Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- Strong anticipated sales growth driven by large commercial and industrial customers, including TSMC's full ramp-up in first half of 2025, leading to total sales growth of 4% to 6% through 2026.
- The company expects significant earnings growth over the long term, with increased capital investments in transmission and generation, supported by mechanisms like the System Reliability Benefit (SRB), contributing to anticipated 5% to 7% EPS growth.
- Active financial management to maintain solid investment-grade credit ratings, with an adjusted FFO-to-debt target range of 14% to 16%, and plans for equity issuances to support a balanced capital structure and fund growth initiatives.
- Significant regulatory lag is causing under-earning, with uncertainties about when and how the company will recover these costs, potentially impacting earnings growth. ,
- Credit metrics have deteriorated, with the FFO-to-debt ratio falling below previous targets, leading to uncertainty around the company's credit ratings and possible negative outlooks from rating agencies. ,
- Substantial equity issuances are planned, including up to $500 million to true up the capital structure and an additional $400 million to support future capital expenditures, which could dilute existing shareholders' value. , ,
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Equity Issuance Plans
Q: What is your preference and plan for future equity issuances, including ATMs and hybrids?
A: We need up to $500 million in equity, plus an additional $100 million to $200 million to maintain a strong utility equity ratio of 51.9%. We're flexible and considering options like ATM programs or equity-like securities to align equity issuances with our capital needs over time. -
Growth Guidance Including BCE Sale
Q: Are you confident in achieving 5% to 7% earnings growth, including the impact of the BCE sale?
A: Yes, our guidance includes the expected gain of $0.10 from the sale of Bright Canyon Energy this year. We're confident in achieving 5% to 7% earnings growth on this rebased level, including that $0.10. -
Regulatory Lag and Next Rate Case Timing
Q: How do you plan to address under-earning due to regulatory lag, and when is the next rate case expected?
A: We're addressing regulatory lag by engaging in a docket starting on March 19 to explore mechanisms to mitigate it. We haven't set a timing for our next rate case but may wait to see the outcome of this docket, potentially filing in 2025. -
Sales Growth from Large Customers
Q: How should we think about sales growth in 2025 and 2026 with large customers?
A: Significant growth is expected from customers like Taiwan Semiconductor, which plans full ramp-up in the first half of 2025. This contributes to forecasted sales growth of 4% to 6% through 2026, compared to 2% to 4% this year. -
FFO to Debt Metrics and Credit Ratings
Q: Where do you anticipate landing on FFO to debt metrics, and will the recent rate case improve credit ratings?
A: We've reset our FFO to debt target to 14% to 16%. While agencies haven't provided official calculations yet, we're engaging with them and believe the constructive rate case outcome supports maintaining solid investment-grade credit ratings. -
SRB Deployment Timing
Q: When will we first see Self Reserve Balancing (SRB) deployed?
A: The earliest SRB projects will be in service before summer 2026, assuming they clear the RFP. SRB will increase tracked capital and contribute to smoother cost recovery over the medium term. -
O&M Management and Inflationary Pressures
Q: How are you managing inflationary pressures to keep core O&M declining?
A: We leveraged favorable weather to pull some O&M from 2024 into 2023. We're committed to customer affordability and maintaining a lean culture, with savings from closing Cholla and shifting to assets with lighter O&M. -
Growth Rate Expectations and Regulatory Lag
Q: How are you thinking about the 5% to 7% growth rate given regulatory lag?
A: We have the investment profile to achieve 5% to 7% growth over the long term. By addressing regulatory lag and increasing tracked capital through SRB, we expect smoother cost recovery and sustained growth. -
Equity Ratio Target
Q: Are you targeting a 52% equity ratio at APS to match the rate case outcome?
A: We aim for a balanced capital structure with slightly over 50% equity at the utility. The recent 51.9% equity ratio is appropriate, and we're balancing our capital needs to maintain this. -
Regulatory Lag Impact on Earnings
Q: How would you characterize under-earning this year due to regulatory lag?
A: Regulatory lag is driven by factors like higher interest costs, with recent debt issuances in the mid-5% to low-6% range compared to an embedded cost of debt of 3.85%. O&M increases and pension impacts also contribute, which we'll address in the next rate case and the regulatory lag docket.
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