Executive Summary

Q3 2025 delivered an EPS and revenue beat vs consensus, with diluted EPS $0.84 and revenue $2.159B; Adjusted EBITDA was $676M with a 31% margin . Against S&P Global consensus, EPS beat by ~9¢, revenue beat by ~$19M, while SPGI’s EBITDA actual of $643M* was below SPGI’s EBITDA consensus of ~$654M* (note different definition vs company’s Adjusted EBITDA).
Management raised full‑year 2025 guidance by $25M across revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow to $8.525B, $2.625B, and $1.225B, respectively .
Pandora/off‑platform ad revenue grew 2% YoY; podcasts were again the growth engine, offsetting continued softness in music streaming ad demand .
Strategic catalysts: expanding in‑car 360L penetration and rollout of ad replacement in the car early next year, plus spectrum optionality; management reiterated deleveraging priorities and shareholder returns .
Capital returns remained active in Q3: $91M in dividends and $20M in buybacks; long‑term net debt/Adj. EBITDA target is low‑to‑mid 3x (Q3 ended at ~3.8x) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

EPS and revenue beats vs consensus alongside stable margins: EPS $0.84 and revenue $2.159B; Adjusted EBITDA $676M with a 31% margin .
Advertising traction from podcasts and programmatic; Creator Connect and Amazon DSP integration supported monetization gains; podcast revenue up ~50% YoY per management .
Management raised full‑year guidance and emphasized disciplined cost management and debt reduction: “We maintained solid margins…delivered a $120 million reduction in debt and $111 million to our shareholders” — CFO Tom Barry .

What Went Wrong

SiriusXM subscriber revenue declined YoY (-$13M) on a smaller average self‑pay base, and Pandora gross margin fell to 31% amid higher revenue share and softer music streaming ad demand .
SAC per installation rose to $19.37 driven by higher-cost chipsets and OEM contractual changes; subscriber acquisition costs increased to $107M .
SPGI “EBITDA” actual was below SPGI EBITDA consensus*, highlighting definitional differences vs company Adjusted EBITDA; Pandora RPM fell YoY ($91.24 vs $104.50), pressuring advertising yield *.

Financial Results

Reported results vs prior quarters (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$2.068	$2.138	$2.159
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.59	$0.57	$0.84
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$629	$668	$676
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	30%	31%	31%
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$204	$205	$297

Q3 2025 actuals vs Wall Street consensus (S&P Global)

Metric	Consensus (Q3 2025)	Actual (Q3 2025)	Surprise
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)	0.7716*	0.84	+$0.0684 (Beat)*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)	$2.140*	$2.159	+$0.019 (Beat)*
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)	$0.654*	$0.643*	-$0.011 (Miss)*

Note: Asterisked values are “Values retrieved from S&P Global.” Company reports “Adjusted EBITDA” of $676M , which differs from SPGI “EBITDA” definition.

Segment breakdown (Q3 2025)

Segment	Revenue ($USD Millions)	Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	Gross Margin (%)
SiriusXM	$1,611	$958	59%
Pandora & Off‑Platform	$548	$170	31%

KPIs (oldest → newest)

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
SiriusXM ARPU ($)	$14.86	$15.22	$15.19
SiriusXM Self‑Pay Monthly Churn (%)	1.6%	1.5%	1.6%
SiriusXM Self‑Pay Net Adds (000s)	(303)	(68)	(40)
SiriusXM Ending Subs (000s)	32,864	32,797	32,808
Pandora MAUs (000s)	42,357	42,684	41,562
Pandora RPM ($ per 1k hours)	$87.23	$85.97	$91.24
SAC per Installation ($)	$18.86	$18.04	$19.37

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Revenue ($USD Billions)	FY 2025	~$8.5	~$8.525	Raised $0.025B
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)	FY 2025	~$2.6	~$2.625	Raised $0.025B
Free Cash Flow ($USD Billions)	FY 2025	~$1.15	~$1.225	Raised $0.075B

Dividend: Board declared $0.27 per share quarterly dividend (payable Nov 21, 2025; record Nov 5, 2025) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Pricing & ARPU	March price increase; ARPU comps to improve through year; building “good‑better‑best” tiers incl. music‑only and upcoming ad‑supported tier	ARPU up YoY; considering more frequent price actions (potentially ~18 months) while monitoring subscription fatigue	Improving ARPU trajectory; disciplined pricing cadence
Ad monetization & podcasts	Podcast revenue +33% YoY; Creator Connect; programmatic growth; Innovid integration and AI voice replicas for ad creative	Podcasts up ~50% YoY per management; Amazon DSP integration; unified cross‑platform buying; in‑car ad replacement early next year	Strengthening; expanding tools and inventory
In‑car product (360L) & OEMs	360L penetration >50% of new cars targeted; new OEM programs; dealer 3‑yr subs; EV initiatives	360L expansion continues (e.g., Toyota RAV4 launch); customer‑based identity framework reduces friction; strong engagement (28 streaming days/month for 360L streamers)	Broader penetration; improved conversion/retention foundation
Streaming‑only subs & click‑to‑cancel	Anticipated headwind from reduced streaming marketing and click‑to‑cancel roll‑out	Expect ~300K net add reduction in 2025 from streaming adjustment, concentrated in Q1 and Q4	Headwind peaking; expected to normalize entering 2026
Cost structure & CapEx	On track for ~$200M gross savings in 2025; non‑satellite CapEx trending lower	Achieved $200M cost savings in‑year; continued discipline while investing selectively	Executing; supports FCF and deleveraging
Spectrum optionality	Not highlighted in Q1; Q2 focused on core operations	Evaluating monetization pathways for ~35 MHz contiguous spectrum (25 MHz core + 10 MHz WCS); exploring partnerships	New strategic optionality emerging

Management Commentary

CEO Jennifer Witz: “This was a quarter of meaningful progress…driving greater engagement and value for our listeners…we’re leveraging our unique assets to deliver sustainable profitability…as we raise our full year guidance” .
CFO Tom Barry: “We maintained solid margins…investments…largely off‑set by disciplined cost management…we remain confident in our strategy and on track to meet our new full‑year guidance” .
On ad monetization: “SiriusXM Media now reaches more than 170 million listeners a month…podcast network is now the largest in the nation…programmatic advertising up year over year” — CEO .
On product and customer experience: “We began rolling out our new customer‑based identity framework, which shifts subscriptions from vehicle‑based to customer‑based…expected to drive stronger customer acquisition, higher retention, and sustained revenue growth” — CEO .
On capital allocation and leverage: “We ended the quarter with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.8x…reduced total debt by $120 million and returned $111 million to shareholders” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Subscriber trends: Management reiterated expected ~300K streaming‑related net add reduction in 2025, concentrated in Q1 and Q4; core in‑car business trending better YoY with acquisition initiatives and low churn .
Pricing cadence: Open to more frequent (e.g., ~18‑month) pricing actions, balanced by added product value and monitoring for subscription fatigue .
In‑car advertising: Ad replacement in the car will begin early next year, enabling addressable inventory; unified cross‑platform buying to strengthen monetization .
Spectrum strategy: Company holds ~35 MHz contiguous spectrum (25 MHz core, 10 MHz WCS); evaluating multiple value‑creation approaches and potential partnerships rather than outright sale .
Capital returns & leverage path: Focus on deleveraging to low‑to‑mid‑3x by late next year, maintaining dividend policy; flexibility for enhanced buybacks thereafter .

Estimates Context

Versus consensus (S&P Global), Q3: EPS $0.84 beat $0.7716*, revenue $2.159B beat $2.140B*, while SPGI “EBITDA” actual $0.643B* missed $0.654B*; company’s non‑GAAP Adjusted EBITDA was $676M *.
Q4 setup: Consensus EPS ~$0.778* and revenue ~$2.169B*; guidance raises suggest potential upward estimate revisions for FY revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and FCF* .

Note: Asterisked values are “Values retrieved from S&P Global.”

Key Takeaways for Investors

Positive inflection: EPS and revenue beats with steady margins and a guidance raise signal operational discipline and monetization progress .
Podcasts and programmatic are driving ad momentum; near‑term tailwind continues as tools (Creator Connect, Amazon DSP) and unified buying scale .
In‑car platform advantages (360L, identity framework) and pricing tiers support ARPU and retention; headwinds from streaming pullback should fade into 2026 .
Watch early‑2026 catalysts: ad replacement in the car goes live early next year; potential for addressable in‑car ad monetization to re‑rate ad revenue trajectory .
Spectrum optionality adds strategic upside; management evaluating partnerships/use cases without committing to a sale .
Capital discipline persists: deleveraging toward low‑to‑mid‑3x, steady dividend ($0.27 quarterly), selective buybacks; improved FCF guide to $1.225B .
Near‑term trading lens: beats plus guidance raise are supportive; monitor Q4 streaming headwind timing, podcast strength durability, and any updates on spectrum monetization .

SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC. (SIRI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary