QuinStreet - Q2 2023
February 8, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Thank you for joining QuinStreet's second quarter fiscal 2023 earnings call. Today's call will be recorded. Today, we're joined by QuinStreet CEO, Doug Valenti, and QuinStreet CFO, Greg Wong. Following the prepared remarks, there will be a Q&A session. , I'll pass it over to Laine Yonker.
Laine Yonker (Investor Relations Representative)
Thank you, everyone, for joining us as we report QuinStreet's second quarter fiscal 2023 financial results. Joining me on the call today are CEO Doug Valenti and CFO Greg Wong. Before I begin, I would like to remind you that the following discussion will contain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected by such statements and are not guarantees of future performance. Factors that may cause results to differ from our forward-looking statements are discussed in our recent SEC filings, including our most recent 8-K filing made today, and our upcoming 10-Q. Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update these statements. Today, we will be discussing both GAAP and non-GAAP measures.
A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is included in today's earnings press release, which is available on our investor relations website at investor.quinstreet.com. With that, I will turn the call over to Doug Valenti. Please go ahead, sir.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Thank you, Laine. Welcome, everyone. First, the headline. The anticipated sharp re-ramp of auto insurance client marketing spending has begun, and it looks like it's up into the right from here. Our auto insurance revenue is expected to jump by over 60% this quarter, the March quarter, versus the December quarter. We are seeing the significant positive inflection we anticipated. Excitingly, though, even with the January surge and its immediate positive impact on our results, we are still early in the full recovery and re-ramp of auto insurance. We expect much more to come. We've been predicting this significant positive inflection in auto insurance, our biggest client vertical, for some time, and we have been preparing for it.
We believe that we are at the beginning of a ramp that over the coming quarters will lead back to auto insurance client spending levels seen prior to the inflation challenges of the past couple of years. To further strong growth from there as the share of marketing budgets and consumer shopping represented by digital media continues its relentless march up into the right. The return of auto insurance marketing spending is due mainly to carrier progress, adjusting their products and increasing their rates to offset higher costs, and to the resetting of carrier combined ratio targets as of January 1. Consumer shopping traffic online for auto insurance is also up, as expected, spurred largely by the rate increases. QuinStreet revenue and margins are increasing rapidly as growth in insurance combines with already strong momentum in our other two nine-figure annual revenue client verticals.
Those, of course, being home services and credit-driven financial services. As a result, we expect record total company revenue in the current March quarter and a significant jump in adjusted EBITDA. We expect record revenue again and a further jump in adjusted EBITDA in the June quarter. Looking back at the December quarter, which was our fiscal Q2. Results were good, especially given conditions in auto insurance and the shifting macroeconomic environment in the quarter. Our business model once again demonstrated its resilience, and we once again demonstrated our ability to successfully and profitably navigate even the most complicated environment. We grew revenue year over year in Q2 and generated positive EBITDA in what is our softest seasonal quarter,despite facing both the bottom of the auto insurance market and the shifting macroeconomic environment.
December quarter results also included continued investment spending on exciting long-term growth initiatives and capabilities as promised. As our positive results demonstrate, we are making those investments with the efficiency and margin and cost discipline you have come to expect from QuinStreet. Our commitment to continue our disciplined investment in long-term initiatives through the transitory challenges in the insurance market is paying off. Revenue and margins are rebounding quickly. We expect them to continue to ramp in coming quarters, and that our long-term prospects have never been better.
I wanted to make some brief comments about the macroeconomic environment, which we continue to assess and that we believe is reflected in our outlook. Most importantly, we expect the re-ramp of auto insurance client spending to be the dominant driver of our performance trends in fiscal Q3, or the March quarter, and likely in quarters to come as carrier spending continues to re-ramp. Related, in addition, consumer shopping for auto insurance typically increases during periods of economic uncertainty. We would expect that to be another net positive for our insurance results, especially given rate increases. As for our non-insurance client verticals, the majority of our business there is leveraged to homeowners and to prime and near-prime consumers. As you have heard from the banks and credit card companies, the balance sheets, credit, and spending levels of those consumers continue to be in good shape.
Turning to our outlook, we expect total revenue in fiscal Q3 to be between $160 million and $170 million, a company record. We expect adjusted EBITDA in fiscal Q3 to be between $7 million and $8 million, reflecting the immediate, significant, but still early impact of top-line leverage from re-ramping insurance revenue. For the full fiscal year 2023 ending in June, we expect revenue to be between $610 million and $630 million. We expect full fiscal year adjusted EBITDA to be between $25 million and $30 million. Our financial position remains excellent. We have a strong balance sheet with almost $80 million of cash and no bank debt. We are entering a period that we believe will be represented by ramping revenues, expanding margins, and strong cash flows.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Greg.
Greg Wong (CFO and SVP)
Thank you, Doug. Hello. Thank you to everyone for joining us today. The December quarter demonstrated the strength and resilience of our business model and client vertical footprint. We delivered solid year-over-year revenue growth of 7% to $134 million, despite challenges in auto insurance as well as a shifting macroeconomic environment. Our non-insurance client verticals represented 64% of total Q2 revenue and grew 31% year-over-year. Looking at revenue by client vertical, our financial services client vertical represented 67% of Q2 revenue and totaled $89.3 million, approximately flat year over year. This was a result of the continued strength in our credit-driven and banking client verticals, which largely offset expected challenges in insurance for the quarter.
Within insurance, carriers continued to limit their marketing spend in the December quarter to manage calendar year 2022 combined ratio targets. That said, as anticipated, we have now seen the significant positive inflection in revenue beginning in January. As carrier combined ratios reset, carriers begin to benefit from rate increases, and consumer shopping intensifies in response to higher rates. Most importantly, we expect insurance revenue to continue to ramp up into the right over the coming quarters as we believe we're in the early stages of the full recovery of that market. Our credit-driven client verticals of personal loans and credit cards, as well as our banking business, delivered excellent results in Q2, growing a combined 35% year-over-year. Revenue on our home services client vertical grew 27% year-over-year to $43 million or 32% of total revenue.
As we've discussed in the past, home services may be our largest addressable market, and our strategy to drive long-term growth here is simple. 1, grow our business from existing service offerings like window replacements, solar system sales and installation, and bathroom remodeling. None of which we believe are anywhere close to their full potential. Two expand into new service offerings where we see the opportunity to at least triple the number of these subverticals we currently serve. This multi-pronged growth strategy is expected to drive double digit organic growth for the foreseeable future. Other revenue was the remaining $1.8 million of Q2 revenue. Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal Q2 was $1 million. Turning to the balance sheet, we closed the quarter with $79.1 million of cash and equivalents and no bank debt.
In closing, we are excited about our business and financial model as we head into the back half of our fiscal year. The significant positive inflection we are seeing in insurance, combined with the continued strength of non-insurance client verticals
Is expected to drive strong total company revenue growth and rapid expansion of both adjusted EBITDA and cash flow in the March quarter. We also expect revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA and cash flow to strengthen again in the June quarter. With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.
Operator (participant)
Our first question comes from Jason Kreyer with Craig-Hallum. Please state your question.
Jason Kreyer (Senior Research Analyst)
Thank you, gentlemen. Just wondering if you could help us bridge the profitability gap,because I certainly appreciate the record revenue that you're forecasting over the next couple of quarters, but if we go back a couple of years, like the back half of 2021, the last time you were at revenues at these levels, we were seeing EBITDA margins in kind of the double-digit range. I'm just wondering what's different about it this time, or do you expect that to maybe occur a a couple of quarters from now?
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Yeah, it's a great question, Jason, and thank you for it. I would say the short answer is we expect it to come pretty soon. The longer answer is, we are spending on growth initiatives across the company, and including insurance. We're doing that because we see big, attractive growth opportunities with great incremental variable margins and because we have the capacity and the surplus to do it. We are getting great results from it. We are nowhere near back to where we expect to get with insurance over the next few quarters. It is still very early in the revamp there. We're not getting the kind of top-line leverage from insurance or the full top-line leverage you would expect, 'cause we're about $20 million a quarter.
Even in the March quarter, we'll still be about $20 million quarter short of the pre-downturn peak in insurance. We're also not getting the full media margin or variable margin leverage we would be getting because all the carriers aren't back, which means we have fewer matches for consumers, which means our media efficiency and yield are down, which means we don't have that first level margin. Now all that being said, we are going to go from about break even in the December quarter to about a 5% adjusted EBITDA margin in the March quarter. You can see that it's coming back very rapidly, and all indications are we're going to keep gaining the top-line leverage and that media efficiency, and therefore you should just continue to see...
I know we've already told you we expect to see continued expansion of adjusted EBITDA margin in the June quarter and certainly beyond. That's what's going on. I think we're spending that money, the spending on growth, I think is being done in very effectively and obviously disciplined way. Effectively, well, hey, we grew non-insurance verticals 31% at great scale in the December quarter year-over-year. We are seeing a big, fast re-ramp and bounce back as the insurers come back, both in our top line to record levels and in adjusted EBITDA, as I said, from kind of break even to 5%.
I think we're really well-positioned for the next cycle and positioned to take advantage of continuing to scale all of our businesses, including insurance as it comes back. You'll see, you won't see any degradation of variable margins. The variable margins we're driving in non-insurance are very attractive, certainly consistent with and in many cases above our historic levels. That's happening. It's just that insurance, again, top line's not fully back yet, nor is the media efficiency 'cause not all the carriers are back fully yet, although we have some that just started coming back again this month. Obviously we had a number of them coming back in January, and then we have even more on their way. The outlook is very, very positive.
I would also argue that, as we've looked at, we've been talking for the last couple quarters about continuing to spend on these growth initiatives. I would argue, suspending modesty momentarily, that we've done that pretty optimally. In December, we spent very aggressively on everything that we think made sense to spend on for the future in the non-insurance and insurance verticals, and we still made $1 million EBITDA. We're spending to the capacity we think makes sense because we have great big long-term opportunities, and we're delivering against those opportunities. We see more opportunities to keep doing that and to keep growing at big scale and to keep driving big margins at big scale.
I'd say right where we are, we'd love for insurance to come back faster. It's gonna keep coming back. It does look very sustainable, and all our, all indications from the carriers are it's gonna continue to come and continue to scale and be sustainable 'cause their rates are really reflective of the current environment and are delivering great results for them. super happy with where we are and, it's what's happening is what we said was gonna happen.
Jason Kreyer (Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. Thank you for all that. Sorry, apologies in advance. I've got like a three-part question on auto insurance. I know January was a tougher comp for you, and then the comps eased in February. Just first of all, just wondering if you can give a little bit more clarity on the cadence of what you've seen so far in early 2023. Then second question, just if there's any details you can provide on how traffic is ramping up, like if there's any numbers behind that. Then the third question, as you see these rate increases, I'm just curious if that means you're making more money on all the opportunities that you're delivering to the carriers.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Yeah. Gotcha. The cadence in early 2023 is kind of what we indicated, quick snapback from a few of the bigger client carriers that are furthest along in terms of their rate and product adjustments, and pretty immediate. That's why, 60% auto insurance jump from the December quarter to the March quarter. We have other carriers, another big carrier, I think just yesterday, or maybe today, coming back into the channel in a pretty significant way. We're talking to the carriers, and they're all at different stages of coming back in. Some are back in very strongly, some are not yet, but planning it. We haven't heard anybody say, "Hey, I'm just not gonna be big in 2023." That's just not something we're hearing.
That's kind of the cadence. Again, we're Even with all that, we're $20 million shy of the pre-downturn peak in auto insurance revenue per quarter. It gives you a sense and a feel for how much more top-line leverage is to come. Also, as more carriers come back, not unimportantly, we have more places to match consumers, which means we have better media efficiency, better media margins, better overall margins. You have a, the double effect on overall margins as that happens. It's coming. It's ramping. The ramp is It is hard to say at this point whether the ramp is accelerating or not, it's a steep ramp as I again, 60% quarter-over-quarter is a steep ramp to begin with.
We expect, as we said, continued ramping. That's the indication we're getting from everybody. That's the indication we're getting from the industry in terms of the rates. That's the indication we're getting from inflation as we look at what's happening with used car pricing and supply chains and another factor. Everything is lining up for this to be, particularly with the rate increases, of course, a good year, the beginning of a big cycle for insurers. In terms of the details on the traffic, I don't have the details in terms of how much it's up, but it ramped up very quickly in January from December, double-digit % plus.
We've seen it came up and it ramped in January, and it's kind of plateaued, but it plateaued at a significantly higher level than it was in the last part of last calendar year. Also, industry folks are reporting increases in shopping behavior. J.D. Power came out with a report, I think 1.5, 2 weeks ago, that said that the % of consumers shopping for insurance is the highest since they started tracking it. Again, nothing, none of that, nothing about that is surprising, right? We know that everybody got their rates increased on them over the past year or so, just about everybody. Those rate increases were not small, I mean 10%, sometimes 15, 20%.
If you're a consumer, even if the economy's good, you're probably gonna go and see if you can save money somewhere else. If you go to shop, you're, a big percentage of those of you are going to wind up on QuinStreet Insurance marketplaces. Good solid ramp and participation by consumers and not, again, not unexpected, and that should be a continued positive driver of revenue in insurance for us. The rate increases don't reflect themselves directly in our pricing. They certainly give the clients more surplus on with which they can spend on marketing and higher lifetime value than they would have without the rate increases, which means they, the levels that they can spend or the pricing they can spend can be higher.
There's not a super direct connection, but there's a very strong connection between the rate increases and what the carriers are doing. What we've generally seen with the carriers that have gotten their rates increased to the levels that they think are working is good, strong demand and good, strong pricing for the segments of consumers across the board. What's, it's what you would hope and expect, is the rates now are reflective of a healthy economic model, and they're able to spend like they would in a normal positive cycle on that, on attracting those segments and on underwriting them. That's probably the best I can do on that one.
Jason Kreyer (Senior Research Analyst)
That's perfect. Thank you, Doug. I appreciate it.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Thank you, Jason.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from John Campbell with Stephens. Please state your question.
John Campbell (VP of Investor Relations)
Hey, guys. Good afternoon, and Happy New Year.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Hey, John.
John Campbell (VP of Investor Relations)
Hey. Doug, back to the guidance. I mean, really good revenue outlook, obviously. The midpoint on the EBITDA looks like 90 basis points of kind of compression year-over-year. You just touched on this, but I wanna make sure I get a good grip on it. It sounds like it's not a mix shift issue. It's basically you guys staffed up a good bit to basically handle a higher level of insurance than what you're seeing today and maybe what you're expecting to see in the quarter or 2 ahead. As the top line continues to kind of lift from here, we should, I guess, are we expected to see, better than average incremental margins maybe as you move into the next fiscal year? Is that the way to think about it?
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
It is. It absolutely is. We have very good incremental margins right now across the board, except in insurance, where the incremental margins are fine and accretive, but not yet where they will be as we get more top line out of that vertical and more media efficiency out of that vertical with the participation of more and more carriers. That's kind of the gist of it. A very, really pretty mathematically simple and not complicated. That's exactly what's going on. We said this all last year. We said, listen, we... I think we said it the year before.
We were not gonna stop investing in long-term growth and big initiatives, during the insurance downturn because we knew it was transitory, and we wanted to be ready for the other side. This is the other side. As I said, I think we kind of, from our perspective, given the size and the attractiveness of the opportunities we have in front of us, we feel like it was pretty optimally done. Again, we did it even in December, which was a very soft quarter from every angle, with a lot going on seasonally from, insurance went down. They got down again because of the late season winter storm.
We had started to see some impacts on along the edges on low-income consumers, and we still drove $1 million of adjusted EBITDA. And you said this last call, we know how to make money. Despite all that, despite spending very aggressively, but in a QuinStreet kind of disciplined way on big opportunities, we still made money. We're gonnamake money and we expect to just make more and more money in coming quarters as we continue to get more back in insurance.
John Campbell (VP of Investor Relations)
Okay. Makes a lot of sense. Thanks, Doug. Then also on the, the consumer credit-driven verticals, there's a lot of fear out there around kind of deteriorating consumer balance sheets. That's not necessarily bad for some of those businesses. I guess maybe personal loans, if you can go a little bit deeper down the spectrum. I'm looking for a little bit of commentary or just some color around how that progressed through the quarter, maybe start of the quarter and maybe even up until January, kind of what you guys are seeing in that channel, what the consumer appetite looks like versus, the sources of credit.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Sure. Let's start with credit cards, which is a big business for us and good business for us. We're seeing very strong consumer demand on, particularly for travel-related cards, which is what we have the most leverage to. It's the biggest part of our mix. Particularly in travel-related cards with prime and near-prime consumers, which is the dominant consumer base that we serve in our credit cards business. As far as the issuers go and their credit standards, we have seen almost no tightening. Strong demand, enthusiasm, very successful limited time offers. Any adjustments that we've seen have been very, very incremental on the edges and probably represent less than 5% impact on the, the aperture of the of their marketing appetite.
It is essentially full steam ahead with the big banks and the credit card issuers right, and we serve all the big credit card issuers. We're keeping a close eye on it. They're keeping a close eye on it, but their balance sheets are in great shape. The consumers are not even yet back to pre-pandemic, card balances or delinquency rates. The consumer is in very good shape there. Where we are seeing in some deterioration of credit, and is fully incorporated into our, into our outlook, and offset, as you said, by other things we do in the same business, is in personal loans.
Little bit of tightening, a little bit more tightening than in credit cards as the lower income consumer is under more pressure, understandably from inflation than those prime and near-prime consumers. So we have seen some effect there. Not huge, but some. It's partly, I almost said largely. Largely might be the better adverb, but let's say for now, partly offset by the fact that, as in our personal loans business, we also match to credit repair, credit counseling and debt settlement clients. Oftentimes, there are two things that can feed our personal loans business about credit. One is as consumers run up more on their credit card balances, we see stronger demand for credit card debt consolidation and personal loans, and that is beginning to happen.
We also see more consumers get into a little bit of trouble with their credit, particularly at the lower income levels, and they end up needing assistance or other types of assistance like credit repair, credit counseling, debt settlement, and we have a big business, and big clients, big high quality clients, that serve those consumers. Net-net, the credit side of the business is in really good shape.
John Campbell (VP of Investor Relations)
Okay. Very helpful. Thank you, Doug.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Thanks, John.
Laine Yonker (Investor Relations Representative)
Our next question comes from Max Michaelis with Lake Street Capital Markets. Please state your question.
Max Michaelis (Senior Research Analyst)
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanna touch on the guide for next quarter. You had a nice quarter out-of-home services. I think it grew 27%. Maybe not growing that fast next quarter, but let's think mid-teens, low 20%. Do you think Q3 grows at similar rates? Just trying to get a gauge on how much growth we could see out of the auto insurance and gen services segment. Thanks.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Thanks, Max. Greg, I'm not sure. I mean, I think year-over-year growth implied in the guide is what, Greg, for the March quarter?
Greg Wong (CFO and SVP)
Yeah, at the midpoint, in the March quarter, it's 10% year-over-year growth.
Max Michaelis (Senior Research Analyst)
Yeah, yeah.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
And so-
Max Michaelis (Senior Research Analyst)
I guess I'm trying to gauge whether or not we should see similar type growth out of the home services segment 'cause I'm trying to gauge how much financial services would grow year-over-year. I guess that's what I'm trying to ask.
Greg Wong (CFO and SVP)
We don't guide specifically by vertical, so those are numbers that, not numbers that we put out there. That said, I expect home services to continue, like I said in my prepared remarks, to throw off double-digit organic growth rates. Depending on the quarter, it can vary, anywhere from 15 to what you just saw, 27. I expect that business to continue to perform well and throw off double-digit growth.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Yeah, it's gonna be in the same range as it has been. In the 20%-ish range is not a bad assumption. You might be off ± a couple points, but that business is a pretty solid 20% year-over-year grow or quarter-to-quarter and has been for a long, and we expect will be into the future. Had a particularly strong quarter last quarter, of course, and we'll have those as well. It's, that's not a bad range to consider it being in, Max, if that's helpful.
Max Michaelis (Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, thanks. The last one for me. Were you guys active in the buyback this quarter?
Greg Wong (CFO and SVP)
We were not this past quarter.
Max Michaelis (Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Thanks, Max.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Jim Goss with Barrington Research. Please state your question.
Jim Goss (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
All right. Thank you. A couple of questions. The first one of the trends recently has been auto sales have been at low levels for both new and used cars over the past couple of years, and the mix has varied. I'm wondering if that mix element does have any impact on the demand for your insurance or the pricing of the policies. I imagine it would, but wondering what you thought.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Not meaningful demand. It doesn't change the market in a meaningful way. We've not heard that from carriers, and we haven't seen it in their budget allocations. Most insurance, as is really bought for existing ownership. Not that there aren't, policies sold for new ownership, but most of it is for existing ownership. The softening is really on incremental in those markets. A, it's not a big part of the overall mix annually, and B, it's, relatively, while it's meaningful, it's relatively incremental on what's happening with new. When I say new, I mean new, whether they be brand new or used.
It's just not a meaningful impact, and we have not seen that, and we have not heard that from our carrier partners.
Jim Goss (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. Doug, also, I wondered if the soft period recently has given you an opportunity to maybe gain some share of budgets in some of the key carriers. I know Progressive has always been a key one that you've had your eye on getting a bigger share at certain of the other ones. Has that been an issue for you?
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
It's part of why we've been spending so aggressively. We wanted to put ourselves in position to, as the market came back, have gained and be and to be able to benefit from as much share as possible.
Jim Goss (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
We do believe we have gained share from the clients in both the media side and the budget side.
Jim Goss (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. one last one. I was wondering about a comment that was made earlier about tripling potentially the subvertical served in the consumer products area, consumer services. I'm wondering how you would pace such growth in terms of the cost positioning that would be required to enter new markets relative to embedding yourself further in existing markets.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Yeah. It's in the home services trades that Greg was talking about. A trade would be like kitchen remodel would be a trade. We're in about a dozen verticals there now, trades there now. We think we can be in, a lot more, we do think we could triple the number we're in. We pace that really based on how fast those we're able to do that within a reasonable contribution margin range. We invest a lot in home services because there is such a big opportunity, but it's more limited by our execution capacity than it is our financial capacity. We haven't found that it's been a drag. In fact, home services is one of our highest contributing businesses.
When I say contribution, I mean, you got, several layers of margin, right? The first layer of margin is your media efficiency. Second layer of margin is you then take the people in that business out, and after media costs and after people cost, you have contribution margin. We are, we're pushing home services kind of as fast as we can execute, and to grow those markets, and it's still one of our highest contributing businesses, so, in terms of % and dollars. It's not limited financially in what we're doing in home services.
Jim Goss (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
All right. Thanks very much. Appreciate it.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Thank you, Jim.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Chris Sakai with Singular Research. Please state your question.
Chris Sakai (Director of Research and a Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, Doug and Greg.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Hey, Chris.
Chris Sakai (Director of Research and a Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Sounds like a great quarter. Just wanted to ask about insurance. I know you've talked about Q three and Q four. Just wanna get your feeling and color on how it would continue into Q one of next year.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
Yeah, it's a good question. We would expect it to continue to ramp. We think we're in a multi-quarter ramp as these carriers are getting their legs back under them, economically with the rate increases. As they get the products, and states aligned with those rate increases to get their portfolios where they want them, they got a lot to come back from, as they had had to really close down a lot of their efforts in marketing and expansion, over the past couple of years with the issues they had with combined ratios. Every indication is a continued ramp. I think I said a few quarters ago that I thought we might be entering a super cycle.
I think we are likely to have a good long multi-year cycle in insurance because the rate increases have been very healthy. They've been very smart. The carriers are just gonna keep taking that out of those economics and reflecting them in their, in their market activities, in their, in their market presence. We expect a good long trend up into the right for insurance. it's again driven quite simply by the fact that they now have rates that are more reflective of the new cost environment, both on the catastrophe side as well as on the repair side.
Chris Sakai (Director of Research and a Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, thanks. Then can you help me understand more about the increase in product development expense? Is this gonna occur basically as long as insurance continues to ramp? Can you help me understand that?
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
I think we won't keep increasing it. I think we're kinda at the level we're going to be at for a while. Now what's gonna happen is it won't grow like it's been growing or like it grew this past couple of years, but revenue will. That's how you get the margin expansion, right? You get more revenue driving more incremental variable margin on top of a semi-fixed, relatively fixed product development and other cost base, which is why you're gonna see that margin line continue to expand and why you're seeing the jump like it did, like we expect it to in the March quarter from, again, break even to 5% already, and it's just even down in the March quarter.
More than that in the June quarter, as you run your numbers, you'll see our assumptions there are that they're gonna expand another point or 2 in June.
Chris Sakai (Director of Research and a Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Okay, thanks for the answers.
Doug Valenti (Founder, Chairman, and CEO)
You're welcome, Chris.
Laine Yonker (Investor Relations Representative)
Thank you, everyone, for taking the time to join QuinStreet's earnings call.