Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
- QIAGEN expects instrument sales to improve sequentially in Q4 2024, particularly due to contributions from QIAstat and QIAcuity products. This indicates a positive trend despite overall cautious customer spending on instruments.
- QuantiFERON, QIAGEN's test for latent tuberculosis, continues to deliver strong double-digit growth, marking the sixth consecutive quarter with revenues above $100 million. The company anticipates sustainable growth, aiming for $600 million in revenues by 2028, driven by converting traditional skin tests to QuantiFERON, a successful partnership with DiaSorin, and expanding TB testing guidelines globally.
- QIAGEN anticipates continued margin improvement in 2025, supported by efficiency programs and the positive impact from discontinuing NeuMoDx, which is expected to enhance profitability as cost reductions materialize throughout the next year.
- The company expects instrument sales to remain negative overall, indicating ongoing challenges in instrument sales growth.
- The sample prep segment showed minimal growth of only 1% over the last two quarters, suggesting possible difficulties in driving growth in a core business area.
- Uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. tariff and tax policy changes could adversely affect QIAGEN's profitability, especially given that 50% of its revenues come from the U.S.
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Capital Deployment Strategy
Q: Is larger M&A still likely, or more bias towards buybacks?
A: Management stated they are extremely active on both fronts. They remain open to significant, accretive M&A opportunities to reinforce the portfolio, while also committed to returning $1 billion to shareholders by 2028 through buybacks, absent significant M&A. They signaled that another buyback could come quite quickly in 2025. -
Operating Margin Outlook
Q: Could the 2028 margin target be raised given above-expectation progress?
A: Management acknowledged significant progress in margin improvement and expects continued growth in 2025. They may need to revisit the >31% operating margin target by 2028 in a positive way, but it's currently too early to make changes. -
Share Buyback Acceleration
Q: Why not get more aggressive with buybacks at current valuation?
A: Management emphasized their consistent share buyback policy since 2012, noting they have opportunities to step it up over time. They currently have $300 million approved for buybacks and see potential to increase it, aiming for what's best for shareholders at a given time. -
QuantiFERON Growth Drivers
Q: Can you discuss QuantiFERON's growth drivers and sustainability?
A: QuantiFERON achieved another double-digit growth quarter, with main drivers being conversion of the skin test market (still over 50% of the market), the successful partnership with DiaSorin, and inclusion in more country guidelines for latent TB testing. Management forecasts revenues of $600 million for QuantiFERON by 2028, projecting a 6-7% CAGR in the coming years. -
2025 Revenue and Margin Outlook
Q: Any reason revenue won't hit high end of mid-single digits in 2025?
A: Management believes the growth momentum, with H2 showing 4-5% growth, positions them well for 2025. They expect decent growth, aiming to achieve a 7% CAGR from '24 to '28. Margin improvement is expected to continue, with benefits from discontinuing NeuMoDx contributing more significantly in 2025. -
Portfolio Mix as QuantiFERON Normalizes
Q: How will you drive growth as QuantiFERON normalizes?
A: Management is confident in their portfolio mix, focusing on growth opportunities like Sample Tech, digital PCR, QIAstat, and QIAGEN Digital Insights. They plan to reinforce leadership in areas like Sample Tech and QuantiFERON, and take market share in digital PCR and syndromic testing. They've set precise revenue targets for 2028, including $250 million for digital PCR and $200 million each for QIAstat and QIAGEN Digital Insights, supporting a 7% CAGR from '24 to '28. -
Sample Prep Business Outlook
Q: Confidence in reaccelerating sample prep growth?
A: Management is optimistic, citing investments in automation and upcoming instrument launches. They plan to upgrade existing systems like QIASymphony to QIASymphony Connect, and introduce new high-throughput and benchtop systems by 2025-2026. This supports their expectation of around 3% CAGR in Sample Tech over the coming years, outperforming market growth and strengthening market leadership. -
Impact of NeuMoDx Wind-down
Q: Size of NeuMoDx's impact on 2025 revenues?
A: Management indicated there will still be some NeuMoDx revenues in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, but none expected in the second half of 2025, as the sites will be shut down by the end of Q2. -
QIAstat Placements and Competition
Q: Details on QIAstat placements and competition?
A: Q3 saw over 150 QIAstat placements, exceeding competitors. Drivers include having competitive menus in the U.S. market with approvals for respiratory, GI, and meningitis panels. They expect to be more competitive entering 2025 and aim to achieve $200 million in revenues by 2028. -
Liquid Biopsy Contribution
Q: How will liquid biopsy drive consumables growth?
A: Management views QIAGEN as a pioneer and top enabler in liquid biopsy, mastering technologies like ccfDNA, CTCs, and exosomes. Their solutions are used by major players like Guardant Health and Natera, primarily in oncology applications. They aim to strengthen this position, focusing on high-value consumables, but did not quantify the growth contribution. -
QuantiFERON Secondary Distribution Partner
Q: Thoughts on signing a secondary distribution partner?
A: Management remains open to options, highlighting the successful partnership with DiaSorin. By contract, they can add one new partner per region. Criteria include the partner's installed base and commitment to invest in market creation and demand generation. They are in a strong position with options to consider. -
Tariffs and Policy Impact
Q: Any exposure to tariffs or policy impacts?
A: Management noted it's premature to comment extensively but emphasized their balanced global presence. They acknowledge the U.S. remains a key market, and they will monitor and adjust to any policy changes. Potential corporate tax implications were mentioned, but details are needed before assessing impact.
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