Pilgrim's Pride - Earnings Call - Q2 2025
July 31, 2025
Executive Summary
- PPC delivered another solid quarter: revenue $4.76B (+4.3% YoY), GAAP EPS $1.49, Adjusted EPS $1.70, and Adjusted EBITDA $686.9M (14.4% margin). Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue beat by ~$0.13B and EPS (adjusted) exceeded by ~$0.12; Q1 saw mixed results (EPS slight miss; revenue beat), while Q4 2024 was EPS beat/revenue miss*.
- U.S. strength and EU margin expansion offset Mexico headwinds (FX and disease); U.S. adjusted operating margin rose to 14.7%, EU to 5.4%, while Mexico fell to 15.4% from 18.3% last year. Management cited legal settlements ($58M) in GAAP results and higher commodity chicken input costs pressuring Prepared Foods profitability.
- Capital allocation/capex updated: Board declared a $2.10/share (~$500M) special dividend; 2025 capex now “slightly less than $750M,” at $650–$700M; net interest expense guided to $115–$125M; tax rate ~25%. A $400M prepared foods plant in GA is expected to lift U.S. prepared sales by 40% at full capacity (1H’27).
- Key near-term stock catalysts: special dividend timing, Prepared Foods expansion trajectory (Walker County spend cadence), and commodity cut-out/hatchability dynamics that influence U.S. margins and estimate revisions.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- U.S. business and branded Prepared Foods momentum: “Prepared continued to realize significant growth as net sales increased by 20%… Just Bare recently achieved over 10% market share… Pilgrim’s received… People Magazine’s 2025 Food Award for Best Chicken Nugget”. U.S. net revenue rose to $2.82B and adjusted EBITDA to $482.7M.
- EU margin expansion from efficiency and mix: Europe adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 8.2% in Q2 (7.4% last year), driven by “integration of support functions and manufacturing optimization programs” and key customer partnerships. Adjusted operating margin reached 5.4% (vs 4.7% LY).
- Capital returns and liquidity: Board approved a special dividend of $2.10/share (~$500M), with net leverage still ~1.15x post-payout and ample liquidity; bonds mature 2031–2034 and credit facility runs to 2028.
What Went Wrong
- Mexico faced FX and disease headwinds: Q2 Mexico adjusted EBITDA fell to $92.3M (from $115.1M LY) amid a 13% YoY FX drag and “bird disease challenges,” though margins remained >16%. Adjusted operating margin declined to 15.4% from 18.3% YoY.
- GAAP headwind from legal settlements: $58.5M of litigation settlements weighed on GAAP operating income; management is addressing ongoing matters (Broiler litigation).
- Prepared Foods profitability pressure: Despite strong sales growth, “higher commodity chicken input costs were the headwind to prepared foods profitability,” tempering margin flow-through. In deli, “reduction in the growth of rotisserie birds… impacting prices” vs 2024.
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning and welcome to the second quarter of 2025 Pilgrim's Pride earnings conference call and webcast. All participants will be in the listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal an operator specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. At the company's request, this call is being recorded. Please note that the slides referenced during today's call are available for download from the investor section of the company's website at www.pilgrims.com. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Andrew Rojeski, Head of Strategy, Investor Relations, and Sustainability for Pilgrim's Pride. Please go ahead.
Andrew Rojeski (Head of Strategy, Investor Relations and Sustainability)
Good morning and thank you for joining us today as we review our operating and financial results for the second quarter ended on June 29, 2025. Yesterday afternoon, we issued a press release providing an overview of our financial performance for the quarter, including a reconciliation of any non-GAAP measures we may discuss. A copy of the release is available on our website at irpilgrims.com, along with slides for reference. These items also have been filed as Form 8-K and are available online at sec.gov. Fabio Sandri, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Matt Galvanoni, Chief Financial Officer, will present on today's call. Before we begin our prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone of our Safe Harbor disclaimer. Today's call may contain certain forward-looking statements that represent our outlook and current expectations as of the day of this release.
Other additional factors not anticipated by management may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in these forward-looking statements. Further information concerning these factors has been provided in yesterday's press release, our Form 10-K, and our regular filings with the SEC. I would now like to turn the call over to Fabio Sandri.
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
Thank you, Andy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. For the second quarter of 2025, we reported net revenues of $4.8 billion, a 4.3% increase over the same quarter last year. Our adjusted EBITDA was $687 million, up 4.7% versus Q2 of 2024. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.4%, in line with last year. Our performance reflects our commitment to our values, disciplined execution of our strategies, and extensive application of our management methods. In the U.S., our diversified fresh portfolio across segments benefited from favorable commodity cut-out values, continued affordability of chicken compared to other proteins, strong key customer demand, and sustained progress in operational excellence. Diversification efforts through prepared foods accelerated as our branded offers continue to drive growth across retail and food service. Our Europe business drove margin expansion through realization of cost efficiencies in manufacturing and optimization of product mix.
Sales to key customers rose faster than channel averages, and our branded offerings in Fridge Raiders and Rollover continued to grow, further diversifying our portfolio. Mexico drove strong results, given attractive fundamentals in the commodity market, extensive growth with key customers, and continued momentum of branded offerings in fresh and prepared foods. Given the strong demand, along with our vision of becoming the best and most respected, we are pleased to announce the initial wave of investments to further unlock our growth potential. We have also announced a special dividend of approximately $500 million. As a result, we can continue to create a better future for our team members, bolster our competitive advantages, and further unlock value for our shareholders. Turning to supply in the U.S., the USDA indicated ready-to-cook production for the U.S.
chicken that grew 1.9% compared to the second quarter of 2024, from increased headcount and higher-than-average live weight. Despite an increase in egg sets, with a more productive layer flock, chick placements continued to be challenged as hatchability remained at historical low levels and hatchery utilization continued at record rates. As such, production growth was driven by increased live weight and improved livability during the later half of the quarter, expanding production by 1.9%. Considering the most recent sets and placements data, the USDA estimates growth of 1.5% in 2025, suggesting sufficient supply to meet strong chicken demand experienced in recent quarters. As for overall protein availability, the USDA anticipates 1.3% for 2025 growth as increased chicken and pork production offset significant declines in beef production. As for demand, the cost of eating out continues to increase more rapidly than eating at home.
As such, retail propels further growth for chicken. In fresh, both tenders and wings gain traction, whereas boneless skinless breasts continue to grow, given continued record spread against ground beef. Momentum for boneless thighs continues as we grew faster than all cuts compared to prior years. Similar to fresh, both the deli and frozen departments also added demand at a sustainable rate. Frozen fully cooked led chicken growth across all of retail, primarily through increased velocity, whereas deli benefited from increased distribution and demand for wings. In food service, the increase in the cost of eating out impacted restaurant traffic, especially for food service restaurants. However, chicken demand grew as operators strategically leaned into value offerings, limited-type promotions, and many revisions to either trigger or maintain momentum. Value-added chicken-focused QSRs continue to leverage the affordability of chicken, outperforming the broader dining sector and capturing traffic and share.
In exports, broiler volume continues to lag previous years. Nonetheless, pricing remains resilient as domestic demand for dark meat continues to be healthy. Given the relatively minimal outbreaks of high-path agent influenza, many of our trading partners continue to ease or remove trading restrictions on several major poultry-producing states, increasing the access. While opportunities arise from trade restrictions from the outbreak of high-path AI in Brazil, the overall impact was muted as export markets quickly adjusted to different policies and restrictions across countries. Our trading partners continue to navigate tariffs. To date, there have been no significant disruptions other than China. We anticipate potential benefits to the U.S. chicken when a trade agreement is reached between these countries. Turning to feed, corn pricing moved lower throughout the quarter as the U.S. saw a large rebound in planted acreage. As a result, the USDA forecasted a record high in U.S.
Corn production, along with a rebuild in domestic stocks. When combined with increased production from Brazil, the USDA expects global corn stocks to be relatively flat year-on-year. Soybean meal pricing also moved lower as record South American production drove a sharp rise in global soybean stocks. When combined with increased soybean processing capacity for biofuels worldwide, meal prices have become further depressed. In wheat, global stocks, including China, are expecting a slight rebuild this crop year as production was close to or above initial expectations in all major northern hemispheres. In the U.K. alone, output increased by 12% compared to prior year. As a result, increased production is expected to offset slightly lower beginning stocks. Since ample supply exists and is more readily available at the points of origin, risks related to physical supply of wheat have been reduced.
Throughout the remaining of the year, grain and oilseed markets will take direction based on U.S. weather and its impact on corn and soy crop yields, along with any possible disruptions related to ongoing trade negotiations. In the U.S., consumers continue to seek value in their eating occasions. As such, the relative affordability, availability, and flexibility of chicken compared to the other proteins continue to resonate across both retail and food service channels. Given the environment, K-30 experienced strong demand as consumers increasingly migrated towards retail to stretch their budgets. This trend was amplified by record spreads between boneless skinless breasts and ground beef pricing. Nonetheless, our differentiated portfolio continued to gain traction as our sales to key customers grew significantly higher than industry averages. The performance of our branded Just Bare fresh operating was particularly strong as net sales rose nearly 20% compared to prior years.
In small birds, overall margins remained strong as our business benefited from extensive demand from key customers in QSR. In deli, wing velocity improved, but we experienced some reduction in the growth of rotisserie birds, impacting prices to a lower level than 2024, but still close to the historical five-year average. We are working on new innovations to help growth with our key customers on this category. In big birds, jumbo cut-out values remained favorable despite volatility in the quarter. During the first few months, value was second highest on record. After a rapid decline in June, values returned to normalized levels consistent with the five-year averages. Nevertheless, our team remained focused on operational excellence as yields and labor efficiency both improved. Given our progress and constructive market conditions, profitability increased significantly compared to prior years.
Prepared continued to realize significant growth as net sales increased by 20% compared to last year. In retail, Just Bare recently achieved over 10% market share given incremental distribution and category-leading velocity. Pilgrim's momentum also continues to build as trial and velocity increased throughout the quarter. Both brands continue to receive industry recognition for innovation and consumer preference. Just Bare achieved the number one ranking in Circana's 2024 Product Pacesetter list, whereas Pilgrim's received the People Magazine's 2025 Food Award for Best Chicken Nugget for our cheesy jalapeño offering. Prepared foods also continues to drive profitable growth through incremental distribution, portfolio expansion, and branded offerings in Pilgrim's and Gold Kist brands. As such, sales grew over 25% compared to last year. More importantly, substantial opportunities remain with leading distributors, selected QSRs, and schools.
Commerce also continues to be a growth driver as digitally enabled sales rose over 26% compared to last year through continued expansion and efficiency of media investments with leading retailers, food service providers, and various online platforms. Turning to Europe, the environment improved as consumer sentiment grew as wages outpaced inflation. Within retail, overall demand remained steady across the proteins, with poultry and chilled meals experiencing the highest growth, while lamb and pork were the most challenged. Given this environment, our team continued to drive profitable growth through our strategies. As such, we are strengthening key customer relationships through incremental distribution and new product development, generating sales growth that outpaced the overall grocery channel. Our diversification through key brands in retail also continues to progress. Rollover grew over 10% compared to last year from additional distribution and new offerings.
Fridge Raiders also continued its marketplace momentum as net sales growth surpassed the category averages. Innovation remains a key pillar to drive growth. During the quarter, our higher-attribute, differentiated chicken offerings developed for a key customer were recognized as the best new poultry products by Food Management Today. We continue to cultivate our new product pipeline. As such, we've extended our Rollover portfolio into chicken, created additional eating occasions for Fridge Raiders through packaging, and worked in close collaboration with a key customer to create a series of premium new ethnic meal offerings. These items and several others are slated for launch in Q3 and will be supported by investment in media and promotion to foster growth. Food service remains challenging as total visits fell compared to prior year. We additionally secured awards from our customers, increasing our sales in the channel by 10% versus last year.
Moving forward, we will look to further cultivate our presence with food operators within the pubs and bars category. Our integration of corporate support activities and optimization of our manufacturing network are nearly in completion. Based on these efforts, we have improved production efficiencies and created a more agile, key customer-focused organization. Given our enhanced foundation, we will look to accelerate opportunities to drive profitable growth. Mexico experienced another strong quarter as commodity fundamentals in the live and retail market remained attractive, given seasonalities, reduced availability of imports, and volume growth. In fresh, key customer relationships strengthened as net sales increased double digits, driven by the food service rotisserie channel. Our retail fresh branded portfolio also continues to drive diversification, and sales have increased over 6% compared to last year, led by Just Bare, which is over 2.5 times.
Our diversification efforts through value-added have experienced similar success as prepared continue to grow. In retail, Pilgrim's brand increased double digits compared to last year. Growth in the food service was driven by QSRs, which were up nearly 10% versus prior year. During our Investor Day in March, we highlighted a variety of products to reinforce our strategies and enhance our competitive advantage. As part of this, we announced an investment of $400 million last week to build a new fully cooked prepared foods plant in Walker County, Georgia. Given this investment, we can further capitalize on long-term growth trends for chicken in retail and food service. Prepared is a large category with an estimated size of $14 billion. An attractive growth profile also exists as net sales have grown annually by 6% since 2019.
Furthermore, consumer interest appears to be accelerating as sales have risen by 7% between the first half of 2024 and 2025. During the same period, our net sales have grown 21%. Momentum for our retail brands has also been remarkably strong. Over the past five years, household penetration has increased from 2.4% to 10%. Similar momentum exists in food service for our brands as Just Bare's volume has risen 15% annually since 2021. When our growth prospects are combined with strong consumer enthusiasm for our brands, we have a remarkable opportunity to accelerate the expansion of our prepared foods system. This investment will further diversify our portfolio, reduce reliance on outside suppliers, and leverage our fresh production capabilities. As a result, we can drive growth, enhance margins, and reduce volatility across our entire U.S. business.
In the meantime, we will expand fully cooked production in our existing prepared facilities at Moorfield and Waco. Given these investments, we will still expect to have sufficient capacity to meet our growing demand across retail and food service. Within retail, over one-third of fresh chicken is sold as antibiotic-free or organic chicken. Given extensive consumer interest, our K-30 business has become the leading provider of these higher-attributed, differentiated offerings. To further strengthen our competitive advantage and reinforce our leadership position, we have announced the conversion of a big bird plant to support key customer growth through a no antibiotics ever (NAE) and veg fed program in the K-30 segment. We remain committed to diversification across bird sizes and our ability to capture market upsides in the big bird commodity market.
As such, we reviewed our manufacturing footprint and identified opportunities to enhance our mix and unlock additional capacity to meet our growth and demand in that segment. Based on these efforts, we can maintain our current portfolio across all bird sizes, further increasing our upside potential while limiting downside risk. Equally important, we can generate higher, more consistent margins in the low to mid-double digits for our U.S. fresh chicken. In Mexico, our capacity expansion efforts also continue. Our projects in Veracruz and Merida remain on schedule, and we still anticipate each will become operational in the first half of 2026. Similarly, our prepared expansion continues to proceed as planned, and initial production is slated for the beginning of 2026. Given this work, we can continue to drive sales growth and reduce volatility of results.
When all these projects are at full capacity, we will increase the size of our business in Mexico by 20%. We remain committed to the other key projects and potential strategic acquisitions as discussed during our Investor Day. As such, we will continue to evaluate various alternatives and provide updates when available. With that, I'd like to ask our CFO, Matt Galvanoni, to discuss our financial results.
Matt Galvanoni (CFO)
Thank you, Claudio. Good morning, everyone. For the second quarter of 2025, net revenues were $4.76 billion versus $4.56 billion a year ago, with adjusted EBITDA of $686.9 million and a margin of 14.4% compared to $656.9 million and a 14.4% margin as well in Q2 last year. Adjusted EBITDA margins in Q2 were 17.1% in the U.S. compared to 16.7% a year ago. For our Europe business, adjusted EBITDA margins came in at 8.2% for Q2 compared to 7.4% last year.
In Mexico, adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2 was 16.3% versus 19.4% a year ago. U.S. net revenues were $2.82 billion versus $2.66 billion a year ago, a nearly 6% increase. Adjusted EBITDA in the U.S. for Q2 came in at $482.7 million compared to $444.6 million a year ago. Strength in the commodity chicken market, along with moderate grain input costs and continued operational improvements, drove strong year-over-year profitability improvement in our big bird business. Our K-30 and prepared food businesses have continued their momentum with increased distribution with key customers. K-30's profitability improved year-over-year. However, even with increased sales volumes, higher commodity chicken input costs were the headwind to prepared foods profitability. Small bird performance in QSRs remained very strong, offsetting a more challenging pricing environment in Delaware. In our U.S.
GAAP results, we did incur legal settlement expenses of $58 million in the quarter, primarily due to reaching settlements with certain parties associated with the ongoing boilers litigation. In Europe, adjusted EBITDA in Q2 was $111.8 million versus $96.2 million last year. The business has benefited from its continued structural reorganization, including integration of support functions and manufacturing optimization programs, while cultivating key customer partnerships with continued innovative offerings. As we begin to wind down our reorganization efforts, restructuring charges trended lower to $3.5 million during the quarter. Mexico generated $92.3 million in adjusted EBITDA in Q2 compared to $115.1 million last year. The Mexican business continued to demonstrate its strength with adjusted EBITDA margins greater than 16%, even though facing year-over-year FX headwinds of 13% and bird disease challenges during the quarter.
SG&A costs in the quarter were lower year-over-year, primarily due to a decrease in the previously mentioned legal settlement costs. Also, in the quarter, we incurred marketing investment costs and additional incentive compensation expense based on the progress of our year-to-date results. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 25.1%. We continue to anticipate that the full-year effective tax rate will approximate 25%. We have a strong balance sheet, and we continue to emphasize cash flows from operating activities, management of working capital, and disciplined investment in high-return projects. During Q2, we reduced our gross leverage by $90 million through open market purchases of our own debt. Even with the payment of the $1.5 billion special dividend in April, our net debt totaled less than $2.3 billion, with a leverage ratio of less than one time our last 12 months adjusted EBITDA at the end of the quarter.
Following the April dividend payment and debt repurchases during the period, we had over $1.9 billion in total cash and available credit at the end of the quarter. We have no short-term immediate cash requirements with our bonds maturing between 2031 and 2034, and our U.S. credit facility does not expire until 2028. With the strength of our liquidity positions, the Pilgrim's Board yesterday declared a special dividend of $2.10 per share, or approximately $500 million. The record date for the dividend will be August 20, 2025, with a payment date of September 3, 2025. When adjusting for this dividend, our net leverage ratio would be 1.15 times adjusted EBITDA, still well below our target of between two to three times. Net interest expense for the quarter totaled $31.5 million.
With the announcement of the upcoming dividend, we anticipate our full-year net interest expense to be between $115 and $125 million this year. As discussed at Investor Day in March and demonstrated by our announcement last week of our new U.S. prepared foods plant in Walker County, Georgia, we will continue to invest in growth. We are very excited to move forward in Georgia, and with this project, it will create over 630 jobs and will expand our branded prepared foods capacity beginning in the first half of 2027. Upon reaching full capacity at this new plant, we estimate the U.S. prepared foods business will increase its net sales by over 40% from its current levels. We spent $161 million of CapEx in the second quarter, an increase of $63 million from the first quarter.
In the U.S., we made progress towards the conversion of our Russellville plant to support a retail key customer in the first quarter of 2026. Also, in Mexico, our investments in fresh and prepared continued progress and remain on schedule. Once these projects finalize and are at full utilization, we estimate the Mexican business will increase its net sales by approximately 20% from its current levels. These projects and prepared foods, K-30, and Mexico taken together require approximately $650 million of incremental growth capital. We will continue to ramp up capital spending throughout this year to support these various projects. However, we anticipate total CapEx spending in 2025 to be slightly less than our original estimate of $750 million, likely closer to $650 to $700 million.
These near-term growth projects align to our overall strategy to portfolio diversification, focus on key customers, operational excellence, and our commitment to team member health and safety. Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks. Please open the call for questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. In the interest of allowing equal access, request that you limit your questions to two, then resign the queue for any follow-up. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchscreen phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys to minimize background noise. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Benjamin M. Theurer from Barclays Bank PLC. Please go ahead.
Benjamin Theurer (Managing Director)
Yeah, good morning, Fabio, Matt. Thanks for taking my question.
Congrats on another very strong quarter. The first one, actually, just following up on some of your closing comments right now, Matt, in terms of the CapEx, I would say, and so on. Just wanted to clarify the investment in Georgia, as you've announced last week. How should we think about the spend of the $400 million? You said it's going to ramp up somewhat in the second half and then probably going to go hiring in 2027. The bulk of it, I guess, will be in 2026 CapEx. Just to understand a little bit the cadence of those $400 million associated to this investment, is that using chicken that you already produce, or does it include additional chicken slaughter capacity just on that one? I have a quick follow-up question.
Matt Galvanoni (CFO)
Sure. Thanks, Ed. Good morning.
I think when you think about that $400 million that we announced last week, think this year kind of in that $50 to $70 million range, next year to that $250 to $300 million, the residual in 2027. Timing can fluctuate a little bit. The vast majority of the spend will be in 2026 because we anticipate this becoming up and running in the first half of 2027. I give you that as my kind of basis. Fabio, you want to talk about the chicken side of it?
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
Yeah, Ben, thank you for the question. As we mentioned, we want to improve our portfolio by increasing our presence in the prepared foods and branded arena. I think this plant is in time to support us in the growth of our Just Bare brand. The Just Bare brand is a differentiated brand. It is no antibiotics ever, minimally processed.
As we mentioned, it has experienced phenomenal growth. Since it uses no antibiotics ever meat, and we are the largest producer of no antibiotics ever meat in the United States, it will be normal for us to support these prepared foods with our internal production. Of course, in all of our prepared foods, we operate as an independent business. We have independent P&Ls. We actually have independent P&Ls by client, but the prepared foods business is operated as an independent business. It can source meat from any supplier as long as it is in line with our superior quality standards.
Benjamin Theurer (Managing Director)
Okay. Got it. In general, you've highlighted in your prepared remarks that some of the production data is, I mean, the ability is getting better. We're seeing more supply.
It seems like particularly the big bird rate, the birds with big birds, the big birds are gaining a lot of share. Obviously, there's another boost to the supply side here. If you look at the supply versus demand situation, and maybe putting that beef shortage aside for a moment, are we getting to the point that there's coming too much supply on because now all these excesses all of a sudden do turn into chicken placements, plus we have that weight gain, and we're getting a little bit of an oversupply situation here, or just not yet because of the demand for chicken being so strong?
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
I think that's a great point, Ben. I think what we're going to do is step back and look at the expectations for supply of chicken in Q3.
I think we continue to see the same structure as we saw last year and this year. We have a lower layer flock, but it's more productive because it's younger. We're seeing more egg sets, and we've been seeing this throughout 2024 and 2025. We're still with the hatchability issue, and 2025 has actually been lower than 2024. We always have an improvement because of seasonality and the weather pattern, and we have improved hatchability but lower as we had last year. We're still below the 2024 levels that were already record low. Because of that, even with an increase in the egg sets, the chick placement has not followed. As you mentioned, we always have also an improvement in livability in this period of the year because, once again, of the weather, which translated to close to 1% increase in head counts.
I think because of the profitability of the segments, we are seeing an increase, especially in the big bird segment. That increase in that segment accounted for 1% increase in live weights. That's why we saw a 2% increase, close to 2% increase in the overall availability of meat for the domestic market. If you look at the demand and you look at what's happening in both retail that is gaining market share because of the living increases in inflation and the concerns of the consumers about spending, retail was increasing by 2.4%. On the food service, despite the reduction in the traffic, we're seeing chicken gaining market share and increasing manufacturation to the account that we increased the sales of chicken in the food service by 2.7%. When you look at that increase in demand, and as you mentioned.
All the challenges in pricing and availability of the other proteins, I think the expectation increase of USDA of close to 1.5% for the year, it's in line with the demand. I think that's being what we're seeing lately on the prices of boneless grass meat.
Matt Galvanoni (CFO)
Okay. Perfect. Thank you very much, Fabio. I'll pass it on.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes from Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Andrew Strelzik (Equity Reseach Analyst)
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask another U.S. chicken supply chain question. We've seen pullet placements down year over year three of the last four months, and that comes on the heels of what was an extended period of pretty consistent increases. Is there something changing there, or what is driving the reversal? Maybe you can kind of talk through what the dynamics are at play there.
More broadly, can you give us an update on the industry production constraints and where the industry stands with those now versus maybe a year ago or so? Thanks.
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
Yeah. Thank you, Andrew. Like I mentioned, on the structure of the industry, and you're right on pullet placements, I think what the industry is trying to have is a more productive flock. I think the hatchability issue has been very impactful. If you look at the hatchery utilization, we had the highest level ever. I think we've probably tapped the capacity. I think all the hatcheries are operating more days than they should, reducing a little bit the maintenance. If you have eggs that will not hatch or a lower productive layer, you're in trouble because you're compromising the bottleneck, which is the hatchery. That's why the industry is trying to get a more productive and younger layer flock.
It's all from there in terms of the capacity of the industry to increase production. I think what the industry is trying is to gain production through the live weights. I think that is what is creating this higher growth on the big bird segment. It is our industry way of trying to extend production without being able to expand the number of heads that we are producing. I think overall, it's also matching with the demand for chicken. When you look at by segment as well, we're seeing the bone-in category being more challenged in growth than the big bird category. I think we always mention about the versatility of chicken, both in retail and food service. It's not only the center of the plate, but it's also as an ingredient. I think the big bird breast meat is a perfect match as an ingredient.
At the same time, we're also seeing more deboning of the dark meat. I think we've been talking for many years about the change in demographics and the change in tasting in the domestic market, U.S. market. We used to be, in the past, a white meat-only market exporting the leg quarters. Over the last 5 to 10 years, we saw a significant growth in the dark meat consumption. Today, at retail, boneless thighs are at the same price as boneless breasts. You can see that there is a strong demand for the boneless thighs in retail, and that is helping the big bird category as well, as we are being able to debone the leg quarters and gain a better value than exporting leg quarters. That's super helpful. Switching gears to Europe, I'm curious how you're thinking about the margin progression from here.
You had been expecting a slower pace of year-over-year margin expansion, and we did see that this quarter. Sequentially, it was only very slightly. I guess, what caused that slower pace of sequential margin improvement? Are you expecting to see that re-accelerate over the rest of the year sequentially to get to kind of a steady year-over-year improvement? I know I'm mixing sequential and year-over-year, but I'm trying to get a sense for how to think about the improvement in EU margins from here over the back half of the year. Thanks.
Andrew Strelzik (Equity Reseach Analyst)
We always have a little bit more seasonality in Europe, and typically, the second semester is better, with Q4 being much stronger than the first semester. What's happening in Europe is that we saw the consumer sentiment improved a little, but it's still at a lower level. We saw the growth at grocery really limited in this quarter.
There was a significant increase in the cost of living in Europe because of the increase in the national security cost for companies, and that impacted a little bit both the consumer sentiment and the demand. Nonetheless, we saw chicken continue to be the fastest-growing category in there. We saw a little bit of reduced demand in the lamb and pork categories, which are more expensive than chicken. Going forward, we continue to see the improvement of our operations with the consolidation of our back office and our operational network. We are continuing to see more innovation, and I think that's the most important point for Europe. We will continue to innovate to help our key customers to grow faster than category averages.
To your point, there is always a seasonality in Europe, and Q2 typically is superior or better than the first semester, with Q4 being the strongest of all.
Got it. Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes from Pooran Sharma from Stephens Inc. Please go ahead.
Pooran Sharma (Managing Director and Equity Research)
Congrats on the quarter. I appreciate the question here. Just wanted to first start out, and sorry to belabor the point on egg set here, but you mentioned earlier on that we're maxed out in egg sets. Just looking at the data, there was a pretty big jump from the start of 2024 to 2025. I think we went from like 240 million a week to about 250 million a week.
I just wanted to get a sense of how much more growth do you think we can see in egg sets without seeing any major investment in any sort of hatchery capacity?
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
Yeah. I think you're absolutely right with it. It is really going to be really hard for us to get any more egg sets or chicks placed, right, if we don't have investments in hatchery capacity. As I mentioned, what the industry is trying to have is a younger layer flock that is also more productive but has better hatchability. To my point, if the bottleneck in our industry is the hatch, we are not being able to capture all the demand upside that we are seeing with production. When you look into the numbers, in Q3, we are seeing an expected from USDA close to 1.9% as well, together with what we have as of today.
I think we'll be pretty much in balance in terms of supply and demand. You're right. The issue for us continues. I think we always have this question when we have the hatchability back, right? What we're seeing year over year is that the hatchability has not improved, that there is some seasonality. We always see some improvements during the summertime. I think it continues to be the challenge that we have dealing with this new breed. As we mentioned, until a new breed comes, and we haven't seen any evidence of a new breed coming, this is the best breed in terms of performance, in terms of feed conversion, and in terms of yield. There is actually no intention on our industry to go back to older breeds that are less productive just to get a better hatch. I think we'll continue to struggle with this.
We're learning how to manage better, especially the male. It is, once again, an animal that gains weight, and then managing the live parts is very difficult. I think we'll get some improvements, and we'll get a hatchability, a little improvement here and there over time, which will allow our industry to get in line with the strong demand that we are seeing.
Pooran Sharma (Managing Director and Equity Research)
Appreciate the color there. Just as a follow-up, on that, the egg set and just the supply, I think fall to wintertime is when you typically see seasonal production cuts by the industry.
In your comments earlier, when you talked about USDA being up, their estimates being up 1.5%, that being an adequate level of demand, I was wondering if you think that the industry will need to see deeper production cuts than they enacted last year, or do you think production cuts will be at a similar pace to what we saw last year? Would love to get your thoughts around those seasonal production cuts.
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
Yeah. I think it's the normal seasonality for our industry, right, to have seasonal cuts for Q4. As we know, there is Thanksgiving, and Christmas, which we see a lot of demand for turkey, for ham, for other types of meat, and we see a decrease in the promotion activity of chicken, which will lead to lower demand, as expected.
I think it's the normal seasonality year over year, and there is the normal seasonal cuts from our industry. We will always match our production to the demand of our key customers, and as we saw the numbers and we discussed with them what their promotional activity is, we will support those plans as we do every year. I think during Q3 and Q4, we are also seeing that there will be even higher challenges on beef and pork. I think we're expecting, or USDA is expecting, a sharp reduction in production of beef for Q4, and there have been some issues with the live operation of pork, where we're seeing the PD virus impacting some of the operations.
There is a discussion about weights and heads in the pork, but we're seeing that Q4, in terms of availability of total meat for the United States, will be close to 1%, which is one of the lowest numbers we've seen, which tends to benefit the demand for chicken. As I mentioned, it is normal to see a reduction in the demand for chicken during Q4.
Pooran Sharma (Managing Director and Equity Research)
Appreciate the comment.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes from Guilherme Palhares from Santander. Please go ahead.
Guilherme Palhares (Senior Equity Analyst)
Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking the question. You reported a 5% growth in COGS in the U.S. with a 1% growth in volumes, right?
If you could go through a bit of the main drivers here and going forward, looking at all the discussions that we're having about visas and the situation of labor in the U.S., what could you expect going forward in terms of wage inflation and factor in the issues in some of the other area or not?
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
I think that's something that we've been looking closely at, right, on the labor market in the United States. Our strategy has been to follow, of course, all the policies from the United States. We saw some humanitarian visas being revoked in the United States, especially for Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba, and Haiti. We had some employees with those visas, and because of the revocation, we had change from those team members.
Our strategy has been to overstaff our plants during Q2 to prepare for those potential impacts in the labor market, and that's how we've been operating. In Q2, despite one of the best turnovers we ever had, I think we always have a policy of being competitive in the marketplace. We are inferred to. We have a process where we look plant by plant and region by region, and we are competitive and courageous in those regions. We've been able to fully staff our plants. Actually, during Q2, to prepare for those actions by the government, we were overstaffing our plants. We ran, as a number, at 105% staff. We control the staffing in every single plant. We have great methods to staff perfectly to the mix that we are running. During Q2, we were 105% staffed, especially to prepare for those impacts.
So far, we've been able to fully staff our plants. Like I mentioned, we are running the best mix that we can, and that's what we saw in the performance during this quarter. As far as going in the future on labor inflation, I think the numbers we are seeing for the entire United States is that has not been a significant issue. Of course, we will need to wait and see how the economy continues to go. We are seeing some reduction in labor in the food service arena, and we've been benefiting from that. Like I mentioned, we are very competitive where we have our plants.
Guilherme Palhares (Senior Equity Analyst)
That's super clear. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes from Heather Jones from Heather Jones Research. Please go ahead.
Heather Jones (Founder)
Good morning. Thanks for the question.
I wanted to go back to the Walker plant and how y'all are going to be supplying that. It looks like the majority of your slaughter plants that are located around that area. Are small bird, but then there's some larger ones, I guess, in Alabama. I guess my question is, are you planning on converting maybe some small bird capacity, particularly given the demand dynamics in that segment? Are you planning on converting to capacity, or would you pull it from plants that are further away? Wondering if you could give us more insight on that.
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
Yeah. I think we're always looking for the portfolio, right, Heather? What is the segment that is growing? What is the segment that is more challenging? As I mentioned, I think the bone-in category has been the one that has been challenged over the last period of time.
We are the leader in that category. We have great key customers. We saw some of these key customers in the food service arena growing much faster than the category averages. We're seeing great profitability in those plants. Nonetheless, we see that the market that is growing is more for us, the cage-ready and the big bird segments. As always, we will adjust our portfolio to what we look at, not only the right now impact, but also looking going forward. I think when we look at where we are growing, we are growing in retail ahead of the category in the fresh. More than five times what the industry grew. We actually improved way ahead of the category average, once again, because of the differentiated offerings that we have. It's not only the region. It is about the offerings that we have. We have the no antibiotics ever offerings.
We have the veggie-fed offerings. We have also the organic offerings. It's more about where you are rather than just the region. I think Heather, Claudia was mentioning before relative to our prepared foods business. They really do look and source from multiple places. They'll source both internally from our own plants, but they also source quite a bit outside of Pilgrim's facilities too. It really is making sure that they have the best cost profile. Sourcing of the plants in Walker County will come from a variety of different places.
Heather Jones (Founder)
Okay. But y'all are the—you said that that's going to be NAE, and y'all are the largest supplier of NAE, largest producer of NAE in the U.S.?
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
Yes. That's correct.
Heather Jones (Founder)
Okay. For years, you guys had said in the U.S. your target was a third, a third, a third. Clearly, there's some changes going on, pretty big changes.
I was wondering if you could. Maybe not definitively, but sort of qualitatively, give us an updated thought on what does that ideal mix look like now. For you guys in the U.S.?
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
Yeah. I think, like I mentioned, we're always looking at what you mentioned. In terms of the portfolio, right? We look at the market. It is kind of a third, a third, a third with the big bird growing faster than the other segments. On the small birds, as I mentioned, the challenge is on the bone-in category. We are also seeing the food service for small birds, especially on the QSRs. We talk about the Sandwich Wars, right, for many years. We saw some growth in that category.
That is another thing that we can do: increase a little bit the live weights on the small bird category to support the growth in the food service, both distribution and QSR on the small bird. We still believe that being a balanced approach is the right approach. As we mentioned, we are growing faster in retail because of our differentiated offerings and because of our key customers growing faster than the categories. We will need to convert one big bird plant to a cage-ready plant. We are finding bottlenecks in all of our big bird plants so we can continue to have this balanced approach without losing our exposure to the commodity markets that we know are very strong right now.
Heather Jones (Founder)
Thank you so much.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes from Peter Galbo from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Peter Galbo (Director and Head of Us Consumer Staples Equity Research)
Hey, guys. Good morning. Question for you on Mexico specifically.
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
We saw some volatility in the live markets in Mexico during the quarter. I think not only on the demand side but on the supply side. We saw some increase in diseases during this quarter in the live market. We have these small operators that will come and go as the live market is strong or weak, which we always mention, amplify the volatility in the live market in Mexico. Because the diseases impacted the companies with lower, let's say, biosecurity, these small players were impacted. That created a small reduction in the supply during this quarter, which increased prices in the live market. The live market was actually the most profitable segment in Mexico during this quarter. Going forward, we continue to execute our strategy of growing in Mexico. As I mentioned, we are expanding our Merida production or extending our production to the peninsula in Merida.
We are expanding our production in Veracruz to support the live markets and the small bird markets. We're also expanding our prepared foods operation in Mexico that is growing double digits to further diversify our portfolio and reduce a little bit the volatility of results in the region. When all those projects are at full speed, we expect our operations in Mexico to be 20% higher than what we have today. Peter, just to complement what Claudia said, kind of relative to FX. You had mentioned, and I had mentioned, my comparison marks the 13% kind of headwind that we saw year over year in the quarter. When we look at Q3, of course, I cannot predict where the PISA will go for the rest of the quarter, but kind of where it sits right now versus where the average was in Q3 of last year, it's basically on par.
We really, at this point, don't see a real big FX impact one way or the other at this very stage for Q3 of 2025. Dealing with the FX, FX also impacted a lot of the grain in Mexico is imported from the United States. FX was actually a benefit. On the other hand, there is a big export of meat from the United States to Mexico. 20% of the exports of U.S. are to Mexico. It's an important market for especially quarters, but also some boneless breast. I think the FX will create the American meat to be a little more expensive in Mexico, which creates the opportunity for our Mexican operations.
Peter Galbo (Director and Head of Us Consumer Staples Equity Research)
Thanks for that, guys. Maybe just to pivot. Obviously, the special dividend now a second quarter in a row, which I think this one was maybe a bit more of a surprise than the last one.
Just, Fabio, a change in capital allocation philosophy? This is pretty abnormal, I guess, to do two in one year. It's going to be about $2 billion, at least at this point. I just want to understand if there's been a change in how the board views capital allocation, how the relationship with the parent company has changed as you contemplate kind of another round of special dividends. Thanks very much.
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
Sure, Peter. No, I don't think that there's been any change. We're always looking to create shareholder value, right? As we mentioned and as we discussed in our investor day, we have several avenues of growth in our business. We're always looking for acquisitions, of course. We're looking to grow our prepared foods brand and to diversify the geographies where we're in.
I think as we're seeing multiples and some of the acquisitions a little bit more difficult, especially in the U.S., we engage in organic growth. That's why we announced the new plant for prepared foods, again, to grow and diversify our portfolio. We are growing in Mexico. We are looking for opportunities in Europe as well. I think that avenue of growth will continue. In the meantime, I think the business has been really strong. We are all discussing the results, right? I think we've been increasing our cash. That position is not efficient for us. Matt mentioned that we are below one-time levered. We always have the target of being two to three times.
With the expectations that we have for the rest of the year and the strong cash flow generations that we had, once again, we got to a position where our balance sheet is out of where we think is optimal. We decided to do this special dividend. We will continue to do this special dividend. We believe that our leverage ratio is getting to a place that it's not the optimal capital for us. We also have share buybacks, potential share buybacks that we discussed. We have bond purchases that we discussed. I think we're always looking for all the alternatives to create shareholder value. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes from Priya Joy Ohri-Gupta with Barclays Bank PLC. Please go ahead.
Priya Ohri-Gupta (Managing Director and Fixed Income Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning. Thank you for squeezing me in. Actually, I would love to just follow up on that very last point that you made.
With regards to bond repurchases that we were just commenting and Fabio, you mentioned as well how sort of under-levered you are versus the target. Could you walk us through. Why you guys have been utilizing open market bond repurchases just given that there really isn't any immediate need to reduce your debt balance?
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
Yeah, I agree with Matt. I think really it's just been more opportunistic. We disclosed in the 10Q that the board, when we discussed it towards the end of the first quarter, they just gave us more of an authorization to continue to repurchase as we deem appropriate. I think at the time, we just found that there has been some availability. The market was good, and we would buy when we felt it was the right price and just take more opportunistically than anything else. Not a huge number of dollars.
We've got authorization to do more, but with the dividend here, a little bit more of a pivot on that one, I think, going forward than what we did here in Q2.
Priya Ohri-Gupta (Managing Director and Fixed Income Research Analyst)
Okay. That's helpful. Then just on the interest expense guidance. Is it fair to assume that the increase relative to what you talked about before is being driven by a lower cash balance, or is there anything else going on?
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
Absolutely correct. It's the lower cash balance. Just we will say our gross interest expense is actually coming down a little bit because of the buybacks of the debt that we were just talking about. The cash balance will be lower, and the assumed interest income will be lower just with the dividend to be paid here in the beginning of September.
Priya Ohri-Gupta (Managing Director and Fixed Income Research Analyst)
Okay. Then just one final question on the Mexico CapEx piece.
You talked about the $650 million in aggregate. Can you just remind us sort of how to think about the cadence of that year by year? When are we to hit the $650 million in total, and what we should be thinking about for that piece for this year and next year? Thanks.
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
When we're thinking about the $650 million, kind of in general, because that number really included Mexico, Walker County, the new prepared plant, and also our conversion of Russellville that we've been talking about. Where we're at for 2025 is somewhere in that $200 million-ish, $225 million range. 2026 in the $350 million, and then the kind of residual in 2027. Do understand that Mexico and Russellville will be completed here. The dates we were talking about. Russellville will really be finished here in the first quarter of 2026.
Most of Mexico will be done in the first half of 2026. It's the Walker County, which we talked about opening the plant in the first half of 2027. Some of that capital will drag, of course, into that.
Priya Ohri-Gupta (Managing Director and Fixed Income Research Analyst)
Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. This concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference over to Fabio Sandri for any closing comments.
Fabio Sandri (President and CEO)
Thank you, everyone, for attending today's call. In the second quarter of 2025, we achieved strong operational and financial performance. As such, I would like to thank our team members for their continued discipline and ownership of our values, strategies, and methods. Given the solid foundation, we can continue to make investments to grow our company, strengthening our competitive advantages, enhancing margins, and reducing volatility of results. These efforts must continue with a relentless focus on team member safety and well-being.
As a result, we can achieve our vision to be the best and most respected company in our industry, creating a better future for our team.
Operator (participant)
Look forward to accelerating our efforts during the second half of 2025 and beyond. Thank you, everyone.
Andrew Rojeski (Head of Strategy, Investor Relations and Sustainability)
Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.