in our overall volumes at higher net revenue per unit. Our 2022 operating income margin contracted organically by 60 basis points excluding Russia and Ukraine and by 70 basis points in total due to a number of headwinds, which I will come back to. These headwinds were partially mitigated by the growth of IQOS, pricing and ongoing cost saving. In 2022, we delivered gross saving of $800 million with over $1.6 billion in the first two years of our cost efficiency program.
This puts us well on track to exceed our target of $2 billion over 2021, 2023 and mitigate recent inflationary pressures. Despite margin pressures, our excellent top line growth and diligent cost management enabled us to deliver currency neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of +11.9% to $5.34 excluding Russia and Ukraine. This includes unfavorable currency of $0.85 and a small contribution from Swedish Match net of financing costs for the 50 days of consolidated results. For total PMI, we delivered adjusted diluted EPS of $5.98. We also had a strong finish to the year. We delivered excellent Q4 organic net revenue growth of +7.9% excluding Russia and Ukraine, again reflecting continued strong IQOS performance and robust combustible pricing.
Our Q4 operating income margin expanded organically by 80 basis point excluding Russia and Ukraine, mainly due to a favorable comparison. On a total PMI basis, organic margin were flat, including the impact of a challenging comparison in Ukraine and shipment timing in Russia. Fourth quarter currency neutral adjusted diluted EPS grew by +20.8% to $1.23 excluding Russia and Ukraine, and +15.3% in total to $1.39, an excellent performance. Before discussing our 2023 guidance, I would like to provide an update on our Ukraine and Russia businesses. We continue to support our employees in Ukraine. I would like to personally thank them for their tremendous efforts to secure our business continuity during these extremely difficult times. In Russia, the environment for divestment has become increasingly challenging and complex, especially given recent December 2022 regulatory developments.
To provide more clarity to investors on the full extent of our business, we will now include both Ukraine and Russia in our 2023 outlook and reporting. Turning to the 2023 outlook. We expect to deliver very strong organic net revenue growth of +7% to +8.5%, supported by a step-up in combustible pricing and another year of rapid progress from IQOS. This would represent the third consecutive year of organic top line growth above +7% and excludes the impact of Swedish Match for the large majority of the year. Including Swedish Match, we expect our reported currency neutral net revenues to grow into the teens as its business continue to deliver strong performance. We expect excellent IQOS momentum to increase our HTU volume growth on a total PMI basis, supported by the growing presence of ILUMA across our key markets.
We forecast between 125 and 130 billion HTU shipment volumes, representing +15% to +19% growth. This reflect an acceleration compared to the total PMI growth rate in 2022, despite an expectation of no significant progress in Russia, given our decision to restrict investment and innovation. As mentioned previously, the pace of ILUMA launches has also been constrained by supply chain disruption and the outstanding take-up in initial launch markets. We expect this constraint to gradually improve through the first half as we progressively roll out to more geographies. We expect organic smoke-free net revenue growth to have an aligned progression with the rate of HTU volume growth this year, with less distortion from device revenues.
Including Swedish Match and at constant currency, we expect to deliver around $13.5 billion in smoke-free net revenue compared to $10 billion in 2022, and to approach 40% of total PMI net revenues this year. While our top line outlook is very strong, like many other global companies, we are facing significant margin pressures from the intensifying inflationary environment, in addition to a number of specific transitory factors and investments, which I will come back to shortly. As a result, we expect our adjusted operating income margin to contract between 50-150 basis points organically. Accordingly, we forecast currency neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of +7% to +9%. This includes a full year's positive contribution from Swedish Match, net of the related interest expense.
However, this benefit is offset by the increased interest cost on our non-Swedish Match debt and planned investment. This translates into an adjusted diluted EPS range of $6.25-$6.37, including $0.15 of unfavorable currency at prevailing rates. This forecast notably does not factor any potential favorable court ruling in Germany regarding the legality of the surcharge on the existing excise tax on heated tobacco product effective in Germany as of 2022. We continue to account for the excise surcharge in our result and outlook. However, the obligation to pay the surcharge is currently suspended. If favorable, the difference to our forecasted 2023 excise payments would increase our net revenue by around 1% and adjusted diluted EPS growth by around 3%, thereby increasing our forecast currency neutral growth range to +10% to +12%.
In this scenario, we would expect our operating cash flow would move towards the upper half of our forecast range. We expect a judgment toward the end of the year. There are a number of other assumptions underpinning our outlook. We expect total international industry volume of cigarette and heated tobacco unit, excluding China and the U.S. to decline by -1% to -2%. Given our leadership in smoke-free product and the growth of the category, we expect to gain share and target total PMI shipment volume to be flat to +1%, which would represent a third consecutive year of growth. While we seek to maintain our share of the combustible category, given the current inflationary environment, we assume combustible pricing will accelerate to around +6% on an organic basis compared to the +5% realized in 2022.
We also expect full-year capital expenditure of around $1.3 billion as compared to $1.1 billion in 2022, reflecting increased investment behind our smoke-free platform, including ILUMA and Swedish Match portfolio. Let me now come back to the various factors impacting our margins. In 2022, total PMI gross margin contracted by 220 basis points organically. While growing inflationary pressures were a drag, the largest impact came from the combination of the rapid growth of ILUMA and transitory factors such as supply chain disruption and the need to use air freight. ILUMA drove accelerated device replacement from existing user in Japan and other launch market. Such device sales are positive for acquisition, retention, and full conversion.
Devices are margin dilutive, and this dynamic is likely to continue on a temporary basis as we roll out to more markets this year and consumers upgrade from IQOS Blade. The initially higher weight and cost of ILUMA consumable also played a role, and this meant that the overall impact of our heat-not-burn business, including devices, was margin dilutive in 2022. Importantly, average gross margin on HTUs remained around 10 percentage points higher than for cigarettes on a higher net revenue per unit. This is a fundamental long-term positive margin driver through the growing HTU volume mix in our business, and this add a +110 basis point favorable impact in 2022. Our two other key long-term margin drivers of pricing and productivity also continue to contribute favorably.
Gross margin headwinds were mitigated at the operating income margin level by SG&A costs, which declined by 150 basis points of net revenues due primarily to cost efficiency, operating leverage, and comparison effect. The picture for 2023 is quite different. While our gross margin will face increased inflationary pressure, this is now primarily due to COGS for the cigarette business as leaf, acetate tow, salaries, and energy cost increase. An acceleration in combustible pricing and lower air freight costs will serve to mitigate this exceptional inflation. However, the timeline is built into our projections. Importantly, while cost inflation is also a headwind for IQOS, the 2023 margin impact of our heat-not-burn business is expected to be favorable due to the positive impact of increased HTU volume at higher net revenue per unit, planned ILUMA efficiency, and a more measured increase in device volumes.
Overall, these underlying strengths from IQOS combined with pricing will not be sufficient to offset combustible cost inflation in 2023. We expect a lower organic growth margin decline compared to last year and for our heat-not-burn business to have an increasingly visible positive impact as we approach 2024. 2023 SG&A costs will include incremental investment to drive future growth, including in the commercialization of ILUMA. Included is around $150 million with a broadly even split between the U.S., where we are preparing our organization capability for the launch of IQOS and wellness and healthcare investment in product development and clinical trials. In addition to inflation, this means an SG&A cost increase more in line with net revenue growth is likely with limited margin impact. A few words now on 2023 phasing.
We expect margin pressures to be weighted to the first half, particularly given a challenging Q1 2022 comparison and a progressive decrease in air freight costs throughout the year. In addition, investments are expected to be front-loaded, and we know that the rollout of ILUMA can lead to a short period of slower user acquisition as consumer wait for the launch. Combined with the timing of shipment and cost saving, we expect our 2023 top and bottom line delivery to be heavily H2 weighted. We expect the first quarter to be the most challenging, with low single-digit organic top line growth and soft margin. Shipment timing and ILUMA launch impact are expected to be pronounced, and we accordingly expect HTU shipment volume of around 26 billion-28 billion HTUs. We also face a comparison with a significantly lower impact from war-related disruption.
We forecast adjusted diluted EPS of $1.28 to $1.33, including $0.10 of unfavorable currency at prevailing rates. Importantly, we expect margin to improve as we approach 2024, as headwinds relent and the fundamental margin accretive driver of our smoke-free transformation continue in the form of heated tobacco unit growth, pricing, and cost optimization on ILUMA. Our cash flow generation remains strong. We delivered $10.8 billion in 2022 operating cash flows, representing +3% growth on a currency-neutral basis. This includes the favorable timing of certain financing item of around $0.3 billion. Given non-recurring item and working capital movement benefited 2021 by around $1 billion, this was an excellent result.
In 2023, we forecast $10 billion-$11 billion in operating cash flow, despite a notable expected impact from higher working capital requirements due to growth, global inflation, and the reversal of one-off timing benefits. This put us on track to deliver our 2021-2023 target of around $35 billion given in February 2021 at then prevailing rates. While our net debt is 2.9x adjusted EBITDA on the 12 months trailing basis, this reflects only 50 days of Swedish Match results, including a full year contribution for Swedish Match would clearly result in a lower ratio. We target robust EBITDA growth, which, combined with strong cash flow, allows us to focus on deleveraging while continuing to invest in innovation and the growth of our business.
In addition, our commitment to our progressive dividend policy is unwavering and in line with our long-term commitment to return cash to shareholders. Turning back to our 2022 results, both our HTU and in-market sales volume increased by around 21.5%, supporting total volume growth of +3.2%, excluding Russia and Ukraine. Q4 HTU shipment volume grew by +37.5%, partly reflecting the replenishment of inventory for ILUMA in Japan, following lower shipment earlier in the year and favorable shipment timing in the EU, notably in advance of new ILUMA launches. Supported by very solid cigarette performance, we delivered total volume growth for the second consecutive year, both including and excluding Russia and Ukraine. Focusing now on combustibles. Our portfolio delivered robust organic net revenue growth of +3.7% for the full year, excluding Russia and Ukraine.
Combustible pricing increased in H2 as we continue to adjust to the inflationary environment. This resulted in Q4 organic pricing of +4.8%, excluding Russia and Ukraine, and yielded full year pricing in line with our expectation, with notable contribution from Germany, the Philippines and Turkey, despite the impact of hyperinflationary accounting. In 2022, our share of the cigarette category increased by +0.3 percentage point, excluding Russia and Ukraine, following category share decline in 2020 and 2021, exacerbated by the pandemic. This includes sequential growth in every quarter of 2022. Marlboro remains extremely resilient, despite pressure on disposable income and the impact of high cost cannibalization, with +0.2 percentage point share of segment growth.
In addition, while we have not yet seen any meaningful acceleration in down trading, our share in the low price segment increased by +0.6 percentage point, excluding Russia and Ukraine. As Jacek mentioned earlier, maintaining our leadership in the cigarette category is a key enabler in accelerating smokers switching to better alternatives. Our robust cigarette share, combined with the growth of IQOS, delivered an overall market share gain of +0.6 point in 2022, excluding Russia and Ukraine. With notable contribution from Egypt, Italy, Japan and Poland. PMI heated tobacco unit continue to strengthen their position towards becoming the largest nicotine brand in markets where IQOS is present and reach the number two position in 2022 with a record high share of 8.5% in Q4.
Focusing on IQOS user growth, there was an estimated 20.3 million IQOS user as of December 31st, excluding Russia and Ukraine. This reflects growth of around +3.5 million for the full year. For total PMI, we estimate there were almost 25 million IQOS user as of year-end. Consistent with comments in our recent disclosure, user growth in October and November was slower due to higher than expected impact from Belarus commercial activity and lower acquisition for IQOS Blade product in anticipation of the launch of ILUMA in certain key market. We saw a strong rebound in December as ILUMA launches continued, delivering robust user growth of +0.8 million for the quarter. This was actually close to our initial expectation, we look forward with confidence to 2023 as ILUMA continues to be deployed.
ILUMA is driving volume and share growth across its market, supporting our strong position in the heat-not-burn category. We launched in eight new markets in Q4, including the Czech Republic, Italy, Portugal and South Korea, bringing the total to 16 market, with ILUMA launch now represent more than half of our total HTU volumes. ILUMA delivers a superior consumer experience as evidenced by Net Promoter Score, which on average increased by more than 10 points across its different market archetypes and higher conversion rate compared to IQOS DUO. While the rates of acceleration differ by market, in both Switzerland and the more recently launched United Arab Emirates, offtake share has almost doubled since launch. Importantly, as I mentioned earlier, the benefit of scale and optimization should allow us to bring down the cost of ILUMA over time, starting in the H2 of 2023.
Focusing now on the European Union, where smoke-free net revenue exceeded 40% of the region for the full year. Our Q4 HTU share increased by +2.4 points to reach 8.8% of total cigarette and HTU industry volume with a modest flattering effect from timing factors. IMS volume continued to grow sequentially and reach a record high of 9.3 billion unit on the fourth quarter moving average. This reflects success across many markets and TCTs, including Vilnius, with over 43% share, as well as Athens and Rome with over 25%. In Japan, the heat-not-burn category now represent close to 35% of total tobacco, with IQOS increasingly driving its growth.
In Q4, the adjusted total tobacco share for our HTU brands increased by +2.6 points to 24.5%, with offtake share in Tokyo surpassing 30%. Our two-tier consumable portfolio continued to deliver strong results. IMS again grew sequentially to reach a record high of 8.8 billion units on the four-quarter moving average as the number of Japanese IQOS user crossed a remarkable 7.5 million adult consumers. In addition to strong IQOS gain in developed markets, we continue to see very promising growth in low and middle-income markets. In 2022, our HTU shipments grew by almost 50%, excluding Russia and Ukraine. This robust performance reflects success across many markets, including Egypt, where Urban Cairo offtake share surpassed 7%. Bulgaria and Malaysia, where Q4 offtake share reached 14% in both capital cities.
Let's now move on to Swedish Match, which finished the year strongly, further confirming our belief that this combination will be accretive to our growth and margin profile over the coming years. Please note for housekeeping purposes that my comments on Swedish Match financial results are based on publicly available information through September 30th and from November 11th when it was consolidated in PMI's financial statement. Swedish Match delivered excellent performance following the acquisition with strong net revenue and adjusted operating income. Most impressive was the phenomenal U.S. growth of Zyn, which I will come back to on the next slide. In other U.S. smoke-free product, moist snuff also performed well, gaining almost 1 percentage point share of segment and growing 2022 volume within a declining category.
In Scandinavia, the overall smoke-free market and Swedish Match continued to grow, albeit helped by year-end trade inventory movement ahead of a January excise tax increase in Sweden. The cigar business delivered robust performance to end a challenging year with growth in volume and category share. We are very pleased with the strong 2022 result from Swedish Match, which also included positive pricing across all smoke-free category. We look forward to reporting our combined results going forward. Now, let's discuss ZYN's recent U.S. performance in more detail. Excellent progress continues with shipment volume growth of +37% in 2022 and +35% in Q4, reaching a record quarterly high.
ZYN's category volume share grew sequentially by 1 percentage point compared to the Q3 and by 2.2 percentage point compared to the prior year, further strengthening its position as a clear number 1 nicotine pouch brand, despite continued heavy competitive discounting from less premium offering. Importantly, retail value share for ZYN remains strong at 75.7%, highlighting its premium positioning and high brand equity. 2023 promises to be a very exciting year. We are thrilled to have welcomed Swedish Match employee and leading oral nicotine portfolio into the PMI family to create a global smoke-free champion. We will work together to create value as we accelerate toward our shared vision of a smoke-free future.
In particular, bringing ZYN and IQOS together in both the U.S. and international markets present a significant opportunity to drive accelerated growth and switching of adult smoker to better alternative. As a well-run and successful business, we expect continued strong performance from Swedish Match existing operation. A key focus this year will be supporting and further driving strong ZYN growth in the U.S. In addition, we are now preparing for the international expansion of nicotine pouches, leveraging Swedish Match rich product portfolio and PMI's extensive smoke-free commercial infrastructure. In parallel, we'll be actively enhancing Swedish Match U.S. distribution and commercial capabilities for the launch of IQOS in 2024. Moving now to sustainability. As we transform our company, our business and sustainability strategy are advancing hand in hand with increasing momentum. PMI and Swedish Match have a shared vision and values.
Combination helps us further accelerate toward achieving our purpose, transforming for good to make cigarettes obsolete and maximize the benefit of smoke-free products. Our goal for best-in-class ESG performance is aligned as we seek to address the environmental impact of our product, eradicate child labor, reduce our carbon footprint, and provide a more inclusive and empowered working environment for all our employees. In December, we published a standalone report detailing our new biodiversity and water ambitions. For biodiversity, we aim to achieve no net loss on ecosystem connected to our value chain by 2033 and contribute towards a net positive impact on nature by 2050. For water stewardship, we aim to scale solutions toward a positive impact on water resources by 2033 and contribute toward a positive impact on water resources by 2050.
I am also proud to share that for the third consecutive year, we have been awarded CDP's Triple A. CDP scored nearly 15,000 company on their climate change, forest, and water security disclosures, of which only 12 received this prestigious score. In addition, I am excited to share that we are included in the 2023 Bloomberg Gender-Equality Index for the third year running. I'll now turning back to Jacek for concluding remarks.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Thank you, Emmanuel. Overall, our business delivered over strong Q4 and full-year performance despite many challenging headwinds. We achieved excellent top and bottom line growth with double-digit currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth and almost $6 of adjusted EPS for total PMI. The consistent quality and sustainability of our organic top and bottom line delivery has been clearly demonstrated over the last 3 years. Most impressive was the continued outstanding performance of IQOS, which is now complemented by the remarkable growth of ZYN. Combined with Swedish Match, we have a comprehensive global smoke-free portfolio with leadership positions in heat-not-burn and the fastest-growing category of oral nicotine. We expect 2023 to be a landmark year for our smoke-free transformation with smoke-free net revenues of around thirteen and a half billion dollars at constant currency, approaching 40% of our company.
We have exciting opportunities for growing nicotine pouches in the U.S. and internationally, along with the U.S. commercialization of IQOS next year. We expect margin headwinds will persist in 2023 before improving in 2024. Our underlying growth fundamentals remain strong, and we look forward with confidence. With an excellent performance over the past 2 years and our strong 2023 outlook, we expect to comfortably exceed our 3-year minimum CAGR targets of more than 5% organic net revenue growth, more than 9% in currency neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth, and broadly stable shipment volumes. Our strong growth outlook and highly cash generative business enables us to deleverage while maintaining our steadfast commitment to our progressive dividend policy. Thank you for your attention. Emmanuel and I will be happy now to answer your questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now conduct the question-and-answer portion of the conference. Again, in order to ask a question or make a comment, please press the star key followed by one on your touch tone phone. In the interest of fairness and time, we ask that participants keep to a maximum of two questions each. If time allows, follow-up questions may be taken. You may rejoin the queue again by pressing star then one on your touch tone phone. We'll take our first question from Chris Growe with Stifel.
Chris Growe (Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, good morning.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Good morning.
Emmanuel Babeau (CFO)
Hi, Chris.
Chris Growe (Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst)
Good morning. I want to ask you, first of all, you give some great color there and detail in your remarks. As I look at the EPS growth in 2023, just understand some of the burdens on that growth. We know about $150 million of investment you've outlined for the U.S. and your health and wellness division. What other costs do you foresee and some of these supply chain costs and use of airfreight, for example, how much are those burdening your costs for the year? If you can give some color on that.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Yeah. Maybe I start, then Emmanuel will chip in, I guess. Yes. It's $115 million between the U.S. and the wellness healthcare, almost evenly spread between the two. You have the airfreight, and this is more of the thing which I think we should start seeing some improvement in 2023, and especially as we go towards the second half of the year. I think we should start normalize the use of the airfreight, which will then obviously continue through the 2024. You have the inflationary pressure on the COGS. I think Emmanuel mentioned in his remarks the leaf. Leaf obviously is the, you know, due to our duration of inventories of the leaf and the way you know, the leaf prices are rolling through the P&L.
That's something which, you know, lasts usually longer. You know, you have 3 years about the duration of inventory. On a moving average valuation, similarly that spreads over the period of time. You have energy, which is obviously the big hit across the number, directly or indirectly through the materials. Now we start seeing energy prices easing at least at this stage, but also you're binded by some contractual arrangements, et cetera. I don't think that's gonna help in the 2023, but I remain cautiously optimistic that as of 2024, we should start seeing reversal of those. Obviously, you have a cost of the IQOS ILUMA rollout, right? We are at the year-end, we've been at the 16 markets out of 73 markets, total IQOS.
There is a bulk of the markets in front of us in 2023, and we don't want to stop or slow down the rollout of ILUMA. Obviously, you have a pressure on the margin coming from the extra sales of the devices, right? Which obviously are the drag on the margins and with essentially accelerating replacement of the devices at the existing consumers level. With the very clear view now that we have a very nice payback going forward with the accelerated acquisition, better consumption, better conversion rates. That's the key items. Emmanuel, you may miss something important.
Emmanuel Babeau (CFO)
No, I think you were very exhaustive, clearly, Jacek. Just a couple of, you know, further detail. Clearly in 2023, we've been flagging it. We expect our heat-not-burn business to contribute positively at the level of the gross margin rate evolution. In 2023, it's really inflation impacting us very negatively at the level of all cost of goods, but on combustible, we're gonna increase price, but it's not gonna be sufficient to offset this impact. Just to give you a color, Jacek was alluding to energy price. We're not talking about, you know, even double-digit inflation. I mean, energy price between 2023 and 2021, we are talking about, you know, close to a 3x factor. It's a big increase with a big impact on the P&L.
Over time, with price increase, we're going to overcome that. There is just a lag, as we said, on matching that. There is a big difference also on our SG&A cost evolution. In 2022, we were flat because we've been generating a lot of efficiencies. Inflation was not as hard as it's gonna be in 2023 with a lot of salary increase. Probably the basis of comparison were more favorable. In 2023, we expect to grow our SG&A in line with top line more or less, which, you know, one would expect. We continue to invest a lot in order to support the growth of the business, to acquire new user, digital investment. We talk about the U.S. and wellness and healthcare.
There will still be efficiency, but not at the same level. Last element that I have to add, the cost of the debt. I'm not talking about the debt of acquisition of Swedish Match, because for Swedish Match, we are in line with expectation, i.e., a low single-digit accretion on the EPS. Clearly for the existing debt, there is also an increase in the cost, and that is having an impact on the evolution of the adjusted EPS. I think with that, Chris, we are giving all the information we can on what we are facing in term of evolution on our cost.
Chris Growe (Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst)
That was sure exhaustive. Thank you for that. It was very, very helpful. I had just one quick follow-up, which would be that, you have heated tobacco unit growth of expectation of that 15%-19%. I just wanna get an understanding on two facets of that. Is Russia-Ukraine down likely in 2023, given you're not investing there? Just to what degree it's capacity limited today. You know, if you had more ILUMA capacity, could that grow even faster? Thank you for your time.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Actually to the Russia and Ukraine, and obviously Russia due to its weight even more, they were a drag on our performance, both in 2022 and as, and will be, as far to as, you know, be a drag in 2023. As you know, as our decision, strong decisions today invest and essentially, you know, ILUMA, for example, is the key, you know, technology advancements which we'll have, which we decided not to roll out in Russia, has an impact, right? That, you know, the numbers which we now just for the, you know, visibility to the investors of the business as is today, we're including Russia and Ukraine, but they're both are very much Russia not contributing to the growth.
One could think opposite, you know, excluding Russia and Ukraine, our growth rates would be at the, at the higher level, on a comparable level. Capacity, we will, I think we have. We're guiding the market that we expect the better results in H2 of the year, and that's partially reflects the moment when we think we will be beyond the bottleneck with regards to the capacity around ILUMA. We really managing the business on a very tight supply chain through still this year. Sorry, 2022, and for H1 of 2023. The H2 of 2023, we should be okay.
That's, again, the, you know, I can bridge back to the famous air freight, et cetera, because all of these things are consequences of us running on a very, very tight supplies.
Chris Growe (Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst)
Yep, that makes sense. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
We'll take our next question from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.
Bonnie Herzog (Managing Director, Senior Consumer Analyst)
All right. Thanks. Hi.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Good morning, Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog (Managing Director, Senior Consumer Analyst)
Good morning.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Hi, Bonnie.
Bonnie Herzog (Managing Director, Senior Consumer Analyst)
I guess my first question is on your Op margin guidance and the implied deleverage. You know, maybe you could break down the headwinds you highlighted just a bit further and, you know, thinking about in the context of what you can control, like the investments you're making to drive future growth. Could you help frame that for us? You know, just trying to think through how big of a step-up the investments will be this year versus last year. How do we think about the investments required next year and beyond? I guess, you know, I'm trying to get a sense of how much of the investment's required to, you know, essentially roll out IQOS in the U.S., you know, will take place this year versus next year.
I'm well aware of the investments you need to roll out ILUMA, but anything there would be helpful.
Emmanuel Babeau (CFO)
I'l take that one, Bonnie. I think on the U.S., we've been clear on the fact that we expect something like half of $950 million, of course it's a rounding, of extra investment in the U.S. as we prepare the launch of IQOS in the U.S. That is for 2023. When we have a plan for the coming years and, of course, with more detail, we'll of course come to you and elaborate and detail that. For the rest of the business, I think we are, and that was the sense of my comment on SG&A evolution.
On a relatively regular basis, we are investing an extra $ few hundred million, and please allow me not to be more specific because, of course, that is sensitive information, behind the acceleration of IQOS, and it's gonna come, of course, behind IQOS ILUMA in 2023. The growth, you know, when we say we expect SG&A to grow broadly in line with top line, there is a huge impact of inflation. I mean, I don't need to explain that inflation is, in most country, around high single digit, and we need to reflect that on salary increase. We have efficiency on cost in front of that, and that is enabling us to, on top of the inflation impact, to keep investing on the growth of the business.
We do that in a rather consistent manner, of course, very much focused, behind ILUMA in 2023.
Bonnie Herzog (Managing Director, Senior Consumer Analyst)
Okay, that's helpful. Just a second question, if I may. It's just related to, you know, the user growth in Q4 on IQOS. Could you maybe talk through some of the puts and takes that you saw in the quarter? I mean, it seemed to accelerate relative to Q3 despite, you know, some of the headwinds you had, you know, recently highlighted. You did mention that ILUMA drives higher conversion rates than IQOS 3 DUO. Could you possibly quantify that for us? I guess I'm trying to think through, you know, when that platform scales, do you expect your overall, you know, conversion to grow meaningfully, possibly above your current 70% rate?
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Yeah. I maybe take it. ILUMA conversion rates in the markets at this stage versus a run rate conversion rates before the IQOS Blade will be somewhere up in the range of 10 percentage points. Okay? Obviously different markets, there is some difference between the markets, but the rule of thumb is about the 10 percentage points, which essentially means. The way we measure conversion that 10% of the devices sold through acquisition of new users are in the use and they should on the ad generating the recurring demand for the consumables. This also has a better productivity on the user acquisitions and the devices sold. I want to just bridge back to your previous question, Bonnie, if you allow me.
We look at the U.S. investment, we highlighted, you know, including the wellness healthcare, about $150 million. We shouldn't just look at the investment from the lenses of IQOS, because part of the investment which we already start, what we committed to make this year, I believe will also benefit further growth opportunity for ZYN, okay, for Swedish Match. It's not that we're really running this as a two separate type of a businesses. We try to look at this from the leveraging and further enhancing the capabilities of Swedish Match, and I believe the opportunities for ZYN in the U.S., you know, they had a spectacular of phenomenal growth. Depends which adjective you like better, but I think there is more to come on this one.
The way we're looking allocating the resources that it is not just gonna, you know, prepare us for the IQOS takeback in 2024, but also in the meantime can be a further boost to the ZYN. To your question also about the future rollout of IQOS alone in the U.S. I think, you know, September when we met, I hope during the investors day, we will be in a position to give a more precise plans. We obviously take into considerations the expected timelines vis-à-vis from FDA.
Bonnie Herzog (Managing Director, Senior Consumer Analyst)
Mm-hmm.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
We said that we're gonna file IQOS ILUMA, which is the best flagship and the best propositions we have today. Obviously our objective, prime objective would be to enter markets, U.S. markets with the very big, you know, momentum coming from international on the best what we have. I think by September this year, we should have more details and more visibility about this one.
Bonnie Herzog (Managing Director, Senior Consumer Analyst)
Okay, that's super helpful. I appreciate it.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Thank you, Bonnie.
Emmanuel Babeau (CFO)
Thank you, Bonnie.
Operator (participant)
We'll take our next question from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.
Gaurav Jain (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hi. Good morning. A couple of questions.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Hi, Gaurav.
Gaurav Jain (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, hi, Emmanuel. You know, the first is on the step-up in cigarette pricing. It was 5% last year. You are saying it will be 6% in FY 2023. Japan had 5% pricing last year. This year it will be 0. Clearly ex-Japan cigarette pricing is accelerating from 4%-7% approximately. Where exactly is this biggest step-up happening in cigarette pricing?
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Japan, you're pretty good in a single out Japan in this case, right? It's the biggest in a pricing from the unknown, right? It's difficult to make any assumptions on Japan. We have already this year working pretty well with the good results on the reversing the pricing trend in Indonesia, as you may recall. I believe we really turned the corner in Indonesia, which always due to volume underlying size of the, and the weight of the business to us is very important. I think we have a stronger Philippines, plus the European markets also come with a strong pricing. That 6% which we assume in the, you know, for this year is just a reflection of this. Depends what's happened in Japan. I mean, all of these things will be coming on the top.
Actually, Japan from the large geographies is the only market when the visibility for obvious reasons is very limited.
Gaurav Jain (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Sure. Thank you. On this EU heated tobacco flavor ban, which is expected to come later this year, how should we think about it, and how is it factored in your guidance?
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
I mean, it's one of the events which, you know, nobody ever experienced. We have some sort of a similarities with the flavor bans, including menthol and the combustible cigarettes, you may recall, the few years ago. Frankly speaking, it has not had any material sort of impact on the cigarette volume. I think here, okay, we'll see what's gonna happen. We think it's gonna be manageable.
Gaurav Jain (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Sure. Thank you so much.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Thank you, Gaurav.
Emmanuel Babeau (CFO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
We'll take our next question from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.
Pamela Kaufman (Executive Director, Equity Analyst)
Hi. Good morning.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Hi, Pam. Good morning.
Emmanuel Babeau (CFO)
Good morning, Pam.
Pamela Kaufman (Executive Director, Equity Analyst)
Can you discuss your strategy for the U.S. market this year, for Swedish Match and what your key priorities are? What are your plans for the international rollout of ZYN and the timeline?
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Yeah. Obviously, you know, the focus is to continue and enhance the spectacular momentum of, you know, pouches ZYN growth in the U.S. I mentioned this before answering another question that, you know, part of the investment we are allocating to U.S., I believe also will benefit the current business of Swedish Match. I think there should be better pricing, especially on the cigar business, although it is not really our strategic focus, but still obviously helps the overall business performance.
The strategy in terms of the long-term, you know, the big question obviously is, you know, how we will approach IQOS commercialization the moment when we fully take it back in 2024. You know, we know what sort of infrastructure capabilities are missing at the Swedish Match level, so we're adding them. But the real big commercial spend, I mean, it will depend on the timing and the intensity of our rollout plans, which, you know, we will share, I guess, around September during the investors September this year around the investors day. When it comes to the pouches on international, I think, you know, Swedish Match and us now together, you know, have a, you know, plans how to start addressing some share pressure, especially in the Nordics, okay?
On the bigger international scale, we have quite a few markets which we will start rolling out the pouches this year. For obvious reasons, I will not mention which markets. There was the whole purpose of, you know, acquisition of Swedish Match, as you recall, leverage the, the base and of growth opportunity in the US. It's the, you know, it's a huge relief in a sense of a preparedness for IQOS. Also I believe the category has the quite the potential in the RR, in the reduce-risk product space on international basis. We have infrastructure in most of the markets. It's, you know, I'm not releasing, really f- disclosing any, you know, strategy confidential matters. Obviously, IQOS is present in 70-plus markets.
This is where the developed, infrastructure is most developed, and very likely the markets for ZYN products will be within the list of these markets.
Pamela Kaufman (Executive Director, Equity Analyst)
Thanks. Can you just talk about your strategy with the Bonds product that you launched in test markets and what your early observations are? How are you thinking about a broader rollout over time?
I mean, the broader rollout of the Bonds is more strategically planned for 2024, so the next year. We will have some volume, but, you know, nothing compared, to be very frank, to what we have about the IQOS and ILUMA product. This is by far the prime focus. I think the early results which we'll get from the Philippines and Colombia, I mean, they're very strong. Actually, they're very strong. Obviously, you know, our expectations after 7 or so years of experience with IQOS products are much higher than we ever had, so Bonds have to come and meet that expectations as well.
The proposition, essentially, we knew that, you know, the moment when we'll be going more into the emerging markets, lower income, when the consumer affordability, you know, might be at a bottleneck in achieving our, you know, smoke-free ambitions, we had to also come up with a technology both on the consumables and on the device which somehow adjust the cost of the propositions to the potential pricing we can offer to the market. Obviously the focus will be on the emerging markets, but I do believe that that proposition also, nicely, will help in some developed economies because, you know, across the spectrum of the smokers audience, obviously there are also a group of people for whom the affordability might create some constraints.
That will be a very nice complementary propositions in our portfolio. Essentially, it also helps IQOS to continue on its, you know, extremely successful history of occupying this premium or medium-plus space. This is this mega brand which we're trying to build while preparing ourself that, you know, billion-plus smokers in the world, I mean, they're going across the different various price segments from the premium mid, low, super low, et cetera, and we need to provide the relevant propositions there. I think Bonds is on the track, and this is how we're gonna play strategically in the portfolio.
Thank you. That's very helpful.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Thank you, Pam. Thank you.
Emmanuel Babeau (CFO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
We'll take our next question from Vivien Azer with Cowen.
Vivien Azer (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)
Thank you. Good morning.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Vivian.
Vivien Azer (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)
I was hoping to talk. Hey. I was hoping to talk about the IQOS outlook, please, in terms of the sticks, and in particular, what impact is the removal of characterizing flavors on HTUs in the EU impacting your outlook? How are you accounting for that, and what's the expected timing of that, please? Thank you.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Yeah, I partially answered that question before, Vivien, but, you know, the characterizing flavor, you know, we had an experience with the cigarettes, combustible cigarettes in the past, and it's the only, you know, reference point we have today. You know, as you recall, you know, the menthol and others ban in Europe didn't really impact in any material way the volumes of the cigarettes. I think here, you know, one can expect the similar sort of manageable impact, if you like, of that ban. The second thing, it's worth also reminding everyone that IQOS by far today is the best tobacco flavor proposition.
Yes, there are some flavors which we have in our portfolio in the market that proportions might be different, but by far, IQOS on the pure tobacco flavor, and this is by the way, where the bulk of the cigarette market, rests in essentially all geographies. This is an IQOS strength. There is a portion of a portfolio which will be impacted. You know, I think for the vast majority of the smokers, existing, sorry, existing converted to IQOS users and the smokers which are still on a combustible, I mean, IQOS still offers today best-in-class taste and a flavor experience, which is in the core of the tobacco flavor.
Vivien Azer (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)
Thank you for that. I apologize if I missed this, but, is there any way that you can provide an update on kind of the infrastructure build-out, for IQOS in the U.S. ahead of your reacquiring the commercial rights to that proposition, both in terms of the consumables as well as the devices? Thank you.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
I think there is, look, there is a, you know, we're looking also, well, we're also looking at this not only on IQOS on a stand-alone basis, but IQOS and the ZYN and other parts of the Swedish Match business. I believe, you know, the obvious questions of the optimal distribution, and I believe this can pair very well. Any enhancements already to the distribution serves not only in a future IQOS, but, you know, can and will serve actually ZYN growth opportunities today. There is the whole digital aspect. There is, you know, a better management of the pricing, promotions, the whole consumer piece, right, which is so strong behind an IQOS success. I mean, that's the something which we are preparing the infrastructure for.
Vivien Azer (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, thank you.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
We'll take our next question from Owen Bennett with Jefferies.
Owen Bennett (SVP, Equity Research)
Afternoon, gents. Hope all well.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Afternoon, Owen.
Owen Bennett (SVP, Equity Research)
Yeah, my question is more a bigger picture, longer-term one around the US and the overall RRP space now you've got control of your own destiny. I was hoping to get your thoughts on how you see RRP overall develop longer term across the different categories, whether you see some more attractive than others, and do you still think heated can be sizable when reintroduced into the US, obviously bearing in mind the limited traction it got with Altria? Then just linked to these US RRP plans, any update on timing for a PMTA submission with your vape product? Thank you.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Yeah. I start with the last one. We plan to submit IQOS ILUMA to PMTA to FDA in the second half of this year. Now with regards to the... Look, we think that the IQOS strength, which is really if you go to the core of the smokers today, when they really, you know, enjoy this pure, unaffected by any flavors, et cetera, tobacco flavor and so on, is undisputed. Every market you go, IQOS exactly delivers on the flavor taste expectations to this audience. That's also, I believe, a critical factor in IQOS high conversion rate and how many people fully adopt IQOS. Not only that they're leaving cigarettes fully behind them, they don't even attempt it on occasional basis to go back to cigarettes, okay?
That's the core, and I believe for the audience, which with the smoking audience, which we have in the U.S., IQOS perfectly fits into this whole thing. Obviously, the other platforms which offer you the different ritual, different experience, the e-cigarettes and the pouches. You know, e-cigarettes usually are, you know, more driven by the flavors. Obviously, absence the pure tobacco, natural type of a flavor, that's the challenge, which partially, in our opinion, is behind the more of the dual consumption than the full conversion. Also, you know, the products are, you know, under development, that they're getting better.
Pouches actually on the risk continuum of the product, I mean, it's another, you know, important offering for the consumers who really want to, you know, reduce significantly, you know, exposure and potentially the harm by, while, you know, while enjoying the product. I think there is this complementary role of each of these platforms. We, you know also that we're working on our platform forward with Ernali, which is a VEEV and the VEEV products, the electronic cigarette segment going through its own dynamics. It's this mix of the flavors, disposable, et cetera. It's not necessarily great for the economics, but partially also because of this lower conversion rate compared to the other platforms. We have said it from the very beginning of our transformations.
If you follow us seven, eight years ago, I recall at one of the first investors conferences when we announced the, you know, the purpose that we want to go smoke-free, we have said that there is the room for every platform at the different moments for different consumers. Our job is at the right time to deploy these platforms and the leverage, the opportunities and the benefit to the smoker.
Owen Bennett (SVP, Equity Research)
Great. Thanks, Jacek. Just, sorry, to follow up, the question on the PMTA was not for ILUMA. I think previously for VEEV, you'd said you targeted first half of 2023. Just any update on a VEEV PMTA submission?
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Yeah. I think we're also thinking about the 2023, now having also the ZYN and knowing what ILUMA can do and knowing the P4, we also need to, you know, make sure that we have the right PMTA submission strategy, right? An effort behind each of them, and we need to prioritize. I mean, we are thinking, well. It's more than a thinking. We're working on bringing our P4 to the U.S. as well.
James Bushnell (VP of Investor Relations and Financial Communications)
Great. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Thank you, Owen.
Operator (participant)
We'll take our next question from Andrei Condrea with UBS.
Andrei Condrea (Analyst)
Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. Just one from me, please.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Hi, Andrei.
Andrei Condrea (Analyst)
Hi. Sticking to U.S. IQOS, we know that the U.S. menthol ban from the FDA proposed standards allows, potentially will allow for some exceptions to it. Thinking that your IQOS has the MRTP designation, which is rather unique versus all its peers, were you factoring this in when you set out your ambition of, I believe, 10% market share by 2030, if I'm not mistaken?
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Yeah, I think you're quoting my words. This is Jacek here. Yeah, I still do believe that IQOS by 2030, and knowing how it performs on the many other international markets, the 10% is not out of, you know... It can be a realistic ambitious ambition or a realistic dream. Now, to be very frank, when we look into this, we have not been trying to factor in that there might be some flavors or menthol bans on other products. You rightly, you know, noticed that IQOS today is two variants of IQOS authorized with the menthol, the menthol flavor. Will this be an accelerating factor or not?
I mean, the future will tell, but, I still believe that IQOS as is in a current environment, due to its strength and the satisfactions it gives to smokers, et cetera, has the, you know, that big potential in from the process.
Andrei Condrea (Analyst)
I see. Very clear. Thank you.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Thank you, Andrei.
Operator (participant)
We'll take our last question from Jared Dinges with JPMorgan.
Jared Dinges (Analyst)
Yeah, thanks. Hi, guys.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Thank you. Hi.
Jared Dinges (Analyst)
A couple from me, please. First, given the CapEx step-up in CapEx that you expect for this year, I just wanted to ask, how should we be thinking about CapEx levels beyond 2023? Is next year kind of a one-off given the ZYN international expansion plans?
Emmanuel Babeau (CFO)
I think you should expect us, of course, to accompany the growth. We are growing volume, we need more capacity, the CapEx will reflect that. There is certainly, when it comes to ILUMA, a moment where we build the capacity for ILUMA, and that is translating into a significant investment. You see that in the $1.3. I would say we are going to certainly regularly invest on the capacity for the Swedish Match oral business. I'm not able yet at that stage, you know, I'm not giving guidance on 2024. I certainly believe that there is this transition moment where we are building the capacity on ILUMA. You know, of course, that will be accompanying the growth of ILUMA.
We are very ambitious, as you know, on growing oral product. That will come with investment. Of course, they are not of the same magnitude as the one that we've been making in order to build the capacity on IQOS. Smaller volume, smaller base, so not with the same impact on the long term anyway.
Jared Dinges (Analyst)
Got it. That's clear. For the second one, maybe just on the healthcare and wellness segment, you know, 2023 will be another investment year. I know you guys have talked about that probably being a multi-year investment cycle. I don't know if you can give any indication on when you think that business could potentially start to contribute to growth. Maybe also could you guys talk about your learnings so far in those businesses that you've have acquired?
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
I mean, look, they've obviously and been very clear about this from the very beginning. I mean, in order to develop and bring to the market on a couple of the programs or products which we have in mind, I mean, I have to go for the investment. We talked about Asprey Health. We also have a very promising investment in a medical or in a medical space of cannabinoids, et cetera. All of these programs, you know, the agreed established milestones in terms of the, you know, the development of these products, including the, you know, the series of clinicals and, you know, meeting the different regulatory expectations. That's about what's gonna be. We have set a historically ambitious target of achieving this $1 billion revenue by 2025.
There is a pipeline of the product, but, you know, the more interesting actually is, you know, what's gonna happen with the business beyond 25 because it's a longer term, longer term investment. Obviously, when we allocate the capital, we look, first, you know, we allocate the capital behind those things which are in the near and the midterm for us, and it's obviously heat-not-burns and IQOS ILUMA expansions to the U.S., and I can go through the long list of an opportunities, but they're keeping also the eye that this business is covered. The wellness and healthcare offers us very interesting opportunities in the longer run, when we very well leverage both our scientific life science expertise capabilities combined with the commercial, et cetera. So this is how I would look on this thing.
I think when we meet on the, you know, September of this year for the Investors Day, we'll start, you know, obviously opening a much more longer-term horizon how the management, how we see the future of PMI, not just in the next year or 2, but with a longer time of a perspective. This is the moment when I guess we will share, more details. By the way, also, I think we'll be able to answer more precisely your first questions to Emmanuel about the CapEx. Because obviously, if we open a 10-year horizon for Philip Morris, we'll have to touch up on, that capital allocation component as well.
Operator (participant)
Great. That's helpful. Thank you.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Thank you.
James Bushnell (VP of Investor Relations and Financial Communications)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
It appears we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the program back over to management for any additional or closing remarks.
James Bushnell (VP of Investor Relations and Financial Communications)
Thank you. Before closing our call, I would like to remind you that we'll be presenting at the CAGNY Conference on February 22nd. As we mentioned earlier, we plan to host the September Investor Day in Switzerland. We hope you will be able to join these events either in person or virtually. That concludes our call today. Thank you again for joining us. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact the investor relations team. Thanks.
Jacek Olczak (CEO)
Thank you. Talk to you soon.
James Bushnell (VP of Investor Relations and Financial Communications)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
That concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.