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Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. is a Delaware corporation that operates, franchises, and develops casual dining restaurants in North America. The company is renowned for its wide variety of high-quality burgers, including its signature Bottomless Steak Fries®, served in a fun and family-friendly atmosphere. In addition to burgers, Red Robin offers salads, appetizers, entrees, desserts, signature beverages, and Donatos® pizza at select locations.
- Restaurant Revenue - Generates revenue from food and beverage sales at company-owned restaurants, which is the primary source of income.
- Franchise Revenue - Earns royalties and fees from franchised restaurants, contributing to the company's revenue stream.
- Other Revenue - Includes income from gift card breakage and other ancillary sources, adding to the overall revenue.
What went well
- Red Robin's Loyalty 2.0 program is exceeding expectations, driving increased return visits and reward redemption rates ahead of internal models, signaling strong customer engagement and potential for sustained traffic growth.
- The company is optimistic about significantly improving margins, through initiatives like enhancing labor productivity with the relaunch of hot schedules, reducing controllable expenses, achieving supply chain cost savings, and addressing underperforming restaurants that are currently reducing system margins by 215 basis points.
- Same-store sales are showing positive trends, with the first four weeks of the fourth quarter up 2%, excluding loyalty adjustments, indicating strengthening sales momentum.
What went wrong
- 1. Increased reliance on discounting is pressuring margins:* Red Robin has increased discount levels to around 4% of sales to drive traffic, which is impacting profitability.
- 2. A significant number of restaurants are unprofitable:* Approximately 70 restaurants are not generating positive restaurant-level profitability, causing a drag of approximately 215 basis points on total company restaurant-level operating profit.
- 3. Declining guest traffic in recent weeks:* In the first four weeks of Q4, guest traffic has been down approximately 4%, indicating challenges in attracting customers despite increased discounting efforts.
Q&A Summary
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Underperforming Units Impact
Q: How do the 70 underperforming units affect EBITDA?
A: The 70 underperforming restaurants are dragging down margins by 215 basis points and have collectively lost a little over $6 million on the income statement over the trailing 12 months. Management believes in these locations and is supporting them to execute turnaround plans, while keeping a close eye on their performance. -
Same-Store Sales Trends
Q: What are the recent same-store sales trends and traffic figures?
A: In the first four weeks of Q4, traffic has been down about 4%, but overall per-person average (PPA), including menu prices and discounts, is up about 6%, resulting in a net 2% increase in same-store sales. Management is optimistic about building momentum for the rest of the quarter. -
Margin Outlook and Improvement Levers
Q: What challenges and levers exist to improve margins into 2025?
A: Improving margins will focus on driving positive traffic to boost sales, enhancing labor productivity through the relaunch of hot schedules, and closely monitoring controllable expenses. Management has successfully reduced costs in areas like utilities and supply chain, even in an inflationary environment. They are also optimizing third-party business and being prudent with G&A expenses and marketing investments. Addressing the bottom 70 restaurants, which are pulling down margins by 215 basis points, is crucial for significant margin improvement. -
Discounting Levels vs. Pre-COVID
Q: How does current discounting compare to pre-COVID levels?
A: Prior to the North Star plan, in 2021-2022, discounts were around 4% of sales. The company had reduced discounting but has strategically increased it again to attract customers amid competitive pressures. Management believes that bringing people in will result in a great experience that fosters repeat business. -
Strengthening Sales Trends
Q: Are you seeing strengthening trends in sales similar to others in the industry?
A: Yes, the company is experiencing similar strengthening trends. Same-store sales are up 2% in the first four weeks of Q4, excluding loyalty adjustments. Management is optimistic about the trajectory for the rest of the quarter. -
Loyalty Program Impact
Q: How is the loyalty program affecting customer visits and marketing efficiency?
A: The loyalty program has been exceedingly successful, with return visits and reward redemptions exceeding internal expectations. Guests are using rewards with minimal breakage. The program allows for highly targeted messaging, making it more efficient than traditional media and improving marketing ROI. -
Operations Efficiency and Guest Satisfaction
Q: How are operations changes impacting efficiency and guest satisfaction?
A: Management is measuring efficiency by comparing like-for-like restaurants, focusing on labor performance, and sharing best practices. They are improving productivity, especially in high labor cost areas like the West Coast, while monitoring key metrics more closely than ever. To ensure guest satisfaction remains high, they utilize various feedback mechanisms like SMG surveys, Google reviews, Yelp reviews, and loyalty surveys. Despite achieving more efficient labor management, they have maintained high levels of guest satisfaction. -
Seasonality and Holiday Expectations
Q: What is the seasonality impact on Q4 and expectations for the holiday season?
A: Q4 is a backloaded quarter, with the majority of profitability coming in the Thanksgiving to New Year's window. While seasonality troughs in Q3, business picks up significantly in the last several weeks of the year. The late Thanksgiving this year is not expected to significantly shift business. Management is optimistic about the holiday season performance.
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Given that approximately 70 restaurants are not generating positive restaurant-level profitability and are dragging down total company restaurant-level operating profit by approximately 215 basis points, what specific criteria are you using to determine whether to continue supporting these locations or consider closing them, and what is the timeline for these decisions?
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Adjusted EBITDA decreased by $4.7 million in the third quarter of 2024 compared to last year, primarily due to lower guest counts, increased discounts, higher labor costs, and occupancy costs related to sale-leaseback transactions; what concrete steps are you taking to reverse this trend and improve profitability in the face of these headwinds?
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You mentioned that increased discounting through promotional offers is expected to have a net cost in the near term but believe it will help achieve your goal of returning traffic to positive growth in 2025; how do you balance this promotional strategy with maintaining healthy margins, and what gives you confidence that the increased traffic will offset the margin compression?
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With the recent amendments to your credit agreement that increase compliance leverage ratios and extend the revolver expansion, how concerned are you about your financial flexibility, and what steps are you taking to manage your debt levels and ensure sufficient liquidity moving forward?
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While your overall satisfaction (OSAT) scores have improved significantly and guest traffic has closed a 500 basis point gap, comparable restaurant revenue only increased 0.6%; given this modest sales growth, what are your plans to drive more substantial top-line improvements, and what key levers can you pull to accelerate revenue growth?
1. Q3 2024 Earnings Call
- Issued Period: Q3 2024
- Guided Period: FY 2024
- Guidance:
- Total Revenue: Approximately $1.25 billion.
- Restaurant-Level Operating Profit: At least 10.5%, inclusive of investments in the guest experience and rent expenses related to sale-leaseback transactions.
- Adjusted EBITDA: Between $35 million to $37.5 million.
- Note: Adjusted EBITDA guidance does not add back noncash stock-based compensation expenses, which are estimated to total approximately $7 million in 2024.
- Capital Expenditures: Approximately $25 million.
- Fourth Quarter Comparable Restaurant Sales:
- Traffic: Expected to decline approximately 4%.
- PPA (Per Person Average): Expected to increase approximately 6%.
- Deferred Loyalty Revenue: Expected to be a 1.5% headwind, with an anticipated $4.5 million reduction in loyalty revenue compared to Q4 2023.
- Impact of Fiscal Calendar Change:
- Fiscal year 2024 reverts to a 52-week year (compared to 53 weeks in 2023).
- This change will result in an approximate $25 million reduction in restaurant sales and a $3 million reduction in adjusted EBITDA compared to 2023.
2. Q2 2024 Earnings Call
- Issued Period: Q2 2024
- Guided Period: FY 2024
- Guidance:
- Adjusted EBITDA:
- Guidance of $40 million to $45 million for 2024.
- This does not add back noncash stock-based compensation expenses, which are estimated to total approximately $7 million in 2024.
- Capital Expenditures: Expected to be $25 million to $30 million in 2024.
- Comparable Restaurant Traffic:
- Q3 2024: Anticipated to decline approximately 5%.
- Q4 2024: Anticipated to decline 4% to 5%.
- Per Person Average (PPA):
- Q3 2024: Expected to increase approximately 5%.
- Q4 2024: Expected to increase 7% to 8%, driven by a September menu price increase.
- Selling Expenses:
- Expected to total approximately $38 million in 2024.
- Expected to decrease to approximately $30 million in 2025.
- General and Administrative (G&A) Expenses:
- Expected to be approximately $81 million in 2024, reduced from initial expectations due to lower incentive compensation expenses and cost-saving measures.
- Expected to run at approximately $85 million in 2025.
- Total Revenue: Updated guidance of approximately $1.25 billion for 2024.
- Restaurant-Level Operating Profit: Expected to be 11.0% to 11.5% of restaurant revenue in 2024, inclusive of investments in the guest experience and rent expenses related to sale-leaseback transactions.
- Fiscal Calendar Impact:
- Fiscal 2024 will revert to a 52-week year compared to 53 weeks in 2023.
- This is expected to result in a reduction of approximately $25 million in restaurant sales and $3 million in adjusted EBITDA compared to 2023.
- Credit Agreement Amendment:
- The revolving credit facility was expanded from $25 million to $40 million for the period from Q3 2024 through Q3 2025.
- Adjusted EBITDA:
3. Q1 2024 Earnings Call
- Issued Period: Q1 2024
- Guided Period: FY 2024
- Guidance:
- Total Revenue: $1.25 billion to $1.275 billion, including a low-single-digit percentage decline in comparable restaurant revenue.
- Restaurant-Level Operating Profit: 12.5% to 13.5%, inclusive of investments in the guest experience and rent expenses related to sale-leaseback transactions.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $60 million to $70 million.
- Capital Expenditures: $25 million to $35 million.
- Impact of 52-Week Fiscal Year: Reverting to a 52-week fiscal year in 2024 (compared to 53 weeks in 2023) is expected to result in an approximate $25 million reduction in restaurant sales and a $3 million reduction in adjusted EBITDA compared to 2023.
- Inflation Expectations: Inflation across the entire cost basket (commodities, wages, and operating expenses) is anticipated to be in the range of 3% to 4%.
- Cost Savings: Approximately $19 million of incremental cost savings expected in 2024, with $8 million from initiatives started in 2023 and $11 million from new initiatives in 2024.
4. Q4 2023 Earnings Call
- Issued Period: Q4 2023
- Guided Period: FY 2024
- Guidance:
- Total Revenue: $1.25 billion to $1.275 billion.
- Comparable Restaurant Revenue: Expected to decline by a low single-digit percentage.
- Restaurant-Level Operating Profit Margin: 12.5% to 13.5%, inclusive of investments in the guest experience and rent expenses related to sale-leaseback transactions.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $60 million to $70 million.
- Capital Expenditures: $25 million to $35 million.
- Inflation: Expected to normalize across the cost basket (commodities, wages, and operating expenses) in the range of 3% to 4%.
- Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) Expenses: Expected to remain relatively unchanged compared to 2023, with an incremental $3 million in selling expenses to support marketing efforts offset by reductions in general administrative expenses.
- Impact of Sale-Leaseback Transactions:
- Incremental rent expense: Approximately $4 million in 2024.
- Reduction in annualized interest expense: Approximately $5 million to $6 million due to debt reduction.
- Adverse Weather Impact: Incorporated into guidance, particularly affecting Q1 2024 results.
- Cost Savings: Targeted incremental cost savings of $19 million in 2024, including $8 million from initiatives started in 2023 and $11 million from new initiatives.
This table summarizes the issued and guided periods along with the exhaustive guidance for each earnings call.