Sign in

    Scansource Inc (SCSC)

    SCSC Q3 2025: Q4 set for high-single-digit growth toward $3B

    Reported on May 8, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$36.12Last close (May 7, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$36.96Open (May 8, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.84(+2.33%)
    • Q4 guidance and sequential momentum: Executives highlighted a return to historical sequential growth in Q4—with improved early quarter results (e.g., from April) positioning the company for high single-digit sequential improvement to reach the $3 billion guidance target.
    • Robust capital allocation strategy: The management’s dual focus on $200 million new share repurchase authorization and strategic, accretive acquisitions—backed by a current net debt leverage of 0—supports both organic and inorganic growth while preserving balance sheet discipline.
    • Enhanced supplier and channel growth strategy: The addition of 9 new suppliers and integration into the value-added Intelisys channel, evidenced by already landed deals and double-digit growth in the CX segment, positions the company to capitalize on emerging and higher-margin technology opportunities.
    • Brazil demand weakness: Concerns arise from Brazil’s macroeconomic headwinds, FX impacts, and the netting down of revenue, all of which could continue to pressure performance despite it representing less than 10% of total revenue.
    • Free cash flow uncertainty: The potential impact of late-quarter sales timing on accounts receivable may lead to a free cash flow outflow, indicating less favorable cash generation guidance for Q4.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Net Sales

    –6.3% (from $752.60M to $704.85M)

    A decline in Net Sales suggests a potential softness in market demand or pricing pressures compared to the previous year. This contraction in revenue aligns with external challenges and possibly a shift in customer behavior impacting sales, as reflected in Q3 figures.

    Gross Profit

    +6% (from $94.48M to $100.20M)

    An increase in Gross Profit despite lower sales indicates improved product mix or cost efficiencies. These improvements may stem from tighter control over costs and possibly higher margins on recurring revenue items compared to the previous period.

    Operating Income

    +27% (from $17.54M to $22.34M)

    The significant increase in Operating Income suggests that the company managed to leverage fixed cost structures effectively. Enhanced operational efficiencies and benefits from strategic cost management likely contributed to the improved profitability relative to Q3 2024.

    Net Income

    +36% (from $12.81M to $17.43M)

    A robust rise in Net Income reflects the cumulative effect of improved margins and cost management. This upward trend may also result from reduced financing costs and better overall operational execution compared to the previous period.

    Cost of Goods Sold

    –8% (from $658.12M to $604.65M)

    The decline in COGS aligns with both the reduction in sales and enhanced cost-control initiatives. Lower production costs or improved supply chain efficiency likely contributed, indicating the company’s successful efforts to reduce direct costs relative to Q3 2024.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Net Sales

    FY 2025

    $3.1B–$3.5B

    no guidance provided

    no current guidance

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2025

    $140M–$160M

    no guidance provided

    no current guidance

    Free Cash Flow

    FY 2025

    at least $70M

    no guidance provided

    no current guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Guidance

    In Q1, guidance was set with expectations of a softer first half due to election‐related uncertainty and then stronger growth later. In Q2, full‐year guidance was reconfirmed with conservative revenue and EBITDA ranges despite a soft Q2 demand.

    In Q3, management updated guidance for Q4 with a revenue target of $3 billion for FY and expects sequential growth to return to historical averages.

    Improved optimism: Transitioning from cautious outlooks to a more positive and sequentially improving guidance.

    Sequential Growth Momentum

    Q1 projected flat to minimal growth with expectations for improvement in the second half ; Q2 reported a 4% sequential decline amid soft demand, noting large deals were challenging.

    Q3 expects a high single-digit sequential improvement, partly driven by the pickup in large deals.

    Upward shift: From declining or flat momentum to anticipated strong sequential improvement.

    Capital Allocation

    Q1 and Q2 emphasized a balanced approach with strong cash positions, targeting 1–2x leverage and disciplined capital allocation. Q4 2024 noted strong cash levels with ongoing share buybacks.

    Q3 maintained a balanced approach with active capital allocation to both strategic acquisitions and share repurchases; currently at 0 leverage with strong free cash flow.

    Consistent and healthy: Continued focus on maintaining a robust balance sheet with disciplined capital management.

    Strategic Acquisitions

    Q1 and Q2 highlighted an active pipeline with recent completions that supported recurring revenue growth ; Q4 2024 also mentioned pursuing acquisitions as part of their strategy.

    Q3 elevated strategic acquisitions as a higher capital priority, citing successful deals (e.g., Advantix and Resourcive) that were accretive to EPS and ROIC.

    Increasing emphasis: A growing priority on acquisitions to drive long-term growth.

    Share Repurchase Programs

    Q1 reported $28 million and Q2 reported $24 million in repurchases; Q4 2024 discussed ongoing share buybacks.

    In Q3, a new $200 million share repurchase authorization was announced along with $29 million already repurchased.

    Strengthened commitment: Enhanced share repurchase activity supports shareholder returns.

    Channel, Supplier, and Partner Strategy Transformation

    Q1 described a hybrid distribution model and partner segmentation. Q2 introduced a new Channel Exchange platform and a tailored partner segmentation strategy under new leadership. Q4 2024 reinforced hybrid distribution and segmentation initiatives.

    Q3 expanded on this transformation by emphasizing the Channel Exchange tool, launching an AI master class for partners, and recruiting new suppliers (notably in the AI area), thereby deepening the channel education and technology integration.

    Expanded and integrated: Increasing focus on technology-driven partner education and innovative channel initiatives.

    Demand Uncertainty and Revenue Forecasting Challenges

    Q1 acknowledged a soft demand environment influenced by political uncertainty with conservative projections. Q2 detailed a prolonged soft demand with a 4% sequential decline and challenges forecasting due to the lack of backlog.

    Q3 discussed specific challenges in Brazil (including FX headwinds and timing issues affecting free cash flow), while still expecting sequential improvement in Q4.

    Persistent but moderating: Ongoing uncertainties are being managed, with a slight improvement in outlook compared to the pronounced challenges seen in Q2.

    International Market and FX Risks

    Q1 cited Brazil’s underperformance due to FX risks and a strong U.S. dollar environment. Q2 noted FX headwinds leading to a 16% year-over-year decline in net sales in the Brazil market.

    Q3 continued to address Brazil’s challenges—highlighting tariff concerns, FX impacts, and supplier transitions—though Brazil still represents less than 10% of total revenue.

    Steady caution: FX and international market risks remain a consistent concern with no major change in sentiment.

    Cost Optimization and Operational Efficiency Initiatives

    Q1 mentioned SG&A adjustments and efficiency improvements as part of a resource review yielding savings. Q2 discussed improving working capital efficiency and maintaining a strong cash culture.

    Q3 did not include any specific mention of cost optimization or operational efficiency initiatives.

    Reduced emphasis: Cost-related measures appear less highlighted in Q3, possibly reflecting earlier implementation or shifting focus.

    Emerging Technology and Innovation Investments

    Q1 focused on AI’s potential (e.g., CCaaS) as a growth driver. Q2 noted growth in barcode mobility and physical security along with mentions of AI, though Private 5G was not specifically addressed. Q4 2024 discussed investments in AI, private 5G, and physical security alongside connectivity solutions.

    Q3 offered a comprehensive update on emerging technologies—including an AI master class, onboarding new AI-focused suppliers, Advantix’s smart SIM solution for private 5G/mobility, and growth in barcode mobility and physical security—with detailed strategic initiatives.

    Broadening focus: An expanded, integrated approach that builds on earlier themes to embrace a wider spectrum of emerging technologies.

    Decline in Large Deals and Specialty Hardware Underperformance

    Q2 emphasized a double-digit decline in large deals impacting specialty hardware, while Q4 2024 referenced challenges in the Comms and Specialty segments. Q1 did not specifically discuss this issue.

    Q3 noted a recovery with the return of large deals, even as overall specialty segment sales were impacted by conditions in Brazil, with recurring revenue acquisitions offsetting margin pressure.

    Recovery underway: Improvement in large deals in Q3 suggests a rebound from previous declines.

    Political Uncertainty Impacting Demand

    Q1 explicitly mentioned political uncertainty (elections) as a factor contributing to softer early-year performance. Q2 did not specifically highlight political factors, and Q4 2024 did not address them.

    Q3 did not explicitly mention political uncertainty, focusing instead on macroeconomic issues like tariffs and FX in Brazil.

    Diminished focus: Reduced explicit emphasis on political uncertainty in Q3 indicates its lower prominence as a driver of demand concerns.

    1. Q4 Growth
      Q: What growth is needed for $3B target?
      A: Management expects a high single-digit sequential improvement in Q4, supported by strong early trends in April, to reach the $3 billion net sales target.

    2. Free Cash Flow
      Q: Will Q4 free cash flow be negative?
      A: They noted that delayed sales timing in Q4 might temporarily lower free cash flow, though they remain confident in achieving at least $70 million free cash flow overall.

    3. Capital Allocation
      Q: Why raise share repurchase authorization now?
      A: The team increased the authorization to $200 million to balance funding for strategic acquisitions while continuing share repurchases, maintaining a solid balance sheet.

    4. Acquisition Valuation
      Q: How do acquisitions compare to buybacks in value?
      A: Management highlighted using earn-out structures to ensure acquisitions are both strategic and accretive, offering attractive valuation relative to buybacks.

    5. Gross Margins
      Q: Will large deals hurt margins next quarter?
      A: They acknowledged that large orders, typically lower-margin, might put pressure on gross profit, but this is mitigated by increased recurring revenues and acquired businesses like Advantix.

    6. N. America Sales
      Q: Why is NA sales declining despite growth trends?
      A: Management explained that lower net sales due to revenue netting mask the underlying organic growth in key segments across North America.

    7. Brazil Demand
      Q: What’s behind weak revenue in Brazil?
      A: They attributed weakness primarily to macro concerns and FX headwinds along with netting revenue effects, though the profitability there is largely insulated.

    8. Channel Exchange
      Q: How is Channel Exchange progressing for SaaS?
      A: The initiative is performing well by easing supplier transactions, particularly in the AI space, and successfully facilitating new signings.

    9. Supplier Growth
      Q: How do nine new suppliers compare to before?
      A: Management noted a marked increase in new suppliers, especially targeting AI, showing a more robust intake compared to previous periods.

    10. AI Master Class
      Q: How fast will AI Master Class generate revenue?
      A: Early results are promising with closed deals from Poly AI and Glia, suggesting quick monetization and immediate channel benefits.

    11. Acquisition Environment
      Q: What is the competitive landscape for acquisitions?
      A: They find a less competitive environment by building direct relationships, enabling disciplined and value-focused acquisitions.

    12. Leadership Incentives
      Q: Are business presidents incentivized on profitability?
      A: Yes, their roles now include setting IT priorities and acquisition strategies, aligning incentives closely with bottom-line growth.