PM Q2 2025: ZYN offtake +36% drives held 800–840M can shipment guide
- Robust ZYN Momentum: Q&A comments highlighted 36%–37% consumer offtake growth for ZYN in June/early July, underscoring a strong rebound in sales following improved product availability and marketing efforts.
- Enhanced Supply Capacity: Management noted that current production capacity is well positioned to handle dynamic demand, ensuring that even with supply chain adjustments, the company can meet the full-year shipment guidance of 800–840 million cans.
- Potential Regulatory Tailwinds: Early indications from the EU proposals feature differentiated minimum taxation that favors smoke free products over combustibles, which could further bolster the competitive positioning of the company’s smoke free portfolio.
- Supply Chain & Inventory Concerns: Lower than expected ZYN restocking (roughly €10–20 million fewer cans than anticipated) signals potential supply chain imbalances that could challenge the brand’s near-term momentum.
- Regulatory Uncertainty: Continued uncertainty regarding the PMTA for IQOS ILUMA—with a possibility of delays into 2026—presents a risk to capturing expected US market growth.
- Foreign Exchange Headwinds: Volatility in the Swiss franc has caused notable negative impacts (e.g. around €0.10 estimated adverse effect) on earnings, offsetting benefits from a weakening dollar.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +7.1% | Robust growth driven by improvements in pricing and volume, notably in the smoke-free segments, which helped lift revenue from $9,468 million to $10,140 million, reflecting strong underlying performance relative to the previous period. |
Combustible Tobacco Revenue | +2.1% | Modest increase from $5,858 million to $5,979 million, attributed to continued pricing strength and slight volume improvements despite a competitive environment, similar to past trends seen in previous periods. |
Smoke-Free Products Revenue | +15.3% | Significant surge from $3,610 million to $4,161 million, driven largely by the robust performance of smoke-free products as consumers increasingly shift away from combustible options, reflecting momentum that built on prior period gains. |
Smoke-Free excl. Wellness | +16.3% | Growth from $3,530 million to $4,104 million is due to strong consumer adoption and favorable pricing/mix improvements in smoke-free products, highlighting an accelerated trend compared to previous periods. |
Wellness and Healthcare | -28.8% | Sharp decline from $80 million to $57 million, likely caused by strategic restructuring and divestitures that reduced the segment’s contribution compared to earlier periods. |
Europe | +11% | Revenue increased from $3,815 million to $4,234 million due to higher pricing and improved volume/mix, particularly from key segments like HTUs in Europe, building on the growth momentum observed in the prior period. |
SSEA, CIS & MEA | +5.6% | The rise from $2,771 million to $2,926 million reflects balanced regional improvements through favorable pricing and volume/mix, continuing a moderate growth trajectory compared to the previous period. |
Americas | +12.6% | An increase from $1,129 million to $1,272 million is largely driven by strong growth in smoke-free product volumes such as nicotine pouches and HTUs, indicating a clear shift in consumer preference compared to prior periods. |
EA, AU & PMI GTR | +2.1% | A modest increase from $1,673 million to $1,708 million suggests a plateauing performance in these markets, where incremental volume and pricing gains are more limited relative to earlier periods. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth (%) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | +13% to +15% in dollar terms, including an estimated €0.10 favorable currency impact. Excluding currency impact: +11.5% to +13.5% | no prior guidance |
Operating Cash Flow ($USD Billions) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | around $11.5 billion, subject to year-end working capital requirements | no prior guidance |
Capital Expenditures ($USD Billions) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | around $1.6 billion, primarily due to further international ZYN capacity investment | no prior guidance |
Combustible Volume Decline (%) | FY 2025 | Low single-digit decline | Expected to decline around 2%, with a forecast decline of 3% to 4% in H2 | no change |
Combustible Gross Profit Growth | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Targeting growth in H2, supported by pricing and cost efficiencies | no prior guidance |
Smoke-Free Volume Growth (%) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Anticipated to continue double-digit growth in H2 | no prior guidance |
Total PMI Volume Growth (%) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Forecasted to increase around +1%, marking the fifth consecutive year of total volume growth | no prior guidance |
Debt Ratio Target | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | On track for a target ratio of around two times by the end of 2026 | no prior guidance |
Currency Impact on EPS (€) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Estimated €0.10 favorable impact at prevailing exchange rates, with benefits from a weaker dollar partly offset by transactional losses due to Swiss franc volatility | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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ZYN Consumer Demand | Q1 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024 discussed high shipment growth, strong consumer traction despite stock‐outs (e.g., +53% in Q1, strong traction in Q4, gradual replenishment in Q3) | Q2 2025 showed reaccelerated U.S. consumer offtake growth (+26% overall, +36% in June) with improved in‑store availability and solid global shipment growth | Consistently strong demand with improved availability and higher growth momentum over time |
Inventory Dynamics | Q1 2025 noted significant out‑of‑stock issues and gradual replenishment, Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 highlighted supply shortages and phased restocking | Q2 2025 reported that restocking was largely completed in H1 (mostly in Q1) and the net impact was only slightly below expectations | Transition from severe stock-outs to near normalization in inventory levels |
Production Capacity | Q1 2025 detailed increased capacity at existing facilities and the start of new builds (e.g., Colorado site), Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 mentioned expansions to meet demand (e.g., 900 million can target) | Q2 2025 emphasized U.S. production capacity increased ahead of plan and strong positioning to support dynamic growth | Continuous and proactive investment showing steady capacity expansion |
Regulatory Environment Impacts | Q1 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024 discussed favorable regulatory developments (e.g., in Greece, Hungary, FDA authorization for ZYN) contrasted with challenges like the EU flavor ban and litigation settlements | Q2 2025 mentioned positive EU legislative progress and new Middle East market access, while still noting uncertainties (illicit trade concerns and FDA delays for IQOS ILUMA) | Mixed outlook with ongoing tailwinds accompanied by persistent regulatory uncertainties |
IQOS and IQOS ILUMA Performance | Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 reported strong global performance, robust market share gains, US pilot launches and optimistic FDA outlook; Q3 2024 highlighted continued growth and pilot progress | Q2 2025 reinforced robust HTU growth, significant market milestones in Japan and active US pilots; FDA approval for IQOS ILUMA is still awaited | Consistently robust global expansion with continued optimism despite regulatory wait for full US launch |
High‑Margin Smoke‑Free Portfolio | Q1 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024 all emphasized strong growth in smoke‑free product shipments, high organic margin expansion, and significant contributions from ZYN, IQOS, and VEEV | Q2 2025 reported record net revenues in the smoke‑free category, significant gross margin expansion, and strong cost savings across products | Persistently strong and improving margins with an increasingly dominant smoke‑free portfolio driving profitability |
Competitive Pressures | Q1 2025 mentioned robust performance amid competitive dynamics; Q4 2024 flagged emerging synthetic nicotine products and vapor market challenges; Q3 2024 detailed active measures against illicit trade and concerns over the vaping segment | Q2 2025 acknowledged rising competition in heated tobacco and vaping segments while underscoring strategic pricing and consumer acquisition efforts | Competitive pressures remain constant with proactive strategies; sentiment is cautiously optimistic amid an evolving competitive landscape |
Foreign Exchange Volatility | Q1 2025 reported unfavorable currency impacts (e.g., $0.07 variance) and transactional losses; Q4 2024 discussed multiple currency headwinds (Russian ruble, yen) and hedging; Q3 2024 noted a $0.06 impact and mix challenges | Q2 2025 specifically highlighted Swiss franc headwinds offsetting euro gains, impacting EPS benefits | Ongoing challenge with FX volatility across periods with persistent negative impacts despite hedging measures |
Financial Guidance & Litigation Risks | Q1 2025 discussed macroeconomic uncertainty and cautious full-year guidance; Q3 2024 addressed Canadian litigation settlement and excise tax uncertainties; Q4 2024 had little on this topic | Q2 2025 did not mention financial guidance uncertainties or litigation risks | Reduced emphasis in Q2 2025 compared to prior periods, indicating a possible stabilization in outlook |
Pricing Power & Revenue Growth in Combustibles | Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 reported strong pricing contributions (over +8% and almost +9%, respectively) and solid revenue growth; Q3 2024 showed robust pricing increases driving revenue and margin improvements | Q2 2025 reported robust pricing power (+7.2% from pricing actions) and modest volume declines yielding improved revenue and gross profit growth | Consistent and robust pricing strength continues to drive revenue growth, maintaining positive sentiment in combustibles |
Heated Tobacco Unit Global Expansion | Q1 2025 detailed steady IQOS shipment growth and geographic expansion (including US pilots); Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 noted strong growth in Japan and Europe with some regional recoveries and challenges | Q2 2025 highlighted a 9.2% HTU shipment volume growth, milestone achievements in Japan (10 million users), and strong momentum in Europe and other markets | Strong and consistent global expansion with wide geographic diversification and continuous innovation |
Strong Cash Flow & Financial Performance | Q1 2025 demonstrated robust EPS, margin expansion, and revenue growth; Q4 2024 reported record operating cash flow and strong financial metrics; Q3 2024 emphasized significant cash flow generation and cost efficiencies | Q2 2025 showcased an elevated operating cash flow forecast ($11.5 billion), disciplined CapEx, and ongoing deleveraging initiatives supporting strong overall financial performance | Continued resilience and robust financial performance with consistently strong cash flow generation and effective cost management strategies |
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H2 Outlook
Q: How will H2 compare to H1 guidance?
A: Management expects continued strong Smokefree momentum in H2 with robust IQOS and ZYN growth, even though combustible volumes will decline slightly and timing differences will affect margins. -
US ILUMA
Q: When will ILUMA get U.S. approval?
A: They remain hopeful for H2 approval but caution that heavy FDA workload may push certifications into 2026, alongside strong international growth drivers. -
Gross Margin & FX
Q: What are margin and FX outlook details?
A: Management highlighted that smoke free margins remain around 70%, with a narrowing gap to combustibles; FX headwinds from the Swiss franc are offsetting euro benefits. -
HTU Pricing
Q: Does pricing affect new user acquisition?
A: They are raising prices to boost revenue and margins without sacrificing volume, relying on strong brand equity for continuity. -
ZYN Inventory & Capacity
Q: How does lower restock affect ZYN guidance?
A: Although restocking was roughly 10–20 million cans lower than expected—a minor, temporary issue—guidance of 800–840 million cans remains intact thanks to renewed consumer momentum. -
Combustible Trend
Q: Are combustibles declining as expected?
A: Combustible volumes are tracking a low single-digit decline, around 2% yearly, in line with long-term trends despite market headwinds. -
EU Policy
Q: What’s new on EU TED proposals?
A: Management noted that while proposals differentiate between smoke free and combustible products, they will withhold comment until clearer outcomes emerge from the lengthy process. -
E-Vapor Strategy
Q: How has the e-vapor strategy evolved?
A: The integrated three‐category approach is showing results with improved Vive margins—up by over 10 percentage points—supporting enhanced profitability. -
ZYN Q4 Pace
Q: Is strong Q4 ZYN reacceleration assured?
A: Early consumer offtake and ramping commercial efforts signal a robust rebound in Q4 for ZYN. -
Promo Timing
Q: When will full promotional activities resume?
A: Activation is gradual, with full-scale promotional campaigns expected to be in place during Q3. -
Working Capital
Q: What drove the weaker working capital this quarter?
A: The shortfall was mainly due to significant duty payments and temporary inventory builds, which management expects to normalize later. -
CapEx Disclosure
Q: What was Q2 CapEx spending?
A: They did not provide quarterly details, only reaffirming the full-year projection of $1.6 billion in capital expenditures.
Research analysts covering Philip Morris International.