Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
- RCL expects double-digit yield growth in Western Caribbean itineraries with the introduction of "Perfect Day Mexico", similar to the impact seen with "Perfect Day at CocoCay".
- The company has reached a key financial milestone, returning to a fully unsecured capital structure and generating over $3.3 billion in cash flow this year, enabling capital returns to shareholders through dividends and potential share repurchases.
- Net yields are up about 25% versus 2019 levels with no signs of hitting a ceiling in demand or pricing, supporting ongoing margin expansion and higher returns on investments.
- Significant Capital Expenditures May Strain Financial Resources: The company acquired the port for Perfect Day Mexico at a cost of $292 million, with additional development costs forthcoming, which could pressure capital resources.
- Lack of Priority on Debt Reduction Could Raise Leverage Concerns: Management indicated there is no priority on bringing debt down further outside of refinancing, which may raise concerns about the company's leverage profile.
- Potential Cost Pressures from Ongoing Investments: Continued investments in new projects could lead to cost pressures and introduce "noise" in financial numbers, potentially impacting margins.
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Earnings Guidance for 2025
Q: What are the pillars to achieve $14+ earnings in 2025?
A: Jason Liberty stated that to reach the $14 handle in 2025, they need moderate yield growth, continued effective cost management, and will benefit from lower interest costs due to balance sheet improvements. This guidance does not include additional share buybacks. -
Yield Uplift from Perfect Day Mexico
Q: Can we expect a double-digit yield uplift from Perfect Day Mexico?
A: Jason Liberty confirmed they anticipate a double-digit yield opportunity in the Western Caribbean with Perfect Day Mexico, similar to the uplift seen with CocoCay. They plan to leverage learnings from CocoCay to drive strong demand and enhance yields. -
Capital Allocation and Cash Flow
Q: Will cash flow be used for shareholders or balance sheet?
A: Naftali Holtz emphasized the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet and continuing to find ways to lower the cost of capital. While higher-cost debt is gone, they have reinitiated a dividend and may consider share buybacks opportunistically, aiming for a competitive dividend and potential capital returns to shareholders. -
Elevated Demand and Bookings Trends
Q: How are current demand patterns and bookings for 2025?
A: Jason Liberty noted that demand continues to rise each month, with elevated bookings and the ability to increase pricing. Despite hurricanes, they have seen strong demand in September and October, building a solid book position into next year. They are optimizing revenue for 2025 and beyond, focusing on yield growth and margin returns. -
Investments and Return Profile
Q: Why is your return profile better than ever before?
A: Jason Liberty explained that thoughtful investments over time, focusing on leading segments, enhancing experiences, and monetizing destinations have improved margins and returns. Leveraging technology and sophisticated yield management contributes to increased margins and a stronger return profile, with room for further improvement. -
Cost Control and Timing
Q: Can you share details on favorable cost timing and discipline?
A: Naftali Holtz mentioned that this year had a unique situation with double the number of dry docks compared to last year. Cost timing issues are related to supply chain impacts from suppliers. They are managing costs strongly, focusing on enhancing margins while making the right investments for the future. -
Moderate Yield Growth Guidance
Q: Does moderate yield growth include upside from new ships and destinations?
A: Jason Liberty stated that moderate yield growth factors in like-for-like growth and contributions from new hardware, typically adding about one point per year to yields. Introductions of private destinations move yields to the higher end of the range, but their outlook is based on historical trends. -
Order Book and Capacity Growth
Q: What is the status of your ship orders through 2028?
A: Jason Liberty indicated that they have placed orders through 2027 and into 2028, with many options secured. They subscribe to moderate capacity growth, looking to moderately grow their fleet and brands, confident in achieving yield growth over time. -
Ongoing Cost Pressures from Investments
Q: Should we expect ongoing cost pressures due to investments?
A: Naftali Holtz said they manage costs holistically, factoring in investments. While investments may add some costs, they have incredible returns and will lead to margin expansion. They are committed to moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth, and strong cost control. -
Texas Market Opportunity
Q: How do you view the underpenetrated Texas cruise market?
A: Michael Bayley highlighted that Perfect Day Mexico and Royal Beach Club Cozumel open opportunities to introduce more short products from Texas and Gulf ports. With new terminals and large ships, they offer extraordinary short breaks, tapping into a market with a similar propensity to cruise but half the penetration of other markets. -
Impact of Private Destinations on Margins
Q: Will Paradise Island have similar ancillary uplift as CocoCay?
A: Michael Bayley explained that the Royal Beach Club on Paradise Island will be an exclusive, all-for-pay experience, accommodating about 4,000 guests per day. Unlike CocoCay, it requires purchasing a ticket, making it a positive revenue generator with good margins. -
Impact of Hurricanes and Elections
Q: Do hurricanes and elections affect bookings and yields?
A: Jason Liberty noted hurricanes caused minimal impact, with no significant carry-through into 2025. Michael Bayley added that elections may cause slight volatility during election week, but over a longer period, there's effectively no impact on bookings, regardless of the outcome.
Research analysts covering ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES.