RI
RESMED INC (RMD)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Delivered a strong print: revenue $1.35B (+10% YoY) and GAAP diluted EPS $2.58; non-GAAP EPS $2.55, with gross margin up 230 bps YoY to 60.8% (non-GAAP 61.4%). Sequential margin improved ~150 bps; management guided FY26 gross margin to 61–63% .
- Beat Wall Street: Q4 revenue $1.35B vs $1.33B consensus* and GAAP EPS $2.58 vs $2.48 consensus*; 13 EPS estimates and 17 revenue estimates underpin the consensus* (bold beat) *.
- Capital returns inflected: quarterly dividend raised 13% to $0.60 and buyback program increased to ~$150M per quarter starting Q1 FY26, ~1.5% share count reduction at current price; Q4 repurchased 419k shares for $100M .
- Operating leverage continues: non-GAAP operating margin ~35% with efficiencies in procurement, manufacturing, logistics; FX aided roughly half of the sequential GM improvement; FY26 SG&A guided to 19–20% of revenue and R&D to 6–7% .
- Strategic narrative: demand generation via GLP-1 and wearables plus diagnostics (VirtuOx, NightOwl) to unclog the funnel; CMS competitive bidding seen as benign; tariff exemptions reaffirmed; opening new Calabasas manufacturing capacity .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Gross margin expansion: GAAP GM up 230 bps YoY to 60.8% and non-GAAP GM to 61.4%, driven by procurement, manufacturing and logistics efficiencies plus FX; sequential GM +150 bps (bold improvement) .
- Broad-based growth: Devices +9% globally (cc +8%) and Masks +12% (cc +11%); U.S./Canada/LatAm +9% ex-RCS; Europe/Asia/ROW +13% (cc +9%); RCS +10% .
- Cash generation and returns: Q4 operating cash flow $539M; dividend lifted to $0.60; accelerated repurchases to ~$150M/quarter starting FY26 (strategic confidence) .
- Management quote: “We delivered 10% headline revenue growth, 230 basis points in non-GAAP gross margin expansion, and 23% non-GAAP EPS growth” .
What Went Wrong
- Effective tax rate uptick: Non-GAAP ETR in Q4 was 21.9% vs 18.7% prior-year; FY26 ETR guided up to 21–23% due to new legislation .
- FX sensitivity: Nearly half of sequential GM improvement came from currency; FX remains a swing factor despite structural cost progress .
- RCS leadership transition: Departure of the RCS Chief Commercial Officer amid integration to the broader organization introduces execution risk (though segment continues to be reported separately) .
Financial Results
Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus figures (*).
Segment breakdown (Revenue, $USD Millions):
KPIs and Balance Sheet Highlights:
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We delivered 10% headline revenue growth, 230 basis points in non-GAAP gross margin expansion, and 23% non-GAAP EPS growth.”
- “Our fiscal year 2025 free cash flow was $1.7 billion… flexibility to both invest in our business and return capital to our shareholders.”
- “Looking forward… we expect gross margin will be in the range of 61% to 63% in fiscal year 2026.”
- “We plan to… purchase shares to the value of approximately $150 million per quarter commencing in Q1 of fiscal year 2026.”
- “We’re really excited about VirtuOx… part of a long-term play… to scale home sleep apnea testing and free up lab capacity for complex cases.”
Q&A Highlights
- ROW devices growth: strong quarter; factors include tenders and market-specific dynamics; China improved; outlook mid-single-digit devices growth across geographies .
- Gross margin drivers: component cost improvements, logistics (sea-to-air freight ratio near pre-COVID), platform transition (AS10→AS11), FX half of sequential improvement; FY26 GM expected to improve across the year .
- Masks outperformance: share gains from AirTouch N30i and AirFit F40; enhanced resupply via Brightree/myAir; U.S. masks +12% .
- Competitive bidding: prior rounds proved benign; Medicare vs private pay aligned; expect modest impact; continued advocacy for patient access .
- GLP-1 and adherence: GLP-1-prescribed patients start PAP ~11% more; higher resupply at 1–2 years; combination therapy favored; demand-gen via CME to high-volume PCPs .
Estimates Context
- Q4 2025 actuals vs consensus: Revenue $1.348B vs $1.331B*; GAAP EPS $2.58 vs $2.48*; # of estimates: EPS 13*, Revenue 17* (bold beats) *.
- Implications: Consensus likely to drift higher for FY26 on GM trajectory (61–63% guided) and capital returns; tax-rate guidance (21–23%) may temper net EPS gains from margin expansion .
Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global (*).
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Margin story accelerating: Structural cost actions plus FX tailwinds lifted GM; FY26 GM guide 61–63% supports multi-quarter EPS revision potential (bold positive) .
- Capital return catalyst: Dividend raised to $0.60 and buybacks stepping up to ~$150M/quarter in FY26 (~1.5% share count), reinforcing confidence and potential support for the stock .
- Funnel expansion strategy: VirtuOx/NightOwl/VPAP Tx plus CME to PCPs target faster diagnosis and setup; expect durable demand generation from GLP-1s and wearables over 1–5 years .
- Benign externalities: Tariff exemptions reaffirmed; CMS competitive bidding likely modest; manufacturing expansion in Calabasas reduces supply chain risk .
- Masks share gains: Innovative interfaces (AirTouch N30i, AirFit F40) and resupply programs underpin above-market growth—key driver for near-term revenue/mix .
- Watch FX and tax: FX contributed meaningfully to sequential GM; FY26 tax-rate increase (21–23%) is a headwind to net EPS leverage .
- Near-term trading: Focus on FY26 GM cadence (starting lower, exiting higher), RCS integration milestones, and evidence of HSAT throughput improvements; any incremental clarity on CMS could be a volatility event .