Executive Summary

Roblox delivered a clean beat versus its own Q4 guidance on every guided line: revenue $988.2M (+32% y/y), bookings $1.362B (+21% y/y), Adjusted EBITDA $65.6M, CFO $184.5M, and FCF $120.6M, with management citing strength in mobile/desktop and a strong December/January momentum despite lapping 2023 console launches and FX headwinds .
FY24 also exceeded updated guidance, with revenue $3.602B (+29% y/y), bookings $4.369B (+24%), and FCF $641.3M (+417% y/y), while margins improved >620 bps y/y, evidencing operating leverage .
2025 outlook guides revenue to $4.245B–$4.345B and bookings to $5.20B–$5.30B, with Adjusted EBITDA $190M–$265M and FCF $800M–$860M; Q1’25 bookings growth expected to outpace 2H growth given tough Q3’24 compares .
Potential stock catalysts: consistent guidance beats, visible bookings acceleration exiting December and into January, product/AI roadmap (3D foundational model, paid access, AI creation) and monetization/ads initiatives; offset by continued GAAP losses and lapping of console comps .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Broad-based beats vs guidance: Q4 revenue, bookings, Adj. EBITDA, CFO and FCF all at/above the top end of ranges; FY24 also above ranges .
- User and engagement metrics remained strong: Q4 DAUs 85.3M (+19% y/y), hours 18.7B (+21% y/y), average monthly unique payers 18.9M (+19% y/y), with ABPDAU $15.97 and ABPMUP $23.97 .
- Operating leverage: FY24 margins improved by over 620 bps; Q4 personnel costs ex-SBC flat y/y and infra/trust & safety costs up only ~2% y/y despite scale (13% of revenue/9% of bookings) .
- Quote: “We delivered Q4 2024 results at or above the guidance… revenue and bookings grew by 29% and 24%… margins improved by over 620 bps; and cash flow from operations grew by 79%” – CFO Michael Guthrie .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP losses persist: Q4 consolidated net loss $(221.1)M; FY24 consolidated net loss $(940.6)M, despite improving cash generation .
- Sequential DAU step-down vs Q3 tied to lapping PlayStation launch and Xbox updates from Oct’23; Eastern Europe weaker (notably Turkey) weighed on DAU growth mix .
- FX headwinds and tough console comps tempered headline growth rates; management highlighted stronger growth in mobile/desktop (+26% in Q4; +27% in December), while prepaid/console growth normalized to ~22% by December .

Financial Results

Headline P&L, Cash Flow and Bookings (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$893.5	$919.0	$988.2
Revenue YoY Growth	+31%	+29%	+32%
Bookings ($USD Millions)	$955.2	$1,128.5	$1,361.6
Bookings YoY Growth	+22%	+34%	+21%
Consolidated Net Loss ($USD Millions)	$(207.2)	$(240.4)	$(221.1)
Net Loss per Share (Basic & Diluted)	$(0.32)	$(0.37)	$(0.33)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$66.5	$55.0	$65.6
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)	$151.4	$247.4	$184.5
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	$111.6	$218.0	$120.6

Margins (calculated from company-reported figures; negative indicates loss)

Margin	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Operating Margin (Loss from operations / Revenue)	-26.6% (=(237.9/893.5))	-30.4% (=(278.9/918.9))	-24.7% (=(244.1/988.2))
Net Loss Margin (Consolidated net loss / Revenue)	-23.2% (=(207.2/893.5))	-26.2% (=(240.4/918.9))	-22.4% (=(221.1/988.2))

Note: Margins are calculated by the analyst using company-reported revenue, loss from operations, and consolidated net loss; see cited sources for underlying values.

KPIs and Engagement (oldest → newest)

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
DAUs (Millions)	79.5	88.9	85.3
Hours Engaged (Billions)	17.4	20.7	18.7
Avg Monthly Unique Payers (Millions)	16.5	19.1	18.9
Avg Bookings per Monthly Unique Payer (ABPMUP, $)	$19.34	$19.70	$23.97
Avg Bookings per DAU (ABPDAU, $)	$12.01	$12.70	$15.97

Non‑GAAP adjustments and accounting effects

Adjusted EBITDA excludes changes in deferrals (Q4: +$381.8M deferred revenue, -$65.2M deferred cost; total +$316.5M) and non-cash items (e.g., SBC) .
Change in estimated average lifetime of a paying user from 28 to 27 months increased Q4 revenue by $12.7M and Q4 cost of revenue by $2.6M; FY24 impact +$98.0M revenue and +$20.4M cost of revenue .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current/Actual	Change
Revenue	Q4 2024	$935–$960M	$988.2M (actual)	Beat high end
Bookings	Q4 2024	$1,336–$1,361M	$1,361.6M (actual)	At/above high end
Consolidated Net Loss	Q4 2024	$(303)–$(283)M	$(221.1)M (actual)	Better than guided loss
Adjusted EBITDA	Q4 2024	$10–$30M	$65.6M (actual)	Beat
Cash from Operations	Q4 2024	$170–$185M	$184.5M (actual)	At high end
Free Cash Flow	Q4 2024	$100–$115M	$120.6M (actual)	Beat
Revenue	FY 2024	$3,549–$3,574M	$3,602.0M (actual)	Beat high end
Bookings	FY 2024	$4,343–$4,368M	$4,369.1M (actual)	Beat high end
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2024	$125–$145M	$180.2M (actual)	Beat
CFO	FY 2024	$808–$823M	$822.3M (actual)	At high end
FCF	FY 2024	$621–$636M	$641.3M (actual)	Beat
Revenue	Q1 2025	N/A (first issuance)	$990–$1,015M	New
Bookings	Q1 2025	N/A	$1,125–$1,150M	New
Adj. EBITDA	Q1 2025	N/A	$20–$40M	New
CFO	Q1 2025	N/A	$360–$380M	New
FCF	Q1 2025	N/A	$340–$360M	New
Revenue	FY 2025	N/A	$4,245–$4,345M	New
Bookings	FY 2025	N/A	$5,200–$5,300M	New
Adj. EBITDA	FY 2025	N/A	$190–$265M	New
CFO	FY 2025	N/A	$1,050–$1,110M	New
FCF	FY 2025	N/A	$800–$860M	New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
AI / Technology initiatives	Investing to help creators build better/safer; strong cash flow enabling platform investment	Efficiency initiatives; one‑time depreciation charge tied to infra	200+ AI pipelines; open‑sourced voice safety model; Roblox Assistant fully launched; Avatar Auto‑setup; 3D foundational model and text-gen NPCs planned for 1H’25	Accelerating
Search & Discovery	Focused on growth and quality content	Algorithm improvements drove strong bookings (April onward) per shareholder letter	AI‑powered personalization helped long‑tail beyond top 1,000 experiences grow faster; transparent discovery roadmap	Improving
Live Ops / Events	Not prominent	Q3 guidance/letter referenced platform-wide events in 2024	Reintroduced platform-wide events (The Hunt, The Classic, The Games, The Haunt, Winter Spotlight); more in 2025	Increasing
Monetization & Pricing	Growth in bookings; discipline on capex	Dynamic pricing and economy efforts; strong bookings growth	Differential pricing (more Robux on lower-cost platforms); paid access pipeline; intent to raise developer share over time	Improving
Ads & Brands	Not broken out; early initiatives	Continued brand partnerships	Streaming video ads, shopping ads, sponsor tiles; 5 of top 10 movies had activations; negligible in 2025 guide	Early, building
Regional trends	Global user growth	Record DAUs/hours; console launch impact	India/Japan DAUs >50% y/y; Eastern Europe/Turkey weaker DAU; mobile/desktop +26% in Q4; prepaid/console +22% in Dec	Mixed (strong APAC; E. Europe softer)
Regulatory/Safety	Focus on safety	Safety/infrastructure efficiency	40+ safety products in 2024; U13 chat changes; parental controls; more in 2025	Strengthening
R&D/Infra cost to serve	Reducing capex; improving cash flow	Efficiency, infra leverage	Infra/trust & safety costs ~flat; improved reliability (Dec “five‑nines” uptime)	Improving
Age‑up / Content genres	Broad ages; strong UGC	DAUs/hours records; genre expansion efforts	>61% DAUs are 13+; pushing RPG/sports/action; battle royale roadmap; aging up thesis reiterated	Improving

Management Commentary

CEO David Baszucki: “Q4 revenue, $988 million, up 32%… Q4 bookings, $1.362 billion, up 21%… DAUs… 85.3 million, up 19%,” highlighting >50% DAU growth in Japan/India and strong 13+ cohort .
CFO Michael Guthrie: “By December… mobile and desktop bookings were 27% growth and prepaid and console were 22% growth… that continued into the first quarter,” and noted working capital seasonality: negative in Q4, positive in Q1 .
CFO on 2025 margin drivers: planning headcount adds mid-to-high teens while maintaining cost leverage; continued infra/trust & safety cost-to-serve improvements; COGS leverage is a potential upside not embedded in guidance .
CEO on AI roadmap: 3D foundational model in Studio; text generation for AI characters; in‑experience 3D generation (e.g., fashion creation) envisioned in 1H’25 .

Q&A Highlights

Path to 10% of game content market: Focus on enabling high‑fidelity genres (e.g., battle royale on low‑end Android with cloud‑assisted 3D streaming scaling up to high‑end PC), transparent discovery, and improved developer economics (paid access up to 70% in some cases) .
Advertising: expanding product set (streaming video, user‑initiated video, sponsor tiles, shopping ads); negligible contribution embedded in 2025 outlook; breakout disclosure when scale is meaningful .
DAU/console comps and regions: Lapping PlayStation launch/Xbox updates; Eastern Europe softness (Turkey); India significant whitespace with >50% DAU growth .
Developer economics and AI: Differential pricing increases share to developers while allowing margin improvement via COGS efficiency; AI tools (Assistant, auto‑setup) improving productivity; paid access pipeline not seen as cannibalistic .
Consensus context: Management noted their implied Q1’25 EBITDA was ~9% above “your consensus,” and explained Q4/Q1 working capital dynamics impacting CFO/FCF seasonality .

Estimates Context

We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for revenue/EPS/EBITDA and target price, but the request hit a daily limit and was unavailable at this time. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable due to access limits.
Management indicated their implied guidance compared favorably to street models, stating they were “about 9% ahead of your EBITDA numbers,” while emphasizing working capital seasonality in Q4/Q1 when comparing CFO/FCF to EBITDA .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution strength: Q4 and FY24 both exceeded guidance across revenue, bookings, Adj. EBITDA and cash flow, underscoring durable operating leverage despite GAAP losses .
Momentum into Q1: December strength persisted into January; Q1’25 bookings growth guided 22%–24%, with higher 1H than 2H growth given very tough Q3’24 comps .
Monetization levers: Differential pricing, dynamic price optimization and paid access should support sustained bookings growth and higher developer earnings, with potential COGS leverage upside not embedded in 2025 guidance .
AI and discovery flywheel: 200+ AI pipelines, open‑sourced voice safety, Roblox Assistant, and planned 3D foundational model/text-gen NPCs can stimulate content velocity and engagement, reinforcing discovery gains beyond top titles .
Risk watch: Continued consolidated net losses, FX headwinds, console compare noise, and regional variability (e.g., Turkey) could modulate near‑term KPIs; however, infra/trust & safety cost discipline is evident .
Engagement quality: 13+ user growth and genre expansion (RPG, sports/racing, action) broaden TAM; notable ecosystem developments like Voldex acquiring Brookhaven highlight third‑party investment and maturation of top experiences .
Cash generation: FY25 FCF guided to $800–$860M with CFO $1.05–$1.11B, supporting continued platform investment while maintaining leverage to scale .

Appendix: Additional Context

FY24 Non‑GAAP reconciliations and deferral dynamics are provided in the press release and 8‑K shareholder letter .
Liquidity: Cash, equivalents and investments totaled ~$4.02B at 12/31/24; net liquidity ~$3.01B .
Accounting: The April 1, 2024 lifetime change (28→27 months) increased FY24 revenue by $98.0M and cost of revenue by $20.4M; Q4 impact was +$12.7M revenue and +$2.6M cost of revenue .

Roblox Corp (RBLX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary