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Post Holdings, Inc. (POST)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 FY25 delivered net sales of $1.98B (+1.9% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA of $397.0M (+13.4% YoY), with gross margin at 30.0% and net earnings of $108.8M; strength in Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail more than offset weaker Post Consumer Brands (PCB) volumes .
  • EPS materially beat Street: Adjusted diluted EPS $2.03 vs S&P Global consensus $1.65 (+$0.38, ~+23%); revenue modestly beat $1.98B vs $1.95B .
  • Guidance raised: FY25 Adjusted EBITDA to $1.50–$1.52B (from $1.46–$1.50B), capex to $450–$480M; management expects Q4 to be roughly flat to Q3 as 8th Avenue’s full-quarter contribution offsets normalization in cold chain businesses .
  • Catalysts: ongoing buybacks (8% YTD), leadership change (COO retirement, PCB CEO stepping in as COO), $300M five-year cash tax benefit from H.R. 1, and continued M&A/portfolio actions (8th Avenue closed July 1) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Foodservice net sales +18.6% and Segment Adjusted EBITDA +32.1% YoY, driven by HPAI pricing recovery and volume growth; segment profit +38.3% .
    • Refrigerated Retail rebound: Segment Adjusted EBITDA +94.4% YoY and profit +380% YoY, as trade discipline and HPAI pricing adders aided performance; eggs +8% volumes .
    • Management quote: “We had strong results in Q3… significant improvement in our cold chain businesses more than offsetting a pullback at PCB” — Robert Vitale .

  • What Went Wrong

    • PCB net sales -9.3% YoY; pet volumes -13% (distribution losses, co-man/private label reductions) and cereal volumes -5.8%; PCB Segment Adjusted EBITDA -8.3% YoY .
    • Weetabix volumes -2.5% with Segment Adjusted EBITDA -4.1% YoY; promotions and product exits weighed, despite FX tailwind ~560bps .
    • Analyst concerns: PCB severance ($5M) and extended Nutrish recovery timeline; Gravy Train price elasticity pressured volumes — course corrections underway .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.975 $1.952 $1.984
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)$1.78 $1.03 $1.79
Adjusted Diluted EPS (non-GAAP) ($)$1.73 $1.41 $2.03
Gross Margin (%)30.1% 28.0% 30.0%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$369.9 $346.5 $397.0
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)18.7% 17.8% 20.0%
Net Income Margin (%)5.7% 3.2% 5.5%

Segment Net Sales (Q3 2024 → Q3 2025):

Segment Net Sales ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q3 2025
Post Consumer Brands$1,008.1 $914.0
Weetabix$136.1 $137.9
Foodservice$589.1 $698.5
Refrigerated Retail$214.4 $233.9

Segment Adjusted EBITDA (Q3 2024 → Q3 2025):

Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q3 2025
Post Consumer Brands$193.5 $177.5
Weetabix$34.2 $32.8
Foodservice$120.4 $159.0
Refrigerated Retail$23.3 $45.3

KPIs (Q3 2025):

KPIValue
PCB volumes YoY-10.3%
Pet food volumes YoY-13.0%
Cereal volumes YoY-5.8%
Weetabix volumes YoY-2.5%
Foodservice volumes ex-PPI YoY+4.5%
Refrigerated Retail volumes (All) YoY+2.3% (0.6% ex-PPI)
Egg volume (Refrig. Retail) YoY+8.0%
Cheese volume (Refrig. Retail) YoY-10.7%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP)FY 2025$1,460–$1,500M (June 3 update) $1,500–$1,520M Raised
Capital ExpenditureFY 2025$390–$430M (May 8) $450–$480M Raised
Cash tax impact (H.R. 1)Next 5 years—~$300M favorable cash taxes New
Foodservice normalized quarterly Adj. EBITDA run-rate (mgmt expectation)FY 2026—~$115M per quarter Provided qualitative outlook

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 FY25 (Previous Mentions)Q2 FY25 (Previous Mentions)Q3 FY25 (Current Period)Trend
Avian Influenza (HPAI) pricing/supplyAnticipated Q2 headwind $30–$50M; recovery expected balance of year Q2 cost ahead of pricing (~$30M); pricing effective in April; supply recovery expected Wind-down of temporary HPAI pricing by end of Q4; full egg supply recovery expected Normalizing
ERP conversionsPCB Pet & Weetabix ERP executed; risk managed Weetabix improvement post-ERP; promotions limited Return to marketing/promotions; UFit volumes +31% YoY Improving execution
Pet portfolio/NutrishRelaunch underway; pet volumes -13% Further declines; replacement of private label; $5M PCB severance Larger-than-expected Nutrish decline; Gravy Train price-pack changes; extended recovery timeline Near-term pressure; gradual recovery
Cereal category dynamicsCategory -3.2%; PCB share stable Continued declines; rational trade spend Private label underperforming branded; targeted “benefit-forward” innovation Structural headwinds
Capital allocation4% repurchased in Q1 1.7M shares repurchased in Q2 ~8% YTD buybacks; $231.4M remaining authorization (as of Aug 7) Continues
M&A/PortfolioActive pipeline; valuation uncertainty M&A slower; buybacks favored 8th Avenue acquisition closed July 1; optionality; sale of pasta announced Aug 29 Portfolio shaping

Management Commentary

  • “We had strong results in Q3… significant improvement in our cold chain businesses more than offsetting a pullback at PCB.” — Robert Vitale .
  • “Bonus depreciation and interest deductibility changes will drive an estimated $300,000,000 reduction in cash taxes paid over the next five years.” — Robert Vitale .
  • “Our early read of the normalized quarterly adjusted EBITDA run rate of our foodservice business [is] approximately $115,000,000… set to enter fiscal 2026 at a normalized run rate.” — Jeff Zadoks .
  • “At the midpoint [of raised FY25 Adjusted EBITDA], Q4 will be approximately flat to Q3 with inclusion of a full quarter of 8th Avenue results offsetting normalization.” — Matt Mainer .
  • “We continue to be aggressive in share buybacks, having bought back 8% of the company fiscal year to date.” — Robert Vitale .

Q&A Highlights

  • FY26 setup: Management still in planning, but expects modest EBITDA growth off normalized FY25; Foodservice to grow per algorithm post normalization .
  • Foodservice pricing and run-rate: Recovery of Q2 costs primarily in Q3; normalized quarterly Adjusted EBITDA ~$115M; shakes contribution still modest but improving .
  • PCB levers: $5M severance to optimize SG&A; cereal plant closures on track by year-end; incremental network optimization possible; innovation targeted to value/benefit-forward niches .
  • Cereal dynamics: Private label underperforming branded; promotions at “normal” levels; value chain focus remains core to strategy .
  • M&A/capital markets: Active pipeline; balance between external deals and buybacks given low multiples and uncertainty (tariffs, ingredient changes) .

Estimates Context

  • Consensus vs Actual (Q3 FY25):
    • Primary/Normalized EPS: $1.65* estimate vs $2.03 actual — significant beat driven by cold chain strength and HPAI pricing adders; PCB/pet volumes a headwind but cost optimization helped .
    • Revenue: $1.95B* estimate vs $1.98B actual — modest beat on Foodservice growth and pricing adders .
    • Estimates breadth: 10 EPS estimates; 7 revenue estimates*.
MetricQ3 2025 ConsensusQ3 2025 Actual
Primary EPS (S&P Global)1.65*2.03
Revenue ($USD Billions) (S&P Global)1.95*1.984
EPS - # of Estimates10*—
Revenue - # of Estimates7*—

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • EPS and revenue beats with a guidance raise signal resilience; cold chain (Foodservice/Refrigerated Retail) offset PCB softness — near-term supportive of sentiment and multiple expansion .
  • Expect Q4 normalization as HPAI pricing adders wind down; watch sequential mix shift toward PCB (back-to-school) and full-quarter 8th Avenue contribution .
  • PCB remains the swing factor: pet turnaround extended; Nutrish course corrections and Gravy Train price-pack changes are underway; cereal structurally pressured but cost actions (plant closures) mitigate margin risk .
  • Foodservice normalized quarterly Adj. EBITDA ~$115M sets FY26 baseline; shakes remain a slow ramp but incremental tailwind over time .
  • Cash tax law benefit (~$300M over 5 years) and continued repurchases (8% YTD) enhance FCF and capital allocation flexibility; leadership transition appears orderly .
  • Portfolio shaping (8th Avenue acquisition; subsequent pasta sale announcement) suggests active optimization and synergy capture in nut butters/granola; integration pacing prudent into FY26 .
  • Trading lens: near-term, monitor Q4 margin normalization and PCB demand; medium-term, focus on pet recovery, cereal optimization, and realized synergies from 8th Avenue .