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PG

PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO /OR/ (POR)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered steady execution: revenue rose to $0.807B and GAAP EPS was $0.56; non‑GAAP EPS was $0.66 as PGE continued to benefit from strong industrial/data center demand and disciplined cost control .
  • Results beat S&P Global consensus on revenue and non‑GAAP EPS; revenue was $807M vs $793.3M consensus* and adjusted EPS was $0.66 vs $0.636*; EBITDA came in a touch below consensus, reflecting wholesale and credit markets headwinds in the quarter* .
  • Guidance held: 2025 adjusted EPS $3.13–$3.33; O&M $795–$815M; D&A $550–$575M; CFFO $0.9–$1.0B; Capex trimmed to $1.215B (from $1.265B in Q1) as capital execution efficiencies materialized .
  • Regulatory and financing catalysts: filed HoldCo reorganization; signed MOU on recovery for Seaside BESS and Distribution System Plan (DSP) via ARM (Seaside +$46M annualized from 10/31/25; DSP +$72M annualized from 4/1/26), improving recovery visibility and rate case cadence .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Industrial/data center load strength: “significant demand growth” with Q2 industrial load up 16.5% (nominal and weather‑adjusted) and total load +4.9% (+6.1% weather‑adjusted) YoY; reaffirmed 2025 load growth 2.5–3.5% .
    • Cost discipline: early benefits from cost optimization contributed a $0.06 EPS tailwind; capex outlook trimmed for 2025, signaling execution efficiency .
    • Regulatory progress: executed MOU on expedited Seaside tracker and DSP ARM, clarifying recovery for nearly $600M of rate base and deferring next GRC timing (not before Q2/Q3 2026) .
    • Quote: “We are focused on safely and reliably serving customers, engaging with stakeholders, driving efficiencies and updating our corporate structure to lower costs and deliver results.” — Maria Pope, CEO .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Power cost/market headwinds: current‑year power cost performance was an $0.08 EPS headwind; less favorable wholesale and environmental credit market conditions pressured the quarter .
    • Depreciation/interest drag: higher D&A (-$0.10 EPS) and interest (-$0.03 EPS) given ongoing capital investment weighed on EPS .
    • Business transformation charges: non‑recurring costs reduced GAAP EPS by ~$0.10 in Q2 and are expected to taper into 2026; benefits to build over the next year .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q2 2025 Consensus*
Revenue ($USD Billions)$0.758 $0.928 $0.807 $0.7933*
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)$116 $168 $118 —
Net Income ($USD Millions)$72 $100 $62 —
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$0.69 $0.91 $0.56 $0.636 (Primary EPS)*
Diluted EPS (Non‑GAAP)——$0.66 $0.636 (Primary EPS)*
Net Income Margin (%)9.5% (72/758) 10.8% (100/928) 7.7% (62/807) —
  • Q/Q drivers: +$0.32 EPS from revenue (mix and demand), -$0.08 from power costs, +$0.06 O&M, -$0.13 D&A/interest, -$0.04 dilution/other, -$0.10 business transformation (bridge from Q2’24 to Q2’25 provided on call) .
  • Non‑GAAP reconciliation: add back $15M business transformation/optimization, tax effect -$4M to reach $73M/$0.66 EPS for Q2 2025 .

KPIs and Load

  • Load growth YoY: Total +4.9% (+6.1% weather‑adjusted); Industrial +16.5%; Residential -2.3% (+1% weather‑adjusted); Commercial +0.3% (+0.7% weather‑adjusted) .
  • Average retail customers YTD through Q2: 953,603 (Residential 838,516; Commercial 114,211; Industrial 217) .
  • Energy deliveries YTD through Q2 (MWh ‘000): Total 15,427; Retail 11,009; Wholesale 4,418 .

YTD Revenue Mix (Six Months Ended June 30)

Revenue ($USD Millions)6M 20246M 2025
Retail – Residential722 740
Retail – Commercial446 476
Retail – Industrial206 255
Wholesale275 188
Other/Alt/Accrued23 (32 - 14 + 5) 57 (42 + 5 + 10)
Total Revenues1,687 1,735

Note: Consensus figures marked with an asterisk (*) are Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q1 2025)Current Guidance (Q2 2025)Change
Adjusted EPSFY 2025$3.13–$3.33 $3.13–$3.33 Maintained
Weather‑adj. Load GrowthFY 20252.5%–3.5% 2.5%–3.5% Maintained
O&M ExpenseFY 2025$795–$815M $795–$815M Maintained
Depreciation & Amort.FY 2025$550–$575M $550–$575M Maintained
Effective Tax RateFY 202515%–20% 15%–20% Maintained
Cash From OperationsFY 2025$900–$1,000M $900–$1,000M Maintained
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025$1,265M $1,215M Lowered
Avg. CWIPFY 2025$575M $595M Raised

Regulatory recovery mechanisms (informational):

  • Seaside BESS recovery request: +$46M annualized; target rate effective 10/31/2025 .
  • DSP ARM recovery request: +$72M annualized; proposed rate effective 4/1/2026 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4’24, Q1’25)Current Period (Q2’25)Trend
AI/Data center & industrial demand2024: strong growth; 2025 Q1 industrial +16.4% YoY; broadened customer base Industrial +16.5% YoY in Q2; sustained data center/semiconductor momentum Strengthening
Regulatory/LegislativeWildfire policy progress; planning for trackers and multi‑year rate making MOU on Seaside/DSP ARM; HoldCo filing; Fair Energy Act/Power Act support Improving visibility
Supply chain/Tariffs & tax creditsMonitoring IRA/tariff dynamics; adaptable RFP process 2023 RFP repricing to reflect OBBB; maximize tax credits; 2025 RFP launch timing Active risk mgmt
Cost optimization2024 foundation; 2025 plan to streamline O&M EPS +$0.06 O&M benefit; transformation costs now, benefits ramp into 2026 Execution underway
Market operations/EDAMIntent to join CAISO EDAM (2024) EDAM expected to reduce PCAM volatility post‑go‑live; mechanism alignment needed Positive LT
Corporate structureConsidering HoldCo for financing flexibility (Q1) Filed HoldCo application; potential future TransCo Advancing

Management Commentary

  • Strategic focus: “We remain laser focused on our strategic priorities and continued execution.” — Maria Pope, CEO .
  • Demand outlook: “We expect continued demand growth from our industrial customer class underpinning our reaffirmed…load guidance of 2.5% to 3.5%” — Joe Trpik, CFO .
  • RFP repricing: “The refresh is a strong net positive allowing bidders to price in what was once uncertain…We still expect contract execution by year end and remain firmly committed to a 2027 COD target.” — CFO .
  • Cost program timeline: “Charges will taper into ’26…biggest investments in ’25…benefits will start to materialize next year.” — CFO .
  • Regulatory cadence: “Earliest filing for our next general rate review would occur after Q2 2026…earliest rate effective date 05/01/2027.” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Recovery visibility: Analysts probed the MOU scope; management emphasized pre‑filing alignment on Seaside and DSP ARM to increase “certainty, predictability, and driving value,” with Seaside conclusion targeted for Oct 2025 and DSP ARM for Apr 2026 .
  • RFP/Tax credits: 2023 RFP repricing broadens selection; management seeks to maximize ITC/PTC benefits under OBBB to dampen customer price impacts; similar opportunity set as prior cycle .
  • Cost transformation: Charges continue into 2026 but taper; benefits build later 2025 into 2026 with ~1‑year payback; supports maintaining earned ROE near target band .
  • HoldCo flexibility: Filed in Q2; goal is financing flexibility and optionality; equity plan (~$300M/yr base) currently does not rely on HoldCo .
  • Industrial demand & power costs: Long‑term data center contracts under Power Act enable better cost recovery and investment securitization; EDAM participation expected to help reduce power cost volatility .

Estimates Context

MetricQ2 2024 ActualQ1 2025 ActualQ2 2025 ActualQ2 2025 Consensus*Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)758 928 807 793.3*+$13.7M beat
Primary EPS (Adj. proxy)0.69 0.91 0.66 (Non‑GAAP) 0.636*+$0.024 beat
EBITDA ($USD Millions)240*309*258*270.1*-$12.1 miss
  • FY 2025 EPS consensus at 3.238 sits within reaffirmed guidance of $3.13–$3.33; FY 2026 consensus 3.398 implies mid‑single‑digit growth trajectory consistent with 5–7% long‑term EPS CAGR target* .
    Note: Consensus figures marked with an asterisk (*) are Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Strong industrial/data center demand remained the core growth engine (+16.5% YoY), supporting above‑trend load growth and reinforcing the medium‑term rate base and earnings outlook .
  • Q2 was a clean execution quarter: revenue and adjusted EPS beat consensus; power cost and D&A/interest pressures were offset by revenue mix and O&M savings .
  • Capex prudence: 2025 capex trimmed by ~$50M, reflecting execution efficiency without compromising growth platforms (BESS, distribution, transmission) .
  • Regulatory de‑risking: Seaside/DSP recovery mechanisms and formal HoldCo filing improve visibility on returns and financing flexibility; next GRC not before Q2/Q3 2026 .
  • RFP repricing (2023) and 2025 RFP plans aim to maximize federal tax credits under OBBB, mitigating customer bill impacts and aiding approvals .
  • Near‑term trading lens: reaffirmed EPS guidance, load strength, and regulatory momentum are supportive; watch EDAM/PCAM mechanics, tariff exposure to storage supply chains, and cadence of transformation benefits into 2026 .
  • Medium‑term thesis: 3% long‑term load CAGR, 5–7% EPS/dividend growth target, and expanding clean/dispatchable resources (Seaside in service early July; total BESS ~492 MW by early Q3) underpin durable growth with improving regulatory predictability .

Additional References

  • Q2 2025 8‑K/Press Release and financial statements .
  • Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript .
  • Q1 2025 8‑K/Press Release and call (for prior quarter trend) .
  • 2024 Results Press Release (for Q4 2024 context) .