PI
PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC. (PTON)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 FY2025 results landed at or above guidance on all key metrics: revenue $624.0M, total gross margin 51.0%, Adjusted EBITDA $89.4M, free cash flow $94.7M, and Ending Paid Connected Fitness (CF) subs 2.880M; operating expenses fell 23% YoY and net loss narrowed to $(47.7)M .
- Versus S&P Global consensus, Peloton slightly beat revenue and was essentially in line on EPS: Revenue $624.0M vs $621.3M consensus; Primary EPS approximately in line (company GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.12); S&P “Primary EPS” actual differs due to methodology) .
- FY25 guidance raised again: Total revenue midpoint +$7.5M to $2.455–$2.470B, Adjusted EBITDA +$15M midpoint to $330–$350M, Ending Paid CF subs midpoint +10k to 2.77–2.79M; free cash flow now “in the vicinity of $250M,” gross margin maintained at 50% .
- Key drivers: stronger subscription mix and improved hardware unit economics, cost discipline (S&M down 46% YoY), and lower churn; catalysts ahead include potential pricing actions, accelerated cost programs, and a FY26 strategy reveal, offset by tariff headwinds (~$5M Q4 FCF) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Delivered at/above guidance on revenue, gross margin, Adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, and Ending Paid CF subs; total gross margin expanded to 51.0% (+780 bps YoY) on mix and better CFP margins (14.3%) .
- Cash generation and deleveraging: Q3 free cash flow $94.7M; cash $914.3M; net debt down 35% YoY to $584.9M .
- Strategic/operational progress: improved LTV/CAC (“slightly above 2x”), AI-enabled translation and personalized plans (~500k plans started), and expanding third‑party/retail presence; CEO: “Q3 was my first quarter as Peloton CEO, and I'm pleased to share that we performed at the high end of or above guidance on our key metrics” .
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What Went Wrong
- Top-line pressure: total revenue down 13% YoY; Connected Fitness Products revenue -27% YoY on lower hardware sales across categories .
- App weakness: Paid App subs fell to 573k (-15% YoY; -2% QoQ) amid constrained media spend; App churn increased QoQ (8.1%) .
- Non-GAAP vs GAAP gap and one-timers: $33.0M impairment/restructuring (mostly non-cash) and ~$21.0M executive departure costs in G&A; net loss $(47.7)M despite strong Adjusted EBITDA .
Financial Results
Headline metrics (YoY and QoQ comparisons)
Segment breakdown and margins
Key KPIs
Actuals vs Q3 guidance (issued in Q2)
Notes: Company migrated subscription data model effective Jan 1, 2025; prior periods restated with immaterial impact .
Guidance Changes
Tariffs: minimal impact to FY25 gross margin; equipment subject to 25% tariff on aluminum content; incremental tariffs on certain China-sourced products .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategy framing: “Our approach begins with 4 objectives: improving member outcomes… meeting members everywhere… creating members for life… and operating with business excellence” .
- AI and personalization: “We launched [Personalized Plans] in Q3, and we're already up to nearly 0.5 million plans… the future is bright for Peloton members with AI” .
- Cost and growth balance: “We continue to track ahead of our $200 million cost restructuring plan… We see further opportunities to reduce our costs… [while] earning the right to grow” .
- CFO on efficiency: “Advertising and marketing spend decreased 46% year-over-year… These efforts drove an improvement in LTV to CAC of more than 30% YoY, achieving a ratio slightly above 2x” .
- Cash and leverage: “We ended the quarter with $914 million in unrestricted cash... net debt reduced $312 million or 35% year-over-year” .
Q&A Highlights
- Macro: Brief late-March/early-April softness but rebound thereafter; subscription business viewed as resilient vs macro; multiple lower-priced entry options and financing to support demand .
- Pricing: Continuing to evaluate equipment pricing (including tariff effects) and subscription pricing (no update; last increase nearly 3 years ago) .
- FY26 free cash flow: Expect “meaningful positive free cash flow” in FY26; note FY25 benefited from working capital tailwinds that may moderate .
- Balance sheet: Ample cash to address ~$200M converts due Feb 2026; priority remains deleveraging to lower cost of capital and expand optionality .
- Growth algorithm: CEO articulated growth math as ARPM × Members × Years per Member; initiatives targeting each lever (pricing/mix, distribution, retention) .
Estimates Context
- Q3 FY2025 vs S&P Global consensus:
- Revenue: Actual $624.0M vs consensus $621.3M* (slight beat) .
- EPS: Company GAAP diluted EPS $(0.12) ; S&P Global “Primary EPS” actual −0.0371 vs consensus −0.0350* (near inline).
- Note on definitions: Company reports Adjusted EBITDA $89.4M ; S&P Global “EBITDA” actual $21.7M vs consensus $80.4M* reflects a different (non‑company) methodology.
- Values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix-led profitability improvements are durable: subscription revenue at 67% of sales and 69% subscription GM underpin 51% total GM and strong Adjusted EBITDA; continued cost programs should support margins even if hardware remains soft .
- Balance sheet de-risking continues: robust cash generation and deleveraging (net debt down ~35% YoY) reduce financial risk and cost of capital; near-term converts manageable .
- 2H catalysts: FY25 guidance raised again; watch for potential pricing actions, AI-driven engagement/retention benefits, and a FY26 strategy update (new hardware/software and distribution scaling) .
- Monitor App trajectory: Paid App subs declining amid constrained media spend; product upgrades (Strength+, Personalized Plans) may need incremental marketing to reaccelerate .
- Tariff sensitivity: Minimal FY25 GM impact expected, but ~$5M Q4 FCF headwind and policy risk warrant monitoring .
- Leadership changes aimed at execution: New COO and CCO roles focus on supply chain and commercial expansion, aligning with “meet members everywhere” strategy .
Additional Context and Source Documents
- Q3 FY2025 8‑K and shareholder letter: full operating metrics, P&L, cash flow, non‑GAAP reconciliations –.
- Q3 FY2025 earnings call transcript: strategy, AI initiatives, pricing/macro views, FY26 FCF posture –.
- Prior quarters for trend: Q2 FY2025 8‑K (holiday quarter outperformance; raised FY25 guide) –; Q1 FY2025 8‑K (cost takeout; 51.8% GM; Adj. EBITDA $115.8M) –.
- Q3‑period press releases: leadership appointments (new COO, CCO) –; derivative settlement notice –; earnings date notice .