Red Robin Gourmet Burgers - Q2 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Incorporated Q2 2024 earnings call. This conference is being recorded. During management's presentation and in response to your questions, they will be making forward-looking statements about the company's business outlook and expectations. These forward-looking statements, and all other statements that are not historical facts, reflect management's beliefs and predictions as of today, and therefore are subject to risks and uncertainties as described in the company's SEC filings. Management will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures as a part of today's conference call. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, but are intended to illustrate alternative measures of the company's operating performance that may be useful. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the earnings release.

The company has posted in its Q2 2024 earnings release on its website at ir.redrobin.com. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Red Robin's President and Chief Executive Officer, G.J. Hart. G.J., please go ahead.

G.J. Hart (CEO)

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for your interest in Red Robin. Our results for the Q2 and our reduced outlook for the remainder of the year are not what we expected when we last communicated in May, with the slowdown experienced in the broader restaurant industry masking the substantial progress we continue to make against our North Star Plan. While we cannot control the macroeconomic environment, we hold ourselves accountable to deliver a great experience to every guest through our high-quality gourmet burgers and our family-friendly atmosphere. We measure multiple proof points that the initiatives we implemented over the past twenty months have elevated the guest experience. This is showcased best by guest satisfaction scores increasing to levels Red Robin has not achieved since two thousand and sixteen.

During the past three months, comparable restaurant revenue exceeded the industry average, as measured by Black Box Intelligence, and traffic returned to in line with the industry. In each of the trailing three weeks, despite the challenging environment, comparable restaurant revenue returned to marginally positive. With this progress, we continue to expect to meet or exceed the industry average on traffic through the remainder of the year. Before I dive into more specifics, I'd like to extend a heartfelt thank you to all of the more than 20,000 team members across the country. Your hard work and dedication to our guests is what drives us every day to be better. We will succeed in revitalizing this beloved brand with all of us working towards the same goals, all in this together. Starting with operations, delivering a great guest experience is the backbone of our turnaround efforts.

When we announced the North Star Plan, our guest satisfaction score lagged the casual dining industry by ten points, representing the widest margin in nearly a decade. It is our firm belief that a beloved brand like Red Robin should be leading in this area. At the heart of everything we do is a commitment to great hospitality, serving delicious food at a great price, and creating a fun, friendly atmosphere with every visit. I'm proud that we have delivered significant gains across this area of our business. As part of these initiatives, in 2023, we added servers, allowing each to focus their effort on fewer tables and reduce false waits. We brought back hosts and busers to improve table turns and cleanliness, and we returned to a dedicated kitchen expo and management structure to provide timely and accurate delivery of orders.

Importantly, we continue to see positive momentum from our efforts. Compared to the scores in the Q2 of 2023, we have seen manager visits, 13% more tables than last year. This dedication from the management team is critically important for many reasons, including that we know when a manager visits a table, engages our guests, guests rate their experience 12% better. Our guests report a 7% improvement on pace of experience and 3% gains in orders served on time. Wait times greater than 15 minutes are an indicator of false waits. In the Q2 of 2022, 10% of our guests reported waiting more than 15 minutes, and in the Q2 of 2023, it was reduced to 3%, and now down to 1% in the Q2 of this year.

All guest measures in the off-premise portion of our business have increased, led by a 7% increase in order accuracy and taste of food, and a 6% increase in friendliness of our team. We've also made investments in our food, including flat top grills, which deliver a thicker, juicier, and more flavorful burger, unveiled more than 20 improved gourmet burgers prepared with high-quality ingredients, expanded our bottomless menu with more than 30 items that provide unmatched value to our guests, and upgraded our bar menu to include higher-quality brands that our guests know and love. Again, the proof's in the numbers. Looking year-over-year, we have seen: we've executed our Bottomless Promise offer to 90% of our guests, a 9% increase versus last year.

Food quality scores improved by 4%, according to surveys from our Royalty guests, and food quality scores outperformed the casual dining average by 3%, according to Technomic. The result of these initiatives is overall guest satisfaction that has reached parity to the casual dining industry over the last two quarters for the first time in almost nine years. Importantly, the improvement in guest satisfaction is showing up through many different sources, including: dine-in overall guest satisfaction scores have increased 6%, Black Box social net sentiment is up 17%, and negative guest complaints are at an all-time low, declining 29% versus the Q2 of last year. Providing a great guest experience to our guests remains the single most important element to improving the performance of our business, and is the largest contributing factor to deliver growth in guest traffic counts.

It requires a relentless pursuit of executing the fundamentals at every level, which our teams are dedicated to pushing toward every day, on every shift, for every guest, and we are truly proud of the significant progress that we are making on this front. Following the improvements we made last year, 2024 is about putting Red Robin back on the map in the minds of consumers, communicating value, and harnessing the power of our relaunched loyalty program to drive guest engagement. Starting in March, we rolled out our new marketing plan. As part of the plan, we tested multiple applications to understand the response curve for increased spending levels of targeted digital media, including the use of selective traditional TV. We began by promoting the competitive breadth and value of our 30 Bottomless menu items, far more than, only the Bottomless Steak Fries many guests know us for.

We highlighted our upgraded high-quality ingredients and reintroduced fun to our iconic brand. We improved guest engagement and grew our loyalty members with a focus on new member sign-ups and communicating the great benefits of being a Red Robin fan. In May, we launched our Leave Room for Fun campaign that was developed to take back our ownable position as the most engaging and fun experience in casual dining, while continuing to emphasize the quality transformation of our menu and competitive value offerings. This included contemporary new imagery, putting more humanity into our marketing, injected a more positive and confident tone, while igniting our guest's inner child with connective new ads like Fun Guy, which garnered over 1.5 million views in the first week in market.

We incorporated initial learnings and worked to optimize our media mix by doubling down on social and digital streaming, TV, and video, including platforms such as Amazon, Hulu, and other strong partners. This targeted approach was intended to drive greater efficiency and reach among our core target guests. The test groups showcased that increased ad spend drives incremental traffic at Red Robin, and in some markets, delivered results better than the casual dining segment based in Black Box data. In each of the two test groups, our team was able to deliver a benchmark 2% traffic lift. While it was appropriate and necessary to test higher spending levels, we also executed a test with more efficient tactics and spending levels.

Our team did a great job to deliver the same 2% lift with strategies that invested approximately $400 per restaurant per week, rather than the $3,000 per restaurant per week in the higher investment group. This efficiency was achieved with a mix of digital, social, and owned and earned channels to reach the right guest at the right time. As we look towards the remainder of 2024 and into 2025, these learnings give us great confidence in our ability to drive traffic, while at the same time, rationalizing our spending levels with these efficient tactics. Turning to loyalty. In May, we relaunched our revamped Red Robin Royalty program. Under our new program, guests earn one point for every dollar spent. After earning 100 points, guests receive a $10 reward, good for both dine-in as well as online orders.

This allows guests to earn a reward much faster than the previous program, and encourages more frequent visitation to capitalize on their earned rewards. The 90-day redemption window for earned rewards provides an incentive for return visits. Guest response during the first 10 weeks of this program has exceeded our expectations. Our operators have done a great job engaging with guests and driving enrollment in the program. Since the launch of the new program, guest sign-ups have increased from 60,000 to 90,000 per 4-week financial period prior to the loyalty launch, to an average of 160,000 since. These sign-ups are an increase of 156% versus the same time frame in 2023.

130,000 new members signed up and completed a transaction in the last four weeks of the Q2, up 240% from the same period last year. New loyalty members are visiting more frequently. The average time until a second visit has been reduced from 51 days to 39 days. Additionally, the number of members transacting two times or more has increased 12%, with the largest increase in members typically visiting two to five times per year. Loyalty guests typically spend more than non-loyalty members. The total check for our loyalty guests has increased to approximately $4.40 greater than the non-loyalty guests from approximately $2.90 previously.

We have demonstrated good early success reactivating lapsed members to come and experience the upgrades we have made in food and hospitality. In addition, we can now utilize our new customer data capability to drive future visitation with more personalized communication to compel the next visit. As we continue to cultivate our relationship with new and existing guests alike, we're adding layers of gamification, surprise, and delight, and even exclusive access to new menu items through Royalty 2.0. With the success of the launch of the new program, our total membership is over 14.2 million guests as of the end of the Q2, and we expect that figure will continue to grow. We are pleased with the launch and initial traction of this new loyalty program, and fully expect it to be a key driver of traffic for our future business.

Overall, I'm very proud of the progress we have made against our North Star Plan as our guest experience is substantially improved. We've become more efficient and effective with how we deploy our marketing dollars, and we are in the early stages of utilizing our new loyalty program to be a driver of traffic and sales growth going forward. With that, I'll turn the call over to Todd to walk you through the financial performance before I provide some closing remarks.

Todd Wilson (CFO)

Thank you, G.J., and good afternoon, everyone. In the Q2, total revenues were $300.2 million, versus $298.6 million in the Q2 of fiscal 2023. Comparable restaurant revenue increased 1.4%, benefiting 220 basis points from revenue recognized related to the relaunch of our loyalty program. Excluding the benefit of the loyalty-related revenue recognition, our comparable restaurant revenue decreased 0.8%. The decline was driven by results in the second half of the quarter related to the broad-based consumer slowdown experienced across the industry. Comparable restaurant revenue in the first six weeks of the quarter increased 0.4%, then declined 1.9% in the final six weeks.

Now, in the Q3, we've seen comparable restaurant revenue results in each of the past three weeks return to marginally positive. Restaurant level operating profit as a percentage of restaurant revenue was 11.8%, a decrease of eighty basis points compared to the Q2 of 2023. The decline was primarily driven by lower guest counts and our strategic investments in labor and food quality to support hospitality and the guest experience. This investment is the foundation for improved financial performance, and we expect it to drive guests back into our restaurants and increase profitability. We experienced greater inflation than we expected in our commodity basket, particularly ground beef, chicken, and produce. Additionally, labor costs are elevated relative to our expectation, led by two primary factors.

First, our newer leaders and team members are working to build mastery and efficiency in their roles, resulting in a near-term increase in labor costs that we expect to normalize in time. Second, we experienced a spike in high-dollar health insurance claims well above the actuarial norm that totaled approximately $1.5 million in the Q2. Our claims experience to date in the Q3 indicates a return to the actuarial expectation. Our team continues to do great work pursuing and capturing thoughtful cost savings that maintain our commitment of parity or better for the guest experience. In the Q2, we launched key new initiatives, including a reboot of our actual versus theoretical food cost measurement and reporting to assist our operators in identifying and reducing food waste.

We also continue to pursue opportunities to consolidate vendors and use our scale to our advantage across multiple categories, including proteins. General and administrative costs were $16.6 million, as compared to $20.1 million in the Q2 of 2023. The reduction results primarily from reduced accrual of incentive compensation expenses. Selling expenses were $12 million, an increase versus the prior year of $5.3 million. The increase results primarily from an increase in guest-facing marketing activity and related production costs, and the marketing spend optimization testing we completed during the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $11.8 million in the Q2 of 2024.

The $3.6 million decline versus the Q2 of 2023 was driven by lower guest counts, occupancy costs related to our sale-leaseback transactions, and the increased health insurance costs I referenced earlier. We ended the Q2 with $23.1 million of cash and cash equivalents, $8 million of restricted cash, and $25 million available borrowing capacity under our revolving line of credit. At quarter end, our outstanding principal balance under our credit agreement was $167.9 million. Turning now to our 2024 guidance, we have updated our guidance to the following: Total revenue of approximately $1.25 billion. Restaurant level operating profit of 11.0% to 11.5%, inclusive of investments in the guest experience and rent expenses related to the sale leaseback transactions.

Adjusted EBITDA of $40 million to 45 million. As a reminder, as is historical practice for Red Robin, our reported adjusted EBITDA and our adjusted EBITDA guidance do not add back non-cash stock-based compensation expenses, which we estimate will total approximately $7 million in 2024. Capital expenditures of $25 million to 30 million. The largest contributing factor to our guidance reduction is a change in our underlying assumption for the casual dining industry traffic for the remainder of the year. While in each of the most recent three weeks, traffic trends have improved and comparable restaurant sales have been marginally positive, we are approaching our revised guidance cautiously, given the choppiness in the consumer environment. We also updated our expectations for commodity inflation, labor, labor costs, and various other inputs.

Our expectations for the Q3 and Q4 individually are as follows: In the Q3, we anticipate comparable restaurant traffic will decline approximately 5%, in line with recent trends, and PPA will increase approximately 5%. Our PPA expectation includes the benefit of what we expect is our final menu increase of 2024 in mid-September. From a profitability perspective, the Q3 typically represents the low point of our seasonal guest traffic and sales volumes, resulting in our expectation for a minimal adjusted EBITDA contribution. In the Q4, we anticipate comparable restaurant traffic will decline 4% to 5%, and PPA will increase 7% to 8%. The increase in PPA results from the September menu increase being effective for the full Q4.

This pricing action is preemptive to legislated labor increases that are effective in many states on January first, and we anticipate PPA increases will then moderate through 2025. From a profitability perspective, seasonal guest traffic and sales volumes typically increase in the holiday season, resulting in greater adjusted EBITDA contribution in the Q4 relative to the Q3. We expect total selling expenses of approximately $38 million in 2024, driven by a reoptimized allocation of funds based on our efficiency and effectiveness learnings from the first half of the year. We currently expect these learnings will result in selling expenses of approximately $30 million in 2025. We expect G&A expenses will be approximately $81 million in 2024, reduced from our initial expectations due to anticipated lower incentive compensation expenses and other cost savings measures.

Finally, as we have shared previously, our fiscal calendar reverts to a 52-week fiscal year in 2024, as compared to 53 weeks in 2023. We expect this will result in an approximate $25 million reduction in restaurant sales and $3 million reduction in Adjusted EBITDA as compared to 2023. Now moving to our credit agreement. On August 21st, we executed an amendment to the credit agreement. Most notably, and among other items, the amendment increases our compliance leverage ratios and expands the revolver from $25 million to 40 million from the Q3 of fiscal 2024 through the Q3 of fiscal 2025. The additional financial flexibility supports our efforts executing the North Star Plan. We appreciate the great partnership from our lender group, led by Fortress, and thank you to everyone who contributed to completing this work.

With that, I will turn the call back over to G.J.

G.J. Hart (CEO)

Thank you, Todd. While we expect it may be a dynamic consumer environment in the near term, our teams are focused on executing our strategic plan each and every day to position Red Robin for long-term success. We see measurable proof points from our guests that the initiatives we put in place over the past twenty months have strengthened our operations, improved our food offerings, and created experiences guests enjoy. We are committed to taking prudent action to rationalize our cost structure through the changes in selling and G&A expenses, and we've created helpful financial flexibility with our amended credit agreement. As we look to the coming years, we believe 2024 will be a trough for our financial performance that then rebounds on the back of these efforts in 2025 and, and beyond.

Collectively, the actions we are taking and the great feedback we continue to receive from guests and team members give us great confidence we are on the path to long-term success for this beloved brand. We are now happy to take questions, so operator, please open up the lines.

Operator (participant)

Certainly. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to be placed into question queue, please press star one on your telephone keypad. You may press star two if you'd like to remove a question from the queue. Once again, that's star one to be placed in the question queue. Our first question is coming from Jeremy Hamblin from Craig-Hallum. Your line is now live.

Jeremy Hamblin (Senior Research Analyst)

Good evening. Thanks for taking the questions. So I wanted to just start with the change in the EBITDA guide, lowered $20 million to 25 million. And just understand the components of that change versus what you expected at the end of May, as your revenue guide is only, you know, really at the lower end of your prior range. So just if your restaurant level margins are gonna be 150 to 200 basis points lower, could you help us kind of break down the component parts to get to that 150 to 200 basis point change?

Todd Wilson (CFO)

Hey, Jeremy, Todd here. Happy to walk through that. I think a couple headlines that bridge that for you. You know, first, as you alluded to, you know, if you go back to our guidance at the end of the prior quarter, we thought we saw a path, and frankly, we were on the path to returning to positive traffic in the third and the Q4s. And with the shift that we saw in the consumer environment in the middle of the Q2, it felt right given the trends that we were seeing to pare that back. And so, you know, I talked about the traffic in our Q3 and Q4 guide, you know, in a down 4% to 5% range. So it's a roughly 6% reduction in our traffic expectation in the balance of the year.

That's about $15 million of the EBITDA change. The other two components I call out, we saw some of the impact in Q2. One is on commodities, Ground beef, Chicken, and Produce have run higher in terms of cost and inflation than we previously expected. That's about $3 million, and we've baked in about $3 million for some of the labor pressures that we saw and that I talked to in Q2 as well. And so there's obviously other puts and takes within the model, but those are the big three in terms of the EBITDA change.

Jeremy Hamblin (Senior Research Analyst)

So just to clarify, the traffic reduction is, you know, which is the majority of the difference that you're seeing, that's kind of spread evenly across your line items, or, you know, it's more of deleveraging in occupancy and other operating expenses?

Todd Wilson (CFO)

There's certainly deleveraging in those fixed costs, as you allude to. You know, just to make sure I was clear on that, in our prior guidance, we had traffic of roughly +1 in the balance of the year, and we're now seeing, you know, a more current trend of down four to five. We certainly, you know, we commented on it in the prepared remarks. You know, we certainly take an approach that we recognize it's obviously a big change. Our thought process is if we're gonna take the number down, we only wanna do it once and then work our way back up. So we certainly hope that that proves to be conservative, but you certainly are seeing the deleveraging in the restaurant level profits from the fixed costs, as you allude to.

Jeremy Hamblin (Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful. And then just wanna understand in terms of the G&A expense on a go-forward basis, as you think about that, you know, moving into 2025, how would you assess where you expect that level to be on a continuing basis, assuming that your restaurant base is roughly the same as where it's gonna end 2024?

Todd Wilson (CFO)

Yeah, Jeremy, as we think about it right now, and obviously, we'll come back with more holistic 2025 guidance later this year. But as we think about it right now, you know, if you rewind, we came into this year anticipating roughly $90 million of expense. Now, some of the favorability in this year's number is due to incentive compensation that we would expect to reload next year, so to speak. But we see more like an $85 million run rate going forward into 2025.

Jeremy Hamblin (Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful. And then just a last one is really on the, kind of the consumer response here in the loyalty program. Definitely been a shift, I think, across the restaurant category to more value-based options. And, you know, just wanted to get an understanding of how you're thinking about pivoting, potentially, the lineup of offerings that you have, or potentially LTOs, as we progress through the rest of this year.

G.J. Hart (CEO)

Yeah. Hey, Jeremy, it's G.J. Well, you know, as we've been going through this year, the real focus around bottomless and 30 bottomless items, and that's really picked up steam, given people really only knew us for bottomless fries. So that's number one. Number two, the Tavern Burger, which is a lower price option on our menu today. We've been featuring it, and it's been getting quite the traction as well. And then we are sporadically. You know, we came off of a lot of deep discounting that the company was doing prior to my arrival here and trying to get off of that, and we've done a good job doing that. And then to your point about value now, really focusing on those two items.

In addition to that, trying to find some other times, like in the lower or the earlier part of the week where we do lower volumes, can we run some promotional activity? We run a $10 Tuesday that we just rolled out, that is doing very well for us. We're doing some add-on promotional activity called Monster Mondays for shakes, margaritas, and that's doing well. So we're sporadically putting that in there. But what we don't wanna do is go back to the deep, deep discounting. We think that we are offering quite the value. In fact, our value scores are good at this point, and we are seeing traction, as Todd and I pointed out in the comments earlier, that we are seeing a nice lift.

So we feel like we're in the right direction and feel like we really are screaming value.

Jeremy Hamblin (Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Thanks for taking the questions. Best wishes.

G.J. Hart (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question is coming from Todd Brooks from the Benchmark Company. Your line is now live.

Todd Brooks (Senior Analyst & Managing Director)

Hey, thanks for taking my questions. First, on loyalty, if we can. It sounds like the relaunch outstripped your expectations, and G.J., you've talked about really loyalty being the key driver of the last piece of the traffic recovery that the brand should experience based on all the work that you've done over the past 18 months. I know we've got a macro level overwhelm of some of the benefits in the near term, but as you think about the early performance of loyalty, just what type of contribution do you see that program being to driving traffic as you start to get out to fiscal 2025 and beyond?

Todd Wilson (CFO)

Yeah. Hey, Todd. Is your question relative to how much of a traffic driver compared to the overall business, or is that?

Todd Brooks (Senior Analyst & Managing Director)

Yeah, I'm trying to think about, okay, if there's going to be a return to traffic, and you've seen improvement in really every metric operationally and satisfaction-wise. If I start to think about Red Robin-specific traffic drivers in 2025 versus industry, what do you see that delta being, given that the program seems to be outperforming even your initial expectations?

Todd Wilson (CFO)

You are right. It is definitely outpacing what we would have expected. We are very, very pleased with that. We are seeing, you know, as we pointed out, with the kind of membership, the new members with the 130,000 new members signed up that transacted in the last four weeks, that's telling us this is gonna be a big portion of our drive of our guest recovery perspective. But, short of putting a number on that, Todd, I will tell you something else, is that we've been going out to lapsed users as well, and we're seeing phenomenal uptake on that as well, coming back into the restaurants.

Of course, with our overall guest satisfaction scores going up like they have, you know, we fully anticipate that, that's gonna continue to drive guest counts as well. So, and then, of course, the spend, the overall check is higher, as we pointed out, significantly higher. We're very pleased with that. So for all those reasons, I would tell you that even as bullish as I was before, that I'm more bullish now in terms of how it drives our business. So I'm not giving you the exact, because I don't really have the number, but we fully anticipate it to lead the way.

Todd Brooks (Senior Analyst & Managing Director)

Great. Thanks, GJ. And then, Todd, a follow-up for you, and I'll jump back in queue. Can you walk us through the thinking and the process behind seeking out the amendment? My sense was that it may be out of, like, a focus on real kind of security around liquidity versus need. And can you give us any color? I know you went from a variable pricing grid to a more SOFR plus type of model here. Just the cost of the amendment and maybe where this pushes us out now for a longer-term rework to the credit facility. Thanks.

Todd Wilson (CFO)

Yeah, Todd, appreciate the questions. You know, the thinking was, a couple things drove it. Obviously, we saw the change in the consumer in the middle of the Q2, and, you know, I'm sure you have, but for everyone, you know, the credit agreement as it was structured, when we entered into it back in 2022, had progressive step downs in the compliance leverage ratios. And I would point out, we were fully in compliance at the end of the Q2. Obviously, we just executed the amendment yesterday, but it was really those step downs that as we looked forward, we felt like to make sure that we have the time and the flexibility to let the North Star Plan really play out, we wanted to create some room to maneuver there.

And so this creates additional room out through the Q3 of 2025, both on covenants and on the revolver. And so that's really what spurred it, to really just being proactive, to look forward and making sure that we can operate the business and execute the overall plan. Forgive me, as part-

Todd Brooks (Senior Analyst & Managing Director)

The cost of it, Todd?

Todd Wilson (CFO)

I'm sorry, Todd?

Todd Brooks (Senior Analyst & Managing Director)

Just the cost of the amendment as far as rates go and how it's changing maybe our timing of reworking the full agreement.

Todd Wilson (CFO)

Yeah, a few comments there, Todd. You know, the interest rate does take a tick up. It's always been a variable rate. It was previously plus six hundred and fifty basis points. This does move us to plus seven fifty, but we felt like that was a market price for the flexibility that we were looking for. In terms of the refinance that we've talked about in the past, you know, we thought of a few things there. You know, one, while there is a tick up in the rate, we are optimistic that we get some relief in terms of overall interest rates in the base rate, and that helps to defray some of that cost. And secondary, you know, realistically, the current credit agreement matures in 2027.

And so, you know, natural timing both for the improvement in the business that we expect over the coming year, as well as getting ahead of that maturity. We would expect to be doing something next year anyway. And so, we felt like it was a short-term price to pay for the additional flexibility.

Todd Brooks (Senior Analyst & Managing Director)

Okay, great. Thank you both.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Alex Slagle from Jefferies. Your line is now live.

Alexander Slagle (Equity Research Analyst)

All right. Thanks. Hey, guys.

Todd Wilson (CFO)

Hey, Alex.

Alexander Slagle (Equity Research Analyst)

Wanted to just kind of ask, I guess, just all the upgrades you've made to the guest experience, and, I mean, I realize it's a bit of a stew with so many components, but, I mean, what do you think to date, like, would have been the biggest needle movers for you? And then just sort of how to think about the lag before we see these improved metrics translate into traffic in a bigger way. And I know every turnaround is sort of different, so it's hard to point to past experience, but, you know, it sounds like you're expecting 2025 to be a bit better where things come together, but maybe you can kind of talk through that a little bit.

Todd Wilson (CFO)

Sure. Um,

G.J. Hart (CEO)

First of all, I would say that the lag I want to just comment on, you know, we saw, as we pointed out in the first part of the Q2, comps being marginally positive, and then it seemed like around July the 5th, because we had a good, strong July 4th. July the 5th, things sort of fell apart there for a while in the industry. And, you know, remember, all this time, as we pointed out in our comments, we continue to make great improvements. In fact, you know, we're now, you know, continuing to make better improvements against the industry. And so, you know, things went a little bit south there from July 5th until really the end of July.

And since that time, now we're seeing an uptick from even the beginning, so of that quarter. So, you know, and I think that's as a reaction of us really continuing to stay the course. And to this first part of your question was around what are the key drivers? I would tell you, there's a whole bunch of them that we pointed out in terms of metrics. But I would tell you that number one is manager table visits, manager presence, manager being out in the dining room and really helping us control the flow of people, which then secondly, goes to the host stand in terms of, false waits are basically nonexistent, and we continue to see people in a very, very orderly fashion, and they're happy with that. So those two are sort of tied together.

The second one is our execution on food on multiple fronts, the quality of delivery of the food, and secondly, the timing of the food. So we're getting food out on time, and the quality is there. As we noticed on Technomic, we continue to do very well against the industry. We're above the industry in terms of overall food quality, so our guests tell us. So we feel like those are the key drivers here that will really move the needle. And I just go back to the point that, you know, look, we're cautiously optimistic as we go into the third and Q4 here with what we're seeing. But as you can imagine, we're not the only ones that from July 5th to July 31st, it was sort of like, oh, shit, excuse my language, what's happening to this business?

So, you know, it's changed again, so we're feeling like what we're doing is right, and we feel like that the overall reaction is starting to gain traction here, and these things do take time. It's not like we've been at this forever, and we do feel like that things are taking hold. Hopefully, that's helpful.

Alexander Slagle (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah. Yeah, that is helpful, and it has been a bit of whiplash for many out there, so good managing through it. And Todd, I guess, efforts on just removing costs and complexity, and you've highlighted the targeted savings for 2024, and I know you're always looking for opportunities, but do you, where do you think you'll find the next opportunity out there? Are there certain processes or that still look too complex or other big areas of inefficiency that you want to dig into?

Todd Wilson (CFO)

Yeah, Alex, you know, I highlighted the actual versus theoretical, A versus T. I'm sure you know that term. Yeah, we've always had that system. You know, if I'm honest, I don't know that it was as fine-tuned and that it was as helpful to our operators as it needs to be. And that's the work that, you know, the operations team, our supply chain team, has done over the last six months to really refine that. So, you know, we think that's a pretty big opportunity. I also comment on the supply chain and just using our scale, but whether it's consolidating vendors, you know, we've talked in the past about our distribution contract that comes up for renewal next year. You know, we've done a really good job, in my opinion, capturing the savings.

But I think more importantly to your question, as we look forward, there's still plenty in front of us. That well has plenty to continue to produce, and the team's done a great job capturing those things.

G.J. Hart (CEO)

I would add, too, Alex, just one more thing, is that, and Todd commented on this. From a labor perspective, as you know, we've added a lot of investment back into labor. While getting those folks from managers all the way down to hourly team members, both front and back, getting them trained, getting them used to executing at the level that we require and expect, and get more proficient at it, that's going to help drive our overall labor costs to be more efficient and help drive labor costs down. And so we feel like we're better staffed than we've been in a long, long time. We feel like we've got much better quality staff, and that will also pay dividends into 2025.

Alexander Slagle (Equity Research Analyst)

Yep. Good point. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Andrew Wolf, from CL King. Your line is now live.

Andrew Wolf (Senior Equity Analyst)

Thanks. Good afternoon. I want to follow up to the labor question and, let me just ask, you know, I mean, you know, you staffed up and trained up and, you know, and yet, as the industry environment, you know, guests aren't coming to the degree expected. So how do you kind of philosophically think about, you know, taking care of the financials for companies as levered as you guys are, and, you know, making sure you don't kind of backslide on labor? Because I think, you know, it's clearly, you know, obviously, things changed in the environment, so I assume you're tightening up labor a little. But to your point, you're now got some trained people who can actually deliver what you want to the guests.

Just wondering how your puts and takes on that and how much risk you're willing to take on losing good staff versus, you know, you know, from the financial side of things.

G.J. Hart (CEO)

Yeah, sure. I'll give a shot at that, as best as I can here. When I said that, we fully expect 2025 to get better because our folks are trained. Remember one thing, this industry still has 100%+ turnover. Even though our turnover continues to come down, and we're doing, I think, really well against the industry from a turnover perspective. You're constantly training. So it's really incumbent upon our training teams, our training center restaurants, as well as our managers. And the managers, all that we put in place, remember, there's over 300 kitchen managers in 2023 and now into 2024 that we've added on. It takes a while before they get up to speed, and that's really where we're gonna start to see that leverage.

I've been at this a long time, and you know, I'll just tell you that at the end of the day, you have to deliver on the promise to our guests on food quality and execution on hospitality. It takes a certain amount of investment to do that, and the company had really, as you know, and we've talked about, had declined on both of those, and that investment we've put back in. Every metric that we've delivered messages on today are positive signs of a growing business that traffic is going to follow. And again, as I pointed out, you know, that during that short window, mid-July to the end of July, we really started to see the uplift, and now we're seeing that again. Hopefully, that will continue.

And so, we feel like staying the course, every metric is positive, that as we get better and better at this, that it's the right business decision. Now, look, at the end of the day, if the world fell apart, of course, we're gonna think about the world differently. But right now, I've been doing this a long time, I think we're doing the right things. And if I wasn't seeing the signals like I am, with just things like overall satisfaction scores, and our team member engagement has year-over-year is just phenomenal improvements. So we've got a good culture out there. We've got people feeling generally good about what we're doing. They're the ones executing it. Our guests are responding with all the positive metrics that we're seeing.

So we think we're doing the right thing for the shareholders and for the brand long term.

Andrew Wolf (Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay, thank you. Appreciate that explanation. And just, this might be for Todd, kind of, a housekeeping. The 2.2%, the comp benefit from the loyalty change, is that in the actual sales of the restaurant line? Is that in the $6 million+ number in sales?

Todd Wilson (CFO)

Yeah, Andy, you're interpreting that right. The rationale that Red Robin's always had, and I think this makes sense, when the revenue is deferred, it comes out of that line, so to speak. And so when there is breakage, it goes back into that restaurant revenue line.

Andrew Wolf (Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay. So it's a pure flow-through down to the profits?

Todd Wilson (CFO)

Correct. That's the right way to think about it.

Andrew Wolf (Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay, thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question is coming from Mark Smith from Lake Street Capital. Your line is now live.

Mark Smith (Senior Research Analyst)

Hi, guys. First question for me, just, housekeeping. Todd, can you just walk us through again, the kind of outlook on selling expense, this year? And I think you gave some 2025 outlook as well.

Todd Wilson (CFO)

Yeah, Mark, we're still expecting to get right around $38 million on selling. You know, obviously, that's if you look at the first half of the year and the second half of the year, it's a step down in terms of run rate in the second half of the year, but that's supported by what G.J. walked through in the prepared remarks on the efficiency that the marketing team was able to achieve. So think of $38 million in terms of total year. And as we think about it now, we think that's probably split pretty evenly between Q3 and Q4. Building, though, on that, we did share a perspective on 2025, that again, we'll fine-tune this as we get closer to next year.

But we see a path to $30 million next year, again, based on those efficiency learnings, that give us confidence that we can still drive traffic based on what we proved in the first half of the year, but at a much more efficient cost.

Mark Smith (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. And my second question maybe fits in with that as well. Just as we look at the competitive environment, maybe other casual diners hitting similar price points, especially in kind of burger, you know, are there still levers that you can pull within kind of that marketing, to drive that traffic? And kinda how are you telling the story and can continue to tell that story to really differentiate, you know, yourselves from, you know, peers that are maybe hitting similar price points?

G.J. Hart (CEO)

Hey, Mark. Well, one of the things that we have been working on and talking about is being much more targeted in our communication to our guests. And so as we revamp the loyalty platform, we now have a better way to communicate on a regular basis to our loyalty members, what's going on, what are the latest LTOs, what's the surprise and delight? All on and on and on. In fact, we longer term want to be very personalized, knowing how they dine with us and what their expectations are, and we could be much more targeted. And that's a very efficient way to be able to do it. We continue to be involved in the communities. Red Robin was built on being a local store marketer, and we are gaining really, really good traction by being able to communicate.

Granted, it's a longer-term view, but this company has done that well for many, many years. Went away from it, we brought it back, and we're seeing great traction there. And of course, as we pointed out in our different media tests, you know, this targeted approach of social, digital, and search, along with LSM and PR, let's not forget PR, because we are getting a lot of PR these days, are all good ways to be able to move the business forward. And so with the tests, we feel really good about being able to do that. And again, that's the way we're thinking about it today. We'll continue to inform that as we move forward, depending on what we're seeing right now.

Again, point out the fact that we're feeling good about the direction today of what we're seeing here in the near term.

Mark Smith (Senior Research Analyst)

Excellent. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We've reached the end of our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further closing comments.

G.J. Hart (CEO)

Thank you guys very much for being with us tonight, and we look forward to next quarter and reporting out to you, and appreciate your time today. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.