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SAIA INC (SAIA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue was $0.840B and adjusted diluted EPS was $2.81; both modestly above S&P Global consensus, while GAAP EPS was $3.22 due to a net $14.5M real estate gain (+$0.41 EPS) . Revenue and EPS beat consensus: revenue +$10.7M (+1.3%) and EPS +$0.25 (+9.9%)*.
  • Operating ratio was 85.9% (adjusted 87.6%), up 250 bps YoY on an adjusted basis amid higher depreciation and self-insurance costs; sequential adjusted OR improved 20 bps vs Q2, reflecting cost control and network optimization .
  • Management implemented a 5.9% general rate increase and a 3% wage increase effective Oct 1, and guided Q4 OR to deteriorate sequentially by 300–400 bps on seasonality and softer October trends, a near-term margin headwind and potential stock catalyst .
  • 2025 net capex guidance was lowered to $550–$600M from $600–$650M; early 2026 view is $400–$500M, signaling a more moderate investment phase and improved prospective free cash flow .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Sequential margin discipline: adjusted OR improved 20 bps QoQ to 87.6% despite cost headwinds; adjusted cost per shipment fell 0.7% QoQ, reflecting network optimization and cost control .
  • Network ramp progressing: 39 terminals opened since 2022 improved OR by >100 bps QoQ to sub-95, with sequential shipment growth in ramping facilities (+4.2%) and legacy (+3.0%) .
  • Customer metrics: contractual renewals averaged 5.1%; cargo claims ratio was 0.54%, marking a fourth consecutive quarter below 0.6%, reinforcing quality of service .

Selected quote:

  • “We saw continued benefits from our ongoing investments in technology and network optimization efforts… aligning with our long term strategy of getting closer to the customer.”

What Went Wrong

  • Adjusted profitability compressed YoY: adjusted operating income declined 16.8% YoY to $104.1M and adjusted OR rose to 87.6% from 85.1% on higher depreciation and self-insurance costs .
  • Volume softness: shipments per workday fell 1.9% and tonnage per workday fell 1.5% YoY; October trends started weaker than expected (shipments ~-3.5%, tonnage ~-4%) .
  • Mix and regional headwinds: Southern California shipments down ~18% YoY pressured yield; higher fixed costs and holiday seasonality expected to drive Q4 OR deterioration of 300–400 bps .

Financial Results

GAAP metrics by quarter

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$842.1 $787.6 $817.1 $839.6
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$125.2 $70.2 $99.4 $118.6
Operating Ratio (%)85.1% 91.1% 87.8% 85.9%
Diluted EPS ($)$3.46 $1.86 $2.67 $3.22

Q3 2025 non-GAAP adjustment impact

ItemQ3 2025 GAAPAdjustment (Real Estate Gain/Impairment)Q3 2025 Adjusted
Operating Expenses ($USD Thousands)$721,034 +$14,503 $735,537
Operating Income ($USD Thousands)$118,610 -$14,503 $104,107
Operating Ratio (%)85.9% +1.7% 87.6%
Diluted EPS ($)$3.22 -$0.41 $2.81
Cost per Shipment ($)$309.06 +$6.22 $315.28

LTL Operating Statistics (trend)

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Shipments per workday (000s)34.44 35.33 36.45
Tonnage per workday (000s tons)24.52 24.63 24.70
Revenue per cwt ex fuel ($)$21.12 $21.42 $21.72
Revenue per shipment ex fuel ($)$300.76 $298.71 $294.35
Pounds per shipment1,424 1,394 1,355
Length of haul (miles)905 893 894
Fuel surcharge revenue (% of total)——15.2% (vs 14.8% LY)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Capex ($USD Millions)FY 2025$600–$650 $550–$600 Lowered
Capex ($USD Millions)FY 2026 (early view)N/A$400–$500 New (initial)
Operating Ratio (seq change)Q4 2025 vs Q3 2025Typical -250 to -300 bps seasonality -300 to -400 bps expected Widened deterioration
General Rate IncreaseEffective Oct 1, 2025N/A+5.9% Implemented
Wage IncreaseEffective Oct 1, 2025N/A+3% across employees Implemented

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Trend
Network optimization & “handles”Unusually harsh winter weather; macro uncertainty; nationwide footprint aided service “Improvements in operational efficiencies” through Q2 Continued AI-driven network redesign; past “peak handles”; cost per shipment down QoQ Improving execution; early innings of monetization
Pricing disciplineYield ex fuel -5.1% YoY; mix management focus Yield ex fuel -1.2%; rev/shipment ex fuel +2.7% GRI +5.9%; underlying pricing “rational”; some mix headwinds (1–2 day lanes, SoCal) Firming price actions; mix dilutive near term
Volume and seasonalityShipments +4.6% YoY; March flat vs Feb Shipments/workday -2.8% YoY; tonnage +1.1% Shipments/workday -1.9% YoY; Oct tracking softer (-3.5% shipments) Soft demand; seasonal pressure
Cost and self-insuranceDepreciation up with network investments Depreciation and insurance rising Self-insurance up 22.5% YoY; depreciation +17.2% YoY; cost controls offset Cost inflation; management offsetting
Technology/AI——AI-driven optimization tools used across linehaul/city ops/staffing Ongoing investment; efficiency gains
Capex trajectory2025 guide ~$650M 2025 guide $600–$650M 2025 guide $550–$600M; 2026 $400–$500M Moderating spend; FCF potential

Management Commentary

  • Strategic message: Saia’s national footprint and technology-driven network optimization are improving efficiency and positioning the company to capture share-of-wallet with existing and new customers despite a muted LTL market .
  • Important quotes:
    • “Our expanded footprint… provides opportunities to service customers in both our legacy and ramping markets… Adjusting for the one-time real estate transactions, our adjusted operating ratio was 87.6.”
    • “We implemented a general rate increase on October 1 at a rate of 5.9%… Ensuring that we drive returns on our substantial network and service investments remains a focus.”
    • “October to date is a little bit softer than where we expect it to be… a fair range is probably in the 300 to 400 basis point [OR] degradation.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Near-term margin guide: Q4 OR expected to deteriorate 300–400 bps sequentially on seasonality and softer October, with wage and rate actions net neutral in guidance .
  • Pricing/yield: Underlying pricing rational; like-for-like contract renewals netted just over +4% rev/bill; mix shifts (short-haul lanes, regional softness) pressure reported yield .
  • Capex outlook: 2026 capex early view $400–$500M, continued moderation from 2024/2025 as network build matures .
  • Optimization progress: Past “peak handles”; continued deployment of AI optimization tools across linehaul and city ops; objective is fewer touches and more directs as inbound/outbound balance improves .
  • Service and claims: Cargo claims ratio 0.54%; management views pricing alignment as key lever alongside on-time performance .

Estimates Context

MetricConsensus EstimateActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)828.97*839.64 +10.67*
Primary EPS ($)2.556*2.81 (Adjusted) +0.254*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)156.65*182.65*+25.99*
Target Price (USD)323.37*——

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Note: EPS comparison uses adjusted diluted EPS for apples-to-apples vs consensus normalization .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Modest beat on revenue and adjusted EPS; however, YoY adjusted margin compression persists due to higher depreciation and self-insurance costs—expect near-term volatility as Q4 seasonality and October softness weigh on OR .
  • Network ramp continues to improve unit economics; as ramping terminals mature and inbound/outbound balance improves, incremental margins should be attractive even on modest volume recovery .
  • Pricing actions (GRI +5.9%) and >4% like-for-like renewals signal discipline; monitor mix (short-haul lanes, regional softness) that can dilute reported yield near term .
  • Capex is moderating (2025 down; 2026 early view $400–$500M), increasing the likelihood of improved free cash flow and potential for capital return once macro improves .
  • Watch for sequential OR degradation (300–400 bps) and holiday-related inefficiencies; a better-than-feared exit rate in November/December could be a positive trading catalyst .
  • Tactical: Favor buying on weakness if October softness proves transitory and Q4 OR tracks toward the low end of the deterioration range; medium term thesis rests on monetizing the now-national footprint with disciplined pricing and AI-enabled execution .

Appendix: Additional Operating Data

  • Q3 operating detail: LTL shipments/workday -1.9% YoY; tonnage/workday -1.5% YoY; revenue/cwt ex fuel -0.1% YoY; revenue/shipment ex fuel +0.3% YoY .
  • Monthly cadence (Q3 and October-to-date): July shipments -1.2%, tonnage +0.9%; August shipments -2.2%, tonnage -2.2%; September shipments -2.5%, tonnage -3.3%; October-to-date shipments ~-3.5%, tonnage ~-4% .
  • Balance sheet: Cash $35.5M; total debt $219.2M at Sept 30, 2025 .