Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- Strong commercial execution leading to improved margins: Phillips 66 achieved strong market capture in Q4 due to improved feedstock costs, strong commercial results, and operational excellence.
- Resilience in the Chemicals business (CPChem) with high utilization rates: Despite a cyclical downturn, CPChem has demonstrated resilience by running at high rates, maintaining cash positivity, and being well-positioned for long-term growth.
- Positive outlook for refined product demand, especially jet fuel: The company expects global jet demand to grow about 6% in 2024, with continued recovery in international travel, which bodes well for their refining business.
- Weak refining margins in the Mid-Continent region, particularly in Chicago where the crack spread is now close to zero, due to poor demand from winter weather and strong refinery runs, which may negatively impact refining profitability.
- Increased costs and negative impacts due to the Rodeo Renewable Fuels project, including $100 million of decommissioning and start-up costs in Q1 2024 that will impact GAAP earnings, and detrimental effects on Q4 2023 results from shutting down crude units.
- Significant reduction in deferred tax benefits expected in 2024, dropping to about $200 million compared to higher benefits in 2023, which could negatively affect net income.
-
EBITDA Mid-Cycle Target
Q: What's needed to reach the $14B mid-cycle EBITDA target?
A: Kevin Mitchell explained that reaching the $14 billion 2025 mid-cycle EBITDA target involves several factors. The Chemicals business requires an incremental $1 billion, driven by overall market environment, plus $200 million from mid-cap projects. The Rodeo project will contribute about $700 million mid-cycle impact. Additional contributions come from cost reductions, $600 million in commercial contributions, and ongoing Refining projects. -
Rodeo Project Start-Up
Q: How will Rodeo ramp up to full operation?
A: Richard Harbison outlined that the Rodeo Renewable Diesel plant will shut down in February to tie in utilities. One hydrocracker will start up in March, quickly ramping to 50% capacity. The Pretreatment Unit will be completed in April, leading to commissioning in May and full rates by the end of the second quarter. Initially, they'll use easier feedstocks like used vegetable oils and introduce lower carbon intensity feedstocks as the Pretreatment Unit is optimized, expecting full rates and lower CI feedstocks by mid-year. -
Midstream Performance & Synergies
Q: How is the NGL Midstream business improving?
A: Mark Lashier and Tim Roberts highlighted that the integration of DCP has been a success, with $250 million of synergies captured and line of sight to $400 million-plus. Improved volumes, cost reductions, and strong operational and commercial execution led to sequential improvement in the NGL business in the fourth quarter. -
Strong Margin Capture Drivers
Q: What drove strong margin capture in Q4?
A: Kevin Mitchell explained that strong margin capture was due to the reversal of prior inventory hedge impacts, resulting in a $300 million swing quarter-over-quarter. Improved feedstock differentials, especially in the Central Corridor, and product pricing benefits in the Gulf Coast due to lag effects on barrels going up the Colonial Pipeline contributed to performance. Strong commercial results, capturing pipeline arbitrage, also played a significant role. The "Other" margin capture included approximately $200 million benefit from Colonial Pipeline pricing, about $3.90 per barrel, with the remainder from commercial performance and inventory effects. -
Balance Sheet and Leverage
Q: When will leverage return to target range?
A: Kevin Mitchell stated that, due to less working capital tailwind than expected, net debt-to-capital metrics were impacted by 2 to 3 percentage points. The company expects modest debt reduction in 2024, with $1.1 billion of maturities. Working capital swings can significantly affect the metric. While targeting the 25% to 30% range, capital allocation decisions will consider all priorities, not just the leverage metric. -
Turnaround Guidance
Q: Is $600M the new average annual turnaround spend?
A: Richard Harbison confirmed that the $500 million to $600 million range is considered an average annual turnaround cycle. The company aims to flatten heavy peak periods in turnaround cycles, concentrating maintenance in the first and fourth quarters and leveling out spend long-term. -
Asset Sales Update
Q: What's the progress on asset sales?
A: Mark Lashier indicated that active discussions are underway regarding asset sales, emphasizing that every asset has value and that decisions are based on capturing more value if others own certain assets. Further comments may be provided in the first-quarter earnings call. -
Chemical Segment Outlook
Q: What's driving recent PE price improvements?
A: Tim Roberts explained that polyethylene prices remained stable through the fourth quarter, with a $0.05 increase in January. Strong U.S. demand, destocking, and the U.S. feedstock advantage contributed to momentum. Europe remains soft, and Asia is also soft, but CPChem is running at high rates, demonstrating resilience during the down cycle.