Did Republic Services beat earnings in Q4 2025?

Yes, Republic Services beat Q4 2025 EPS estimates by 8% ($1.76 adjusted vs $1.63 consensus) through strong pricing and margin expansion. Revenue of $4.14B missed by 1.7% due to volume declines and a non-recurring environmental solutions comparison.

What is Republic Services' 2026 guidance?

RSG guided FY 2026 adjusted EPS of $7.20-$7.28 (up 3-4% YoY), revenue of $17.05-17.15B, and adjusted free cash flow of $2.52-2.56B. Management expects pricing in excess of cost inflation and ~$1B in acquisitions.

How did Republic Services stock react to Q4 2025 earnings?

RSG shares fell 1.3% during regular trading on February 17, 2026 to $221.13, but recovered in after-hours trading to $223.99 (+1.3% from close) as investors digested the EPS beat and 2026 guidance.

REPUBLIC SERVICES (RSG)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Republic Services Q4 2025: EPS Beats +8% as Pricing Offsets Volume Headwinds

February 17, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

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Republic Services delivered a mixed Q4 2025, beating adjusted EPS estimates by 8% while revenue came in slightly light. The waste management giant's pricing discipline and margin expansion more than offset cyclical volume headwinds, enabling the company to exceed its full-year 2025 guidance for both adjusted earnings and free cash flow.

Did Republic Services Beat Earnings?

EPS: Beat by 8.0% — Adjusted EPS of $1.76 vs. consensus of $1.63. This marks RSG's ninth consecutive quarterly EPS beat.

Revenue: Miss by 1.7% — Revenue of $4.14B vs. consensus of $4.21B, impacted by a tough comparison in environmental solutions (prior year included ~$50M from a non-recurring emergency response project).

Metric	Q4 2025 Actual	Consensus	Surprise
Revenue	$4.14B	$4.21B	-1.7%
Adjusted EPS	$1.76	$1.63	+8.0%
Adjusted EBITDA	$1.30B	—	—
Adj. EBITDA Margin	31.3%	—	+30bps YoY

Full-year 2025 results exceeded guidance across the board:

Adjusted EPS: $7.02 vs. guidance, +8.7% YoY
Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $2.43B, +11.5% YoY

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What Did Management Guide?

Republic Services provided FY 2026 guidance that implies continued profitable growth, albeit at a more moderate pace:

Guidance Bridge

Metric	FY 2025 Actual	FY 2026 Guidance	Implied Growth
Revenue	$16.59B	$17.05B - $17.15B	+2.8% to +3.4%
Adjusted EPS	$7.02	$7.20 - $7.28	+2.6% to +3.7%
Adjusted EBITDA	$5.31B	$5.48B - $5.53B	+3.1% to +4.0%
Adjusted FCF	$2.43B	$2.52B - $2.56B	+3.7% to +5.3%

Key guidance assumptions:

Average yield growth of 3.2-3.7% on total revenue (4.0-4.5% on related business)
Volume decline of approximately 1%
~$1B investment in acquisitions (already $400M deployed as of Feb 17)
Property and equipment spending of $1.96B - $2.00B

CEO Jon Vander Ark commented: "We expect to deliver another year of profitable growth in 2026 in a macro environment that remains dynamic. Our outlook is supported by continued pricing in excess of cost inflation, steady productivity gains from our digital tools, and ongoing investments in strategic acquisitions."

What Changed From Last Quarter?

Positives:

Margin expansion continues: Adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.3% expanded 30bps YoY in Q4 and 90bps for full-year 2025
Cash flow acceleration: Operating cash flow grew 9.2% to $4.30B; adjusted FCF up 11.5% to $2.43B
RNG progress: Nine renewable natural gas projects completed in 2025, three in Q4 alone
Polymer Center launch: Indianapolis facility commenced operations

Headwinds:

Volume pressure persists: Total volume declined 1.0% in Q4, with large-container volume down 3.8%
Environmental solutions drag: Segment revenue down 2.0% organically due to $50M non-recurring project in prior year
Recycled commodity prices: Average price of $112/ton, down $41 YoY (-27%)
Labor disruption impact: $56M total cost in FY 2025, including $40M in cost of operations

How Did the Stock React?

RSG shares closed down 1.3% at $221.13 on February 17, but rebounded in after-hours trading to $223.99 (+1.3% from close). The mixed reaction reflects investors weighing the EPS beat against the revenue miss and conservative 2026 guidance.

Metric	Value
Close (Feb 17)	$221.13
After-Hours	$223.99 (+1.3%)
52-Week High	$258.75
52-Week Low	$201.42
Market Cap	$69.1B
YTD Performance	+3.0%

The stock has maintained a consistent beat-and-raise track record, with nine consecutive EPS beats. However, shares trade 14% below the 52-week high, reflecting broader concerns about industrial cyclicality and volume trends.

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Segment Performance

Republic Services operates three reportable segments, with Recycling & Waste representing the core business:

Segment	Q4 2025 Revenue	Adj. EBITDA Margin	Notes
Recycling & Waste	$3.71B	32.6%	Core business, +2.9% organic
Environmental Solutions	$422M	20.1%	-2.0% organic (tough comp)
Total	$4.14B	31.3%

Revenue by Line of Business (Q4 2025):

Line of Business	Revenue	% of Total
Small-Container Collection	$1.29B	31.1%
Large-Container Collection	$768M	18.6%
Residential Collection	$761M	18.4%
Landfill (net)	$467M	11.3%
Environmental Solutions	$422M	10.2%
Transfer (net)	$214M	5.2%
Recycling & Other	$200M	4.8%

Capital Allocation

Republic Services returned $1.6B to shareholders in 2025 while investing $1.1B in acquisitions:

Use of Cash (FY 2025)	Amount
Operating Cash Flow	$4.30B
Capital Expenditure	$(1.89B)
Acquisitions	$(1.1B)
Dividends	$(738M)
Share Repurchases	$(854M)

Q4 2025 repurchase activity: 1.3 million shares at $270M ($215.57/share weighted average). Remaining authorization: ~$1.7B under October 2023 program.

Quarterly dividend: $0.625/share (paid April 15 to shareholders of record April 2)

Key Risks and Considerations

Management flagged several factors that could impact 2026 performance:

Cyclical volume exposure: Large-container and C&D volumes remain pressured (-3.8% and -14.8% in Q4, respectively)
Recycled commodity volatility: Prices down 27% YoY to $112/ton; full-year average of $135/ton
Trade policy uncertainty: Forward-looking statements cite international trade restrictions and tariffs as risk factors
Integration execution: $1B acquisition target requires successful integration
Labor relations: Isolated market disruptions cost $56M in 2025

Forward Catalysts

Q1 2026 earnings: Expected late April 2026
Acquisition pipeline: Management expects ~$1B deployment; already $400M invested YTD
RNG expansion: Continued commissioning of renewable natural gas projects
Digital productivity: Ongoing rollout driving SG&A leverage (10.6% of revenue vs. 11.0% prior year)

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The Bottom Line

Republic Services delivered on what matters most — earnings and free cash flow — despite a challenging volume environment. The 8% EPS beat and 11.5% FCF growth demonstrate the company's pricing discipline and operational efficiency. While 2026 guidance implies decelerating growth (3% EPS vs. 9% in 2025), the outlook appears conservative and could prove beatable if volumes stabilize. The stock's muted reaction suggests investors are taking a wait-and-see approach on the macro outlook.

Note: Q4 2025 earnings call transcript not yet available at time of publication.

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