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Post Holdings, Inc. (POST)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 FY25 net sales were $1.952B (down 2.3% YoY), GAAP diluted EPS was $1.03, and Adjusted EBITDA was $346.5M; management raised FY25 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.43–$1.47B, citing recovery of Q2 avian influenza costs and egg supply normalization .
  • Versus consensus, POST delivered a significant beat on Adjusted/Primary EPS ($1.41 vs $1.21*) and a modest revenue miss ($1.952B vs $1.980B*); EBITDA was above SPGI consensus if compared to company’s Adjusted EBITDA definition, while SPGI “EBITDA” actual differs by definition *.
  • Segment performance was mixed: Foodservice net sales +9.6% YoY but Adjusted EBITDA −5.6% YoY on costs ahead of pricing; Post Consumer Brands Adjusted EBITDA +2.4% YoY despite cereal and pet volume pressure; Refrigerated Retail impacted by holiday timing and egg cost/pricing lag; Weetabix Adjusted EBITDA +9.0% YoY amid promo pullback and non-core exits .
  • Strategic actions and capital allocation remain supportive: announced two cereal plant closures to optimize capacity ($21–$23M annual savings from FY26), completed PPI acquisition, and repurchased 1.7M shares for $191.6M in Q2 .

Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus comparisons (*).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Raised FY25 Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $1.43–$1.47B with a clear path to recover Q2 avian influenza cost before pricing (~$30M) and to rebalance egg supply by Q4, assuming no new outbreaks .
  • Foodservice net sales +9.6% YoY (to $607.9M), with mix shift toward value-added egg products and incremental ready-to-drink shake volumes; management highlighted strong manufacturing and supply chain execution partially offsetting cost headwinds .
  • Cost discipline and supply chain execution supported Post Consumer Brands Adjusted EBITDA (+2.4% YoY to $203.8M) amid category headwinds; management is optimizing cereal capacity (two plant closures) and relaunching Nutrish .

What Went Wrong

  • Consolidated gross margin fell to 28.0% (from 29.0% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA margin ticked down to 17.8% (from 17.3% YoY) on costs ahead of pricing and category volume pressure; GAAP net earnings fell 35.6% YoY to $62.6M, including $5.5M swaps expense .
  • Refrigerated Retail net sales −6.6% YoY to $224.6M and Adjusted EBITDA −14.3% YoY to $34.7M, impacted by holiday timing and egg costs/pricing lag; category volumes were down across products (e.g., cheese −15.0%) .
  • Cereal category declines accelerated (−3.7% YoY) and pet demand softness (e.g., Nutrish) pressured volumes; management noted promotional blackouts in Weetabix and GLP‑1 category impacts likely to require lapping over the next 6–18 months .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025 ActualQ2 2025 Consensus*
Revenue ($USD Billions)$2.010 $1.975 $1.952 $1.980*
Diluted EPS (GAAP, $)$1.28 $1.78 $1.03 —
Adjusted/Primary EPS ($)$1.53 $1.73 $1.41 $1.21*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$348.7 $369.9 $346.5 $335.0*
Gross Margin %28.6% 30.1% 28.0% —
Net Income Margin %4.1% 5.7% 3.2% —
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %17.3% 18.7% 17.8% —

Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus comparisons (*).

Segment breakdown (Net Sales and Adjusted EBITDA):

SegmentNet Sales Q2 2024 ($MM)Net Sales Q2 2025 ($MM)Adj. EBITDA Q2 2024 ($MM)Adj. EBITDA Q2 2025 ($MM)
Post Consumer Brands$1,065.5 $987.9 $199.0 $203.8
Weetabix$138.0 $131.7 $27.8 $30.3
Foodservice$554.8 $607.9 $101.7 $96.0
Refrigerated Retail$240.4 $224.6 $40.5 $34.7

KPIs (Q2 FY25):

KPIQ2 2025Reference
Refrigerated Retail volume change (All)−4.9%
Side dishes volume change−8.2%
Egg volume change−3.9%
Cheese volume change−15.0%
Sausage volume change−5.1%
Share repurchases (Q2)1.7M shares; $191.6M; $110.19 avg price
Interest expense (Q2)$87.0M
Effective tax rate (Q2)24.3%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP)FY2025$1,420–$1,460M $1,430–$1,470M Raised
Total Capital ExpendituresFY2025$380–$420M $390–$430M Raised
Capex – Post Consumer BrandsFY2025$90–$100M $100–$110M Raised
Capex – FoodserviceFY2025$80–$90M $80–$90M Maintained
Foodservice avian influenza cost recovery assumptionFY2025Recover Q2 cost-before-pricing ($30–$50M) in balance of FY Recover ~$30M Q2 cost-before-pricing, no further outbreaks assumed Clarified (narrowed)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4’24 & Q1’25)Current Period (Q2’25)Trend
Avian influenza (HPAI) impactGuided to Q2 cost-before-pricing headwind of $30–$50M; expected recovery in balance of FY Actual ~$30M Q2 cost-before-pricing; pricing effective in April; repopulation on track; expect balance by Q4 if no new outbreaks Improving/normalizing into H2
Cereal category and PCB optimizationQ4: PCB volumes −6.3% ex-acq; FY25 guide maintained; Q1: cereal −2.3% vols; plant closures in Lancaster prior year Accelerated cereal declines (category −3.7%); announced closure of Cobourg & Sparks plants (FY26 savings $21–$23M) Defensive optimization amid category pressure
Foodservice mix & shakes rampQ4: value-added mix; Q1: volumes +2.8% with shakes inclusion Q2: net sales +9.6%; volumes +2.8%; shakes incremental but ramp slower than hoped; EBITDA −5.6% on costs ahead of pricing Positive mix; profit headwinds short-term
Refrigerated Retail & private labelQ4: side dishes +6%; cheese −16.8% Q2: Easter timing headwinds; private label quality improving and taking share; considering broader value chain participation Competitive intensity rising
Macro/tariffs & capital marketsQ4/Q1: leverage and rates elevated CEO: trade policy/regulatory headlines; consumer sentiment weak; M&A valuations complicated; favor smaller deals like PPI Cautious stance
GLP‑1 impact on breakfast/petN/AGLP‑1 demand effects noted; expect lapping in 6–18 months Watchful monitoring

Management Commentary

  • “We performed well in a difficult environment… consumer sentiment is weak. We expect we will need to focus on demand drivers and flawless supply chain execution.” — Robert Vitale, CEO .
  • “Actual Q2 Foodservice adjusted EBITDA was approximately $20 million lower than Q1 as $30 million of costs ahead of pricing impact was partially offset by manufacturing and supply chain performance improvements… additional avian influenza pricing became effective starting in April… we expect to balance our egg sourcing and demand by Q4.” — Jeff Zadoks, COO .
  • “Second quarter consolidated net sales were $2 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $347 million… We repurchased 1.7 million shares at an average price of approximately $110 per share… we increased our adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $1.43 billion to $1.47 billion.” — Matt Mainer, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • PCB profitability amid category declines: Management aims to maintain margins through cost actions and believes cereal declines can temper back toward −1% to −2% longer term, not within this fiscal year .
  • Cereal plant closures savings: About $20M annualized gross savings from announced closures, with potential deleverage offsets; press release targets $21–$23M annual savings beginning FY26 .
  • Refrigerated Retail strategy: Private label quality improving and taking share; with added capacity (incl. PPI), POST can consider playing up/down the value chain, while maintaining Bob Evans share; innovation/renovation to ramp in H2 and into next year .
  • RTD shakes ramp: Sequential improvement but slower than hoped; still not material to profit yet; long-run profitability target unchanged .
  • 8th Avenue optionality: Near-term maturities to be resolved soon; management declined specifics on potential reconsolidation .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 FY25 vs SPGI consensus: Adjusted/Primary EPS $1.41 vs $1.21* (beat), Revenue $1.952B vs $1.980B* (miss), Adjusted EBITDA $346.5M vs EBITDA consensus $335.0* (beat on company-reported Adjusted EBITDA metric) *.
  • Q1 FY25: Adjusted/Primary EPS $1.73 vs $1.51*; Revenue $1.975B vs $1.989B*; Adjusted EBITDA $369.9M vs $358.7M* *.
  • Note: SPGI “EBITDA” methodology may differ from company “Adjusted EBITDA,” contributing to the variance; investors should anchor on company-defined non-GAAP and reconcile to SPGI where needed .

Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus comparisons (*).

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term Foodservice profitability should improve as avian influenza pricing flows through and egg supply normalizes by Q4, assuming no further outbreaks; Q2’s ~$30M cost-before-pricing is expected to be recovered in H2 .
  • PCB remains resilient on profitability via cost actions despite category volume pressure; structural network optimization (two plant closures) targets $21–$23M annual savings from FY26, supporting medium-term margins .
  • Refrigerated Retail faces private label competition and timing headwinds; with capacity improved (incl. PPI), POST can expand participation across price tiers and ramp innovation/renovation in H2 .
  • Capital allocation remains shareholder-friendly: substantial buybacks (1.7M shares, $191.6M in Q2) and disciplined M&A focus on smaller tactical deals amid market volatility .
  • Watch GLP‑1 demand dynamics in cereal/pet and promotional posture in UK (Weetabix); lapping over the next 6–18 months could ease category pressures .
  • Raised FY25 Adjusted EBITDA and higher capex (PCB + Foodservice) point to confidence in H2 recovery drivers and capacity expansions; execution on RTD shakes ramp is a medium-term upside lever .
  • Risk flags: high leverage and rising interest costs, consumer sentiment softness, and tariff/regulatory uncertainty; maintain vigilance on swaps and mark-to-market items that drive GAAP volatility .