SI
StandardAero, Inc. (SARO)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 delivered strong top-line and margin expansion: revenue rose 21.8% year over year to $1.41B and adjusted EBITDA increased 37.2% to $186.2M; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 150 bps to 13.2% .
- Reported GAAP net loss of $14.1M (EPS -$0.04) was driven by IPO/refi, stock comp catch-up, LEAP/CFM ramp and integration costs; CFO aggregated ~$29M refi, ~$26M IPO-related, and ~$18M LEAP/CFM/ATI expenses impacting the quarter .
- 2025 guidance initiated: revenue $5.80–$5.95B, adjusted EBITDA $770–$790M, FCF $155–$175M, with ES margin ~13% and CRS ~27%; end-market growth assumptions remain robust (commercial aero low double-digit to mid-teens) .
- Balance sheet transformed post-IPO/refi: net debt/EBITDA at 3.1x and >$130M annual cash interest savings expected, a key earnings and cash flow catalyst for 2025 .
- Consensus estimates (S&P Global) were unavailable at time of request; beat/miss versus Street cannot be assessed for Q4 2024 (see Estimates Context).
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Commercial aerospace strength: commercial aero revenue +33% YoY in Q4; ES margins supported by favorable mix (higher labor content, lower pass-through material), accelerating EBITDA growth .
- Strategic execution milestones: LEAP test cell correlations (1A/1B), first PRSV induction, nine LEAP customer agreements totaling >$1B future revenue; CAAC LEAP authorization broadens addressable market .
- Deleveraging and refinancing: IPO and new facilities cut interest rates by 125–150 bps, positioning for >$130M annual interest savings and multi-notch ratings upgrades, improving 2025 cash generation .
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What Went Wrong
- GAAP earnings burdened by non-recurring costs and legacy leverage: Q4 net loss -$14.1M despite strong operating performance; IPO/refi and stock comp catch-up weighed on reported EPS .
- Military/helicopter headwinds: AE1107 V-22 Osprey grounding earlier in 2024 reduced volumes, partially offset by ATI acquisition contribution; military/helicopter up 9% in Q4 off ATI but still mixed .
- LEAP/CFM ramp dilutes ES margins near term: CFO flagged low single-digit margins on ramp programs as a temporary offset to otherwise upward ES margin momentum in 2025 .
Financial Results
Segment performance (quarterly):
KPIs and non-GAAP bridges:
Note: CFO also described IPO/refinancing and LEAP/CFM/ATI integration/start-up items that burdened GAAP results and cash flows in Q4/FY (aggregated ~$29M refi, ~$26–27M IPO, ~$18M program/ATI costs) .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Note: Q2 2024 transcript not available in SEC document set; “Unavailable” indicates lack of public source.
Management Commentary
- “We achieved significant revenue and earnings growth for the Fourth Quarter 2024 driven by demand across all our end markets and strong execution... commercial aerospace market growing 33% during the Fourth Quarter 2024... Adjusted EBITDA growth... favorable mix and productivity improvements.” — Russell Ford, CEO .
- “We industrialized our state-of-the-art LEAP MRO line... completed correlation for LEAP-1A after LEAP-1B... inducted our first LEAP engines... signed agreements with 9 customers representing future revenue of over $1 billion... received CAAC authorization.” — Russell Ford .
- “Adjusted EBITDA increased to $186.2 million... net loss in Q4 of $14.1 million primarily due to nonrecurring costs: ~$29M refinancing, ~$26M IPO-related (stock comp catch-up), ~$18M LEAP/CFM/ATI costs.” — Daniel Satterfield, CFO .
- “Post-IPO refinancing... new term loan (SOFR+2.25) and revolver (SOFR+2.00)... expect >$130 million annual interest savings... delevered to 3.1x, multi-notch upgrades.” — Daniel Satterfield .
Q&A Highlights
- Commercial aero demand drivers: CF34, turboprops, CFM56 largest growth in 2025; LEAP early but pipeline strong; CRS demand robust alongside ES .
- Working capital and FCF: WC ~25% of revenue structurally; incremental build front-loaded for LEAP/CFM56; free cash conversion improves significantly in 2025 with lower interest and fewer one-time outflows .
- LEAP contracts and pipeline: Nine customers signed; airlines locking long-term slots; maintenance moving earlier with lighter CTEM events; global reach beyond North America .
- CFM56 turnaround times: Declining toward 2019 norms; enhanced by USM and repair development to bypass sole-sourced bottlenecks .
- Margin dilution: 2025 headwinds mainly from low margins on ramping LEAP/CFM56; excluding these, ES margins show basis-point growth .
- Tariffs: Historically minimal due to USMCA duty-free treatment; proactive monitoring and compliance readiness .
Estimates Context
- Consensus estimates from S&P Global for Q4 2024 were unavailable at the time of request due to data access limits; as a result, beat/miss versus Street cannot be determined for revenue/EPS/EBITDA.
- Given the strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth and the GAAP loss driven by discrete items, we would expect analysts to focus on non-GAAP margins and 2025 guidance; however, specific consensus revisions cannot be quantified here.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Revenue growth and margin expansion momentum: Q4 revenue +21.8% YoY to $1.41B; adjusted EBITDA +37.2% to $186.2M with 150 bps margin expansion, driven by favorable mix and CRS accretion .
- Near-term GAAP noise vs. improving run-rate: Q4 GAAP loss reflects IPO/refi, stock comp catch-up and LEAP/CFM ramp; >$130M annual interest savings and lower one-time cash outflows set the stage for 2025 cash and earnings improvement .
- Growth vectors validated: CFM56 to be largest 2025 growth platform; LEAP ramp de-risked by nine long-term customer agreements and CAAC authorization; CF34 license expansion adds >$10M incremental EBITDA annually from 2025 .
- Balance sheet de-risking: Net debt/EBITDA down to 3.1x and multi-notch ratings upgrades enhance strategic flexibility for organic builds and accretive CRS-led M&A .
- CRS in-sourcing strategy drives enterprise margins: Higher CRS margins (26.6% Q4) and repair in-sourcing both lift consolidated profitability and reduce supply chain friction .
- End-market backdrop remains robust: Commercial aero growth strong (Q4 +33%); business aviation steady; military recovering from V-22 grounding with ATI providing complementary exposure .
- Trading implications: Focus on execution across LEAP/CFM56 ramps and FCF inflection in 2025; updates on contract wins and turn times are likely catalysts; monitor tariff policy developments though impact historically limited .