Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Sweetgreen is introducing several new menu items and initiatives, including Ripple Fries launching in March , a major chef collaboration with a Michelin-Starred Chef in May , and the return of popular seasonal items that were dropped in 2024 ,. These offerings are expected to drive customer traffic and sequentially lift comparable store sales throughout the year ,.
- Deployment of Infinite Kitchens (IKs) is expected to accelerate margin expansion. Sweetgreen plans to open 20 out of 40 new restaurants with Infinite Kitchens in 2025 , , with further acceleration expected in 2026 and 2027. The company believes IKs will significantly enhance margins beyond current levels.
- Sweetgreen is reducing build-out costs for new stores to between $1.4 million and $1.5 million per location , with further improvements expected in 2026. This will improve returns on new units and support faster expansion.
- Weak Same-Store Sales Growth and Heavy Reliance on Future Initiatives: Sweetgreen's same-store sales growth is up only 1% through February 2025 after adjusting for external factors, indicating weak organic growth. The company is heavily relying on future initiatives like Ripple Fries launching in March, a new loyalty program in April, and menu collaborations to drive sales for the remainder of the year. This dependence may suggest underlying challenges in generating organic traffic and sustaining growth without continuous promotions. , ,
- Limited Margin Expansion Amid Rising Costs: The company's guidance projects restaurant-level margins between 19.8% and 20.5% for fiscal year 2025, showing minimal expansion from the previous year's 19.6%. This limited margin growth could indicate challenges in improving profitability due to rising costs or operational inefficiencies, potentially impacting the company's bottom line. ,
- Slow Implementation of Cost-Saving Initiatives: Despite recognizing the benefits of the Infinite Kitchen technology, Sweetgreen plans to retrofit only 1 to 3 existing restaurants in 2025 due to constraints. The slow rollout may delay expected operational efficiencies and labor savings, postponing the anticipated positive impact on margins and profitability.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
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Total Revenue | +5.1% increase from $152.99M in Q4 2023 to $160.88M in Q4 2024 | Modest revenue growth reflects improved performance across all channels (In-Store, Marketplace, and Owned Digital) as existing strategies continue to mature. This builds on prior quarter growth patterns where incremental restaurant openings and operational improvements had driven earlier revenue gains. |
Revenue Mix by Channel | In-Store: $70.75M; Marketplace: $43.15M; Owned Digital: $46.98M | Channel diversification shows that In-Store remains the dominant contributor, suggesting that continued physical expansion and customer experience enhancements are key drivers. This mix highlights a balanced revenue base that builds on previous successful in-store and digital channel investments. |
Operating Income | Worsened from –$29.29M in Q4 2023 to –$31.43M in Q4 2024 (7% decline) | Operating income deterioration is driven by rising operating costs that outpaced revenue growth, echoing earlier trends when investments increased expenses despite modest revenue gains. Higher CapEx investments and increased daily operating costs appear to have impacted margins negatively compared to the previous period. |
Net Income | Declined from –$27.41M in Q4 2023 to –$29.03M in Q4 2024 (≈5.9% drop) | The net loss widened as incremental revenue gains were insufficient to offset increased operating expenses and depreciation, following past period trends where improvements in Restaurant-Level Profit were overshadowed by higher costs. This indicates challenges in converting operational improvements into bottom-line gains. |
Cash Flow & CapEx | Net cash change worsened from –$17.51M to –$39.93M; CapEx jumped from –$14.79M to –$84.46M | Dramatic deterioration in cash metrics is primarily due to a steep increase in CapEx (an additional nearly $70M), signaling aggressive investment in expansion and asset upgrades. This contrasts with previous periods when CapEx was moderated and cash flow improved through better operating performance, raising forward-looking liquidity and investment discipline concerns. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
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Net new restaurant openings | FY 2025 | 24 to 26 | At least 40 | raised |
Revenue | FY 2025 | $675 million to $680 million | Between $760 million and $780 million | raised |
Same-store sales growth | FY 2025 | Between 6% and 7% | Between 1% and 3% | lowered |
Restaurant-level margin | FY 2025 | Between 19.5% and 20% | Between 19.8% and 20.5% | raised |
Adjusted EBITDA | FY 2025 | $18 million to $20 million | Between $32 million and $38 million | raised |
Infinite Kitchen deployment | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 20 of the 40 new restaurants will feature the Infinite Kitchen | no prior guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | FY 2024 | $675 million to $680 million | $676.8 million (sum of Q1 2024: 157,850, Q2 2024: 184,641, Q3 2024: 173,431, Q4 2024: 160,904) | Met |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Same-store sales growth | Q1: 5% growth driven entirely by menu price increases. Q2: 9% growth with a 5% benefit from increased prices and 4% from traffic/mix; record levels noted. Q3: 6% growth, with emerging markets posting double-digit gains fueled by a 4% benefit from price increases and 2% positive traffic and mix. | Q4: Reported 4% same-store sales growth; growth came solely from a 4% benefit from menu price increases with flat traffic and mix. | Declining growth: Although price increases remain a driver, same-store sales growth has been lower in Q4 relative to earlier periods. This signals both a continuation of price reliance and a modest tapering of organic traffic/mix contributions. |
Menu innovation & product diversification | Q1: Introduced Caramelized Garlic Steak, simplified the menu, and focused on sustainable, customer-driven changes. Q2: Highlighted steak launch as a driver of dinner sales and introduced testing for new side items, beverages, and chef collaborations. Q3: Expanded beyond salads with Protein Plates and seasonal items like Harvest Bowl, alongside testing of handheld items and desserts. | Q4: Emphasized a robust pipeline for 2025 with the return of a seasonal menu, the launch of Ripple Fries scheduled for March, and a chef collaboration in May. The new SG Rewards loyalty program will underpin these innovations, while a faster pace of menu innovation is planned to drive customer engagement. | Consistent commitment with increased emphasis: Menu innovation has been a constant theme, but Q4 shows a strategic deepening—with seasonal items returning, new product launches, and integration with a loyalty program—indicating a pivot towards more holistic promotional and product diversification initiatives. |
Infinite Kitchen & margin expansion | Q1: Initiated pilot deployments in locations like Huntington Beach and Naperville with high margins (28%) and plans to retrofit urban restaurants. Q2: Reported labor savings and cost-of-goods improvements through Infinite Kitchen pilots, with significant throughput improvements noted at Penn Plaza. Q3: Demonstrated faster service (e.g. 5-minute order fulfillment at Penn Plaza) and a margin improvement of over 100 basis points year-over-year. | Q4: Continued deployment with 12 Infinite Kitchens operational (6 opened in Q4) and plans to deploy 20 new IKs as part of 40 new restaurants in 2025. The technology is credited with 7 percentage points in labor savings and improvements in throughput and guest satisfaction, supporting margin expansion toward the low 20% range. | Scaling with sustained margin benefits: Infinite Kitchen technology has evolved from early pilots to a wider rollout with clear operational and margin benefits. Q4 confirms continued aggressive deployment and improved cost metrics, underscoring its role as a key pillar for margin expansion. |
Store expansion & new market penetration | Q1: Opened new markets such as Seattle, San Francisco, Miami, Denver, and Austin; strong early performance with high weekly revenue outpacing the fleet average. Q2: Targeted 15%-20% annual unit growth with new openings in Washington, D.C.; Chicago; Morristown; and Salem, emphasizing peripheral market strategies. Q3: Continued robust expansion with one-third of openings in new markets, notably in emerging regions (Midwest, Texas, Southeast), and recruitment of a Chief Development Officer. | Q4: Plans to accelerate unit growth by at least 15% in 2025 while entering new markets such as Sacramento, Phoenix, and Cincinnati. There is a strong focus on reducing build-out costs (tracked between $1.4M and $1.5M) and integrating Infinite Kitchens into new and retrofitted locations to improve profitability. | Aggressive expansion with cost efficiency focus: Store expansion remains a core priority across periods. In Q4, the strategy is enhanced by targeting cost reductions and deeper market penetration, signaling increased operational discipline alongside geographic growth. |
Operational challenges & complexity | Q1: Acknowledged retrofit downtime and rollout complexities with Infinite Kitchen deployments, with uncertainty factored into revenue guidance. Q2: Discussed retrofit timing—with the Penn Plaza retrofit taking 7 weeks (1 full closure)—and the learnings being applied to improve processes. Q3: Detailed challenges with rollout delays and retrofitting downtime (e.g. 6-7 weeks), while highlighting successes like the efficient Penn Plaza retrofit. | Q4: Noted ongoing challenges such as rollout delays, constraints on the IK team, and retrofitting downtime impacting operations. However, improvements in operational efficiency, including a new AI-powered workforce management system and record-low turnover rates, have helped mitigate some challenges. | Persistent but mitigated challenges: While operational complexities and rollout delays continue to exist, Q4 indicates progress with technological and workforce improvements that lessen their overall impact. |
Reliance on price increases & future promotions | Q1: Sales growth (5%) was driven entirely by a 5% price increase, especially noted in California. Q2: Continued reliance on price increases (e.g., 5% benefit) but with a cautious view due to inflationary pressures; some discussion of menu innovation helping drive traffic. Q3: Price increases contributed 4% to same-store sales, alongside modest promotional activities and evolving loyalty program discussions. | Q4: Indicated a gradual rolloff of price increases for 2025, with a clear pivot toward promotional initiatives. Future growth will be supported by new product launches (e.g. Ripple Fries), a chef collaboration, and the upcoming SG Rewards loyalty program to drive transactional growth. | Transition in growth drivers: Earlier periods relied heavily on price increases. Q4 marks a strategic shift towards diversified promotional initiatives and product innovation, reducing dependency on pricing as a growth lever. |
Economic uncertainty & consumer spending | Q1: No explicit discussion, though a subtle note on selective discretionary spending was made. Q2: CFO expressed caution amid an uncertain U.S. economic backdrop, acknowledging potential impacts on consumer spending. Q3: No specific discussion on economic uncertainty emerged. | Q4: The current period did not include any explicit discussion or mention of economic uncertainty or its impact on consumer spending. | Fading emphasis: Economic uncertainty was a topic of caution in Q2, but by Q4 it is no longer a focal point in discussions, suggesting either an improved external outlook or a strategic decision to pivot focus. |
Historical labor cost pressures | Q1: Addressed California labor pressures with a mid to high single-digit wage increase offset by a 5% price increase in California. Q2: Not specifically mentioned; Q3: Not detailed though Q3 noted improvements in labor expense percentages. | Q4: No explicit mention of historical labor cost pressures; instead, there is emphasis on improved labor metrics such as the lowest turnover and absentee rates in company history and the deployment of an AI-powered workforce management system. | Reduced emphasis: Early discussions on labor cost pressures (e.g. California wage hikes) have faded by Q4, replaced by positive labor outcomes and efficiency initiatives. |
Holiday traffic & seasonal sales weakness | Q1: Concerns were noted regarding the potential for negative traffic in holiday periods and uncertainties around seasonal performance, especially with new product launches and mid-quarter adjustments. Q2: Mentioned initial softness around the July holiday but recovery later in the quarter. Q3: No explicit or detailed focus on holiday traffic concerns beyond noting strong months like September. | Q4: No explicit mention of earlier holiday traffic or seasonal sales weaknesses. Instead, Q4 focused on positive same-store sales growth and the planned return of seasonal menu items in 2025 to reinvigorate performance. | Diminished concerns: Earlier worries regarding holiday traffic and seasonal sales weakness have largely disappeared by Q4, likely due to improved seasonal campaigns and operational adjustments. |
Emerging loyalty program rollout | Q1 & Q2: No discussion on new loyalty initiatives was present. Q3: Began addressing loyalty as a strategic lever with plans for a new program in H1 2025 to build direct customer relationships. | Q4: Provided detailed plans for the launch of the SG Rewards loyalty program in April 2025, including a points-based system with member-exclusive benefits and integrations with menu launches to drive engagement and customer frequency. | Emergence as a key initiative: Loyalty program discussions emerged in Q3 and have become a central focus in Q4, reflecting a strategic shift towards deepening customer relationships and reducing reliance on price-based growth. |
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2025 Outlook and Comp Growth
Q: How will 2025 unfold, and what are your comp growth expectations?
A: Management expects sales to build throughout the year, forecasting same-store sales growth of 3% to 5%, despite initial headwinds from the L.A. fires, which caused a 300 basis points overall headwind at the start of the year. The business improved in February from January and is expected to strengthen in Q2, Q3, and Q4 with new menu items and increased marketing efforts. -
Margin Outlook and Sustainability
Q: What are your expectations for restaurant-level margins, and how sustainable are current levels?
A: Management is confident in maintaining and increasing margins annually. They expect margins to progress into the low 20% range, even without considering the Infinite Kitchen (IK). Drivers include labor improvements, cost of goods leverage as markets scale, and reduced occupancy expenses as they expand beyond urban centers. -
Infinite Kitchen Impact and Deployment
Q: How is the Infinite Kitchen impacting operations and margins, and what are your deployment plans?
A: IK stores are showing consistent savings of 7 percentage points in labor and 1 percentage point in cost of goods. Customer satisfaction is high, with 90% favorable approval. They plan to deploy at least 20 new IKs in 2025, representing 50% of the 40 new stores planned, mostly in the year's second half. Additionally, plans include 1 to 3 retrofits and relocating 2 stores to incorporate IK. -
Cost to Build Down and Development Efforts
Q: How are you progressing in reducing the cost to build new stores?
A: The goal is to reduce core build-out costs, currently tracking between $1.4 million and $1.5 million per store. Opportunities exist to bring costs down further in 2026 through optimizing the prototype and bulk purchasing. -
Marketing Strategy and Menu Innovation
Q: What changes are you making to your marketing strategy and menu innovation?
A: Management is increasing marketing spend starting in Q2 and plans to reintroduce the seasonal menu with new launches, including chef collaborations, Ripple Fries, and a loyalty program. They believe this will drive customer engagement and comp growth, as frequent users value newness and seasonal offerings. -
Ripple Fries Performance
Q: What are the learnings from the Ripple Fries test, and how is it impacting sales?
A: Ripple Fries have become the highest-attached side they've ever tested and are entirely incremental to sales. Customer feedback has been very positive, helping improve overall culinary operations by optimizing cook and hold times. -
Throughput Improvements
Q: How are you improving throughput in traditional and Infinite Kitchen stores?
A: In traditional stores, they are adjusting labor deployment and testing "Project Turbo" to efficiently leverage both digital and front-line orders throughout the day. IK stores have a throughput potential of 500 orders per hour, with improvements in the finishing station enhancing speed and accuracy. -
Plans for IK Retrofits
Q: Are there plans to accelerate Infinite Kitchen retrofits in existing stores?
A: While there's a desire to retrofit more stores with IK, constraints on the IK team and potential disruptions mean significant acceleration is expected in 2026 and 2027. High-volume stores are prioritized for future retrofits. -
Menu Simplification Initiatives
Q: Are you simplifying the menu to accommodate increased innovation?
A: Yes, they continually seek to simplify operations and make room for innovations by optimizing the menu and reducing complexity through upstreaming initiatives and tools to ease tasks. -
Impact of Price Roll-Off on Comps
Q: How is the roll-off of pricing impacting same-store sales comps?
A: They rolled off 1 percentage point of price entering 2025 and will continue gradual roll-off throughout the year. This has been factored into comp expectations, with underlying comps positive around 1% through February without new menu innovation or marketing.
Research analysts covering Sweetgreen.