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PC

PROSPECT CAPITAL CORP (PSEC)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • NII of $83.5M ($0.19/share) declined sequentially from $0.20 and y/y from $0.23; Total Investment Income (revenue) was $170.7M, down q/q from $185.5M and y/y from $202.2M .
  • EPS beat consensus while revenue was slightly below: Primary EPS $0.19 vs $0.14 consensus (beat), revenue $170.7M vs $174.3M consensus (miss)* .
  • NAV/share fell to $7.25 (from $7.84 q/q; $8.99 y/y) on sizable unrealized depreciation, notably in control and non‑control investments .
  • Liquidity and capital stack remain conservative: $1.72B cash + undrawn RC, net debt/total assets 28.7%, 87.5% of capital unsecured debt + preferred; company repaid March 2025 convert and tendered 39.6% of 2026 notes .
  • Dividend maintained at $0.045/month for May–Aug 2025; management continues rotating into first‑lien senior secured loans and exiting lower‑yielding/variable real estate and CLO equity exposures .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Portfolio de‑risking/rotation: first‑lien exposure rose to 65.5% (up ~650 bps y/y); subordinated structured notes down to 4.2% of assets (‑310 bps y/y) . “We expect to continue to amortize and exit our subordinated structured notes portfolio and to reinvest primarily in first lien senior secured middle market loans.” .
    • Credit quality and core yields: non‑accruals 0.6% of total assets; performing interest‑bearing assets yielded 11.5% as of March . “Our interest income in the March quarter was 93% of total investment income, reflecting a strong recurring revenue profile.” .
    • Balance sheet strength: $1.716B liquidity, net debt/total assets 28.7%, largely unsecured funding and extended ladder; repaid March 2025 convertible and executed a tender for 2026 notes .
  • What Went Wrong

    • NAV and GAAP earnings pressure: NAV/share fell to $7.25; GAAP net loss to common of $(171.3)M driven by net realized and unrealized losses, including $(160.9)M net unrealized .
    • Top‑line softness: Total Investment Income declined q/q and y/y; revenue slightly missed consensus* .
    • Other income normalization at NPRC: management noted exit‑related “other income” from real estate slowed alongside rates volatility; near‑term contributions may remain subdued until exit pacing normalizes .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and NAV (FY2025 quarters; oldest → newest)

MetricQ1 2025 (Sep-24)Q2 2025 (Dec-24)Q3 2025 (Mar-25)
Total Investment Income ($M)$196.3 $185.5 $170.7
Net Investment Income ($M)$89.9 $86.4 $83.5
NII/Share ($)$0.21 $0.20 $0.19
GAAP Net Income to Common ($M)$(165.1) $(31.0) $(171.3)
GAAP EPS ($)$(0.38) $(0.07) $(0.39)
NAV/Share ($)$8.10 $7.84 $7.25

Q3 YoY (Mar quarter)

MetricQ3 2024 (Mar-24)Q3 2025 (Mar-25)
Total Investment Income ($M)$202.2 $170.7
NII ($M)$94.4 $83.5
NII/Share ($)$0.23 $0.19
GAAP Net Income to Common ($M)$113.9 $(171.3)
NAV/Share ($)$8.99 $7.25

Consensus vs Actual (Primary EPS and Revenue; FY2025, oldest → newest)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Primary EPS – Actual ($)0.21 0.20 0.19
Primary EPS – Consensus ($)0.17*0.14*0.14*
Revenue – Actual ($M)196.3 185.5 170.7
Revenue – Consensus ($M)202.3*189.7*174.3*
  • Q3 2025 result: EPS beat (+$0.05), revenue miss (‑$3.6M)* .

Portfolio mix (fair value, % of investments)

CategorySep 30, 2024Dec 31, 2024Mar 31, 2025
First Lien Debt64.9% 64.9% 65.5%
Second Lien Debt11.1% 10.2% 10.5%
Subordinated Structured Notes6.2% 5.8% 4.2%
Unsecured Debt0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Equity Investments17.7% 19.0% 19.7%
Mix with Underlying Collateral82.2% 80.9% 80.2%

Key KPIs (oldest → newest)

KPISep 30, 2024Dec 31, 2024Mar 31, 2025
Non‑Accruals (% of total assets)0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
Annualized Yield – All Investments9.7% 9.1% 9.2%
Annualized Yield – Performing Interest‑Bearing11.8% 11.2% 11.5%
% Interest‑Bearing Assets at Floating81.0% 79.8% 77.5%
Net of Cash Debt / Total Assets29.7% 28.1% 28.7%
Liquidity (Cash + Undrawn RC, $M)1,631 1,880 1,716
Unencumbered Assets ($M)4,853 4,764 4,440
Wtd Avg EBITDA / Portfolio Co. ($000s)104,682 101,644 97,732
Middle‑Market Wtd Avg Net Leverage5.7x 6.1x 5.6x

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Common monthly dividendFeb–Apr 2025$0.045/share per month
Common monthly dividendMay–Aug 2025$0.045/share per month (May–Aug 2025) Maintained rate
Floating‑Rate Preferred dividendJun–Aug 2025$0.135417 per month Announced
7.50% Preferred dividendJun–Aug 2025$0.156250 per month Announced
5.50% Preferred dividendJun–Aug 2025$0.114583 per month Announced

Capital actions during/around the quarter (context): repaid $156.2M March 2025 notes; launched and accepted tender for 3.706% 2026 notes ($135.7M accepted, 39.6% of $342.9M outstanding) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 FY25)Previous Mentions (Q2 FY25)Current Period (Q3 FY25)Trend
Rotation to first‑lien senior secured loansEmphasized; first‑lien mix reached 65% y/y; reducing CLO equity and real estate 64.9% first‑lien; plan to amortize CLO equity and redeploy 65.5% first‑lien; CLO equity 4.2% of assets; continue exits Continued execution
NPRC real estate “other income”Cautious on exit‑related income; rightsizing distribution 6.9% income yield in Dec quarter; exits continue Other income slower; expect normalization as markets stabilize Normalization pending
PIK incomePIK down ~50% vs June ’24; $20M in Dec $19.5M in Mar; down vs prior periods Lower PIK, more cash income
Dividend coverage leversDistribution rightsized to $0.045 Focus on lower‑middle market spreads/floors, rotate from CLO equity/RE to lift yields; under‑levered balance sheet Multiple levers to support NII
Funding mix & accessRevolver upsized/extended; IG ratings reaffirmed $1.9B liquidity; unsecured term debt 85% of indebtedness; 48 banks $1.7B liquidity; unsecured + preferred 87.5% of capital; tender of 2026s Stable/liability mgmt active
Credit qualityNon‑accruals 0.5% Non‑accruals 0.4% Non‑accruals 0.6% Still low, modest uptick

Management Commentary

  • “In the March quarter, our net investment income, or NII, was $83.5 million, $0.19 per common share. Our NAV was $3.2 billion, $7.25 per common share.”
  • “Our subordinated structured notes portfolio…represented 4.2% of our investment portfolio…We expect to continue to amortize and exit [it] and to reinvest primarily in first lien senior secured middle market loans.”
  • “The remaining real estate property portfolio includes 58 properties that paid us an income yield of 4.5% for the March quarter…We expect to continue to redeploy future asset sale proceeds primarily into…first lien middle market loans.”
  • “Our company has locked in a ladder of liabilities extending 27 years into the future…combined balance sheet cash and undrawn revolving credit facility commitments stood at $1.7 billion as of March.”
  • On NPRC/other income: “Exit‑related income…slowed a bit, as the Fed hiked, and in particular, 10‑year treasuries spiked…We think things are starting to normalize.”

Q&A Highlights

  • NPRC/other income trajectory: Management expects exit‑related income to normalize as market volatility subsides; remains focused on orderly, value‑maximizing NPRC reductions .
  • Dividend coverage strategy: Levers include shifting toward lower/middle‑market loans with wider spreads and higher SOFR floors, rotating from low‑GAAP CLO equity and lower‑yielding real estate, and judiciously increasing leverage from a conservative base (~30% debt/total cap) .
  • Funding mix: Company will continue to prioritize both unsecured debt and preferreds, noting programmatic access even through volatility and the value of diversified funding channels .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 FY25 EPS beat: $0.19 vs $0.14 consensus; revenue miss: $170.7M vs $174.3M consensus*. Near‑term estimate revisions may reflect lower “other income” and persistent NAV pressure, partially offset by higher first‑lien mix and yield‑lift from portfolio rotation .
  • Backdrop: EPS outperformed consensus in each of FY2025’s first three quarters, while revenue tracked modestly below single‑point consensus each quarter, consistent with de‑emphasizing non‑recurring “other income” streams*.
  • S&P Global estimates used for consensus/actual comparison for Primary EPS and Revenue.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core income resilient but trending lower as the portfolio intentionally rotates away from higher‑variability NPRC/CLO equity sources toward first‑lien loans; this supports EPS beats even as revenue normalizes and “other income” moderates .
  • NAV attrition is the central debate: sizable unrealized losses weighed on GAAP EPS and NAV; watch forward marks on control/non‑control positions as a stock narrative driver .
  • Credit remains sound: non‑accruals are low and yields robust; weighted average portfolio company EBITDA drifted down, but leverage is broadly stable vs prior quarters .
  • Funding/liquidity provide optionality: sizeable revolver capacity, long liability ladder, active liability management (convertible repayment; 2026 note tender) mitigate refinancing risk into 2026 .
  • Dividend maintained at $0.045/month through August; management outlined multiple levers (mix, floors, leverage) to support coverage into a lower‑SOFR backdrop .
  • Near‑term catalysts: additional NPRC asset sales and CLO equity amortization/redeployment to lift NII; monitoring of rate trajectory/floors and origination pace vs repayments will shape top‑line trends .
  • Risk watch‑list: further unrealized depreciation, slower exit markets dampening other income, and any uptick in non‑accruals against a softer macro tape .

Notes and sources

  • Q3 FY2025 8‑K (Item 2.02) press release and financial statements .
  • Q3 FY2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) .
  • Prior‑quarter press releases and transcripts for trend analysis: Q2 FY2025 (Dec‑24) ; Q1 FY2025 (Sep‑24) .
  • Capital actions press releases: tender launch (Apr 9, 2025) ; tender results (Apr 18, 2025) .
  • Scheduling/housekeeping: earnings release timing (May 6, 2025) .

Estimate data disclaimer

  • *Values retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ) via GetEstimates.