PC
PROSPECT CAPITAL CORP (PSEC)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- NII of $83.5M ($0.19/share) declined sequentially from $0.20 and y/y from $0.23; Total Investment Income (revenue) was $170.7M, down q/q from $185.5M and y/y from $202.2M .
- EPS beat consensus while revenue was slightly below: Primary EPS $0.19 vs $0.14 consensus (beat), revenue $170.7M vs $174.3M consensus (miss)* .
- NAV/share fell to $7.25 (from $7.84 q/q; $8.99 y/y) on sizable unrealized depreciation, notably in control and non‑control investments .
- Liquidity and capital stack remain conservative: $1.72B cash + undrawn RC, net debt/total assets 28.7%, 87.5% of capital unsecured debt + preferred; company repaid March 2025 convert and tendered 39.6% of 2026 notes .
- Dividend maintained at $0.045/month for May–Aug 2025; management continues rotating into first‑lien senior secured loans and exiting lower‑yielding/variable real estate and CLO equity exposures .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Portfolio de‑risking/rotation: first‑lien exposure rose to 65.5% (up ~650 bps y/y); subordinated structured notes down to 4.2% of assets (‑310 bps y/y) . “We expect to continue to amortize and exit our subordinated structured notes portfolio and to reinvest primarily in first lien senior secured middle market loans.” .
- Credit quality and core yields: non‑accruals 0.6% of total assets; performing interest‑bearing assets yielded 11.5% as of March . “Our interest income in the March quarter was 93% of total investment income, reflecting a strong recurring revenue profile.” .
- Balance sheet strength: $1.716B liquidity, net debt/total assets 28.7%, largely unsecured funding and extended ladder; repaid March 2025 convertible and executed a tender for 2026 notes .
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What Went Wrong
- NAV and GAAP earnings pressure: NAV/share fell to $7.25; GAAP net loss to common of $(171.3)M driven by net realized and unrealized losses, including $(160.9)M net unrealized .
- Top‑line softness: Total Investment Income declined q/q and y/y; revenue slightly missed consensus* .
- Other income normalization at NPRC: management noted exit‑related “other income” from real estate slowed alongside rates volatility; near‑term contributions may remain subdued until exit pacing normalizes .
Financial Results
Headline P&L and NAV (FY2025 quarters; oldest → newest)
Q3 YoY (Mar quarter)
Consensus vs Actual (Primary EPS and Revenue; FY2025, oldest → newest)
- Q3 2025 result: EPS beat (+$0.05), revenue miss (‑$3.6M)* .
Portfolio mix (fair value, % of investments)
Key KPIs (oldest → newest)
Guidance Changes
Capital actions during/around the quarter (context): repaid $156.2M March 2025 notes; launched and accepted tender for 3.706% 2026 notes ($135.7M accepted, 39.6% of $342.9M outstanding) .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “In the March quarter, our net investment income, or NII, was $83.5 million, $0.19 per common share. Our NAV was $3.2 billion, $7.25 per common share.”
- “Our subordinated structured notes portfolio…represented 4.2% of our investment portfolio…We expect to continue to amortize and exit [it] and to reinvest primarily in first lien senior secured middle market loans.”
- “The remaining real estate property portfolio includes 58 properties that paid us an income yield of 4.5% for the March quarter…We expect to continue to redeploy future asset sale proceeds primarily into…first lien middle market loans.”
- “Our company has locked in a ladder of liabilities extending 27 years into the future…combined balance sheet cash and undrawn revolving credit facility commitments stood at $1.7 billion as of March.”
- On NPRC/other income: “Exit‑related income…slowed a bit, as the Fed hiked, and in particular, 10‑year treasuries spiked…We think things are starting to normalize.”
Q&A Highlights
- NPRC/other income trajectory: Management expects exit‑related income to normalize as market volatility subsides; remains focused on orderly, value‑maximizing NPRC reductions .
- Dividend coverage strategy: Levers include shifting toward lower/middle‑market loans with wider spreads and higher SOFR floors, rotating from low‑GAAP CLO equity and lower‑yielding real estate, and judiciously increasing leverage from a conservative base (~30% debt/total cap) .
- Funding mix: Company will continue to prioritize both unsecured debt and preferreds, noting programmatic access even through volatility and the value of diversified funding channels .
Estimates Context
- Q3 FY25 EPS beat: $0.19 vs $0.14 consensus; revenue miss: $170.7M vs $174.3M consensus*. Near‑term estimate revisions may reflect lower “other income” and persistent NAV pressure, partially offset by higher first‑lien mix and yield‑lift from portfolio rotation .
- Backdrop: EPS outperformed consensus in each of FY2025’s first three quarters, while revenue tracked modestly below single‑point consensus each quarter, consistent with de‑emphasizing non‑recurring “other income” streams*.
- S&P Global estimates used for consensus/actual comparison for Primary EPS and Revenue.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Core income resilient but trending lower as the portfolio intentionally rotates away from higher‑variability NPRC/CLO equity sources toward first‑lien loans; this supports EPS beats even as revenue normalizes and “other income” moderates .
- NAV attrition is the central debate: sizable unrealized losses weighed on GAAP EPS and NAV; watch forward marks on control/non‑control positions as a stock narrative driver .
- Credit remains sound: non‑accruals are low and yields robust; weighted average portfolio company EBITDA drifted down, but leverage is broadly stable vs prior quarters .
- Funding/liquidity provide optionality: sizeable revolver capacity, long liability ladder, active liability management (convertible repayment; 2026 note tender) mitigate refinancing risk into 2026 .
- Dividend maintained at $0.045/month through August; management outlined multiple levers (mix, floors, leverage) to support coverage into a lower‑SOFR backdrop .
- Near‑term catalysts: additional NPRC asset sales and CLO equity amortization/redeployment to lift NII; monitoring of rate trajectory/floors and origination pace vs repayments will shape top‑line trends .
- Risk watch‑list: further unrealized depreciation, slower exit markets dampening other income, and any uptick in non‑accruals against a softer macro tape .
Notes and sources
- Q3 FY2025 8‑K (Item 2.02) press release and financial statements .
- Q3 FY2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) .
- Prior‑quarter press releases and transcripts for trend analysis: Q2 FY2025 (Dec‑24) ; Q1 FY2025 (Sep‑24) .
- Capital actions press releases: tender launch (Apr 9, 2025) ; tender results (Apr 18, 2025) .
- Scheduling/housekeeping: earnings release timing (May 6, 2025) .
Estimate data disclaimer
- *Values retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ) via GetEstimates.