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    Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

    Q2 2024 Summary

    Published Jan 10, 2025, 5:10 PM UTC
    Initial Price$145.41December 29, 2023
    Final Price$169.30March 29, 2024
    Price Change$23.89
    % Change+16.43%
    • Qualcomm's automotive design win pipeline has increased from $30 billion in September '22 to approximately $45 billion, providing confidence in executing long-term revenue targets of more than $4 billion in automotive revenues in fiscal '26.
    • Revenue from Chinese OEMs grew by greater than 40% year-over-year in the first half of fiscal '24, driven by strong demand for premium and high-tier smartphones powered by Snapdragon platforms. This trend is holding up in the third quarter guidance.
    • Qualcomm's IoT revenues increased 9% sequentially, slightly better than expectations, and they expect continued sequential growth as they anticipate a gradual recovery from macro factors impacting the industry.
    1. China Revenue Growth
      Q: Is China revenue growth sustainable into the second half?
      A: Qualcomm's revenue from Chinese OEMs grew by over 40% year-over-year in the first half of fiscal '24, and this trend is reflected in the third quarter guidance. This growth is driven by an improved mix, with strong demand for premium and high-tier devices featuring on-device AI capabilities. Qualcomm expects this strength to continue into the second half, supported by new premium launches and the introduction of the Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 chip later this year.

    2. Huawei Revenue Impact
      Q: How will Huawei revenue affect future earnings?
      A: Qualcomm currently ships low-end 4G chips to Huawei, but as Huawei transitions all devices to 5G using their own chips, Qualcomm does not expect any revenue from Huawei's product business in fiscal '25. This will result in the loss of existing 4G revenue from Huawei.

    3. Automotive Revenue Growth
      Q: Is auto revenue growth sustainable?
      A: Qualcomm's automotive revenue is growing as its $45 billion design win pipeline materializes. Approximately one-third of this pipeline is driven by ADAS, reflecting success in advanced driver-assistance systems. The company is on track to achieve its target of over $4 billion in revenue in fiscal '26, with a reasonable growth trajectory expected between now and then.

    4. AI's Impact on Handset Content
      Q: Can AI drive higher content per phone?
      A: Yes, AI is driving increased silicon content in Qualcomm's chipsets, particularly with the Neural Processing Unit (NPU) being the largest area of silicon growth. Consumers desire more capable phones that can run AI applications, which drives demand for higher-tier devices and initiates an upgrade cycle, benefiting Qualcomm through improved mix and share gains.

    5. QCT Gross Margins
      Q: How are QCT gross margins trending?
      A: QCT gross margins have remained strong, driven by a favorable mix. However, Qualcomm is guiding for a sequential decline in gross margin due to the lack of flagship launches in the upcoming quarter. There is no fundamental change to the gross margin framework going forward.

    6. PC Business Outlook
      Q: When will PC revenues become material?
      A: While there is significant product momentum in the PC segment, with devices launching in the back half of the year, material revenue contributions are expected in fiscal '25. There is not material PC volume forecasted in the June quarter guidance.

    7. IoT Segment Recovery
      Q: How is the IoT business recovering?
      A: The IoT segment grew 9% sequentially from December to March, better than expectations. Qualcomm is guiding for low to mid-single-digit growth into the September quarter. The recovery is led by the consumer segment, aligned with phones, while industrial and networking recovery timelines are consistent with industry peers.

    8. QTL Revenue Outlook
      Q: Why hasn't QTL improved with China recovery?
      A: The QTL business is driven by the overall market size, with a cap on total handset ASPs for royalty calculations. The benefits seen in QCT from a higher premium mix do not directly translate to QTL revenue, as royalties are capped above certain price points.

    9. RF Front-End Sustainability
      Q: Are RF wins sustainable if modem share changes?
      A: Qualcomm's modem-RF architecture provides a sustainable advantage through integrated end-to-end solutions, offering performance and time-to-market benefits. This advantage is expected to persist regardless of changes in modem share.

    10. AI Applications in Handsets
      Q: What drives consumer upgrades to AI handsets?
      A: AI enables new use cases on devices, similar to the early days of smartphones. Developers are integrating AI models into applications, enhancing features like imaging and language processing. Qualcomm has optimized over 100 different models for on-device AI, which is creating consumer interest and driving upgrades to more capable devices.