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SAIA INC (SAIA)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue rose 5% YoY to $789.0M, a record Q4, but operating ratio (OR) deteriorated to 87.1% and diluted EPS fell to $2.84, reflecting mix, start-up and inflationary cost headwinds despite solid volume growth .
  • Mix optimization progressed: LTL shipments/workday +4.5% and tonnage/workday +8.3%, while revenue per shipment ex-fuel +1.3% and revenue/cwt ex-fuel -2.3% given heavier freight; fuel surcharge revenue fell to 14.1% of revenue (17% prior year) .
  • Management set 2025 framework: OR improvement targeted at +80–100 bps, capex “over $700M,” and 5–6 terminal openings; Q1 OR expected to deteriorate 30–50 bps sequentially given weather, depreciation step-up and immature sites .
  • Early 1Q25 operating update: January shipments +6.8% and tonnage +13.8%; February shipments +4.2% and tonnage +12.2% (weight/shipment up mid-single digits), underpinning continued network maturation .
  • S&P Global Wall Street consensus (revenue/EPS) was unavailable due to data limits; results vs estimates cannot be assessed this quarter (see Estimates Context). Values would be pulled from S&P Global when available.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Network expansion and volume: 21 new terminals opened in 2024 (214 total) with strong customer acceptance; 3/4 of January shipment growth came from 2024 openings, evidencing network maturation and share gains .
  • Mix optimization improving revenue per shipment: Revenue per shipment ex-fuel +1.3% YoY and +2% sequentially; contract renewals averaged 7.9%; management emphasized closing the “revenue per bill” gap with national peers .
  • Capital deployment supporting growth: >$1.0B 2024 capex (incl. $235.7M for Yellow auction properties); company ended 2024 with 214 facilities enabling direct 48‑state service, positioning for operating leverage as sites mature .

What Went Wrong

  • Margin pressure: OR worsened to 87.1% from 85.0% YoY and cost per shipment increased 1.4% on wage inflation, headcount growth and new-terminal drag; depreciation +18.3% YoY; claims/insurance +16.6% .
  • Pricing optics in reported yield: Yield ex-fuel -2.3% YoY due to heavier shipments (weight/shipment +3.7%); fuel surcharge revenue mix fell to 14.1% from 17% YoY, pressuring reported yield despite better revenue per shipment ex-fuel .
  • Balance sheet shift: Year-end cash fell to $19.5M from $296.2M and total debt rose to $200.3M, reflecting record capex; management also flagged ~+$1.00 EPS interest headwind for 2025 as leverage normalizes .

Financial Results

Income Statement and Profitability – Quarterly Trend (oldest → newest)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$823.244 $842.103 $788.952
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$137.593 $125.171 $101.484
Operating Ratio (%)83.3% 85.1% 87.1%
Diluted EPS ($)$3.83 $3.46 $2.84

Year-over-Year – Q4 detail

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$751.132 $788.952
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$112.663 $101.484
Operating Ratio (%)85.0% 87.1%
Diluted EPS ($)$3.33 $2.84

LTL Operating KPIs – Quarterly Trend (oldest → newest)

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Workdays (days)64 64 62
LTL Shipments per Workday (000)36.36 37.17 35.06
LTL Tonnage per Workday24.36 25.08 23.89
Revenue per cwt ex-fuel ($)$21.69 $21.75 $21.96
Revenue per Shipment ex-fuel ($)$290.72 $293.39 $299.17
Pounds per Shipment1,340 1,349 1,362
Length of Haul (miles)888 890 898
Fuel Surcharge Revenue (% sales)—14.8% 14.1%

Additional Q4 notes

  • Claims ratio: 0.59% (Q4); full-year 0.58% .
  • Purchased transportation: 7.4% of revenue; PT miles 13.1% of total linehaul miles .

Segment breakdown

  • Saia reports as an integrated LTL-centric operation; no separate segment revenue table is provided in the Q4 materials .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Operating Ratio (improvement)FY 2025Not previously provided+80–100 bps OR improvementNew framework
OR sequential move vs Q4Q1 2025Not previously providedOR to deteriorate 30–50 bps sequentially (weather, depreciation, immature sites)New
Capital Expenditures ($)FY 2025Not previously provided>$700MNew
Terminals to Open (#)FY 2025Not previously provided5–6New
Interest expense headwind (EPS)FY 2025Not previously provided≈$1 EPS headwind from interestNew

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Pricing/GRI and Mix OptimizationYield ex-fuel +8.7% YoY; retail/light freight post-2023 disruption pressured mix; focus on service and price GRI 7.9% implemented late Oct; renewals ~7.9%; continued mix headwinds; focus on revenue per bill Renewals ~7.9%; revenue/ship ex-fuel +1.3% YoY and +2% seq.; yield ex-fuel -2.3% on heavier weight; GRI acceptance “good” Improving mix, heavier shipments; pricing discipline maintained
Network Expansion & Capex$1B 2024 capex outlook; multiple openings/relocations 11 openings in Q3; 21 for 2024 planned; national coverage achieved 21 openings completed; 214 terminals; 2025 capex >$700M, 5–6 opens Build complete → maturation phase
Margin Trajectory/OROR 83.3% (Q2) OR 85.1% (Q3) with start-up/claims costs OR 87.1% (Q4); guide FY25 +80–100 bps; Q1 -30–50 bps seq. Near-term pressure; multi‑year improvement expected
Volume TrendsShipments/workday +18.1% YoY; tonnage/workday +9.7% Shipments/workday +8.5% YoY; tonnage/workday +7.7% Q4 shipments/workday +4.5% YoY; tonnage/workday +8.3%; Jan/Feb trends strong Sustained share gains, aided by new terminals
Fuel/Claims/Expenses—Fuel prices -13% YoY; claims up; depreciation up ~20% Fuel prices -17% YoY; claims/insurance +16.6%; depreciation +18.3% Cost headwinds persist
Purchased Transportation—PT 14.2% of linehaul miles PT 13.1% of linehaul miles; 7.4% of revenue Slightly lower reliance

Management Commentary

  • “We opened 21 terminals in 2024… ending the year with 214 terminals and a national footprint, enabling direct service to the 48 contiguous states.” – CEO Fritz Holzgrefe .
  • “The sequential improvement [in revenue per shipment] represents the partial quarter impact of the GRI as well as our ongoing pricing and mix efforts.” – CFO Matt Batteh .
  • “We anticipate capital expenditures for 2025 to be in excess of $700 million… including relocations, upgrades and openings of up to 5 to 6 facilities.” – CEO Fritz Holzgrefe .
  • “We’re anchored on the full year… thinking in that 80 to 100 basis point range of [OR] improvement.” – CFO Matt Batteh .
  • “Our singular objective is to get the OR in this business into the 70s… PT is an important part of our portfolio.” – CEO Fritz Holzgrefe .

Q&A Highlights

  • Near-term OR cadence: Q1 OR expected 30–50 bps worse sequentially (weather, depreciation timing, immature sites) but FY25 OR improvement still +80–100 bps; upside if macro improves .
  • January/Feb momentum: January shipments +~6.5%/tonnage +~13.5% on call; press release later reported January +6.8%/+13.8% and February +4.2%/+12.2%; majority of growth from 2024 openings .
  • Pricing discipline/GRI: 7.9% GRI acceptance “good”; revenue per shipment ex-fuel improving sequentially; willing to let lower-priced business walk .
  • Cost and claims: Claims ratio 0.59% in Q4; depreciation stepped up on on-time OEM deliveries; purchased transportation down to 7.4% of revenue .
  • 2025 plan: >$700M capex, 5–6 openings (mostly smaller “saturation” sites), continued relocations/expansions (e.g., Harrisburg, Dallas) .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus (revenue and EPS) could not be retrieved due to a daily request limit; as a result, we cannot present beat/miss vs estimates this quarter. We will update with S&P Global Wall Street consensus when access is restored. Values would be retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Network build completed; the story transitions to maturation and operating leverage as new terminals scale—expect multi‑year OR improvement (guide +80–100 bps in 2025) if mix discipline continues .
  • Near-term margin headwinds (weather, depreciation, immature sites) and claims/insurance expense remain watch items; sequential Q1 OR decline expected (30–50 bps) before improvement resumes into Q2–Q4 .
  • Mix/pricing execution is working (revenue/ship ex-fuel +2% sequential); focus on closing the “revenue per bill” gap with nationals should support yields as heavier shipments persist .
  • Volume trajectory is healthy (Jan/Feb shipments +5–7%, tonnage +12–14% YoY), with ~75% of January growth from 2024 openings, suggesting continued share capture and terminal maturation .
  • Capital intensity normalizes: 2025 capex >$700M after $1.04B in 2024; interest expense now a modest EPS headwind (~$1) as leverage supports the footprint—monitor free cash flow inflection as capex moderates .
  • Strategic aim remains OR in the 70s; purchased transportation utilized opportunistically to lower linehaul cost without sacrificing service .
  • Potential catalysts: sustained revenue-per-shipment gains, visible OR improvement starting Q2, and continued monthly LTL updates indicating maturation progress .

Appendix: Additional Operating Data Press Releases (Q4 context and 1Q25 update)

  • Q4-to-date operating data (Oct/Nov 2024): Shipments/workday +3.5% QTD; tonnage/workday +6.4%; weight/shipment +2.8% .
  • 1Q25 operating data (Jan/Feb 2025): January shipments +6.8%/tonnage +13.8%; February shipments +4.2%/tonnage +12.2%; QTD shipments +5.5%/tonnage +13.0%; weight/shipment +7.1% QTD .