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    PINNACLE WEST CAPITAL (PNW)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 25, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$92.11Last close (Feb 24, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$93.25Open (Feb 25, 2025)
    Price Change
    $1.14(+1.24%)
    • Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) is maintaining its 5% to 7% EPS growth guidance, focusing on reducing regulatory lag, and has significant capital expenditure opportunities, including winning 800 megawatts in the last RFP that are eligible for the System Reliability Benefit surcharge, as well as substantial increases in transmission investments.
    • The company is working towards implementing a formula rate plan to reduce regulatory lag, which would allow for more timely recovery of investments and potentially enhance earnings predictability and financial performance. They plan to include details of the formula rate plan in their next rate case filing in mid-2025.
    • PNW anticipates incremental capital expenditure opportunities beyond 2027, including longer-term generation resources and strategic transmission projects with in-service dates extending into the next decade, which could support long-term growth.
    • Potential delays in implementing the formula rate plan could extend regulatory lag until the end of 2026, impacting earnings recovery. The company anticipates that the rate case, including the formula rate plan, may not be concluded until late 2026.
    • Uncertainty around future allowed ROE under the formula rate plan, as details are not yet established, which could lead to lower returns if not favorably resolved. The ROE details were not included in the policy statement and will be worked out in the upcoming rate case.
    • Despite robust growth opportunities, the company is maintaining its 5% to 7% EPS growth guidance without plans to increase it, suggesting a conservative outlook that may limit upside potential.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +10% (from $991,574K in Q4 2023 to $1,095,408K in Q4 2024)

    **Total Revenue grew by approximately 10% YoY, driven by underlying business factors such as improved customer acquisition and possibly enhanced pricing strategies compared to the prior period, which saw lower revenue. This growth reflects positive market demand and strategic initiatives to boost retail sales. **

    Operating Income (EBIT)

    +23% (from $74,380K in Q4 2023 to $91,323K in Q4 2024)

    **Operating Income increased by about 23% YoY, suggesting that the company not only achieved higher revenues but also improved its cost control and operational efficiency relative to the previous quarter. These factors indicate that the business managed to convert additional revenue into higher operating profitability. **

    Net Income

    Turned positive from a loss of ($12,941K) to $43,516K

    **Net Income’s reversal from a loss of ($12,941K) in Q4 2023 to a profit of $43,516K in Q4 2024 signals a significant turnaround. This improvement likely stems from the revenue uptick and operational improvements; however, the reversal also reflects a change in underlying cost structures and effective management of expenses relative to the previous period. **

    Basic EPS

    Declined to -$0.07 (diluted -$0.08)

    **Despite improvements in net income, Basic EPS turned negative in Q4 2024, a contrast from previously positive figures. This discrepancy may be due to dilution effects, potential one-time adjustments, or higher per-share expense allocations that more adversely affected the EPS calculation in the current period. **

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    2024 EPS

    FY 2024

    $5.00 to $5.20 per share

    no guidance

    no current guidance

    2024 Sales Growth

    FY 2024

    4% to 6%

    no guidance

    no current guidance

    2024 O&M Expenses

    FY 2024

    $1.01 billion to $1.03 billion

    no guidance

    no current guidance

    2024 CapEx

    FY 2024

    $2.05 billion

    no guidance

    no current guidance

    2025 EPS

    FY 2025

    $4.40 to $4.60 per share

    no guidance

    no current guidance

    2025 Customer Growth

    FY 2025

    1.5% to 2.5%

    no guidance

    no current guidance

    Weather-Normalized Sales Growth

    FY 2025

    4% to 6% with 3% to 5% contributed by C&I

    4% to 6% with C&I customers contributing 3% to 5%

    no change

    Long-Term EPS Growth

    FY 2025

    5% to 7%

    5% to 7%

    no change

    Capital and Financing Plans

    FY 2025

    no guidance

    Over 40% of future capital investments will be tracked via system reliability benefit surcharges or FERC formula rates

    no prior guidance

    Customer Growth

    FY 2024

    no guidance

    2.1%

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    EPS
    FY 2024
    $5.00 – $5.20
    $5.35 (sum of Q1: 0.15, Q2: 1.79, Q3: 3.48, Q4: -0.07)
    Beat
    Capital Expenditure (CapEx)
    FY 2024
    $2.05 billion
    $2.25 billion (sum of Q1: $517,756, Q2: $533,971, Q3: $665,844, Q4: $531,624 (no citation provided))
    Missed
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Regulatory Lag / Formula Rate Plan Implementation

    Earlier calls (Q1–Q3) discussed challenges from using a historical test year, held workshops and docket progress sessions, and explored potential remedy options such as forward test years and formula rates.

    Q4 emphasized active efforts to reduce regulatory lag with a clear policy statement from the ACC in December 2024 and detailed plans to file a mid‑2025 rate case that incorporates a formula rate plan.

    Consistent focus with a more definitive, optimistic regulatory direction in Q4.

    Capital Expenditure Opportunities and Strategic Investments

    Q1–Q3 calls outlined plans for incremental CapEx financing, competitive RFPs, large-scale generation, transmission, and distribution investments; detailed financing moves such as bond issuances and equity planning were also shared.

    Q4 renewed focus by highlighting targeted investments in generation, transmission, distribution, IT infrastructure, and the largest transmission/generation expansion in company history, with plans to adjust CapEx allocation post-formula rate authorization.

    A sustained strong investment focus that has evolved into more refined priorities and larger-scale planning.

    Sales Growth and High Load Factor Customer Demand

    Across Q1–Q3, the company reported robust weather‑normalized sales growth (around 5.5%–5.9%), strong C&I performance, and an expanding pipeline of high load factor customers (data centers and semiconductor firms, including TSMC) driving growth.

    Q4 reported full‑year sales growth of 5.7% with continued strong demand from data centers and semiconductor projects (e.g., TSMC and Amkor), and reaffirmed 2025 sales guidance.

    A steady, bullish trend with persistent and even expanding high load factor customer demand.

    EPS Growth Guidance and Conservative Financial Outlook

    Q1 provided limited explicit discussion; Q2 mentioned unchanged guidance with attention to trends; Q3 reaffirmed a 5%–7% EPS growth target with emphasis on smoothing earnings via rate base growth and effective operational management.

    Q4 once again reaffirmed the 5%–7% EPS growth guidance and stressed a conservative, smoother earnings profile supported by regulatory reforms and broad-based initiatives.

    A consistent, conservative outlook that has been reinforced and clarified over time.

    Regulatory Uncertainty and Rate Case Dynamics

    Q1 highlighted challenges with the historical test year and related cost recovery; Q2 discussed workshops, the evolving timing of the next rate case, and the need for better credit metrics; Q3 addressed planned mid‑2025 filings and concerns around allowed ROE.

    Q4 detailed plans for a mid‑2025 rate case featuring the formula rate plan, with ongoing attention to allowed ROE concerns while leveraging a supportive policy statement to reduce uncertainty.

    Persistent challenges being incrementally addressed – Q4 offers clearer timelines and stronger regulatory alignment.

    Inflation‑Driven Operational Cost Pressures

    Q1 called out impacts on O&M and higher depreciation from IT investments; Q2 noted a lower inflation backdrop regionally; Q3 offered a detailed discussion on rising O&M costs, the lag in cost recovery, and plans to manage these pressures.

    Q4 mentioned increased costs (O&M, D&A, and debt financing) that partly offset positive drivers, without a deep‐dive but implying the ongoing pressure.

    Cost pressures remain a concern though Q4 treats them more as a factor integrated into overall cost management rather than as a standalone focus.

    Potential Equity Dilution Risks from Capital Raising Activities

    In Q1 the company described a significant $750M equity offering and highlighted future incremental external financing needs; Q2 discussed block equity drawdowns and the exploration of ATM programs; Q3 noted lowered expected annual equity run rates and explored various financing alternatives.

    Q4 noted that share dilution from equity issuance partially offset positive financial drivers and continued to use block equity and ATM programs in line with capital investment needs.

    A consistent focus on managing dilution risk, with evolving financing strategies suggesting a moderated risk profile over time.

    Operational Challenges (Planned Outages and Increased O&M Costs)

    Q1 described planned outages at Palo Verde with minor O&M delays and higher IT-related depreciation; Q2 highlighted the major Four Corners outage and a modest overall increase in O&M costs; Q3 provided more detailed planning for outages and noted deliberate O&M cost increases offset by cost management actions.

    Q4 referenced increased O&M, D&A, and financing costs as headwinds that offset some positive factors, with fewer operational specifics provided compared to earlier periods.

    Operational challenges have been consistently managed through proactive planning; recent calls rely on broader financial offsets rather than detailing individual outages.

    Previously Emphasized Topics No Longer Prominent (Energy Efficiency, Distributed Generation Adoption, Wildfire Risks)

    Q1 featured active discussion on energy efficiency trends, impacts of DG adoption on residential sales, and comprehensive wildfire risk mitigation strategies, including community engagement and technological deployment.

    Q4 showed minimal mention of energy efficiency and DG, with only a brief reference to wildfire risks in the context of a new legislative measure (House Bill 2201).

    A marked decline in prominence – these topics have largely receded from focused discussion in recent periods.

    1. Formula Rate Plan Implementation
      Q: Do we need to fully litigate to implement formula rates?
      A: Management stated that while settlements can lead to good outcomes, they are preparing for a litigated case to implement the new formula rate plan, especially since it's a new ratemaking concept they want to ensure is implemented correctly.

    2. Potential to Increase EPS Growth Rate
      Q: Can EPS growth rate increase above 5%-7%?
      A: Management emphasized that their primary focus is on maintaining a smooth 5%-7% EPS growth rate, working through the next rate case to reduce regulatory lag. While they acknowledge robust sales growth and significant CapEx opportunities, their goal is to continue within the existing growth rate range.

    3. CapEx Trends Beyond 2027
      Q: How will CapEx trends look beyond 2027?
      A: Management indicated that while they provide a three-year CapEx forecast, projects such as longer-dated generation and high-voltage transmission will extend beyond 2027. They are focusing on current capital allocation and will reassess once they implement the formula rate plan.

    4. CapEx Allocation with Formula Rates
      Q: Will CapEx allocation change with formula rates?
      A: Management will reevaluate capital allocation if the formula rate plan is adopted. They may shift investments toward their distribution system, IT infrastructure, and generation fleet maintenance, areas that have been deferred due to regulatory lag.

    5. Wildfire Legislation Impact
      Q: What is the outlook for House Bill 2201?
      A: Management supports the bill addressing wildfire mitigation plans and limitations on liabilities. They believe it establishes good guidelines for wildfire prevention but noted it's still early in the legislative process.

    6. New Nuclear Plans
      Q: What are the plans for new nuclear in the early 2040s?
      A: Management sees nuclear as a potential source of reliable, affordable carbon-free energy. They are assessing suitable locations and technologies but stated it's too early to commit to a project. They are monitoring technological and supply-side maturity over time.

    7. ROE in Rate Case with Formula Rate Plan
      Q: How will ROE be handled in the formula rate plan?
      A: Management does not envision ROE to differ from current practice in the formula rate plan. They will demonstrate an appropriate ROE in the upcoming rate case and work with the commission on maintaining it in the formula rate construct.

    8. Timing of Rate Case Conclusion
      Q: Does the formula rate issue affect the rate case timeline?
      A: Management anticipates concluding the next rate case by end of 2026, including the formula rate plan details. They believe the prior alignment with the commission on the policy statement will facilitate the process.

    Research analysts covering PINNACLE WEST CAPITAL.