SL Green Realty - Q2 2024
July 18, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Thank you, everybody, for joining us, and welcome to SL Green Realty Corp's second quarter 2024 earnings results conference call. This conference call is being recorded. At this time, the company would like to remind listeners that during the call, management may make forward-looking statements. You should not rely on forward-looking statements as predictions of future events, as actual results and events may differ from any forward-looking statements that management may make today. All forward-looking statements made by management on this call are based on their assumptions and beliefs as of today. Additional information regarding the risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause such differences to appear are set forth in the Risk Factors and MD&A sections of the company's latest Form 10-K and other subsequent reports filed by the company with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Also, during today's conference call, the company may discuss non-GAAP financial measures as defined by Regulation G under the Securities Act. The GAAP financial measures most directly comparable to each non-GAAP financial measure discussed, and the reconciliation of the differences between each non-GAAP financial measures and the comparable GAAP financial measures can be found on both the company's website at www.slgreen.com. By selecting the press release regarding the company's second quarter 2024 earnings and our supplemental information, including our current report on Form 8-K relating to our second quarter 2024 earnings. Before turning the call over to Marc Holliday, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of SL Green Realty Corp., I ask that those of you participating in the Q&A portion of the call to please limit your questions to 2 per person. Thank you.
I'll now turn the call over to Marc Holliday. Please go ahead, Marc.
Marc Holliday (CEO)
Thank you. Good afternoon and appreciate everybody joining in today. I think this was, by all measures, a great quarter for SL Green, even by our own lofty standards. I want to lead off by expressing my sincere appreciation for the SL Green team, who have massively contributed to our company's impressive results for this quarter and throughout the most challenging times of recent. The extremely talented men and women of SL Green work seven days a week, believe in New York City, care deeply about what we are doing, and are simply the best in the business. We could not print these results against the tide of negativity and defeatism without the dedication and loyalty of the 300-plus SL Green corporate employees and another 1,000-plus who work in the buildings day, night, weekends, and holidays.
We are extremely lucky to have such a diverse and talented team of professionals, and it's the biggest reason for our performance in the office sector over the past one, three, and five years. It should be the deciding factor in making an investment in SL Green, the knowledge that we can outperform in good markets and bad, and that we will always put the shareholders first in making strategic decisions. This year-to-date achievement illustrates something far greater than simply a market in recovery, because we are vastly outperforming a still unsettled commercial real estate market.
It is the result of a deliberate plan we laid out years ago to improve the quality of our portfolio by physically improving and amenitizing our properties, focusing our efforts along the Park Avenue spine in East Midtown, selling assets that didn't fit that profile, and then monetizing our best assets to fund our new development activity. What you are now seeing is the positive consequence of the execution of that plan, and I believe we are now on a path to seeing sequential quarterly improvement in our operating and financial metrics into the foreseeable future. When others gave up on New York, we believed.
People said that the financial sector was picking up and moving to Florida, but what we've seen is significant sector growth right here in our hometown, fueled in part by the $12 billion of Wall Street profits in just the first quarter of 2024, and that's as compared to $26 billion for all of last year. Growth in South Florida and elsewhere doesn't mean contraction here in New York. In fact, it's been the opposite. Companies like Blackstone, Citadel, Wells Fargo, and Bloomberg are all expanding their footprint here, and it appears that J.P. Morgan is buying the neighboring building at 250 Park Avenue as they continue to report extremely strong profits.
But the demand for space goes far beyond Park Avenue, and I think the best illustration of that is looking at our current pipeline of office leasing, of which is 1.2 million sq ft. This is after all the activity we announced yesterday, totaling 1.4 million sq ft of leases signed to date. There's another 1.2 million sq ft of identifiable leases pending, term sheets out for signature, that we have in our sights after that activity. And interestingly, more than 80% of that activity is not on Park Avenue, but rather it's on, you know, radiating outwards through East Midtown, everywhere from Sixth Avenue on over to Third Avenue, fairly evenly dispersed. Lots of mid-market deals, lots of strength in the middle, not just the big deals.
I think it's, you know, one of the more exciting elements of what we have to look forward to for the balance of this year. You know, everyone wrote off retail in New York City, but you saw our release, yesterday, and it very clearly is back. Retail is back. Yesterday, we announced that One Madison Retail is now 100% leased, curated in a way that brings real value to our tenants at the building and to the residents of the Flatiron neighborhood. Naysayers wrote off New York as a global destination, but tourism is beating expectations again. Well over 60 million tourists expected this year in New York. Hotel average daily rates up 3% year-over-year.
Occupancy is approaching 90% in Manhattan, and the result of this is because of limits on Airbnbs and conversion of some hotel properties to supportive housing. If this trend continues, Midtown is likely going to be under-hoteled again soon. There is no better evidence of this surge of tourism than right upstairs from us at Summit, where attendance numbers are up again this year over, you know, the outperformance attendance we had last year. It's just proving again and again that this is become one of New York City's most compelling destination experiences and was a contributor to our quarterly results, and, you know, more to come on that. I want to end on an even higher note. Today, I'm excited to announce that we have secured our first new Summit global location, and we are expanding to Paris.
More details to come on that in the fall today, but today I can say to everyone listening in, in Paris, à bientôt, and see you soon, and thank you all for listening, and we'll take questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. At this time, we'll conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone, wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please limit your questions to two per person. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of John Kim of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
John Kim (Analyst)
Threw a curveball with the Paris announcement, so I have to ask about that. Can you just talk anything more about the location of Summit in Paris, the timing of it, and, you know, anything else you could describe on it?
Marc Holliday (CEO)
Yeah. No, you know, we're gonna leave that... Stay tuned. More formal rollout in the coming months. Lots to talk about. Very exciting, but just wanted everyone to know we're coming.
John Kim (Analyst)
Maybe if I could focus then on Summit New York. You had a 16% growth in revenue, this quarter year-over-year. How much of that was visitor count versus average ticket price? And can you also remind us on the mechanics of how the rent is paid to the JV? How much of the OpEx is, is that rent figure?
Marc Holliday (CEO)
Okay, I got the first part of the question. It's mostly attendance. I think the attendance, which we had up for the year, was up another 100,000 for the first half of the year, above our budgeted numbers. The ticket prices are fixed. I just wonder, you know, so you know, we, we, my goal is, and the goal at Summit is to really keep Summit as an affordable price point as possible so people can come and enjoy it both within the city and around, you know, the world. We have programs for New York residents, where they get discounts. We have, we have, discounted programs that I think are best in class for active duty personnel and, and veterans. And the prices are fixed. We don't surge price.
We set those prices the beginning of the year. We hold them fixed and evaluate at the end of every year. So, almost all of what you see is attendance. What was that second part that you asked, if I can ask you, John, again?
John Kim (Analyst)
The intercompany rent or the rent that you pay to the JV, how much of that is in the operating expense? And also on the revenue or visitor counts, when do you start opening up on Mondays or expanding the hours?
Marc Holliday (CEO)
Well, why don't you answer the rent part?
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
Yeah, rent schedule is in the supplemental, John. The base rent. We don't get into how much percentage rent the Summit paid to the building.
Marc Holliday (CEO)
Okay, and-
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
And then hours.
Marc Holliday (CEO)
Hours of operation?
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
Yeah, hours and days.
Marc Holliday (CEO)
You know, those are... I think right now we're typically opening from around 9:00 A.M., last ticket sale 10:30 P.M., facility closes at midnight. We could go longer. The night, the night experience at Summit is every bit as good as daytime and sunset, something better, because of the city lights and the Air at night feature we have, with... That we've curated in the evening. So it's possible that in the second half of the year, maybe after the summer, we'll, we'll go later on the, closing hours. We're open seven days a week now. In portions of the first half of the year, we were closed on Tuesdays, I believe, down days, but right now the facility is in excellent condition. The demand is strong.
We're going seven days, and I imagine we'll be going seven days almost right up until the end of the season. Right up until the end of the year.
John Kim (Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question... Our next question comes from the line of Connor Mitchell of Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.
Connor Mitchell (Analyst)
Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Marc, you touched on it in your opening remarks, which is this Park Avenue leases up at higher rents with, you know, the recent quarter and activity as an example. Can you just expand on how you guys are seeing the, the dynamic of the neighboring submarkets changing in terms of pricing, concessions, touring activity, any other color you might be able to give?
Marc Holliday (CEO)
Yeah, you know, I don't have the average starting rent for the pipeline, but, you know, just to give you a sense, for the leases done in the second quarter, the average rent, which was about $93 in the first quarter, was up over 10% to over $100 in the second quarter. So, you know, a lot of that is influenced by Park, but not all of it. It's really, it's as much Park Avenue as it is tops of buildings, because, you know, I think Steve will sort of run you through the dynamic in the, dearth, if you will, of big block availability, particularly in tops of buildings, whether it's old or new, and regardless if it's on Park or off of Park. And, it's definitely driving rents.
As it relates to concessions, Steve, you know, your thoughts?
Steven Durels (Executive VP and Director)
Well, a couple points. You know, Marc's spot on with regards to the, you know, migration to better quality space, and don't confuse that to mean just new construction or heavily renovated buildings. What we're seeing is that, even in the mid-price point buildings, where we've got a tremendous amount of activity in our portfolio, but a lot of that is skewed towards the upper half of the floors, so the tower floors in particular. If you look overall in the market, you know, beyond just our portfolio, there's a stat out there that would tell you that 57% of the current direct availability in the marketplace is located in base building or in the base floors of buildings.
So you're seeing price appreciation on Park Avenue, you're seeing price appreciation in the heavily renovated buildings, irrespective of location, and you're seeing price appreciation and strong leasing velocity in the tower floors of both the high-quality buildings and the mid-price point buildings. Concessions, I think, as we've said for a while now, remain pretty static. I haven't seen any change in concessions, irrespective of the building you're in. And, you know, we're seeing the prices get pushed on the better portions of buildings and better quality buildings. And I think we had commented earlier in the year when asked that same question, that's exactly how we expected things to unfold as the market continues to improve.
Connor Mitchell (Analyst)
Okay, appreciate that. And then, maybe just a quick question on the JV debt fund as well. Just wondering if there's any update on if the focus is still primarily on Manhattan or maybe any, any opportunities outside of the company's primary focus submarkets, may have surprised you, and you're kind of taking a look at any, any opportunities for the debt fund outside of Manhattan.
Harrison Sitomer (Chief Investment Officer)
Manhattan. The focus is Manhattan.
Connor Mitchell (Analyst)
Okay.
Harrison Sitomer (Chief Investment Officer)
I will add to that, you know, as you'll start to see us or continue to see us grow the special servicing and asset management business, which is not a principal investment business, you'll continue to see us pick up assignments outside of Manhattan, but that's purely a fee business for us.
Connor Mitchell (Analyst)
Okay, thanks very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lewis of Truist Securities. Your line is now open.
Michael Lewis (Analyst)
Thank you. My first question is about the leasing in Manhattan so far, year to date. You know, your full year guidance, as you know, for Manhattan office signed leases is 2 million sq ft for the year. I don't know if you expected that to be, you know, first half weighted or not. So I guess the question is, you know, is your volume year to date, are you running ahead of what you expected in your guidance? And if you are, you know, is there a reason, or is it just, you know, broad strength that you're seeing in the market?
Marc Holliday (CEO)
Well, I mean, we're definitely running ahead of guidance. The year has been, you know, first half of the year was really strong for us, and occupancy heading in the right direction and not just volume for volume's sake, but really good leases on, you know, terms where we're satisfied with. And, you know, I think you saw, you know, you're seeing that in our guidance, as well as in other ways. So yeah, we'll—we should exceed our goal for the year, and that's, you know, that's good. By how much? We'll see. I'd like to see Steve and his team blow it away, you know, and end up with some really, you know, sort of fantastic results.
But look, it's, there's a lot of work to do on that $1.2 million pipeline. I guess, you know, Steve, you could sort of give some, you know, parameters around what's driving that pipeline, and you know, where that strength is coming from.
Steven Durels (Executive VP and Director)
Yeah. So as we mentioned earlier, the pipe is currently at stands at about 1,200,000 sq ft. In that number, we have leases out in negotiation as opposed to just term sheets being negotiated, covering over 760,000 sq ft.
... and of that number, of the overall pipeline of 1.2 million, 62% of the square footage that's in the pipeline is for deals or pending deals for current vacancy in the building. So you're seeing a lot of new tenants come into the, into the portfolio, filling current vacancy. We're seeing the financial service sector, which it makes up 50% of our pipeline, continue to add bodies and add square footage and see dramatic expansions. Some of the bigger deals that you've seen us announce recently this year with both PJT at 280 Park Avenue and Ares at 245 Park Avenue, those were very large transactions, and each of them were for tenants that were doubling in size.
So, I think those were the, you know, those were some big drivers of our success to date, and, you know, we're seeing that in our pipeline, so no expectation that's slowing down for the rest of the year.
Michael Lewis (Analyst)
I agree. We'll look for that green thumbs up on that slide in the deck in December. My second question is about the fee income, and I talked to Matt a little bit about this. The other revenue line item was $33 million this quarter. It was $13 million in the first quarter. If I look at the guidance, it appears to me it's somewhere in the mid-teens, quarterly run rate the next couple of quarters. Can you maybe talk about the recurring fees?
And I don't want to call the rest of them non-recurring, because I realize they're just lumpy and more transaction driven, but it might help kind of frame not only modeling, but what multiples to put on revenue streams, you know, to talk about the servicing fee versus some of the lumpier transaction fees in that line item.
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
Yeah, it's Matt. So, you know, I think this quarter finally illuminates to people, you know, the, the fee-generating machine that this platform can be, which we've, you know, telegraphed to people over the last few years, and it's really, you know, showing its strength now. These fees come in various forms, and they can be lumpy. So, last quarter was, you know, a fairly muted quarter in ancillary fee income. This was big, and those fees can come in many forms. We talked about the special servicing business. That business is, you know, basic, modest fees on a monthly basis until you resolve the situation, then you get a resolution success fee. Those are unpredictable, but they're sizable when they come in. We often get fees from partners, buyers of assets of restructuring debt.
Those can be lumpy, those can be time, you know, a function of the timing of the closing of those deals. That's part of, you know, what flowed through in the quarter. So when you say, you know, what's recurring? Well, all of those as categories are return-- are recurring. The timing of those things is what is most challenging. By the way, even for us, it's the blessing of not putting out quarterly guidance. I don't have to guess when these fees come in every three months. We can do it over the course of twelve months, but even that can move from quarter to quarter.
As categories, you will see special servicing fees, ancillary fees, asset management fees continue to be a bigger and bigger part of our recurring income, and that's a very high margin business, much higher margin than the real estate, and therefore, requires a much higher multiple.
Michael Lewis (Analyst)
Yeah. Well, I have to continue to do quarter-to-quarter, so I'll do my best, but, thank you for that.
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
Yeah.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Nick Yulico of Scotiabank. Your line is now open.
Nick Yulico (Analyst)
Thanks. First question is for the Ares renewal and expansion. I think that was done in July. Is it possible to get a feel for the mark-to-market on that?
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
It's a sizable number. I don't want to get into specific mark-to-markets on leases, but it's, you know, the leases in 245 Park, as a general statement, are being marked up significantly from prior vintage.
Marc Holliday (CEO)
Yeah, I mean, you gotta understand, the asset was owned by HNA for a period of time, and you know, it was probably not receiving the amount of capital commitment it deserved in order to be responsive to a building that's in an unbelievable location and should be a market leader, you know, really, in terms of Park Avenue address. So, you know, we're obviously addressing that through a significant capital program we've launched. It's already underway. We hope to be done by end of 2025, first quarter of 2026. And you know, we're marketing the building off of the commitment to do that, you know, very robust repositioning of the property, everything from plaza to lobby, amenities, new rooftop, et cetera.
I mean, it's gonna be a phenomenal building when it's done. So, you know, when you look at mark-to-markets, it's kind of... it's a bit unfair to compare, you know, apples and oranges because this building is completely different than its current state or predecessor building. The rents are reflective that, of that, and all the rents in the building from bottom to top are decidedly triple digits, you know, maxing out at, you know, as much as $150 a foot or thereabouts. And, you know, we're probably raising rents as we go forward because there's a diminishing-...
Supply of what's left, we had forecasted a longer lease-up period, but given both the demand for renewal space and expansion space and new leases we've signed, you've seen a bunch of them over the past few quarters. I expect we'll be able to achieve even, you know, higher mark-to-markets as we go forward to full lease up of the building.
Nick Yulico (Analyst)
Okay, thanks for that. I guess, Marc, just to follow up then, is that, you know, I know, you've gotten a lot of leasing done in the building, as you mentioned, and it sounds like rents have gone higher. You know, can you then just give us a feel for how you're thinking about then what the asset valuation could be like versus the, the interest sale that was done last year? I realize you're still, you know, I think, focused on that. Just any feel for whether it's an NOI number or something else, how that may have changed, based on the underwriting a year ago versus what you're trying to achieve now?
Marc Holliday (CEO)
Well, I don't have those numbers in front of me, but I mean, you know, just looking at it intuitively, we're like, over a year forward, I think, in terms of time elapsed. We've leased up a lot of space. We've done it, you know, on budget. So time value alone, you know, would warrant, you know, some type of premium. On the one hand, you could say, well, you know, that's great progress. On the other hand, we budgeted this progress. That's the progress our partner bought into, when they did the deal. When was it, Harry?
Operator (participant)
13 months ago.
Marc Holliday (CEO)
13 months ago. You know, one of the things our partners rely on is we put numbers on a piece of paper. They're not shy, they're not unobtainable, obviously, but they're not shy. We test ourselves, just like we do with you guys every December with our scorecard. We do it the same with our partners, and put down what we think we can achieve, both timing and rents and concession packages. We've been achieving that, so the good news is we're executing the plan. The costs for the development are coming in right on the nose of where we expected them to come in. In fact, we increased the scope a bit to include a more dramatically improved rooftop like we did at One Madison.
And by the way, the rooftop at One Madison is spectacular, and I think it's gonna be one of the, one of the real, icons down in that area, for venue space going forward. And so on the one hand, you pick up the time value, on the other hand, we're dead on our numbers. So, that's the good news, and I would expect there'll be some premium to where we, transact it.
Nick Yulico (Analyst)
All right, thanks. Appreciate it.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa of Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
Steve Sakwa (Analyst)
Thanks. You guys have had a lot of success leasing up, you know, 280 Park, 245 Park. Obviously, One Vanderbilt is filled. You know, One Madison, on the office side, maybe hasn't made as much traction, Mark. I know you kind of leased up all the retail there, but maybe you or Steve, just kind of speak to the demand within that 1.2 million sq ft pipeline that you're seeing for One Madison, and maybe what's been holding the leasing back at that asset?
Marc Holliday (CEO)
Well, Steve, I just wanna-
Steven Durels (Executive VP and Director)
No, no-
Marc Holliday (CEO)
No, no, Steve.
Steven Durels (Executive VP and Director)
Go, go ahead.
Marc Holliday (CEO)
No, hold on. I gotta... Well, first of all, somebody restrain this guy. Second of all, Steve Sakwa, that's quite a statement, given that we're 65% leased, over 70% economically leased, right on our original budget, which was a pre-COVID budget, right on our numbers, and the building doesn't even really open until, I think, like, you know, November or something. So to say the building is behind schedule or whatever words you use, or you know, not leasing or anything, no chance, my friend. I mean, we leased that building-
Steve Sakwa (Analyst)
I don't think I said that, Marc, but-
Marc Holliday (CEO)
We leased that building. That retail is 100% leased, the tower is 100% leased, and we are, I think, 3/8 leased in the podium or something like that. It is dead on the numbers. So we could talk about the leasing status, that's fine, but no notion of any challenge or any underperformance on that asset. No way. Now, Steve Durels, he's calmed down a bit, so he can go.
Steven Durels (Executive VP and Director)
Steve, isn't it good when your boss has your back that way?
Steve Sakwa (Analyst)
I'm glad he's passionate about the project.
Steven Durels (Executive VP and Director)
Well, I think Marc hit all the highlights. You know, it's, it's... The building is 65% leased. The tower portion of the building is fully leased. We just signed the top floor with an expansion to FanDuel, so they now have two floors in the building, at rents that exceeded our underwrite, for that last floor. What we have remaining in the building are five floors in the podium of the building. Those are 92,000 sq ft floor plates. Without a doubt, it is the best building in the Midtown South sub-market, and everybody we tour through there loves the project.
The challenge are, you know, what we have available right now are those five large floor plates, and as no doubt, you've read some of the market reports in the brokerage houses, there's been a dearth of large tenants in the Midtown South market, as opposed to large tenants actively transacting in Midtown, where we've done more than our fair share of very large deals in the Midtown market. It's just a matter of time before, you know, the large tenants sort of come back into the Midtown South market, and when they do, the building is well positioned, and we'll have great success.
Steve Sakwa (Analyst)
... Okay, thanks. And then is there any update on the potential stake in One Vanderbilt? I know that was something that was actively marketed and part of your plan for 2024. I'm just curious if there's any updates you can share.
Harrison Sitomer (Chief Investment Officer)
Yeah, sure. You know, One Vanderbilt, you know, continues to set the standard, for the market, and it continues to receive, you know, recognition nationally and globally. You know, no matter what meeting we're in throughout the world, the first thing investors wanna talk about is One Vanderbilt. It's fully leased. The debt is locked in through 2031, sub 3%. Summit continues to outperform as a globally recognized tourist destination. We just added our second Michelin Star restaurant. Architecturally, Jamie von Klemperer and the KPF team just received, I think it was, like, last month, the prestigious, AIA National Architectural Award for their work at the building. And by my estimation, we have an excess of $30 a foot of average embedded rent growth.
Really, which, you know, I look at as demonstrating the scarcity, and really no comparable supply on the horizon due to a bunch of factors. You know, sourcing the right location, long lead time, lack of affordable construction financing. Some of the big anchors needed for any of comparable project to this recently signed up commitments. I think you have Blackstone, Bloomberg, and Citadel. And I think all these factors, they really create a moat for One Vanderbilt. And so for all these reasons, of course, we have very strong investor appetite and multiple offers from investors. And I know everyone on this call wants speed, but I think most important is the right investor on the right terms and not really looking at it quarter by quarter.
With that said, we are working on transaction documents, and I do expect news to share later this quarter.
Steve Sakwa (Analyst)
Great. Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Camille Bonnel of Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Camille Bonnell (Analyst)
Hi. It seems like the financing and transaction market is starting to open up this year. More broadly, can you talk to how investors are underwriting lease-up timelines and returns for office in New York City?
Harrison Sitomer (Chief Investment Officer)
Just, just repeat, do you mind repeating the question?
Camille Bonnell (Analyst)
Just wondering if you could provide more color on the underwriting that investors are looking for, when looking at office buildings?
Harrison Sitomer (Chief Investment Officer)
Yeah, look, I-
Camille Bonnell (Analyst)
Lease-up timelines, yields. Yeah.
Harrison Sitomer (Chief Investment Officer)
Yeah, I would say on the fundamental side, for the right assets, I think as we've always said, you can't generalize the market. But for the types of deals we own, for the types of deals we're investing in, looking at, whether it be through the fund or through our balance sheet, the fundamentals of the real estate, investors are very easily wrapping their head around today. There isn't a lot of question about, rents, downtime, or even concessions at this point. You know, investors, again, whether it be through the fund or on specific deals, they have a lot of confidence in our ability to underwrite assets. You know, we talked about 245 Park.
As Marc said, we're dead on the underwrite that we presented to our partner a year ago, and that is over 500,000 sq ft of leasing just in 13 months. So there's a lot of, there's a lot of ability for investors as we sit with them, to wrap their head around those fundamentals. With respect to the overall transaction market, you know, the reason we're not seeing, you know, significant number of investor transactions is really just the lack of debt liquidity today. And a lot of that is what is driving us to want to launch the fund and the efforts that we're putting in there is to be that source of liquidity.
But, you know, right now, the reason we're not seeing significant investor activity is really because investors are still trying to wrap their head around where the liquidity will come from in the debt capital markets.
Camille Bonnell (Analyst)
Okay. For the benefit of those who've only started to follow your company more recently, curious to understand the kind of involvement your teams engage in when you have active assignments on the special servicing side. How much capacity do they have to take on more?
Harrison Sitomer (Chief Investment Officer)
Yeah, look, special servicing and asset management for us is really an exponentially growing opportunity. You know, we have a subsidiary entity, Green Loan Services, run by Andrew Falk. And, you know, capital providers continue to come to us for real estate services, whether that be on the special servicing side or asset management side. Right now, we have about $3 billion over $3 billion of active special servicing and asset management, and another $6 billion where we're named special servicer, which I just look at as future opportunities for the special servicing business. In addition to that, you know, I expect that to grow pretty exponentially over the coming quarters.
We have a pipeline right now of over $2 billion of additional opportunities, not all in New York, and I would expect very shortly to land most, if not all, of those. You know, those figures are gonna continue to grow, and as I think Matt alluded to earlier, that almost entirely goes right to the bottom line. So, you know, that's a big, that's a big focus of ours. In terms of staff, you know-
... which I think was the second part of your question. You know, Andrew and his team, you know, continue to have the ability to take on new opportunities and use the resources within the firm. But we're constantly monitoring if we need to staff additional people on it. But again, I would expect most, if not all, of the revenues to go right to bottom line.
Anthony Paolone (Analyst)
To clarify, is the timing of that $6 billion that you're designated as, factored into the updated guidance you provided last night?
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
The $6 billion is not factored at all into the guidance we put out last night. None of it.
Anthony Paolone (Analyst)
Okay. Thank you.
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
Yeah.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Blaine Heck of Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.
Blaine Heck (Analyst)
Great, thanks. Rent spreads on signed leases increased really nicely for you guys this quarter. Can you just try to characterize kind of how much of that you think might have been more of a mix issue and lower rents on the expirations this quarter, versus how much of that is kind of a reflection of market rent growth that you guys have seen recently? Really just trying to get at whether the mid-teens level seen this quarter is kind of a blip or a level that could be more sustainable.
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
Yeah, I mean, the mark-to-market, when we put out our guidance, and then reported first quarter, people questioned, you know, how do you correlate down in the first quarter to a, you know, positive 2.5 to 5 for the full year? You know, the mix and the quarterly activity is gonna, you know, bounce all over the place. So to date, yeah, we had a good quarter, and we expected the second, third quarter to be relatively strong, just based on the mix of leases that we expected to do in those periods. I think we're still on a trajectory on a full year basis to hit our targets. That'll be a function of the mix that happens for the back half of the year.
But I wouldn't read, you know, too much, market movement or anything like that, into what we've achieved thus far. Volume, yeah, you could do that, but, you know, the mark-to-market, no.
Blaine Heck (Analyst)
Great. That's helpful. And then just second question, any update on the casino bid that you can provide?
Marc Holliday (CEO)
No, I don't think anything... I mean, you know, if you're asking about casino timing, then no, I think everything is out there in terms of the deal, you know, the decision that's in front of the governor right now as to whether to expedite the process by calling for the submissions, forming the CAC, and getting past the first stage of the process, which is the hyperlocal stage. We, of course, are strong advocates of expediting.
We think there's a number of reasons not to wanna see the process drag out indefinitely, really because of the jobs that will be produced in the aggregate by three casino licenses will be you know extraordinary and impactful on the construction trades and the industry, in order to get you know what will undoubtedly be $ tens of billions of construction underway. In addition, there's what after they're built, there's a significant number of operating jobs, good-paying you know excellent newly formed jobs that New York City hopefully will be the beneficiary of not just one, but hopefully you know two licenses.
You know, I think there's a lot of reasons also on the taxation front, because there's certainly upfront monies that the state stands to benefit from for the upfront license fees, and then obviously the significant ongoing taxes that'll be projected to be earned by the gaming, you know, operations. So a lot of good reasons to expedite. We're certainly ready. We have our building. The building is built. There's really no displacement issues or interruption issues.
We have a great bid, that will uplift all of Times Square and, also, you know, the city as a whole, because of the way in which we're working with Caesars Rewards to solicit hundreds of coalition supporters into the bid, who will all benefit from the fact that the Times Square, Caesars Palace Casino will be really outward-facing when it comes to things like retail, restaurants, hotels, and entertainment. It's, like, one of the, you know, most compelling, community development, economic development, projects I can think of in New York City. So we're hopeful, to prevail, and we'd like to see the process get going. With that said, I think that there's still a decision pending up in Albany as to when exactly the bids will be called for, and when they are, we'll be ready.
Blaine Heck (Analyst)
Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Paolone of J.P. Morgan. Your line is now open.
Anthony Paolone (Analyst)
Thanks. I'd like to go back to the transaction market and understand the lack of debt out there, but as you mentioned, you all have a balance sheet, partners, and have been able to get debt. So what- I mean, what would levered and unlevered IRRs have to be for you all to put capital out there to do something, you know, on assets that you find attractive? Attractive unlevered in order to, well, for what kind of business? For
Marc Holliday (CEO)
I mean, everything's got, you know, there's obviously we're doing a lot of, we intend to be doing a lot of debt and preferred equity. I think you talked about the growing pipeline, most of which is intended, or all of which is intended for the fund. You know, and, you know, those returns, I think we've talked about in the past, in terms of... Well, you know, I think the market for that product can range anywhere from, you know, low teens to high teens on average, depending on the type of, you know, the type of asset, the location, the credit. It's very hard to, you know, extrapolate from that because every deal is so different, has its own nuances.
But I think, you know, for subordinate lending, I'd feel safe in saying, you know, low teens to high teens is a good spread. And, you know, in other activity, obviously all the fee-based activity that Harry spoke of, that's, you know, it's, it's almost, you know, it's very capital light, so the returns there are extremely strong. And, you know, we'll be committing some dollars in that, you know, towards building out the platform, with additional resources, and in some cases, taking some, capital positions, but that's very high-margin business. You know, the, the expansion of Summit, you know, is a very, you know, high- relatively high-margin business, which is return for having spent years and years building a brand. And, you know, so therefore, it's a, it's a higher return activity.
In terms of, you know, new property acquisitions, we're really development-focused right now, because we see that as being strength in the market. We are looking at doing residential, you know, conversion of office to residential. 750 Third Avenue being the first of that program that we're intending to roll out. We're already in design development. We've retained our professionals and our team. We're making headway on the design and programming of that building. We intend to be in physical construction sometime in early 2025. I think it's gonna be, you know, sort of a. It's gonna set the standard, if you will, in terms of conversions of that vintage of office building in Midtown to something that I think will be a real destination.
You know, the levered returns on a project like that will be, you know, mid to high teens, levered. And that's, I think, you know, for residential, which is very in vogue and attractive these days, I think that's a very compelling return, and that's because, you know, we're going the affordable route in order to be able to do something really good for the city and, produce, you know, what could be 100 units or more of affordable housing in just one project. And, you know, at the same time, being able to generate, returns that we think we'll be able to attract debt and equity capital that we can go forward with. We'll be working on that capitalization throughout the balance of this year.
So probably in December, at investor meeting, we could shed more light to exactly, you know, what those returns look like, and I would think those will be prototypical returns.
Anthony Paolone (Analyst)
Okay. And then just, excuse me. My second question, maybe, just a detail one for Matt. Matt, if my notes are right, I think in Investor Day, the guidance for other income for the year was, I think, $84.5 million, and I think it included $17.5 million for Summit, if I got this right. And so just wondering what that new number might be, because it sounds like part of the guidance bump was, you know, changed there.
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
No. Well, a little part of the guidance bump was other income. You know, we increased guidance by $0.10. I'd say, you know, half of that is fee income, the rest is Summit and NOI. So, you know, that's $0.05 is roughly $3.5 million or so. That's the incremental fee income. So, you know, we're not running that far ahead of our anticipated other income levels, overall. But, you know, there's the potential to do better than that, depending on how special servicing assignments play out over the balance of the year. But, you know, I think we're trending exactly where we expected to be, maybe slightly ahead, and we'll expect to see similar levels, you know, as we head into next year.
Anthony Paolone (Analyst)
Okay, so just make sure I got that right, about a nickel-
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
Yes.
Anthony Paolone (Analyst)
From the other income running a little ahead.
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
Yep.
Anthony Paolone (Analyst)
2-3 cents from Summit and the rest from the core?
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
Correct.
Anthony Paolone (Analyst)
Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
Yep.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Griffin of Citi. Your line is now open.
Michael Griffin (Analyst)
Great, thanks. I wanted to go back and touch on leasing for a minute. Steve, I think you mentioned earlier in the call that, you know, so some of the vacancy you're seeing in the market is those, you know, bottom level, not the tower floors. But if we're led to believe that, you know, particularly Park Avenue is as strong as it's been, wouldn't you expect kind of greater leasing demand to come from those, you know, lower place floors? And then, you know, you mentioned concessions as well. I'm curious if you've seen any change in net effective rents, given it seems like space rents have been increasing, particularly in a lot of properties in that sub-market.
Steven Durels (Executive VP and Director)
Well, when I referred to the vacancy in the, you know, being heavily weighted towards the bottoms of the buildings, I was, I was speaking to the overall market, so that, that was not limited to Park Avenue. That was, you know, all buildings-
... you know, in the Class A sector. Park Avenue overall, if that's what you're really asking, I mean, that has a, you know, current vacancy of less than 9%. So that is a landlord-favorable submarket, which is why you've seen us raise rents in our Park Avenue buildings at 280 Park Avenue, at 245 Park Avenue, at 450 Park Avenue. And I don't see any letup as far as tenant demand for those quality buildings on Park Avenue, irrespective of whether those spaces are located at the top or bottom of the building. Concession-wise, as I spoke to earlier, I haven't seen any change. I, you know, I'm a believer that right now, there's an ability to push rents as opposed to tighten concessions.
With the passage of time, you'll see concessions, you know, get reeled in a little bit, but first thing that'll come off the table will be some of the free rents. But I think 'cause build-out costs for tenants is still, you know, very expensive, that's why the tenants are leaning heavily on the landlords and expect to get TI allowances while they sort of cover it in the form of a higher rent.
Michael Griffin (Analyst)
Great. That makes sense. And then maybe one, Matt, for you, just on the capital plan. Given, I think, where the equity is currently trading, you know, could you look at maybe issuing equity as kind of an arrow in your quiver, or is the plan to kind of maintain the outlook for, you know, your capital needs laid out at Investor Day?
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
I like the analogy to an arrow in the quiver. You know, part of the beauty of being a public company is that it's available to us. You know, we, we don't see, as we play out over the course of 2024, on our base case plan, the need for any equity, because, you know, we're, our balance sheet's in good place, our liquidity is in good place, you know, where the, the plan that we laid out in December is playing out as expected. I think where we might see an opportunity to top up liquidity is if we saw additional investment opportunities. So, you know, we'll keep, we always keep eyes out for stuff like that.
But that's, you know, what it would take for us to really look at, you know, the equity as a source, 'cause it is still relatively expensive.
Michael Griffin (Analyst)
Great. That's it for me. Thanks for the time.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Kamdem of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Ronald Kamdem (Analyst)
Great. Hey, just one quick one for me, just on the same store NOI. Just thinking about the guidance at the Investor Day and comparing where you're trending sort of year to date, that suggests there's quite sort of a big acceleration in the second half of the year. Just my thinking about that, right? That the same store as sort of could be 2, 3 in the second half, and any sort of puts and takes as we're thinking about the second half and going into 2025. Thanks.
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
Yeah, let's, let's, let's clarify that, and I'm sitting next to him, so he's, you know, he can reach me if he needs to. So our guidance for same store NOI was down 1%-2%. A certain CEO next to me said, for, goals and objectives, kind of tongue in cheek, that we would be up 1%-2%. Now, we are trending ahead first half of the year, so that's good. I think to reach the goal, would, you know, be... I'd love to see it. It'd be outstanding, but as we sit today, we're trending a little bit closer to our original guidance as opposed to the objective.
Marc Holliday (CEO)
Yeah, look, those are, those are stretch goals. You know, we, we never hit all of them, nor should we, although we'd like to. But the goal is to hit as many as we can, and I believe in having a target that is, an ambitious target on all levels. When I look at those goals and objectives for the year, midway through the year, we're tracking really well on many of them, most of them, certainly, not all. There was a scenario where we could have been in that one to two range.
Ronald Kamdem (Analyst)
Right.
Marc Holliday (CEO)
There still is a scenario where we can be in that 1-2 range with a big second half of the year. But, you know, it's, it's gonna be pretty tough, and, you know, we may or may not hit that particular goal, but I'm confident we're gonna hit the vast majority of those goals. And, you know, the important thing on this end is to, you know, is to try and, you know, shoot lights out on all these, you know, leases that we do. We do, you know, dozens and dozens a year, probably over 100 a year, actually.
You know, let's see how the second half of the year shapes up, and we're gonna try and push, you know, push the bottom line as much as we can and squeeze down our expenses as much as we can in the second half of the year without sacrificing any quality, in order to try and, you know, make the goal. But, it's too early to say one way or the other, but, you know, I said it, you know, we said it in December-
Ronald Kamdem (Analyst)
Yeah.
Marc Holliday (CEO)
This one was gonna be a push.
Ronald Kamdem (Analyst)
Right. Then my second one was just there is, you know, you guys have a lot of properties where you've been looking to do JVs or redevelopment, right? From One Vanderbilt to 245 Park to Herald Square. Maybe could you just talk about what the sort of level of demand interest from, you know, local US buyers, international buyers, and sort of your conviction in getting a lot of those deals through the finish line. Are you, sort of, are you building conviction? Just any comments there would be helpful.
Matthew J. DiLiberto (CFO)
Yeah, look, the demand from foreign buyers today is very strong. It hits on what I said earlier. There's... The assets we own today, investors believe heavily in the fundamentals of those assets. And, you know, the good news for us is in many cases, as you know, we're working through our plan to extend our debt across all the assets, and that makes assets more attractive for investors to invest. So there's a lot of belief from the foreign market in the fundamentals of our real estate, and, you know, we'll continue to see new joint ventures over the next, you know, few years.
Ronald Kamdem (Analyst)
Thanks so much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. This concludes the question and answer session. I'd now like to turn it back to Marc Holliday for closing remarks.
Marc Holliday (CEO)
Okay. Well, for those still on, thank you for, you know, participating and listening in. We appreciate it. We like the questions. We love the constructive feedback. We'll take it to heart. Everyone, have a great summer, and we'll speak again, in Q3. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.