Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong capital base enabling shareholder returns and strategic growth initiatives: Raymond James Financial has a robust capital position and is committed to returning capital to shareholders through $200 million in share repurchases next quarter, while actively exploring accretive M&A opportunities to enhance the firm's competitive positioning.
- Continued strong net new asset growth and recruiting momentum: The firm continues to generate strong net new assets, positioning them at the top among peers, and expects growth to remain solid. RJF leverages its unique value proposition, strong financial strength, and advanced technology platform to attract advisors, despite increased competition.
- Diversified business model driving resilience and profitability across market environments: RJF's diversified business model has enabled it to generate over 20% pretax margins and record earnings over the last three years in varying market environments, highlighting its resilience and ability to capitalize on opportunities across different market conditions.
- Potential regulatory changes, such as the Department of Labor's proposal, could negatively impact the growth of insurance and annuity products within the Private Client Group, especially if new rules withstand industry challenges.
- Net interest income may face headwinds due to ongoing client cash sorting activity and uncertain rate environments, potentially leading to lower interest-sensitive earnings in both the Private Client Group and Bank segments.
- The firm expects non-compensation expenses to increase throughout the year as it invests in growth and ensures high service levels, which may pressure margins and impact profitability.
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Net New Assets Growth
Q: What's driving the acceleration in net new assets now?
A: The acceleration in net new assets is driven by strong retention and robust recruiting of larger teams. Despite retirements reducing adviser count numbers, assets are retained due to transition plans. The firm feels confident and believes they can do even better. -
Capital Return and M&A
Q: With strong capital, why not increase share buybacks, and what's your M&A outlook?
A: We were late into the quarter due to a blackout period but are committed to a $200 million buyback next quarter. We're balancing capital return with potential inorganic opportunities across all business segments. There's increased dialogue in the market, and we aim to be ready to execute on acquisitions while not hoarding capital. -
Margin Outlook with Market Improvement
Q: How will margins improve if investment banking picks up?
A: When operating at record levels, our capital markets segment achieved a maximum margin of around 26%. There's significant upside from breaking even this quarter, but we prefer to be conservative given uncertainties, especially around cash sorting dynamics. -
Deposit Betas Amid Rate Cuts
Q: What's the outlook for deposit pricing flexibility amid rate cuts?
A: We expect rates on ESP balances to align closely with Fed funds effective rates. With the Tri-State acquisition adding $18 billion in higher-cost deposits, we have more sensitivity. Our generous rates on sweep deposits give us cushion on the way down. -
Cash Sorting Dynamics
Q: Do you expect cash sorting to continue, and what's driving it?
A: Yes, we expect cash sorting to continue due to factors like seasonal tailwinds, quarterly fee billings over $1.3 billion, and competition from money market fund yields. We're closer to the end of this dynamic but won't declare it over without more evidence. -
Institutional Fixed Income Brokerage
Q: How should we think about normalization in institutional fixed income brokerage?
A: The market is fickle, but if liquidity improves and rates stabilize or decline, activity could pick up. December saw increased activity as liquidity eased. However, if rates rise, it will be a headwind. -
Lending Spreads and Excess Liquidity
Q: Are better lending spreads materializing, and will you grow loans?
A: Spreads have widened, but the market hasn't been robust in areas we prefer to lend. We're waiting for a resurgence in activity. We're ready to lend, but the opportunity to put on loans at previous rates hasn't presented itself yet. -
Recruiting Environment and RA Roll-ups
Q: How is the competitive environment for recruiting changing?
A: Recruiting hasn't slowed down, and we're now attracting larger teams of $20 million to $30 million. The biggest change is the emergence of RA roll-ups paying high prices, which we can't match. However, advisers choose us for the right reasons, not just the highest offer. , -
Use of Transition Assistance
Q: How do you view using transition assistance and loans to advisers?
A: Everyone uses transition assistance. We've consistently not been the highest payer to ensure advisers join us because it's the right place, not for the biggest check. -
Balance Sheet and Securities Portfolio
Q: Will you grow the securities portfolio to lock in yields?
A: We prefer to maintain a floating rate balance sheet and not try to time rates. We take duration only to support client needs, not to speculate on rate movements. The forward curve has been unreliable, so we choose to remain flexible.